Another Trivia Break, Part 2

Continuing on the post from yesterday, here is Quiz Number 2 from High Heat Stats' series on the best players at each position. This one covers the outfield and designated hitter.

Another Trivia Break, Part 1

High Heat Stats wrote an article last week looking at the best players at each position over five year spans. It's incredibly interesting stuff, and I really want to write more about this, but for now, here's a Sporcle quiz on the first part of the series, which covers infielders.

Retired Numbers Series: Detroit Tigers

Picking what team to do next for the Retired Number Series is something of a challenge now. I’m always looking for interesting trivia or unusual tidbits to sway me towards one team or another. In the case of the Tigers, part of what caught my attention was a recent article from Beyond the Boxscore where the Tigers were found, by at least one measure, to be the most snubbed in terms of Hall of Fame voting.

The Tigers have stuck mostly to retiring Hall of Famers’ numbers (with one major exception); therefore, there would be a good chance that several Tiger legends are being snubbed as far getting their numbers retired. Are there, and, if so, who are they?

Replacement Level AL East Preview

Bryan at Replacement Level has asked me to join in his division preview on behalf of the Orioles, although he did offer me the choice of covering the Cardinals if I thought they have a better chance of winning the AL East. It’s a tempting offer, but I’ll stick with covering the Orioles for this piece. So, let’s get started:

(EDIT: You can see the full five parts of the project here.)

More Contract Talk, and Some Thoughts on the Expanded Playoffs

So, this was originally going to go with my last post until it kind of spiraled out of control into an ode to Ryan Zimmerman (not that I regret it). It fit in so well with the topic of contract talks, though. Apparently, Josh Hamilton got some people upset when he said that he wasn’t going to give the Rangers a discount, and a lot of people seemed upset with that. I actually don’t really see any reason for animosity in this scenario.

Ryan Zimmerman: The Contract Extension, and Other Thoughts

So, there are a lot of things that I’ve wanted to write about as of late, but general, all-around business has kept me busy (go figure). So, I’ll try and condense some of them into a single meandering post.

One of the two stories I really want to address is the big extension that Ryan Zimmerman just signed with the Nationals. I really care about both the Nationals and Ryan Zimmerman, for some reason. Neither is on par with my actual fandom for the Cardinals or Orioles, but if I had to construct a hierarchy of favorite teams, the Nationals would probably be a solid bronze medal winner. I really don’t have any clear explanations for this. Part of it might be that I used to live in the D.C. area (granted, it was before the Nationals were a thing, which is why I’m an Orioles fan instead; but maybe some residual feelings for the area?). Part of it might have been sympathy for the Expos that carried over and multiplied when they were moved. Part of it might be because Peter Angelos didn’t like them. But I think Ryan Zimmerman is also a large part of it.

Fighting Tomorrow's Ignorance Now 2

The Hall of Fame season got me all worked up, due to the high quantities of misconceptions, confusions, and outright errors that got thrown around as facts. And I know that it will happen next year, as well. Curt Schilling isn’t the only player in next year’s class that I foresee being unfairly written off too quickly, though.

As of right now, I would bet money that Kenny Lofton receives less than 5% of the vote next year and falls off of the ballot for 2014, and that would be a huge shame. I think the guy is a Hall of Famer; even if you don’t, I think you’ll at least admit that he deserves to stick around for a few ballots and have his case debated some.

For his career, Lofton got 2428 hits and held a .299 batting average, both respectable figures. He was known for his speed too, and totaled 622 steals in his career at an 80% success rate, both good marks. In fact, he’s fifteenth all-time in steals. Really, all of this is impressive, but it’s very easy to ask what makes him stand out so far; that’s going to be the argument against Lofton, that he doesn’t stand out.

Which just isn’t true. All of this is just scratching the surface on his true value. For example, he walked 945 times in addition to his hits, giving him a .372 OBP. He also carried a decent slugging percentage of .423. Together, those give him a 107 OPS+, which sounds good, but not great. However, this doesn’t account for his base running, which we established is well above average.

Also, he translated that speed into superb fielding skills; both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference rate him at an 11.5 win defender over his career, which makes him one of the elite fielders of all-time (for example, he’s tied for 38th all-time in total zone rating, just for the sake reference). Also not taken into account is his position, center fielder, which is one of the harder positions to play on the diamond. This isn’t to say it’s as hard as catcher or shortstop, but it’s on par with third base in difficultly and closer to second base than right field. So, Lofton was an above average hitter and exceptional fielder and runner at a difficult position.

