Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Hitters, 2019 Edition

Once again, it’s that time of the offseason where I dive into the best young players in the game and determine which ones are on a pace to make Cooperstown. As usual, I’ll be starting today with the position players.

To give you a refresher on the process: I begin by looking at every Hall of Famer, then finding the median career Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference version) by age for the group. Then, I look at how many players in history have matched or bettered that WAR total through that same age. From there, I take a simple percentage of how many players made the Hall out of the total set of players who reached the median WAR (removing players still on the ballot or not yet eligible for Cooperstown). While it doesn’t account for things like eventual Veterans Committee selections, or give us a great idea of which below-median players will eventually be elected, it does give us surprisingly strong odds for the best of the best, and way earlier than most people expect.

So, with the preamble out of the way, let’s dive right in:

2018 World Series Trivia: Best Active Players Without a World Series

Once again, it's time for my yearly post-World Series Sporcle Quiz, "Can You Name the Best Active Players Without a World Series", now updated to account for the newly-crowned champs, the 2018 Red Sox. If you want to play the quiz blind, follow that link. I have a few mildly spoiler-filled comments after the break once you're finished.

Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Hitters, 2017 Edition

This year is the fifth anniversary of my annual “Predicting Future Hall of Famers” project (see the past four years here), so I don’t know how much of an introduction is necessary. Let’s just jump right into the methodology refresher so that we can move on to the active players on pace, shall we?

Basically, I’m looking at how the Hall’s elected players (hitters today, pitchers next) have historically looked at each age en route to their eventual election into the Hall of Fame. I use Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference’s version, for the sake of research) due to its high correlation to Hall election, and look at how each hitter looked, career-total-wise, each year. I pick out the median as a baseline, then look at what percentage of players with the median WAR at that age eventually got into the Hall.

To put concrete numbers on this, say that there were 99 hiters in the Hall of Fame, and the 50th most WAR at the age of 28 was 30. I would then see how many total players in history had 30 WAR at 28, then take a percentage of players in the Hall out of total players (removing players still on the ballot or not yet eligible, as their status is still up in the air). So if there were 100 players with 30 WAR at 28, we’d say there was a 50% chance of a player at the Hall median for WAR at age 28 eventually getting elected. It’s a little simple and crude, but it’s a good visualization of how historic Hall of Fame careers have looked.

And of course, the standard disclaimers: this is based entirely on precedent, which is a fickle thing in Hall voting. Good, deserving players get snubbed all the time from Cooperstown. Other times they have to wait years before the Veterans Committee before they get in. On the flip side, by definition, half of the players in the Hall of Fame were below the median, so not hitting the mark is not a death sentence for their eventual enshrinement. This is just to pick out the strongest cases and assign rough odds.

Good, now, with all that out of the way, let’s see who all is absolutely, totally, 100% going to get elected on the first ballot 20 years from now:

Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Hitters, 2016 Edition

It’s long been a tradition here at Hot Corner Harbor to look at which active players might be on pace for the Hall of Fame. I’ve been busy with various things the past few months, but I really wanted to do my yearly update to the series before the 2016 season got under way. To keep it simple, I’m going to reuse my numbers from last year and give a quick refresher on my system; feel free to check previous year’s editions if you want a more in-depth explanation.

Essentially, I’m looking at how many Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference version) all Hall of Fame hitters had accumulated at each age and picked the median. Then, to give some context, I found what percentage of players at that mark or higher went on to be inducted into Cooperstown (accounting for players still on the ballot and such). This isn’t to say these players will or won’t make Cooperstown; by definition, half of all Hall of Famers didn’t. And hitting these marks is no guarantee; players may drop off, or they may not and Hall voters may not choose to recognize them anyway. This is just to get a rough guide to what a Hall of Fame career might look like, and to see who is on pace.

2014 All-Star Roster Corrections, American League

And now, it’s time for one of my favorite traditions: adopting a faux superior tone to criticize the All-Star Rosters!  But, it looks like I’m continuing last year’s downward trend in condescension; few of the picks this year made me sigh and shake my head in disbelief, like most of Bud Selig’s pet projects. For whatever reason, the All-Star Game rosters are just getting better and better. Maybe people take the job more seriously now that something is on the line? Maybe sites like Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs are disseminating information to voters better than ever before? Maybe Nate Silver implanted a chip into Bud Selig’s ear that whispers changes to the All-Star roster into his ear before they’re announced? Who knows!

Either way, there are still a few nits I would pick if I were setting the rosters myself, and if there’s one thing that I love, it’s discussing the minor details of a roster for a one-off exhibition game. So, let’s get down to business!

Could a Rangers-Cardinals Blockbuster Work?

It’s been interesting to follow the off seasons of the Rangers and Cardinals, especially as a comparison. Both have been relatively quiet (although the Rangers were quieter a few weeks ago), but for different reasons.

The Rangers have been going after numerous players and falling short, being unable to appease the Diamondbacks’ demands for Justin Upton, then missing on free agents Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton. The Cardinals have made few moves also, but more due to planning to stand pat, so as to hold on to both prospects and current players. However, there are still areas for improvement there.

The two might be able to help each other make major upgrades, if they’re both willing to gamble. The Cardinals only major hole in the line-up is the middle infield (between an oft-injured Rafael Furcal and a cast of call-ups), while the Rangers have two shortstops and a second baseman. Could the two match-up?