Retired Number Quiz Series: The National League Central

We’re now in the back half of this trip through the league. Having covered the AL East (quiz, article), the NL East (quiz, article), and the AL Central (quiz, article), we now move on to the next division, the NL Central. As I mentioned last time, the two Central divisions have the oldest teams on average, which makes things a little more difficult. But I still don’t find this one on the whole to be as tough as the AL Central; their NL Central counterparts just don’t feel like they’ve picked over their retired number options quite as thoroughly.

When you’re ready, you can play the quiz HERE, then return after you’re finished to learn more about the answers. As a reminder, players must have worn a uniform number on the team in question for at least three seasons. Since none of these teams have moved, the only bonus answer this time is a Hall of Famer for the Reds who didn’t reach that three-year minimum.

Have fun!


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2017 Teams With a Chance to Set Home Run History: The Double-Digit Dinger Club

A few years ago, the Houston Astros shocked everyone by jumping out to a surprising early division lead, and they did it in part by hitting a lot of dingers. As I watched the season progress, an interesting subplot cropped up, beneath the question of whether the surprising young club would hold on to make the playoffs: they had a chance to make home run history.

No individual player was challenging any records, though. Rather, it was a team record the announcers would update viewers on: Most players with double-digit home runs. The all-time record was 11, set by the 2004 Detroit Tigers, who, like the 2015 ‘Stros, had no big masher leading the way; both teams were led by 27-homer guys (Carlos Pena and Evan Gattis, respectively). The Astros ended up tying this mark towards the end of the year, and had two more players finishing the season with 9.*

*Trivia time: almost half of those players aren’t on the Astros anymore, just a season and a half later. I’ll let you know who they are later in the column.

It’s a remarkable set of circumstances that leads to a team having more 10-home run guys than available lineup spots, but MLB was entering a period ideal for this, given the overall upward shift in home run totals. That trend continued in 2016, and another team joined those two atop the leaderboards: the 2016 Twins. Despite losing 103 games, just shy of a dozen Minnesota players went yard ten or more times last year.

MLB has seen yet another increase in home run totals this year, which got me wondering: could we see our fourth 11-10-homer team this year? Is there a better name for that exclusive club? And most importantly, what are the odds that some time has a full twelve players reach that mark? With just over 70 games in the books, lets take a look at the early leaders in 10-homer players, and who else they might see reach that total.

Which Last Place Team Is Most Likely to Turn It Around?

We now stand a little over a fifth of the way through the season, past the point were divisions can see a total flip-flop over night. They haven’t fully stabilized yet, though; it’s still only been just over 30 games, after all, and there’s plenty that could still happen. I decided to take this thought to the optimistic end and ask “Which team currently in last place is most likely to turn it all around?”

Right now, there are actually essentially seven teams in last in their divisions, thanks to a tie out east: the Orioles, the Red Sox, the Indians, the Athletics, the Phillies, the Brewers, and the Rockies. There are undoubtedly some good teams in the bunch, as is usually the case after only a month and a half of third. Heck, I even picked some of those teams as division winners. But is there any reason to expect differently now that they’re in last? Going over them one-by-one:

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are probably the least likely to turn things around, out of this seven. Right now trail the NL East, with an 11-23 record that leaves them 9.5 games back. For as bad as having the worst record in the Majors sounds, what makes it worse is that they’re still outpacing they’re Pythagorean record by two games. Even GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. admitted they’re a little outmatched. And if they decide to start trading off veterans like Cole Hamels, it’ll only get worse. So yeah, this one is probably a no.

Milwaukee Brewers

Technically not as bad as the Phillies, with a 12-22 record. But playing in the same division as the current best team in baseball leaves them even further behind, at 11.0 back. On top of that, they’ve already fired their manager and announced that they’re sellers this year. So, once again, it seems pretty unlikely here.

Colorado Rockies

While we’re on the topic trade rumors, there’s one going around now that Troy Tulowitzki will be demanding one out of Colorado soon. It’ll already be difficult for the Rockies to bounce back with him; they’re 11-18 and 9.5 back. I predicted them to be in the running for worst team in the Majors at the start of the year and they’ve certainly lived down to that expectation. Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado are a nice starting point, but their ace is 24-year-old rookie Eddie Butler and their number two is Kyle Kendrick.

