Retired Number Quiz Series: The American League Central

Following the AL East (Quiz, Article) and NL East (Quiz, Article), we continue westward, today tackling the American League Central’s five teams. I personally think this is the hardest one of the batch, although maybe that’s just because the ALC has historically been the division I’ve followed the least closely (for whatever reason). Still, there is some logic to that too, I think: the two Central divisions are both four-fifths original-sixteen teams teams (every other division has at least two expansion teams), and their only newer teams were still some of the older ones at that (the Brewers and Royals both date back to 1969, the third wave of expansion). But even on top of that, I think the AL Central teams have generally felt just a little more thorough in their number retirements than other teams? However you’d quantify that.

If you’re ready, you can take the quiz HERE before reading on to learn more about the specific players involved. Remember that to make the quiz, players must have worn a uniform number on the team question for at least three questions (that actually came up a lot in this division, but more on that in the article…). And for those hunting bonus answers, your goal this time is four Minnesota Twins players (plus four more players who didn't reach the three-year minimum, spread across the Indians, White Sox, and Twins-Senators, although those answers are a little more difficult).

Good luck!


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The 2020 Astros Look to Follow a Tradition of Slow-Starting Pennant Winners

(Also up over at The Crawfish Boxes)

One thing I mentioned in my ALCS Prediction is that, while the Rays had a better 2020 season than the Astros, and are more than likely the better team this year, that doesn’t quite mean as much as it seems. Obviously, short series in baseball are already much more random than they are in other sports (see, for instance, the 2006, 83-win Cardinals upsetting teams with 88, 97, and 95 wins). But the other part of the issue is that the Astros likely aren’t as bad as their record indicated, and the shortened season likely helps obscure that. 

Yes, the Astros finished the abbreviated 2020 season with a losing record, at 29-31. On the other hand, there’s a reason most seasons go longer than 60 games. In fact, if they win the ALCS, the Astros would make for the third straight pennant winner who didn’t have a winning record through the first 60 games of the season, after the 2019 Nationals and 2018 Dodgers.

In fact, since 2000, seven out of the forty teams to appear in the World Series carried a .500 record or worse at the 60-game mark, with a quarter of the 2010s pennant winners in that club. I wanted to look a little more at that bunch of teams, and how their full season unfolded for a sense of what might have been. Those teams in question are (all stats from Baseball-Reference):

Year         Team             W L     Final W Final L WS Result

2019         Nationals   27 33     93         69         W

2018         Dodgers       30 30     92         71         L

2014         Royals        29 31     89         73         L

2012         Tigers         28 32     88         74         L

2007         Rockies       29 31     90         73         L

2005         Astros        25 35     89         73         L

2003         Marlins        27 33     91        71        W

The actual World Series results of this group aren’t necessarily ideal, but then again, two World Series wins in seven chances is better than not making it at all. Either way, the 2020 Astros are pretty comfortably within this group’s range, well ahead of the 25-35 2005 Astros. And they’re tied for second with the 2014 Royals and 2007 Rockies, and just a hair behind the 2018 Dodgers, who needed a 4-game win streak just to reach .500. Those Dodgers would immediately lose their next game, and they had only one day above .500 until game 63.

Which brings me to the next question: what did the path to the pennant look like for those teams? And how does this year’s Astros team compare? 

More Articles!

Another week, another game recap! Being on a winning streak is fun!

And here's a new piece comparing the strength of the remaining schedules for the AL West.

Is Tanking Still the Best Strategy for Teams to Get Ahead?

With the season about to start, one thing that struck me about this upcoming year when previewing it (and especially following the long, strange postseason that followed it) is how many teams are tanking. This especially became apparent when I was writing my most recent article and looking over last year’s last place teams. By my count, at least seven different teams (the White Sox, Tigers, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, and Padres) who are in various stages of a complete tear-down.

Some of them are further along in the process than others, to the point where several of them even made big signings this winter. But overall, these teams all stripped down their rosters recently in the hopes of rebuilding into a superteam in the near future, and almost all of them make no expectations about being able to compete for the playoffs in 2018.

In some ways, it’s not hard to see why they would decide to do that, with the last two World Series winners having gone through the process themselves. But for as good as that track record looks, I’m a little skeptical that it’ll work for all of these teams. Obviously, they won’t all win the World Series like the Cubs and Astros; that’s the absolute best case scenario, and since only one team a year does that well, it’s likely most of those teams won’t win a World Series. But I’m even not sure all or even most of those teams will see notable turnarounds, because I think the number of teams tanking has an adverse effect on the teams doing said tanking.

