Retired Number Quiz Series: The American League West

Today, we move to our penultimate division in the Retired Number Quiz series, the AL West. In stark contrast with the Central divisions, four-fifths of the teams in the AL West are expansion teams, making them the overall youngest division.* Still, I think there are a lot of solid options here. And if you missed any of the previous pieces, so far, there’s the AL East (quiz, article), the NL East (quiz, article), the AL Central (quiz, article), and the NL Central (quiz, article).

*Technically, all three expansion teams in the NL West are newer than any AL West team, but the age of the Giants and Dodgers leaves the AL West with the lower average age. I guess that means the NL West is younger by median, but either way, they still cover more history.

You can try the AL West quiz HERE before coming back here to read the full breakdown. As a refresher, players must have worn a uniform number for at least three seasons, and this quiz covers the entire history of the franchise. For bonus answers, there are five A’s; one who failed to reach the three-year minimum, and four players from the Oakland era of the team, since two-thirds of the list is from before their move out to California.

As usual, good luck!


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How Well Do the New-and-Improved Angels Stack Up Against the Astros?

[also posted at The Crawfish Boxes]

The Angels had one of the splashiest offseasons of any team in the majors, with the centerpiece being handing out one of the largest contracts in history. That stands in fairly stark contrast with Houston’s offseason, which (even aside from the sign stealing scandal and related fallout) still saw them lose the 2020 AL Cy Young runner-up, among other players. That contrast has been looming in my mind, so I wanted to step back and take a more objective look: how much did the gap close between the Angels and Astros this winter?

Before anything else, though, it’s worth keeping in mind the scale of what we’re dealing with. The Angels, for all of their good players, were still not a good team in 2020, finishing the year with a 72-90 record, behind the 107-win Astros. And it’s not like there was a lot of luck there that they can hope will help even things out; both teams finished exactly in line with their Pythagorean records, so we can just go off their regular records.

That put them a full 35.0 games out of first place, which coincidentally matches the single biggest one-year improvement by a team in MLB history (the 1998 to 1999 Diamondbacks, who went from 65 wins to 100 in part with the help of new free agent Randy Johnson). It’s probably unrealistic to expect that from the Angels, so let’s divide that swing between the two teams. If you want to split the difference, dating back to 2000, a little less than two teams per year improve and fall by 17 games. So the Angels, to compete for the division title, are hoping to be one of the two biggest improvements this season and the Astros being one of the two biggest drops (and even that might not be enough, given that 17+17 still only accounts for 34.0 games).

Honestly, that sense of scale is reasonably comfortable already for anyone rooting for the Astros, but let’s break it down further, into the individual components. Let’s start with the offense, since that’s where the Angels made their biggest, most notable improvements. In 2019, L.A. finished with about half of the position player WAR (Fangraphs version) of the Astros, 40.8 to 20.3, in large part thanks to finishing 26 points behind Houston in wRC+, 125 to 99.

Some of that can come from regression to the mean on the Astros’ part, given their historic 2019 campaign and how hard it is to repeat historic seasons. And losing Robinson Chirinos (113 wRC+) is going to hurt some. But it’s not like there aren’t areas for improvement to help offset those losses, too: Yordan Álvarez (87 games, 178 wRC+) should be getting a full season, and Carlos Correa (75 games, 143 wRC+) will hopefully be healthy; Jose Altuve and George Springer each missed about 40 games last year, and could make up some of that difference in increased playing time.

On the margins, Tyler White and Tony Kemp won’t be getting 400+ plate appearances, and while Jake Marisnick’s glove will be missed, Myles Straw could easily prove an adequate replacement on the whole, with a better bat making up the difference even if his defense is a notch below Jake’s. And of course, there’s still the hope that Kyle Tucker steps forward and provides another great bat.

The Astros will almost certainly be worse at hitting in 2020, because no one has hit like they did in 2020; but there’s still plenty of room to fall and still be above average. For example, if they had a team wRC+ a full 10 points lower last year, they still would have been third in the league.

