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    Thursday, March 21, 2019

    More 2019 Season Preview Stuff

    Over at The Crawfish Boxes, I have another piece up looking at an AL Rival. This time, it's the Boston Red Sox. If you missed any of the three earlier ones, there's also the A's, Angels, and Mariners.

    Also, as part of a team-wide article, I made a prediction about a milestone the Astros might be able to match in 2019.

    Saturday, March 9, 2019

    Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Hitters, 2019 Edition

    Once again, it’s that time of the offseason where I dive into the best young players in the game and determine which ones are on a pace to make Cooperstown. As usual, I’ll be starting today with the position players.

    To give you a refresher on the process: I begin by looking at every Hall of Famer, then finding the median career Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference version) by age for the group. Then, I look at how many players in history have matched or bettered that WAR total through that same age. From there, I take a simple percentage of how many players made the Hall out of the total set of players who reached the median WAR (removing players still on the ballot or not yet eligible for Cooperstown). While it doesn’t account for things like eventual Veterans Committee selections, or give us a great idea of which below-median players will eventually be elected, it does give us surprisingly strong odds for the best of the best, and way earlier than most people expect.

    So, with the preamble out of the way, let’s dive right in: