Retired Number Quiz Series: The National League East

Part two of my retired number quizzes is out, this one featuring the NL East teams! The quiz can be found here, with an article explaining the results (and including spoilers) included after the break. If you’re looking for part one, featuring the AL East teams, the quiz can be found here and the article can be found here.

(Also, like last time, players must have worn a uniform on said team for three or more seasons to qualify. And as far as bonus answers go, for those searching, the Braves and Nationals each have three focusing on their days in Atlanta and Washington, respectively.

Good luck!



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The 2020 Astros Look to Follow a Tradition of Slow-Starting Pennant Winners

(Also up over at The Crawfish Boxes)

One thing I mentioned in my ALCS Prediction is that, while the Rays had a better 2020 season than the Astros, and are more than likely the better team this year, that doesn’t quite mean as much as it seems. Obviously, short series in baseball are already much more random than they are in other sports (see, for instance, the 2006, 83-win Cardinals upsetting teams with 88, 97, and 95 wins). But the other part of the issue is that the Astros likely aren’t as bad as their record indicated, and the shortened season likely helps obscure that. 

Yes, the Astros finished the abbreviated 2020 season with a losing record, at 29-31. On the other hand, there’s a reason most seasons go longer than 60 games. In fact, if they win the ALCS, the Astros would make for the third straight pennant winner who didn’t have a winning record through the first 60 games of the season, after the 2019 Nationals and 2018 Dodgers.

In fact, since 2000, seven out of the forty teams to appear in the World Series carried a .500 record or worse at the 60-game mark, with a quarter of the 2010s pennant winners in that club. I wanted to look a little more at that bunch of teams, and how their full season unfolded for a sense of what might have been. Those teams in question are (all stats from Baseball-Reference):

Year         Team             W L     Final W Final L WS Result

2019         Nationals   27 33     93         69         W

2018         Dodgers       30 30     92         71         L

2014         Royals        29 31     89         73         L

2012         Tigers         28 32     88         74         L

2007         Rockies       29 31     90         73         L

2005         Astros        25 35     89         73         L

2003         Marlins        27 33     91        71        W

The actual World Series results of this group aren’t necessarily ideal, but then again, two World Series wins in seven chances is better than not making it at all. Either way, the 2020 Astros are pretty comfortably within this group’s range, well ahead of the 25-35 2005 Astros. And they’re tied for second with the 2014 Royals and 2007 Rockies, and just a hair behind the 2018 Dodgers, who needed a 4-game win streak just to reach .500. Those Dodgers would immediately lose their next game, and they had only one day above .500 until game 63.

Which brings me to the next question: what did the path to the pennant look like for those teams? And how does this year’s Astros team compare? 

What Have the Marlins Gotten Back from All of Their Trades?

ESPN noted that, following the J.T. Realmuto trade, 23 of the Marlins’ top 25 players by WAR have been traded, rather than leaving as a free agent or eventually retiring with the team. It’s a pretty sorry affair after 27 seasons, but I wondered if maybe they had at least gotten back prospects to rebuild the team over the years. This isn’t necessarily to see how the trades looked at the time, just to see the eventual outcomes. So let’s take a quick look at the returns for the 23 players sent away.

Is Tanking Still the Best Strategy for Teams to Get Ahead?

With the season about to start, one thing that struck me about this upcoming year when previewing it (and especially following the long, strange postseason that followed it) is how many teams are tanking. This especially became apparent when I was writing my most recent article and looking over last year’s last place teams. By my count, at least seven different teams (the White Sox, Tigers, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, and Padres) who are in various stages of a complete tear-down.

Some of them are further along in the process than others, to the point where several of them even made big signings this winter. But overall, these teams all stripped down their rosters recently in the hopes of rebuilding into a superteam in the near future, and almost all of them make no expectations about being able to compete for the playoffs in 2018.

In some ways, it’s not hard to see why they would decide to do that, with the last two World Series winners having gone through the process themselves. But for as good as that track record looks, I’m a little skeptical that it’ll work for all of these teams. Obviously, they won’t all win the World Series like the Cubs and Astros; that’s the absolute best case scenario, and since only one team a year does that well, it’s likely most of those teams won’t win a World Series. But I’m even not sure all or even most of those teams will see notable turnarounds, because I think the number of teams tanking has an adverse effect on the teams doing said tanking.

