2013 Baseball Bloggers Alliance Award Ballot

The postseason is a weird time for me. Despite all the baseball going on, I usually don’t write as much. Partly because watching games takes up a larger percentage of my time than it normally does, with multiple must-watch games on most days, but also partly because I really just don’t do reaction writing to individuals games. It just seems too reactionary to what is generally a pretty randomized tournament.

This isn’t to say that I don’t have anything planned about the play-offs, though, so be on the look-out in the next few days. However, until that’s ready, I’m getting a jump start on the offseason awards by posting my ballots for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance elections. In the coming weeks, I’ll be going in depth on each selection, but until then, I’m just making sure that my ballot gets in on time.

Is Albert Pujols on His Way to a Bounce Back Year?

Much has been made of the Angels’ struggles, particularly Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The major signings of the last two off seasons, the pair or them has disappointed. Josh Hamilton’s struggles appear to have started last year, and stem mainly from his declining ability to control the strike zone.

Similar claims were made last season about Pujols after his early struggles. For the fourth straight season, his walk rate and his isolated slugging declined, while his percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone increased.

For his struggles then, it appears he may be on to something now. All of those trends have reversed. Pujols has swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone, and his walk rate (10.9%) is greater than either of the past two seasons (7.8%, 9.4%), although not quite as high as it was back in 2010 or 2009 (14.7%, 16.4%). Still, it’s encouraging to see. Combine that with a .228 batting average on balls in play and you can see why his .237/.319/.407 line might improve, even if his isolated slugging is at an all-time low for him.

Except has Pujols really regained his patience? It’s interesting to note that his strike out percentage (11.6%) is second only to his rookie season as his career high. That seems to go against the earlier statement. Until you break down his numbers further, that is.

Pujols batted in front of Hamilton for most of the season to date, and amassed 6 intentional walks in that time. That seems right for his peak, but the past two seasons, he’s only been intentionally walked 15 and 16 times over a whole season. Pitchers definitely seemed to be pitching around him to face the weakened Hamilton.

Taking out his six intentional walks drops him down to 9 walks on the year total, which, through 132 plate appearances (again, removing those six), puts him at 6.8% walk rate, below even last year’s low. That would also drop his in-base percentage down from .319 to .287. Even halving his intentional walks (to put it more in line with the last two years) leaves him with marks of 8.9% (better than last year, but still below two years ago) and .303.

Overall, it looks like he hasn’t worsened from last year too much, but he’s still not on pace to return to being the Pujols of old.

Why RBIs are Dumb, Reason #3023

Justin Upton is off to a hot start; he's probably the hottest player in baseball right now no matter how you look at it. Whether you take a traditional look (10 home runs in 19 games) or a more advanced one (1.4 WAR, Fangraphs), he more or less leads the league.

But, as Hardball Talk's Matthew Pouliot writes, he still is missing something from his game: RBIs. Upton has only 14 of them, despite his 10 home runs. That seems incredible-is Justin Upton un-clutch?

That's a ridiculous thought. Let's look at Thursday's box score, the first game of a double header and the game where Upton hit number 10 out. Upton batted third-that's unsurprising. Ahead of him in the lineup? Andrelton Simmons and Justin's older brother B.J. They have on-base percentages of .292 and .247 so far, respectively. That won't last, but for the time being, the three batters ahead of Justin in the order are a pitcher and two guys with OBPs below .300.

People have to be on base for you to drive them in.

EDIT: After game two, those figures are now 11 home runs, 1.9 WAR, and 16 RBIs.

Retired Numbers Series: Post-Script 3

Well, I guess I got this one done just in time; the Braves are retiring Chipper Jones’ number in June. 

To be fair, that wasn’t a huge leap of a prediction, but it’s still right. So, with that, my updated predictions for the Braves:

The Marlins Trade Away Everyone, Take Something or Other

So, the Marlins have continued their perpetual fire sale from last summer, sending Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and others to Toronto.

This seems a little like the Red Sox-Dodgers deal, but a little more even. The Blue Jays gave up less than the Dodgers and got more reasonable contracts. None of them will be huge bargains, but they're all probably more or less at market value. Last year, Reyes was worth 4.5 WAR (by Fangraphs), Johnson was worth 3.8, and Buehrle was worth 2.1. With the current estimates of $5 million per WAR on the open market, that comes out to $52 million. The contracts will be back-loaded, but none of the deals looks awful yet, and probably none will become Vernon Wells-level awful.

Really, the worst thing is the implications. Every major free agent the Marlins signed last year is gone, and it looks like the splurging was a shallow marketing lie to try and draw fans. They have shed close to $50 million in payroll in one offseason, and it really just doesn't look like they're serious about winning, only making a slightly larger profit. They also pissed off young face of the franchise Giancarlo Stanton, meaning his days are probably numbered (granted, he may have a few years with his lower at the moment salary). Jeffrey Loria shouldn't be an owner after his debacle in Montreal, and this only further solidifies my view on this.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are solid. Reyes provides a big line-up boost. The rotation, which was held together with tape and bubble gum last year, gets not only Buehrle and Johnson, but also a returning-from-injury Brandon Morrow (and hopefully Ricky Romero gets over whatever happened last year that made him awful). That's a solid top of the rotation. They also still have the rest of the off-season to improve. They might well be a strong contender next year, although I'd like to see what their divisional rivals do first before calling them favorites or anything.

