Why Steroid Rumors Against Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza Are TotallyBaseless (Beyond the Obvious...)

This is more of a short collection of my thoughts as we lead up to the Hall of Fame announcements, to refer to this year and in future Hall elections. Unfortunately, It will probably take future elections. Baseball Think Factory’s Ballot Collecting Gizmo has Mike Piazza at 79.3% and Jeff Bagwell at 73.9% as we speak, and generally speaking, every player sees their percentage drop due to writers who don’t reveal their ballot. So while Piazza barely clears the 75% cutoff, he probably won’t make it this year, especially with four candidates ahead of him (last year, he went from 67.9% all the way down to 62.2%, and a drop off that size this year would leave him just over 73%). Bagwell, being further back, will almost certainly need to wait until next year.

This is not due to a lack of worthiness on their part; the fault lies totally on the electorate. Both are easily among the top ten at their positions all-time, and arguably among the top five. Bagwell hit 449 home runs, stole 202 bases and fell just shy of posting a .300/.400/.500 career batting line (he hit .297/.408/.540). His career weighted Runs Created+ (like OPS+, but properly weights OBP and slugging) is 149, and is fifth among first basemen with over 8000 plate appearances, and he was by most measures a good fielder. Piazza was the best hitting catcher ever. The only qualified catcher with a higher wRC+ is Buster Posey at 141, and he still hasn’t entered his decline phase; he’s played in a third as many games as Piazza.

The five reasons for not voting for them, as I can tell, are as follows:

1) Not understanding how to evaluate baseball players

2) Not understanding what the Hall’s standards are

3) Running out of space on the ballot (rather justified, especially given this year)

4) Imposing an artificial limit on your ballot beyond the existing ten-man limit (which is not at all justified, especially given this year); or

5) Penalizing them for imagined PED use

The latter is the most irritating. The perception is that, as sluggers, Piazza and Bagwell are more likely to have been taking steroids. They’ve never been linked to them in any official capacity, though. And on top of that, good luck finding any consistency in characteristics among players busted for taking steroids. Even among the batters, there’s no common link, with almost as many slap hitters as sluggers.

But both have additional “strikes” against them, in the mind of voters; both are seen to have “become” power hitters.  Even if we ignore the wide range of results we’ve seen in players taking steroids, in both cases, there are plenty of other factors in play.

PEDs and Lifetime Bans

I've already commented on Biogenesis stuff, so I'll keep this brief. This latest round of suspensions has brought about new calls for tougher punishments and comparisons to gambling's lifetime ban. I've been wanting to write my thoughts on this for some time, and I finally did in response to Grant Brisbee's piece over at Baseball Nation. For convenience, I'm reposting it here.

With gambling, the motive is unclear. But I would imagine it’s much easier to lose on purpose than win on purpose, making "lose on purpose" the more likely outcome-baseball is already a game with a lot of failure, and having 1/9 of your chances to actually succeed give up can be devastating to your chances. That’s not to say that players would only bet on themselves to lose, but it’s an option. If one side were trying to lose, it would be a scripted event, not a sport, and therefore, not baseball. 

With steroids, there’s a very clear motive: play better. That doesn’t challenge the integrity of the event occurring nearly as much; it’s still a competition, at least. 

And really, how is that motive any different than those for scuffing a ball, or corking a bat, or taking amphetamines, or any other number of things players have done? And yet, no one is calling for a lifetime ban for any of those. Why? You can say it’s due to how successful it is, as that doesn’t change the intent. We charge murder the same, whether it’s committed with a knife or a spoon (apologies for jumping to murder as a comparison, but I like that video). 

And really, that’s the other problem. Baseball has never tried to figure out what exactly steroids did. Let’s talk hypothetical-maybe they turn out to be as effective as a corked bat. The last two players suspended for bat corking got eight game suspensions. Steroids already get 50. Most independent studies are struggling to even prove that steroids do what we think they do. You can point to the home runs by Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa as proof, but at the same time, I can point to Neifi Perez or Freddy Galvis or Francisco Cervelli or the dozens of minor leaguers who have tested positive. And at the same time, amphetamines and other stimulants only draw a 25 game ban, and we have links from everyone from Willie Mays to Mickey Mantle to Hank Aaron taking those. A handful of anecdotes aren’t proof of anything. Do steroids help? Maybe. Are they two times worse than amphetamines? Maybe, although it’s even less clear. Are they infinitely worse to justify a lifetime ban? That seems like quite a leap. 

Maybe if people began calling for all forms of cheating to automatically draw lifetime bans, I could see it, but that seems both unlikely and overly-harsh.