But while the Astros’s position players will still probably good in 2020, it’s not hard to imagine the Angels’ improving enough to match them on that front. Jason Castro is stepping into a spot that was basically a zero last year. Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons each missed over 50 games, and Mike Trout missed a little over 20. Justin Upton missed nearly 100 games, and the 63 he played in didn’t look anything close to his previous seasons. And of course, there’s Rice-alum Anthony Rendon, who signed a massive contract this offseason and is more than enough to make up for their biggest loss from 2019, Kole Calhoun. We haven’t even gotten into Jo Adell, their equivalent of Kyle Tucker, but saying their Angels’ lineup is on par with the Astros doesn’t feel like too much of a reach.

To go back to our earlier pair of questions, are the Astros 10 wins worse on offense, and are the Angels 10 wins better? I think Houston is worse than before, but 10 wins is a big drop, even for a team that was at a historic high last year. But the Angels very easily might be 10 wins better on this front. And every win above 10 makes up some of that gap from the Astros not dropping 10 wins.

I think I’d still lean towards the Astros due to several big questions hanging around L.A. (Can Justin Upton bounce back? How well and much will Albert Pujols play? Are the bigger injuries last year a lingering problem, or a one-year fluke?), which mostly seem to come down to “they have a similar ceiling, but the Angels have a lot more uncertainty”. I could honestly see the matter coming down to who has a healthier season.

But that’s only half the question, and man oh man is the pitching half of things still as lopsided as ever. Gerrit Cole leaving hurts, and I don’t blame anyone for being concerned about that. But the Angels are not the ones who are going to push Houston on this front; after finishing 18 WAR behind the Astros in 2019, L.A.’s big pickups were Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy, and at this moment, those two would make up half of their playoff rotation. Fangraphs predicts both of them to finish with ERA’s above 4.40 and FIPS in the 4.50 to 5.00 range.

Shoot, even if they make a big mid-season trade for a starter, those two still might both appear in a potential ALCS rotation, depending on the health of Andrew Heaney (just 95.1 innings in 2019), Shohei Ohtani (hasn’t pitched since 2018, on track to start pitching a month and a half late and only go once a week when he’s back), and how well their assorted fourth and fifth starter options can stick (Griffin Canning, the best of their bunch, is already in a worrisome spot health-wise this spring). Put another way, in a best-case scenario, I can see Los Angeles maybe fielding a competent rotation, but it’s hard to envision a ceiling much higher than that, and it’s extremely easy to see them ending up below that ceiling.

So let’s go back to that two-pronged question we used in the first two parts; is the 2020 Astros pitching 9 WAR worse than it was in 2019, and is the Angels staff 9 WAR better? Losing Cole is big (Fangraphs had him at about seven and a half wins alone), and Wade Miley was competent for most of the year, but there are plenty of mitigating factors to that total. Lance McCullers’ return and a full season of Zack Greinke will help offset some of that, and Jose Urquidy projects to be about on Miley’s level at least; they could still be 9 wins worse on the whole, but it will largely come down to injuries, young pitchers, and regression in that case.

But the Angels just do not strike me as 9 WAR better than last year on the pitching front, let alone enough above that to start making up ground if the Astros don’t fall their full 9 WAR. And remember, just adding 9 WAR isn’t enough; they also have to make up for the late Tyler Skaggs, who was their best starter last year (1.8 WAR in 79.2 innings). And unlike on the offense, where the Angels can match Astros fans’ hopes for Kyle Tucker with their dreams for Jo Adell, the Angels don’t have a Forrest Whitley in the wings, let alone the recent track record Houston pitching has seen under Brent Strom.

Maybe the Angels can make up for that on offense, but that’s expecting something like a 15 WAR improvement on top of a 10-WAR drop by the Astros, which is starting to reach “extremely improbable” territory. The Astros will have a harder path to the division title in 2020 than they did in 2019, and the improved Angels will be a part of that, but they probably won’t wind up replacing the Astros themselves.

