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    Showing posts with label Josh Willingham. Show all posts
    Showing posts with label Josh Willingham. Show all posts

    Sunday, January 27, 2013

    The Replacement Team: What's the Most Balanced Playoff Team Possible?

    So, we’ve reached that point in the offseason; there’s not a ton going on, so I figured now would be as good a time as any to look at something I’ve been wondering for a while now: What’s the most underwhelming playoff team you could construct?

    By this, I mean, could you build a playoff-caliber roster if every single player was just above average? And what would that roster look like. This evolved from an thought I had a while ago: what if you just had a full roster of starter level players? And team of just replacement-level players (0 WAR) would be expected to win around 43 games*. So, a 25-man roster of 2 WAR players, or basic starter level, should have 50 WAR, and thereby, 93-ish wins.

    *I’ve heard estimates ranging from 40 to 50. Based on Fangraphs’ WAR data from 2012, the average team won 43.3 more games than their Wins Above Replacement. This number will vary a little from year to year, but the neighborhood of 43-45 Wins as a baseline is a good estimate if you don’t feel like calculating it out.

    The problem with that is you would need 2 Win relievers and bench players. That’s not really practical; if you can get 2 Wins in limited bench time like that, you’re therefore not starter level. If you are starter level, you won’t get to 2 WAR in limited playing time.