All of this translates to 65.3 bWAR and 66.3 fWAR, both well inside the normal boundaries of Cooperstown. Also, it’s worth noting that neither method completely accounts for base running; fWAR tries, but they only have data going back to 2002, meaning we’re missing more or less all of Lofton’s prime. He was worth positive value on the bases up until he retired (over a win, in fact), so by adding his 1991 through 2001 numbers can only increase his value.

This may make you very skeptical, but consider it this way: name every center fielder better than Kenny Lofton. Going by Fangraph’s sorting tool, Lofton is placed sixteenth all-time at the position. Those ahead of him are: Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, and Ken Griffey, Jr. (who are all sort of on their own tier); Al Simmons, Robin Yount, and Reggie Smith (all of whom spent more time at other positions); and then there’s sort of second tier, which includes Duke Snider, Billy Hamilton, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones (thanks to his legendary fielding), Richie Ashburn, Max Carey, and Lofton.* So, that means Lofton can roughly be put somewhere between 7th and 13th all-time.

*As of right now, Carlos Beltran stands one more season like last year from joining this group too.
This may not seem like a great case for induction...until you realize that there are 24 center fielders in the Hall of Fame. So, worst case scenario, you count both Robin Yount and Reggie Smith as center fielders despite their time being spent 50/50 at other positions AND you assume Lofton is the worst of the second tier (which I doubt), he’s still 15th all time, at a position with 24 Hall of Famers. More realistically, he’s better than something like half of the people at his position in the Hall.*

*Again, let’s say worst case scenario is true and he’s 15th. Of the 14 center fielders who would rank above him, 10 are currently enshrined, so saying he’s better than half of the Hall of Fame center fielders is indeed very realistic.

I realize this second half has mostly been more subjective arguments, but I still feel safe saying that Kenny Lofton should be in elected. I can’t see any major leaps in my reasoning, and Lofton still definitely rates better than most enshrined center fielders, possibly even top ten at his position all-time. If that doesn’t seem like serious Hall credentials, then I don’t know what is.

NL Central Predictions, or: How Not to Make Projections

David Schoenfield has been doing a position-by-position preview of every division in baseball to predict the winners. I admit I haven’t been following every part of the series, so I’m not sure if these are actually predictions; however, I read the NL Central edition out of curiosity, and I figured I had to address it.

For those who haven’t read it, Schoenfield basically looks through every team’s projected line-up and awards points based on who is the best at each position; in the case of the NL Central, 6 points for the best, 5 for second, and so on. He then adds the total points for each team and voila!-a prediction. By this system, he has the Brewers beating the Reds and Cardinals, 77-73-68. This actually shocked me; I think the Reds and Cardinals will be battling for the top spot, with the Brewers needing some luck or injuries on the other teams to make a run.

Updated Re-Run: Name That Molina! Molina Mania Edition

This is a silly piece I did when I first started writing for Bleacher Report. I kind of liked it, so I decided to re-run it with some updates, which appear in italics.

And now, it’s time for America’s favorite game show, Name That Molina! I can tell you’re all thrilled.

Yes, since late 1998, the Amazing Molina Brothers have graced MLB with their golden catcher’s mitts, and, occasionally, with serviceable bats (with a grand combined total of one [now two] full year[s] with an OPS+ over 100). Despite coming from the same family, there are many distinguishing characteristics for each brother. For our quiz, we’ll start with an easy question: match each of the brothers to their position.

Brothers:
Bengie
Jose
Yadier

Position:
Catcher
Catcher
Catcher

Okay, that was an easy one. But they won’t all be as easy as that warm-up. So, Question 1: Which one has a World Series Ring?

Multi-Team Hall of Famers

So, Mike Piazza seems to think of himself as a Met. I always find these topics interesting; for Hall of Famers that split their time between two teams, which one do they get on their plaques? It’s hard to find these types of players, but I think that just makes it all the more interesting.

The two obvious ways to think about this; you can go by games played, or where they played better. There are other things you can consider; for example, maybe you give a team extra credit for developing a player. Grant Brisbee points out that you can go the other way, giving a team extra credit for spending their money on a guy. Then there are things like if they won a championship with a team, whether there was anything notable about their stint with a team, and so on. All of these would color what team we associate with a player, even before considering any personal biases we might have.

