Reconsidering Johnny Damon for the Hall of Fame

When I was looking over the stats for my recent Hall of Fame ballot article, an unexpected player gave me pause. I had never really considered Johnny Damon a Hall of Famer, or even particularly close. But as it turns out, it’s a lot easier for me to envision a case for him than I thought.

But first, a short diversion, because there’s a second part to this that may have changed my thinking. I also recently covered the paucity of Hall inductees at third base, particularly in comparison to the other positions. If you remember from that piece, third base (and catcher) are pretty underrepresented in Cooperstown, but there’s some other weirdness afoot as well. Center field just happens to be one of the locations of that other weirdness.

It’s not strikingly obvious though, like third base is. It’s small stuff that adds up. For example, they have the third fewest representatives in the Hall at just nineteen (third base and catcher had thirteen and fifteen, respectively), while every other position sits at 20 or more. If you use JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s system for studying Hall-worthiness across positions, center fielders have the second highest average JAWS after right field. In my article from last time, I noted that center also tied with third base for the most not-elected “second tier” players (check that earlier link for a fuller explanation). And when I measured out the number of players at each position who hit 60 and 50 WAR without making the Hall, center field had the second and third highest percentages, respectively.

On top of all of that, though, was their “middle”; when I divided inducted Hall of Famers at each position into upper, middle, and lower thirds based on WAR, the top of the “middle” third for center field was right in line with everyone else’s, at 66.5. But the lower end of that same middle third was just 49.5, closer to catchers (who see lower WAR totals due to less playing time) than any of the other positions, who sit in the mid-50s for the most part.

Paul Konerko, 500 Home Runs, and the Hall of Fame

Now, on the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of similarities between Paul Konerko and Johnny Damon. Damon is a 38-year old former outfielder who now mostly plays DH; in his prime, he could run and get on base pretty well, although he was never best in the league. He couldn’t find a job prior to the season, but he has since picked up a minor league contract with the Indians after bouncing around for the past few seasons.

Konerko is more or less the exact opposite. He started out as a power-hitting catcher, before the Dodgers realized he wasn’t particularly great at it. He was a well-regarded prospect for L.A. and then Cincinnati before finally winding up with the White Sox in 1999. Since then, he’s more or less been their starting first baseman, as he will likely be through at least 2013.

Potential Deal Reaction: Johnny Damon to Orioles

Apparently, the Orioles are looking at Johnny Damon. I've seen some mixed reactions to this, and, as an Orioles fan, I feel the need to defend it. Not because the front office is perfect or anything; just because it's not necessarily a bad move.

It's easy to compare this to the Vladimir Guerrero signing last year, which went rather poorly. I don't think that's quite fair, though. Last year, the corner spots were rather crowded:
1B: Derrek Lee/Mark Reynolds
3B: Mark Reynolds/Josh Bell
LF: Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold
(RF: Nick Markakis)
DH: Vladimir Guerrero/Luke Scott/Mark Reynolds

Re-Run: Future Hall of Fame, Center Fielders

History is littered with great center fielders, almost none of which have made the Hall of Fame. Only seven center fielders have made it to Cooperstown via the traditional method (election by the Baseball Writers’ Association). Two of those elected are Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker, who were elected in the first and second votes ever taken, respectively. So, from the Hall’s third election on, only five center fielders have been voted in in the standard way. After third base, center field may be the most underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame.

Currently, the position of Center Field is in something of a flux. There seems to be a slight “new guard/old guard” movement going on. As I compiled a list of players to cover, I noticed a definite split in age groups; players in their mid-to-late 30s with a good shot at enshrinement in Cooperstown, and players in their early twenties with their best years likely ahead. In between that, there are some good players, but no one in the group remotely resembles anything near a Hall of Fame candidate (if you would like to argue that, say, Marlon Byrd or Aaron Rowand is a Hall of Fame candidate, feel free, but don’t expect me to take you seriously).

Admittedly, several recently retired center fielders have cases for election. Recent retiree Ken Griffey Jr. looks like a first-ballot lock. Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams have both retired recently, and may be better than you realize (especially in Lofton’s case). However, I decided to only cover current players, and so I must leave these players out.