Weekly Review

This week, I did a couple of summaries for the Angels series, including Monday's loss and Wednesday's big win. The latter marked my first recap of a win in over a month!

I also contributed to The Crawfish Boxes' Trade Deadline preview, where we each picked our ideal and most likely trade targets.

And in case you missed it on this site, here was my two-part series looking at managers, retired numbers, and which managers might get their numbers retired.

The AL Rest, Part 3

I originally wasn't going to do one of these for the Mariners, but after looking over their roster, I realized they were stronger than I had been giving them credit for. I don't think they're a major player for the AL West this season, but if they could surprise everyone last year, this year might not be completely out of reach (although the biggest payoff for these moves will likely be the years after 2019).

If you missed the earlier parts of this series, here are the Athletics and Angels.

The AL Rest, Part 2

Over at The Crawfish Boxes, I followed up Monday's post previewing the Athletics with one looking over the Angels' chances for upsetting the Astros in 2019. Go check it out, and if you missed the one on the A's, that can be found here.

2014 Predictions: AL West

I’m a little behind with the start of the season, but I want to finish this. Let’s get this ball rolling and dive right in. Just a quick refresher, though: I’m looking at what happened last year both in Wins and Pythagorean Wins (which is the estimated wins total based on runs scored and allowed, which is often a better predictor of future wins than actual wins) and then looking at what’s different from last year.

AL West
A’s-96 Wins/96 Pythagorean Wins
Rangers-91/92
Angels-78/81
Mariners-71/67
Astros-51/57

Is Albert Pujols on His Way to a Bounce Back Year?

Much has been made of the Angels’ struggles, particularly Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The major signings of the last two off seasons, the pair or them has disappointed. Josh Hamilton’s struggles appear to have started last year, and stem mainly from his declining ability to control the strike zone.

Similar claims were made last season about Pujols after his early struggles. For the fourth straight season, his walk rate and his isolated slugging declined, while his percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone increased.

For his struggles then, it appears he may be on to something now. All of those trends have reversed. Pujols has swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone, and his walk rate (10.9%) is greater than either of the past two seasons (7.8%, 9.4%), although not quite as high as it was back in 2010 or 2009 (14.7%, 16.4%). Still, it’s encouraging to see. Combine that with a .228 batting average on balls in play and you can see why his .237/.319/.407 line might improve, even if his isolated slugging is at an all-time low for him.

Except has Pujols really regained his patience? It’s interesting to note that his strike out percentage (11.6%) is second only to his rookie season as his career high. That seems to go against the earlier statement. Until you break down his numbers further, that is.

Pujols batted in front of Hamilton for most of the season to date, and amassed 6 intentional walks in that time. That seems right for his peak, but the past two seasons, he’s only been intentionally walked 15 and 16 times over a whole season. Pitchers definitely seemed to be pitching around him to face the weakened Hamilton.

Taking out his six intentional walks drops him down to 9 walks on the year total, which, through 132 plate appearances (again, removing those six), puts him at 6.8% walk rate, below even last year’s low. That would also drop his in-base percentage down from .319 to .287. Even halving his intentional walks (to put it more in line with the last two years) leaves him with marks of 8.9% (better than last year, but still below two years ago) and .303.

Overall, it looks like he hasn’t worsened from last year too much, but he’s still not on pace to return to being the Pujols of old.

2013 Predictions: AL West

I didn’t quite finish this series before opening day like I wanted, but I still intend to finish it. There are several other stories I would like to cover-most notably Johan Santana’s injury and possible retirement. Those will still come; but first, this.

The AL West may be the best division in baseball this year. It might have been last year, when the A’s, Rangers, and Angels all topped 89 wins. Although the Astros have joined the division, the only other division with that accomplishment (the AL East) seems to have gotten worse, while the AL West seems to have only gotten better. With the three teams at the top again looking to be in a dogfight in 2013, how will it all shake out?