Basically, it comes down to the concepts behind Moneyball. While the term was for a long time understood to mean “using advanced statistics, looking for players that take a walk, and drafting safer, college pitchers”, that’s not really accurate. As many before me have noted, Moneyball is actually about looking for undervalued attributes in baseball; in layman’s terms, zigging when others are zagging. At the time, for the early-to-mid-2000s A’s and Red Sox, it was those things. For the late 2000s Rays, it was stockpiling young draft picks through the old draft system and locking up young players, among other things. For the recent Royals, it was a focus on defense and the bullpen when others had moved away from those things. And for the Cubs and Astros, it was tanking.

2014 Predictions: AL Central

This is a continuation of my series from the other day predicting the 2014 season. Here’s the AL East article for those who missed it. Now, let’s get right into the AL Central predictions.

AL Central
Tigers-93 Wins/99 Pythagorean Wins (based on run differential)
Indians-92/90
Royals-86/87
Twins-66/63
White Sox-63/67

Breaking Down This Year's 50 Best Not in the Hall: Which Team Gets Snubbed the Most?

I may as well continue with the Hall of Fame theme I have going on. One thing that I always wonder when filling out my 50 Best Players in the Hall of Fame ballot is if there’s any noticeable bias in who gets snubbed from the Hall. Like, whether there’s a specific position that the voters overlook, or if certain teams get passed over more often than others. I guess it’s also possible it’s my bias, but I’d like to think I’m objective in filling this out.

Anyway, if you need refreshing, here’s the selection of 50 Players I ended up going with this year. I wanted a quick number to look at for Hall worthiness, so I went with Adam Darowski’s Hall Ratings, since 1) that’s exactly what they were designed for, and 2) he includes breakdowns of how much of a player’s Hall Rating came in each season, with each team in total, and so on.

First, we have the straight number of players each franchise had on the list:

Knee-Jerk Reactions: Justin Verlander Tops Adam Wainwright's Mega-Extension

Adam Wainwright isn’t the only ace to sign a massive extension this week; he’s not even the one with the biggest deal now. Justin Verlander just signed the largest deal for a pitcher in history, signing through 2019 for $180 million. He was already under contract through 2014 with $40 million left on his deal, so this is more a $140 million over 5 year set up (with an $22 million option for 2020). How does it compare to Wainwright’s, or the rest of the league?

2013 Predictions: AL Central

Despite producing the AL pennant winner, the AL Central was pretty clearly the weakest division in baseball last season. It was the only division without a 90-game winner, and it had the lowest average record despite the only two 100-game losers both playing in the NL Central. And even then, one of those two teams (the Astros, of course) moved to the AL West, leaving the AL Central the far and away favorite for “worst team in the majors”.

And yet, the AL Central may again produce the AL Pennant winner. If you had to bet on any one team to make the World Series, the safest bet is usually to go with the team with the easiest path to the playoffs. Whether that’s good or not, it means the AL Central deserves as much attention as any other division. Do they actually deserve it this year though?

The World Series, Melky Cabrera, and Other Thoughts

I'm not sure how much I have to add to this discussion, but Dan Szymborski has an interesting article up over at ESPN (insider) today. He covers most of the arguments, but his basic point is that Melky Cabrera is again eligible to play baseball, and the Giants are still not using him in the World Series, despite keeping players like Aubrey Huff, Gregor Blanco, and Joaquin Arias on the roster.

Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, the Triple Crown, and Other Early AL MVP Thoughts

I wanted to write something about the AL MVP race. As you probably know, Miguel Cabrera hit his 42nd home run of the year yesterday, tying him with Josh Hamilton. With his .331 average (8 points above Mike Trout) and 133 RBI (10 ahead of Hamilton), he now stands with a very realistic shot at the Triple Crown with 10 games left.

Because of that, some people have begun advocating for him to win the MVP Awards based on the Triple Crown instant-win clause which was apparently secretly added to the voting criterion after Ted Williams’ 1947 season (his second time losing the MVP in a Triple Crown season, actually).

Retired Numbers Series: Detroit Tigers

Picking what team to do next for the Retired Number Series is something of a challenge now. I’m always looking for interesting trivia or unusual tidbits to sway me towards one team or another. In the case of the Tigers, part of what caught my attention was a recent article from Beyond the Boxscore where the Tigers were found, by at least one measure, to be the most snubbed in terms of Hall of Fame voting.

The Tigers have stuck mostly to retiring Hall of Famers’ numbers (with one major exception); therefore, there would be a good chance that several Tiger legends are being snubbed as far getting their numbers retired. Are there, and, if so, who are they?