Thoughts on Biogenesis and PED-Users Becoming All-Stars

In case you haven’t heard, the big news in baseball this week is the Biogenesis suspensions. After investigating the Florida-based clinic, MLB came up with a list of fourteen players to suspend, plus a few other names cleared.

Ryan Braun was suspended a few weeks ago. Monday saw the suspensions of Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta, Everth Cabrera, Antonio Bastardo, Jesus Montero, Francisco Cervelli, Jordany Valdespin, Fautino De Los Santos, Jordan Norberto, Cesar Puello, Fernando Martinez, and Sergio Escalona. In addition to those thirteen, Alex Rodriguez is appealing his own suspension (which, for some reason, is three to four times harsher than every other player involved, but that’s another can of worms), while Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, and Yasmani Grandal were all cleared of additional wrongdoing (all three were given suspensions last year).

Everyone likes to focus on Rodriguez and Braun, as they are the biggest names involved. Even Cruz and Peralta are drawing attention, thanks to playing key roles on pennant teams. However, I think the other names on the list are what make it interesting.

I’m going to be honest, there were players on this list that I have never heard of, and I consider myself a passionate baseball fan. I just somehow had never come across Jordan Norberto, Sergio Escalona, or Cesar Puello until their names turned up. That made me think, though.

The Platoon Advantage Covers Brady Anderson

Bill Parker over at The Platoon Advantage has a good piece on Brady Anderson today. I'm giving it special mention here because this is more or less something I've wanted to write for a long time. As an Orioles fan, I've wanted to write this in defense of Anderson numerous times, but it's very rarely relevant (no idea why, he's only been out of baseball for over a decade). But Bill hits all of the major issues.

And really, this isn't just for Brady Anderson. This goes for anyone who randomly gets dragged into the steroid argument, especially players seen as one year wonders (Luis Gonzalez also comes to mind). Not only is the argument that steroids caused their good season questionable, but it ignores not just baseball history (which is littered with players with one good season), but also reality (in which there is nothing connecting these players to steroids any more than any number of other players), as well as logic (Why would players who supposedly benefitted so greatly from a season of steroids just stop if they were in fact the cause?)

Melky Cabrera Tests Positive for Testosterone: What Does This Mean, and What Can We Learn?

Well, Melky Cabrera is suspended for 50 games following a positive test for testosterone. This news carries several different implications.

First, there the immediate impact on the games. The Giants are currently in a tie for first in the NL West and half a game out of the Wild Card. Now, they’re without one of their top hitters for the rest of the season. That will obviously hurt for the stretch run. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, Braves, Diamondbacks, and their fans probably celebrated a bit at news about a competitor getting weaker (but felt awful afterwards, if that makes it any better).

The Roger Clemens Verdict, Steroids, and the Hall of Fame

Roger Clemens was found not guilty of perjury the other day. I guess it’s big legal news, although I don’t follow the legal news circuit nearly as closely as I follow the baseball news circuit. It’s kind of big baseball news, so I feel like it’s worth mentioning here.

Really, it’s kind of interesting, for the sake of the Hall, even if I can’t quite determine what it means. Literally, it means there isn’t enough evidence present at the moment to prove Roger Clemens used steroids in a court of law. You can say that about a lot of guys, though; Jeff Bagwell has been Hall worthy since he hit the ballot, yet angry plagerists/voters don’t seem to care other than to use him as the test “we’ll just wait-and-see” case for players.

I guess you can continue believing Clemens used steroids, too, if you want. I can’t stop you or anything. But I would like to point out:

Some Idle Thoughts on Steroids

So, I was reading Tom Verducci’s article over at Sports Illustrated, which was a little unusual. Don’t get me wrong, Verducci is a great writer. However, his writing about steroids usually comes off a little too overly-moralizing. This piece, which I decided to read after seeing the praise given to it at Hard Ball Talk, is about a more-or-less career minor leaguer, Dan Naulty, who used, and the darker moments of his life and career (not all of them are steroid-related). It is interesting, I guess, if nothing else. There are a few issues and thoughts I have that I want to address, though.

Some Long Overdue Thoughts on the Ryan Braun Case

I didn’t ever write about Ryan Braun’s suspension proceedings when they happened, so now looks like the time to bring them up. They issue is back in the news, either way.

Really, my views on the subject can best be summed up thusly: it was a large waste of time. We really don’t have any better of an idea of whether Braun tested positive than we did before the news leaked, and it brought up numerous issues with MLB.

A Late Scorecasting Mini-Review

Okay, I’m back from a trip, and can resume regular updates now. Over time, though, hopefully more of my old articles will find their way to Hot Corner Harbor. Anyway, on to today’s main article.