Mike Trout, the 2013 Los Angeles Angels, and Improvements

We’re drawing ever closer to Spring Training (at long last), meaning we can finally begin looking at the 2013 in earnest. And, like last year, the Angels look to be one of the most interesting teams in the league, thanks in part to one of the game’s most fascinating players.

Mike Trout was kept in the minors for the first month of the season, then absolutely dominated everybody else upon his call-up. In 139 games, he hit 30 home runs, 27 doubles, 8 triples, stole 49 bases, posted a .326/.399/.564 batting line, and played stellar defense. It was a pretty historic season; even with the missing month of time, Trout still managed over 10 Wins Above Replacement, only the 47th such season in baseball history since the start of the AL. Fangraphs rated it similarly, at 10 WAR.

No matter how you look at the season, it was good. Which brings up the question: how good will he be this season? It’s easy to just say as good as he was in 2012, but that’s not a given. Players generally improve as the get closer to 27 or 28, but that isn’t a given. He could very easily be the best player in the league for the second year straight and see his value drop.

Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, the Triple Crown, and Other Early AL MVP Thoughts

I wanted to write something about the AL MVP race. As you probably know, Miguel Cabrera hit his 42nd home run of the year yesterday, tying him with Josh Hamilton. With his .331 average (8 points above Mike Trout) and 133 RBI (10 ahead of Hamilton), he now stands with a very realistic shot at the Triple Crown with 10 games left.

Because of that, some people have begun advocating for him to win the MVP Awards based on the Triple Crown instant-win clause which was apparently secretly added to the voting criterion after Ted Williams’ 1947 season (his second time losing the MVP in a Triple Crown season, actually).

Why I Don't Get the Angels' Trade for Zack Greinke (UPDATED)

I’m not sure I understand the Angel’s trade for Zack Greinke.

I mean, at a certain level, it looks nice. The Angels have a solid top four of Greinke-Jered Weaver-C.J. Wilson-Dan Haren. That does look very nice. But the details of it don’t add up.

Retired Numbers Series: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels, despite being an expansion team, have quite a bit of history to them. They were included in the first round of expansion back in 1961, and have the best winning percentage of any expansion team since then (at .499, they also place ahead of four original teams). It’s no surprise, then, that they have several compelling candidacies for retired numbers. And so, they become the next team to be covered in the Retired Numbers Series.

Thoughts on Albert Pujols to the Angels

Well, that didn't happen at all the way I thought it would.

It's been weird; I heard about it minutes after it happened, but didn't get a chance to stop what I was doing and write something until now. Really, I didn't even get a chance to reflect on it until now.

First, I was more expecting the Marlins to offer just plain stupid trump offer. Even more than that, though,  I wasn't expecting a just plain stupid trump offer. I was more or less expecting the Cardinals to overpay for sentimental reasons to bring back Pujols, and the $220 million dollar price tag would hurt, but we'd get over it, and at least there would be the memories to comfort Cardinal fans during the decline years of the contract. Instead, the Angels jumped in out of nowhere to sign him away.

I don't really begrudge Pujols for leaving, or the Cardinals for not upping their offer. Really, this isn't meant to be a bitter piece.

First, I would like thank Albert for his eleven years as a Cardinals. Nothing can take away those three MVP years, or two World Series trophies, or anything else. I still can't wait to see number 5 retired and Albert in Cooperstown with a St. Louis hat (and both will come, eventually).

Next, I would like to thank the Cardinals front office for sticking to their plan and not upping their offer to Pujols. The deal they offered was already about as long as I could have stomached; I think any longer or bigger would have actually crippled the team (and, as an optimist, I didn't even think a $220 million/10 year deal would ruin the team's chances in the future...). So kudos to them.

(Also, in a weird way, I would like to thank the Angels. They saved us $220 million dollars, and I'm sure there will be some humor ten years from now when they're paying a 42-year-old first baseman $26 million+ per year. Essentially, they're paying him whatever we owed him from his time in St. Louis.)