Editor-Theo’s Note: When I started work on this piece, the question of “should the Astros sell at the deadline” was looking a little more open-ended. However, while that question is looking fairly resolved now, this piece is just as much a case study on the history and past successes of MLB teams doing total tear-downs and roster rebuilds. It’s definitely influenced my understanding of the process, and I think it’s worth sharing those results.
Over the last few years, I’ve been chipping away at a longer, deeper look at how team rebuilding goes, both during the rebuilding process itself and in the return to success period. It started as a look at the Orioles, with a front office full of Astros alumni now trying to repeat that magic a second time, then expanded to include the Braves as a sort of counterpoint who both mirrored and contrasted the Orioles and the Astros.
The project slowed down a little as I expanded the scope, to get a wider view of the options. I still want to finish that part someday; I have a whole bunch of data that I’ve collected, and while it can be a little overwhelming to sift through and distill into meaningful narratives and strategies (not to mention balancing all of that against everything else in life), I think the information there is useful.
However, a useful thing I think I can talk about from all of this is one specific slice of the rebuilding process! At the time I’m writing this, the trade deadline is rapidly approaching, and the Astros sit in a strange place. They’ve been carrying a losing record most of the season, and even now, are hovering around .500 while being outscored on the year… but it’s been a disappointing year across the board in the American League too, and they’re still very much in the thick of the playoff race
“Should the team go for it, or sell off and start a rebuild?” has been a prevalent question leading up to the trade deadline, and the answer right now seems to be “whatever facilitates making a playoff run this year”. There are of course fair questions about this, though; the team is unbalanced to say the least, with a Yordan Alvarez-heavy top covering up for a lot of holes in the roster. The team’s stash of prospects is relatively light too, which complicates attempts to patch up holes. And in contrast, there are some attractive pieces that the team could move for prospects: Christian Vázquez and Bryan Abreu are free agents after the season, while Christian Walker, Jeremy Peña, and Isaac Paredes will all hit free agency the year after (among others). And if you’re punting on next year too, you may as well also listen to offers on Hunter Brown and Yordan, since they’re hitting free agency after the 2028 season and will likely command a hefty return…
Up front, I will admit that I am personally against that, even before getting into the results of this study. The point of baseball is to win championships, and committing to a hard rebuild when you’re one game out of a playoff spot and carrying a potential Triple Crown winner feels like deliberately avoiding the whole reason for playing. I can see scenarios where this might make more sense, like from the back of a more crowded playoff chase, or following a spate of major injuries. The Astros are a middling roster with weak spots, but in a year where that describes the entire AL (and frankly, I’m not sure that won’t be the case next year, either). They’ve been outrunning a disastrous April (.308 winning percentage) as more and more players returned from injuries, so why not try and ride that success?
All that said… I do understand the thinking behind proposing a rebuild. The parts of a middling roster could turn into a juggernaut down the line, with good planning and some luck, and the Astros have ridden a similar process to success in the past. So, since I have all that rebuilding data, why not put it to good use? What might the Astros be forgoing by not selling off their stars on expiring contracts? How much does trading those players for prospects contribute to future success?