With that in mind, I want to try and figure out (a) who the future split-team Hall members will be and (b) what team they will go in with. I can’t guarantee that every player I name will make the Hall, though, no matter how deserving. I’ll try to keep my reasoning to players who at least have a legitimate Hall of Fame case; for the players not bound for Cooperstown, think of this more as a discussion of “What is their signature team?”.

More Fun with Retired Numbers

Continuing with my recent trivia craze, I decided to publish the Best Players Without a Retired Number on Sporcle. The quiz is exactly what it sounds like; going by bWAR, who are the best players who are yet to be honored by a team. The players are on the list for a variety of reasons, and this may be worth an in depth look later. The one requirement I imposed was that the players have to have worn a number during their careers. The numbers listed are those that a player wore in multiple seasons, in chronological order of when they first wore them. There may also be bonuses-happy searching!

Fighting Tomorrow's Ignorance Now

This past Hall of Fame debate season, I noticed something sort of depressing. So many people dismissed highly qualified (or even over-qualified) players for Cooperstown based on things as small as “He didn’t feel like a Hall of Famer” or “I can’t remember thinking he was a Hall of Famer”.

This is really disappointing. First of all, people (especially the writers and voters) need to realize that the Hall is not nearly as exclusive as they seem to think. If you are an official voter, every player is worth at least a moment of reflection and a look at their Baseball-Reference page. You might be missing out on a player who would raise the Hall’s standards simply because they have a low “Gut Factor”. That’s just not the way to go about it. At least take the time to see if there’s a convincing case to be made. There are, what, thirty-some players per year? If you put a minimum two minutes into looking at each player, that’s an hour. I’d say a Hall ballot is worth at least an hour of your time, right? And it gives you an excuse to revisit memories, or at least get lost in Baseball-Reference. And if you still aren’t convinced, you can spread that time out. It’s not like we don’t already know who will be ballot next year, or the year after (or the year after that, or the year after that, or...).

However, I realize not everyone will follow this rule of thumb. So, I figured I’d do what I can to start combating misconceptions that will pop up when a player eventually reaches the ballot. Maybe if I start early enough, these ideas will work their way into the collective subconscious by then. Hey, if nothing else, it’s worth a shot.

So, I’ll start by trying to get ahead on next year’s ballot. Curt Schilling is coming up next year, and I’ve already seen people saying that he just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. These people are wrong.

Yet More Trivia! Retired Numbers Edition

I published another Sporcle Quiz. For this one, you have to name one player that's worn each number that's been retired. Enjoy!

Potential Deal Reaction: Johnny Damon to Orioles

Apparently, the Orioles are looking at Johnny Damon. I've seen some mixed reactions to this, and, as an Orioles fan, I feel the need to defend it. Not because the front office is perfect or anything; just because it's not necessarily a bad move.

It's easy to compare this to the Vladimir Guerrero signing last year, which went rather poorly. I don't think that's quite fair, though. Last year, the corner spots were rather crowded:
1B: Derrek Lee/Mark Reynolds
3B: Mark Reynolds/Josh Bell
LF: Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold
(RF: Nick Markakis)
DH: Vladimir Guerrero/Luke Scott/Mark Reynolds

50 Best Players Not in the Hall of Fame Wrap-Up and Analysis

Well, it only took a month, but I finally wrapped up my explanations on my 50 Best Players Not in Cooperstown ballot. I thought I might want to add some thoughts, though. This will probably come out as a jumble of assorted ideas, but I would still like to share all of them. Oh well; it is what it is.

First, a position-by-position look at who I added to Cooperstown (going by primary position):

P: 10
C: 4
1B: 8 (although one of them is Pete Rose, who more so lacks a better position)
2B: 4
3B: 9
SS: 4
LF: 3
CF: 1
RF: 6
DH: 1

Part of my goal was to draw from the more underrepresented positions, which would be third base, catcher, and center field. Well, I definitely accomplished the third base one. Catcher, I did okay; the only other one I may have added was Gene Tenace, and even then, I don’t feel too terrible leaving him off.

Center Field looks disappointing. Reggie Smith might count as a center fielder under the Ernie Banks/Andre Dawson principle-he had his best seasons in center, and was just short of playing 50% of his games there (879 in right to 808 in center). Even then, that still just makes it 6 right fielders and 2 center fielders. What gives?