Basically, it comes down to the concepts behind Moneyball. While the term was for a long time understood to mean “using advanced statistics, looking for players that take a walk, and drafting safer, college pitchers”, that’s not really accurate. As many before me have noted, Moneyball is actually about looking for undervalued attributes in baseball; in layman’s terms, zigging when others are zagging. At the time, for the early-to-mid-2000s A’s and Red Sox, it was those things. For the late 2000s Rays, it was stockpiling young draft picks through the old draft system and locking up young players, among other things. For the recent Royals, it was a focus on defense and the bullpen when others had moved away from those things. And for the Cubs and Astros, it was tanking.

What Would a Giancarlo-Stanton-to-the-Cardinals Trade Look Like?

This isn’t the first time that the Cardinals have been tied in rumor to Giancarlo Stanton, but this is the first time that I’ve been able to write about it now that it’s kind of in the news again. So let’s look at it now. Should the Cardinals make this trade? Should the Marlins? If they both should, what would it take?

Let’s start with the Cardinals’ side: should they trade for Stanton? Yes. The answer is yes. Stanton is currently 24, he has a 167 OPS+ for this season and a 140 mark for his five year career. He has been playing Major League Baseball since he was 20 and he has still hit 40% better than league average. If a player like that is available, you should be fired for not asking about him. As for the logistics, he’s set to become a free agent after 2016, so a team would be acquiring him for at least two and a half seasons, plus any acquiring team would almost certainly be working to extend him, since he’ll be a free agent at the incredibly reasonable age of 27.

Now, the Marlins: would they make this trade? Well, it turns out that they have! Miguel Cabrera was traded two full seasons before becoming a free agent and for his…age 25 season. Well look at that, what a coincidence. Now, the GM has changed since then. However, the influential right hand man to the GM is still in place. Coincidentally, the GM’s right hand man is an actual sock puppet on owner Jeffrey Loria’s right hand.

All of that to say: as long as Jeffrey Loria is owner, there’s a chance that the Marlins will make some crazy cost-cutting maneuver at the expense of fielding a good team. If the team stays in contention this year, they might table talks until the offseason*, but we can’t just rule it out like we could for, oh, 29 other teams.

*And any time you’re depending on a bunch of young pitchers who might wear down, like Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, and Jacob Turner, or a bunch of out-of-nowhere good seasons, like with Casey McGehee, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Tom Koehler, it’s fair to say “Let’s wait another month and see”.

So with that, what would a trade for Stanton look like? Well, let’s use Miguel Cabrera as a basis, since they were 24-year-old outfielders two years from free agency playing on the Marlins with career OPS+s around 140 (Miguel’s was 143, in fact). The full Miggy trade was:

2014 Predictions: NL East

I’ve fallen a little behind for this to be a true “prediction” I guess, but I want to finish this, so I’ll try and keep what’s occurred this year so far out of it. Also, to save time, I’ll try and cover all the NL together. As a reminder, I look at the team’s records and Pythagorean Won-Loss records (based on runs scored and allowed, a better predictor of future success than actual won-loss records) from last year, then what should be different this year. So, onward: (Previous predictions: AL East, AL Central, AL West)

NL East
Braves-96 wins/98 Pythagorean wins
Nationals-86/84
Mets-74/74
Phillies-73/66
Marlins-62/64

Retired Numbers Series: Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ short history has been unlike any other team in baseball. In just over two decades, they have seen both higher highs (two World Series titles) and lower lows (their numerous fire sales) than most other teams. Those extremes have meant a large cast of players in their history, one that is both incredibly talented and very fleeting. But what does it mean for their retired numbers?

2013 Predictions: NL East

For Round 2 of my 2013 predictions, we’ll stay on the East Coast and jump leagues to the Senior Circuit. I would say the NL East is right there with the AL East and West in the running for best division in baseball, in part due to the strength at the top. The bottom is weaker than in either of those two, which probably drags it below them, but I would still say it’s the cream of the crop in the National League. So, starting with last year’s division winner, what can we expect in 2013?