Oakland Athletics

They’re 13-22, so a tad better than the other teams covered, and only 8.0 games out, so there’s less work to do. Also, it seems they have less to turn around than most last-place teams; the A’s are one of two last-place teams with a winning Pythagorean record (the other, funnily enough, are the O’s). So the talent definitely seems to be there (although losing Jarrod Parker to injury again hurts, seeing as he would have helped a rather thin rotation). (Edit: Also, they'll be getting Ben Zobrist back, which should be a shot in the arm.)

Cleveland Indians

They’re a little worse off than the Athletics, thanks to an 11-20 record and a 9.0 game deficit, but I also anticipated them being stronger in the pre-season than the Athletics. Yan Gomes’s injury hurts, but Jason Kipnis is bouncing back, and Michael Brantley, Ryan Rayburn, and Carlos Santana are staying strong. Their starting pitching seems to be doing okay (Fangraphs puts them tenth in WAR), so if the lineup and rotation aren’t the big issues, what’s wrong? Well, their bullpen (21^st) and fielding (25^th) are bad. Are those going to keep up? Maybe, but I’d imagine they’re easier to fix (whether through concentrated effort or just a change in luck, since they’re both rather tempermental) than the first two things. Still, that’s a big early hole. It can be done, though.

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

These two are easily the most likely. Despite being tied for last, they’re both doing rather respectably (15-18 for Boston, 14-17 for Baltimore), and are fewer games back from first (5.5) than some second-place teams are (the Cubs and the Giants, specifically). Starting from that close is already a pretty sizable advantage when handicapping these things.

If you want to bet on a single worst-to-first story, one of these two is your best choice. But which one? Well, while they are “tied”, Baltimore seems much better positioned to strike than Boston. They haven’t been outscored nearly as badly (a 16-15 Pythag, to Boston’s 13-20). Plus, there’s help coming off the DL: the Orioles finally got back J.J. Hardy, will see the return of Matt Wieters soon, will hopefully move young starter Kevin Gausman to the rotation upon his return, and will get Jonathan Schoop back eventually. Add in that Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Ubaldo Jimenez seem to be having bouncebacks from weaker 2014 while the Red Sox struggle to find one above-average starter and that seems to make the difference. The Red Sox may also turn it around; even with their pitching weakness, they still have a lineup that can club any opposing team into submission. They just seem a little less well-rounded.

So there you have it. Maybe it’s partly my Orioles fandom clouding my judgment, but even trying to set that aside, no other last place team looks as ready for a turnaround.

2014 Predictions: NL Central

Links to the other divisions: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East


NL Central
Cardinals-97/101
Pirates-94/88
Reds-90/93
Brewers-74/76
Cubs-66/71

Retired Numbers Series: Milwaukee Brewers

Following the departure of the Braves in 1965, Milwaukee managed to draw in the Seattle Pilots a year after the latter were a part of the second round of 1960s expansion, renaming them the Brewers. Since then, the Brewers have become both the smallest market with a team and a huge local draw. How does the future look like it will play out for this little team that could?

Kyle Lohse Signs with the Brewers (and I Just Finished My NL Central Predictions...)

The Brewers have signed the last remaining major free agent, getting starter Kyle Lohse for $33 million over 3 years. And I just finished previewing the NL Central, too. How does this mess up these predictions?

Not too terribly, actually. I originally had them as a fourth-place, just below .500 team. Now? I guess I’d put them at just over .500, in the same camp as the Pirates. Maybe with some good luck, they can make the NL Central a three-way race.

Lohse had a career-year in 2012, posting bests in ERA (2.86), Fielding Independent Pitching (3.51), K/9 (6.10), BB/9 (1.62), innings (211), and WAR (3.6, Fangraphs). That’s a little worrisome for a 34-year old pitcher, but I think he has at least one more season in him as a solid number two or three starter. I’m a little more skeptical of how his 2014 and 2015 seasons will be, but for a Brewers team that had Marco Estrada as their number two yesterday, it’s hard to argue this isn’t an improvement for 2013. And $11 million per year doesn’t seem like a wild overpay.

Like I said yesterday, the Brewers will almost certainly post a strong line-up again, barring injuries. They led the league in runs scored last year (776, 11 above second place St. Louis), which leaves them room to be good even if they fall off. Anything that helps them improve on their 733 runs allowed (thirteenth in the NL) is good. Losing a draft pick, especially to a rival in St. Louis, will hurt with their rather thin farm system. However, the Brewers as they are currently constructed are still in a win-now mode. If I thought they were an 81-win team yesterday, this would put them in the neighborhood of 84-86 wins, and from there, it’s just a few breaks to be in contention.