First Awards Season Update

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has now officially announced the winners of this year's awards. I'll be explaining my picks next week when the results of the Baseball Writers election are announced, so for now, I'll merely post the results and my picks.
(My Picks/BBA Picks; matching picks will be listed only once)

AL Reliever of the Year: Fernando Rodney, Rays
NL Reliever of the Year:: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Orioles/Bob Melvin, A's
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson, Nationals
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, Angels
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, Nationals
AL Pitcher of the Year: Justin Verlander, Tigers
NL Pitcher of the Year: R.A. Dickey, Mets
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Buster Posey, Giants

As you can see, nine of my ten picks ended up winning. I expect this to be pretty close to the opposite of what happens in the writers election next week.

2012 Baseball Bloggers Alliance Awards Ballot

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance deadline for voting in the 2012 Awards is today. So, I'm going to post my ballot today to get the vote in, then explain my reasoning later in the season.

I've been busy lately, so I would just like to take this time to say: Go Orioles and Cardinals!*

Cape Cod League Award News

Hyannis Harbor Hawks lefty and Indiana State sophomore Sean Manaea has won both the league's Top Pitcher Award and the Outstanding Pro Prospect Award. Congratulations to him, and good luck over the next year!

As a side note, Fangraphs has already looked and determined that Manaea's chances of making the Majors now sit at around 70%, even a year before the draft.

Kind of Interesting? Maybe?

Well, this is new. The Pirates are letting fans pay to become part of a fan-run think-tank of sorts.

Well, I'm not sure what to think of this. On one hand, it sounds kind of silly. Are they really outsourcing team decisions to fans? (And haven't we seen something like this before? Granted, it worked then; maybe the Pirates are on to something here.) What will that entail? Polls?

"Who should the Pirates sign? Winner will be offered a competitive contract.
_ Zack Greinke
_ Kevin Youkilis
_ Michel Bourn
_ Other"

Retired Number Series: Post-Script 2

Who called it?

This guy right here.

Are AL East Teams Being Cheated From the Playoffs?

As it stands right now, the AL East, the so-called “best division in baseball”, would only get one playoff team. The Orioles and Rays are tied for fourth in the Wild Card right now. Take that, East Coast Bias, right?

Except the AL East probably is the best division in baseball. The Yankees do have the best record in baseball. Against non-AL East teams, the AL East is 175-147, a .543 winning percentage. And that’s the division as a whole. They have a 122-110 record (.526 win percentage) against the other AL divisions. The AL Central is 55-72 (.433) against AL East teams. The AL West has a winning record against them at least 55-50 (.524). However, given all the bad luck Tampa Bay, Boston, and Toronto have had, I think it’s very possible that the AL East may have two or three of the five best teams in the AL. However, since they don’t get any easy in-division teams to beat up on in the unbalanced schedule, their records look a little worse. If so much is riding on the Wild Card spots (and especially since there are two of them), maybe MLB should consider more inter-divisional games.

Environmental Pressures & Player Make-Ups: Stray Thoughts

This is more just a stray thought than a full article. I was reading this piece over at Baseball Nation talking about Zack Greinke and how everyone assumes he wouldn’t be able to handle a big market, but we really have no idea. We really have no idea what causes players to suddenly be good or bad.

For example, there’s a prevalent claim that certain players can’t handle playing in New York. They point to players like A.J. Burnett or Javier Vazquez who failed to live up to expectations when they got there, then turned it around when they left. It’s easy to say things like “They couldn’t handle the pressure”, but is that really the case? Both of them even had at least decent seasons in New York; maybe not their best, but maybe better than you would realize given the narrative. Was it the pressure? Or maybe something else, like a clash with the organization, or personal issues, or any number of things?

Post-Script: 2012 All-Star Roster Corrections

As an add-on to my edited All-Star rosters, after writing this, I decided to see which teams got the most snubs. My system was basically count the number of players each team had on the original rosters, and then on my fixed rosters. The change is listed after each team. “+0” means I changed the roster, but the net total was the same. “No change” means I used the exact same players the real rosters did. Since I already have the final spot accounted for an one injury replacement, my totals should be a little higher overall.

Retired Numbers Series: Post-Script 1

Hardball Talk pointed out something interesting today: J.R. Richard thinks his number should be retired. I found this surprising, not because he's asking for his number retired, but because it isn't already retired. No, seriously; I wrote an entire piece about who the Astros should honor next and went through the whole process apparently thinking they had retired his number. Especially because the Astros have a precedent for cases like this, as seen in the cases of Don Wilson and Jim Umbricht. Richard was incredible in his shortened time with the Astros; why not honor that? Particularly since it wouldn't prove some huge shake-up in their methodology? Richard is being added to the Walk of Fame tonight; it's time they took it all the way.