The Marlins Trade Away Everyone, Take Something or Other

So, the Marlins have continued their perpetual fire sale from last summer, sending Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and others to Toronto.

This seems a little like the Red Sox-Dodgers deal, but a little more even. The Blue Jays gave up less than the Dodgers and got more reasonable contracts. None of them will be huge bargains, but they're all probably more or less at market value. Last year, Reyes was worth 4.5 WAR (by Fangraphs), Johnson was worth 3.8, and Buehrle was worth 2.1. With the current estimates of $5 million per WAR on the open market, that comes out to $52 million. The contracts will be back-loaded, but none of the deals looks awful yet, and probably none will become Vernon Wells-level awful.

Really, the worst thing is the implications. Every major free agent the Marlins signed last year is gone, and it looks like the splurging was a shallow marketing lie to try and draw fans. They have shed close to $50 million in payroll in one offseason, and it really just doesn't look like they're serious about winning, only making a slightly larger profit. They also pissed off young face of the franchise Giancarlo Stanton, meaning his days are probably numbered (granted, he may have a few years with his lower at the moment salary). Jeffrey Loria shouldn't be an owner after his debacle in Montreal, and this only further solidifies my view on this.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are solid. Reyes provides a big line-up boost. The rotation, which was held together with tape and bubble gum last year, gets not only Buehrle and Johnson, but also a returning-from-injury Brandon Morrow (and hopefully Ricky Romero gets over whatever happened last year that made him awful). That's a solid top of the rotation. They also still have the rest of the off-season to improve. They might well be a strong contender next year, although I'd like to see what their divisional rivals do first before calling them favorites or anything.

Knee-Jerk Reactions to the 2012 Trade Deadline

I wasn't sure what I would do for the trade deadline, but since there haven't been any major deals yet, there's no harm in looking at what has been done.

Might as well start with the Cardinals: Edward Mujica for Zack Cox. They needed relief help (and not really anything else), so there's that. But really good relievers are generally overpriced, so I'm kind of glad they didn't jump into the deep end of the market. Mujica doesn't seem great, but he's still probably something of an improvement (there are some really weak spots in the Card's 'pen). I remember being high on Zack Cox in the past, but he's apparently fallen off in the past season. He's 23 and hitting .254/.294/.421 at AAA that's less than encouraging, especially since he may have to move off third base. With Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Matt Carpenter, David Freese, Allen Craig, and Matt Adams all blocking him at the corners, I'm even less concerned. Not bad, I suppose. Could be a worse move.

What Does the Marlins Fire Sale Mean?

Some people seem to be very upset at the Marlins with their current fire sale, which has seen them ship off Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, and Hanley Ramirez. I can definitely see why-for a team that has a history of money-saving fire sales, this season looks like a return to form, especially after they spent all winter spending money to shed that image.

The thing is: I think they might have the right idea this time. Well, almost. First off, I think the Marlins absolutely misread their position this winter when they went on a spending spree. As I pointed out before the season, the Marlins had to make up 17 games on second place in their division from 2011. For all their additions, it didn’t quite add up to a 17-game jump. If they really wanted to make up that gap and sustain their performance into the future, getting one or two solid long-term building blocks would have helped.

Why the Newest Pujols-to-Miami Rumors Make No Sense

So, the current buzz is that the Marlins are still going after Pujols, but they mean it this time!

Really, I’m still skeptical for several reasons. First, the Cardinals were apparently the only team left standing on Pujols as recently a week ago, meaning that they didn’t need to raise their bid for his services. Now, suddenly, the Marlins (and Cubs!) are showing interest. This seems an awful lot like the classic “mystery team” ploy (or, it could be both teams trying to force the Cardinals to up their offer, which would more or less be the same thing, just a different instigator).

Cardinals Bring Back Berkman, But Is It a Good Move?

The Cardinals announced today that they will be bringing back right fielder Lance Berkman for the 2012 season. Let’s leave aside any speculation on what this means about Albert Pujols for now-is this a good move?