Still, I’m standing by my predictions from yesterday. I think this makes Milwaukee a just-over .500 team, and I’ll still bet on the Pirates’ upside to top that. If anything, this will take wins away from the Rangers or Indians in my predictions (those are where I had been predicting him to land). Still, I do think it’s a good, sensible move for the Brewers to make.

2013 Predictions: NL Central

We continue our prediction series by heading westward, this time touching on the NL Central. 2013 will represent the first time ever the NL Central has had only five teams, with the Astros moving on to the AL West. That probably means several lost wins for all of these teams, but I still expect the top two teams in this division to match the top two from the NL East for best teams in the league (with maybe one NL West team thrown into that mix for good measure, but I’ll get to them later). With that, what exactly can we expect from those two teams, as well as the other three?

Why I Don't Get the Angels' Trade for Zack Greinke (UPDATED)

I’m not sure I understand the Angel’s trade for Zack Greinke.

I mean, at a certain level, it looks nice. The Angels have a solid top four of Greinke-Jered Weaver-C.J. Wilson-Dan Haren. That does look very nice. But the details of it don’t add up.

NL Central Predictions, or: How Not to Make Projections

David Schoenfield has been doing a position-by-position preview of every division in baseball to predict the winners. I admit I haven’t been following every part of the series, so I’m not sure if these are actually predictions; however, I read the NL Central edition out of curiosity, and I figured I had to address it.

For those who haven’t read it, Schoenfield basically looks through every team’s projected line-up and awards points based on who is the best at each position; in the case of the NL Central, 6 points for the best, 5 for second, and so on. He then adds the total points for each team and voila!-a prediction. By this system, he has the Brewers beating the Reds and Cardinals, 77-73-68. This actually shocked me; I think the Reds and Cardinals will be battling for the top spot, with the Brewers needing some luck or injuries on the other teams to make a run.

More Trivia!

And, with the stunning conclusion of the NLCS, I now have all the data necessary to publish another quiz. This one is on World Series match-ups throughout history. I'm trying to think of ways to combat the scrolling needed to see all of the answers, but otherwise, it should be playable.

World Series Match Ups

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Also, some notes on the game:

Albert Pujols and David Freese both had an incredible NLCS. I would have given the NLCS MVP to Pujols up until game 6 probably. But Freese definitely ended stronger. Either one would have been a great story; the legend adds to his growing legacy, or the local newcomer makes a name for himself. In the end, I think they made the right choice (.545/.600/1.091 vs .478/.556/.913).

And hey, the third baseman won it!
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MLB.com ran a headline about a blown call that cost the Brewers a rally. Several issues with this, really. I'm all for more replay, but don't make a story out of nothing. First, the Brewers were already down by six runs (five after the play); so, they went from being down by five runs with one on and no out to no on and one out. That really isn't that big of a difference, win probability-wise. Also, Prince Fielder kind of grounded out right to the second baseman on the next play.

Even more important though; if you want to yell about the Brewers losing a runner to a blown call (as some of the commenters on MLB.com are already doing), you have to at least mention that a blown call in the first cost the Cardinals a run. (Also, if I recall, one of the TBS announcers mentioned that the umpire made a great call on that second play, even though he conceded that it wasn't right, as if that was just a small technicality).

(Also, I realize that most people wouldn't blame the whole game on this. But, for posterity's sake, I just wanted to point out that the Cardinals actually had a bigger missed call against them in the game-that would have put them up 2-0, and we didn't necessarily know at the time that David Freese would follow it up with a home run. I just have no idea why MLB.com is trying to make this call in particular into a story.)
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Also, while I'm linking to Baseball Nation, I may as well mention that I found this Grant Brisbee game update especially hilarious, for some reason.
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The other two Sporcle games that I created can be found here (ALCS) and here (NLCS).
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Also, I would like to point out that blatant homerism is apparently a great method for picking a World Series winner.

K-Rod to Brewers: One Paragraph Knee-Jerk Reaction

Well, it seems Francisco Rodriguez will be leaving the New York Mets for the more beer-and-cheese laden pastures of Milwaukee. I would do one of my Knee-Jerk Reaction pieces on this move if I wasn't totally bogged down with writing right now (you'll see what I mean in a bit). So, for now, I will leave my thoughts on the Brewers acquiring a $17.5 million set-up man for John Axford to "LOL wut?"