Some Idle Thoughts on Steroids

So, I was reading Tom Verducci’s article over at Sports Illustrated, which was a little unusual. Don’t get me wrong, Verducci is a great writer. However, his writing about steroids usually comes off a little too overly-moralizing. This piece, which I decided to read after seeing the praise given to it at Hard Ball Talk, is about a more-or-less career minor leaguer, Dan Naulty, who used, and the darker moments of his life and career (not all of them are steroid-related). It is interesting, I guess, if nothing else. There are a few issues and thoughts I have that I want to address, though.

Bud Selig Thinks Instant Replay Is Some Newfangled Passing Fad, Or Something

Bud Selig apparently doesn’t think replay is that pressing, because no one he talks to has been pushing him for it.

Now, I know what everyone is thinking: this is the part where I virulently attack Bud Selig for having his head up a place where the sun don’t shine. (Greenland in winter, to be specific. If you were wondering.) However, I think he absolutely definitely has a point. Nobody wants replay in baseball. If they do, they have completely, totally silent on it. I can’t remember the last time I saw an article talking about how baseball needed instant replay. Googling “instant replay” and “baseball” yields absolutely no results. Besides, bad calls in baseball never happen. Ever. There’s definitely not any sort of solution that would get the calls right in a timely fashion, like a fifth umpire in the booth reviewing every play and signaling to the field if he notices an easily-fixable mistake.

And in any case, part of what I like about the game of baseball is that it’s like a three-way struggle between two teams and a third party that’s supposed to be an impartial arbitrator. It reminds me of The Iliad, what with the two warring sides and the Greek gods siding with one or the other to change what happens. Isn’t that why we have umpires in the first place? To offer a third choice to root for in the event that you don’t like either team playing?

On an unrelated note, this confirms my longtime suspicion that Bud Selig interacts entirely with imaginary friends.

Thoughts on Albert Pujols to the Angels

Well, that didn't happen at all the way I thought it would.

It's been weird; I heard about it minutes after it happened, but didn't get a chance to stop what I was doing and write something until now. Really, I didn't even get a chance to reflect on it until now.

First, I was more expecting the Marlins to offer just plain stupid trump offer. Even more than that, though,  I wasn't expecting a just plain stupid trump offer. I was more or less expecting the Cardinals to overpay for sentimental reasons to bring back Pujols, and the $220 million dollar price tag would hurt, but we'd get over it, and at least there would be the memories to comfort Cardinal fans during the decline years of the contract. Instead, the Angels jumped in out of nowhere to sign him away.

I don't really begrudge Pujols for leaving, or the Cardinals for not upping their offer. Really, this isn't meant to be a bitter piece.

First, I would like thank Albert for his eleven years as a Cardinals. Nothing can take away those three MVP years, or two World Series trophies, or anything else. I still can't wait to see number 5 retired and Albert in Cooperstown with a St. Louis hat (and both will come, eventually).

Next, I would like to thank the Cardinals front office for sticking to their plan and not upping their offer to Pujols. The deal they offered was already about as long as I could have stomached; I think any longer or bigger would have actually crippled the team (and, as an optimist, I didn't even think a $220 million/10 year deal would ruin the team's chances in the future...). So kudos to them.

(Also, in a weird way, I would like to thank the Angels. They saved us $220 million dollars, and I'm sure there will be some humor ten years from now when they're paying a 42-year-old first baseman $26 million+ per year. Essentially, they're paying him whatever we owed him from his time in St. Louis.)

Ron Santo Elected to Hall of Fame

It's long overdue, but Ron Santo has finally made the Hall of Fame. It's a shame it took until after his death for it to happen, but at least he's finally in.

It's good to see another third baseman make the Hall, too. The position has long been underrepresented.

World Series, Game 6

The Platoon Advantage has an interesting piece on the worst World Series winners, and speculates that the Cardinals (if they win) could find their way onto the list. Granted, I can see them going on the list, but somewhere towards the bottom; I've been meaning to write an article defending them, and it will come, but I've been very busy lately (yes, still).

Let me just say, though, that I hope the Cardinals win tonight on a walk-off, preferably in extra innings. Not only because I'm a Cardinals fan, but also because 1) I think a Game 7 will cement the 2011 World Series' place among the greatest; and 2) Every one of the first six games will be great in different ways. Game 1 saw a classic back-and-forth game with pinch-hit heroics. Game 2 saw an even better pitchers' duel capped off with an amazing comeback. Game 3 saw a high-offense game with an incredible hitting performance from Albert Pujols. Game 4 saw an amazing pitching performance from Derek Holland. Game 5 saw a close strategic match-up between the managers (granted, that one was lackluster as far as strategic match-ups go, but it still brought a different dimension to the Series).

The only problem is, if Game 6 is in fact a walk-off or extra innings win, what does that leave for Game 7?

K-Rod to Brewers: One Paragraph Knee-Jerk Reaction

Well, it seems Francisco Rodriguez will be leaving the New York Mets for the more beer-and-cheese laden pastures of Milwaukee. I would do one of my Knee-Jerk Reaction pieces on this move if I wasn't totally bogged down with writing right now (you'll see what I mean in a bit). So, for now, I will leave my thoughts on the Brewers acquiring a $17.5 million set-up man for John Axford to "LOL wut?"