The 2025 Orioles and Braves: What Happens After the Rebuild? (The Rebuild Review)

I’ve wanted to revisit some ideas about big rebuilds and what comes next, so I started looking into it around the All-Star Break. However, the process sort of spiraled into something bigger, and as it went on, I realized that the first half of the article was a little more timely than the back-half. So rather than finish the whole thing and then start making decisions on publishing and where to divide it, I made the call to just preemptively split it up and publish the first part before it got too out-of-date, while still working on the back-half. As a result, I can’t really promise when Part 2 will be coming just yet, but it will hopefully be soon.

Built with Kit

Over the last few seasons, I’ve been maintaining something of a series where I look at rebuilding teams. The main focus initially was comparing the complete teardown and rebuild of the circa-2020 Orioles with the one pulled off by the early-2010s Astros, since there were a lot of similarities in the two (including a shared lineage of personnel). A few other rebuilds also got mentioned over the course of those articles, but I eventually got around to a piece centered around the Braves’ retooling as a contrasting method. Ever since then, I’ve had a sort of mental connection between all of them.

The last piece in that series came over two years, right at the start of the 2023 season, and that looked like the end of things. The Orioles would roar out to a division title (their first since 2014) and 101 wins (their first 100-win season since 1980). The only team ahead of them was that Braves team, who won 104 games and looked to be moving into the peak years of their dynasty following their 2021 title.*

*Also, all stats in this piece are going to be from Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs.

If that had been the end, it would have been a satisfying conclusion to a long process. The Orioles’ rebuild finally paid off, the Braves’ kicked into high gear, the end. 2024 didn’t go quite as smoothly for either team, as both fell to second in their division and around the 90 win mark. But hey, there’s always some randomness over 162 games and following up a 100-win season can be hard. The important thing was that they made it back to the playoffs. And sure, those playoff runs ended poorly, but again, that happens sometimes. Both of them would be well equipped to try and come back the next year in 2025…

You almost certainly know how that’s gone so far. Those 2024 swoons look less like bad-luck blips and more like omens for what was to come. At the 2025 All-Star Break, the two had near-identical records (43-52 for Baltimore, 42-53 for Atlanta) and were both around a dozen games out of the division, with only the faintest hopes of a second-half comeback. It’s difficult to decide which one is the bigger disappointment. 

The Most Encouraging Part of the Astros' first two weeks

Over at The Crawfish Boxes, I wrote about Carlos Correa's hot start, and why it might be more meaningful in evaluating the Astros' season than your average first two weeks.

More on Stephen Strasburg's Shutdown

I didn’t really intend to write more about Stephen Strasburg. I already covered the issue once, and that was going to be it. But, even with the shutdown upon us, more information on the decision has come out.

First is the interesting one: Dr. Lewis Yocum, the surgeon who repaired Strasburg’s ligament last year, originally claimed that he wasn’t consulted when determining the (approximately) 160-inning limit. Even though he later clarified that he agreed that Strasburg should be limited in some way, there isn’t any real indication that he provided them with an actual number.

Yocum mentions that there’s been no study on the correct way to handle pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery which is technically true. But Rany Jazayerli, one of the foremost researches on the subject of young pitcher injuries, has a very interesting new piece up at Grantland. I would definitely recommend reading the whole thing.

Nick Markakis' Injury Is Kind of Bad, and Other Thoughts

The Orioles lost Nick Markakis on Saturday for more or less the rest of the season following his broken thumb. There are several ways I want to look at this.

First, there’s what it means from the standpoint of the Orioles’ playoff chances. It’s definitely not good; losing any of your starters is, in general, bad. Losing a starter in September, when there’s no way to replace them through trade or waiver move, is even worse. Even with expanded rosters, if the Orioles had someone immediately capable of stepping in and replacing Markakis’ production, he should, in theory, already be on the roster and playing.

Stephen Strasburg's Inning Limit and October

I know the topic has been beaten to death. But I have some sort of interest in the Nationals (even if I don’t fully understand why), so I might as well weigh in on the Stephen Strasburg inning-limit story.

I can understand the desire to keep Strasburg healthy. I trust the Nationals have looked into the topic. But I think there are plenty of problems with the “keep pitching him until he hits 180 innings, then shut him down for the year” plan.

Jason Kendall Retires

Jason Kendall never got an MVP vote.

Of course, you may be saying. Kendall was an awful hitter his past few seasons. He hasn’t even had an OPS+ over 100 since the Curse of the Bambino was still a thing. The Royals signed him-that alone is pretty damning. And plenty of players have never gotten an MVP vote. A vast majority of the people that play in the Major Leagues never get an MVP vote. Sure, sometimes the voters act silly and the next thing you know, Delmon Young finishes in the top 10. And sometimes, you see an oddball down-ballot choice. Remember Jeremy Affeldt's MVP campaign? Neither does Jeremy Affeldt, but it apparently happened back in 2009. But, overall, not receiving any MVP votes is not a huge deal. But Jason Kendall might be the best player to never get an MVP vote.

Injuries and the End

So, a spate of major injuries has hit some of the stars of the 2000s as of late, particularly stars associated with the NL Central. Kerry Wood started by retiring due to his injuries. Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman have since come down with major, career-threatening injuries. This seemed to stir some thoughts and memories in me, so I figured now would be a good time to reflect on them as players.

First, Wood. As a Cardinals fan, I remember being terrified of him back in 2003 or so. Back then, the Astros, Cubs, and Cardinals always struck me as the big three of the NL Central, which I suppose makes it fitting that I’m covering a representative from each team now. Wood and Prior were their two aces, something it felt like the Cardinals lacked even one of. (I recall Matt Morris being the Cards’ number 1 at the time, but I remember him being an ace-type pitcher for much longer than he was even good.)