Once again, this year, I’ve been given the chance to play
Out of the Park Baseball’s new edition and write about it. This year’s edition
is another wonderful entry in the series-I feel like it’s definitely the
smartest entry in the series yet, at least, with computer teams acting closer
and closer to real people. It certainly made my yearly alternate-history run a
lot more interesting, at least. So what alternate baseball history did it let
me try out this time?
As you may or may not be aware, the city of Cleveland just
saw its most recent best hope for a title in five decades end. Maybe
the Indians can turn it around and take the title this year, but realistically,
it seems that the city’s chances at a title will have to wait until 2016. One
thing that fascinates me about this drought, though, is the presence of the
1990s Indians. That group has to be the closest thing a baseball team can be to
a dynasty without actually winning anything. From 1994 to 2001, they averaged a .578 winning percentage
(about 93 and a half wins over a full season), peaking with a .644 mark in
1995. They made the playoffs six out of seven times (since 1994 was a strike
year) and won two pennants. They had a core that included peak play from Jim
Thome, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel, Roberto Alomar, and Albert Belle, all of whom have varying degrees of cases for the Hall of Fame. They couldn’t even find a
spot for future inner-circle
Hall of Pretty Great player Brian Giles because they were just too deep.
But they couldn’t capture that elusive title. Which is why
I’m giving them a chance to go back and claim it. I’m taking control of the
Indians starting in 1995, and seeing if I can guide them to their first World
Series win since 1948.
My thoughts are to at least start with mostly the same
roster as the actual 1995 team. I’m wary of a potential outfield and designated
hitter logjam, thanks to Manny, Lofton, Belle, Eddie Murray, Dave Winfield, and
prospects Giles and Jeromy Burnitz all needing to share four spots in the end.
But I can stash the last two in the minors, and Murray and Winfield are both
old and likely won’t each be on the roster the whole year. I do shop them
around a bit, especially since the rotation looks a little weak (Charles Nagy,
Mark Clark, Buddy Black, and aging Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser). In the
end, I hold steady, thinking I’ll let the roster make the decisions. If one of
the prospects plays his way into a job, or both of Murray and Winfield hit,
that’s a good problem to have.
The problem solves itself rather soon, though. I put Dave
Winfield on Waivers 22 games in to call up Jeromy Burnitz, who started the year
on the disabled list but apparently needed to be on the Major League roster.
Winfield hadn’t played an at-bat yet, and we were off to a good start at 14-8,
but the decision apparently hit fan interest hard according to the owner (who
had even given me a mandate to resign Winfield). I look it up and realize that
Winfield only played in 46 games for the Indians in real life, though, so I
feel even less bad about this decision. Anyway, Seattle claimed him.
The first month went well, with Albert Belle picking up
Player of the Month. He and Thome each won a Player of the Week award as well.
However, Omar Vizquel went down on May 1 with an injury. Thankfully, my sub was
on a bit of a hot streak…until he went down two days later. I wind up claiming
someone off waivers to plug the hole. We win our 20th game later in
the month (for a 20-9), but then Jim Thome immediately gets hurt. Luckily, it
looks like I don’t need to put him on the DL.
A little later, Darren Daulton goes on the trade block.
They’re willing to take Orel Hershiser for him, straight-up. I don’t need a
catcher thanks to Sandy Alomar Jr., but Hershiser has faltered hard, and at 36,
I don’t think he’s going to get much better. I’m hoping I can work out a 3-way
deal where I immediately flip the superior-rated (and slightly younger) Daulton
for pitching help. Promising prospect Chad Ogea can fill in if there’s any time
in-between trades. I end up dealing Daulton immediately for Mark Portugal from
the Giants. I’m a little disappointed with the results, but it makes sense
(this is also what gives me the sense of a stronger AI-I used to use this
strategy frequently, trading up rather easily. Now it seems the computer
knows.)
At the end of May, Manny Ramirez strains his lat and needs a
6 week DL trip. I call up Brian Giles to fill his roster spot. It’s still going
to hurt, as he had a 156 OPS+ so far on the season, but my lineup is doing
pretty well. We enter June in first, with a 31-20 record and a 2.5 game lead in
the division.
I see in my player updates that Carlos Baerga’s skills are
trending down despite him being just 26. I know he fizzled out young, but he’s
doing so well this season (the game puts him at 2.4 WAR already). Still, I shop
him out of curiosity and see that the Yankees are offering John Olerud for
him.* He’d make a fine upgrade from Paul Sorrento over at first, but that’d
leave me without a second basemen. And I can’t just blow up a first-place
roster like this, right? Still, the nagging idea is there. (And this is to say
nothing of me still agonizing about what to do with the outfield; Albert Belle
is my easily best player right now, best in the league, in fact, but I could
certainly trade him for an ace for my still-weak rotation and sub in Brian
Giles and be mostly fine after this season, right?...) And first baseman Paul
Sorrento’s been a total zero at first…
*The Yankees also have
John Olerud, in this alternate universe, thanks to trading off Jorge Posada.
He’d be dealt twice more from there before the year ended, going from the Blue
Jays to the Dodgers to the Brewers.
But then I notice that Sorrento and Baerga are only signed
through this season, and Olerud’s good through 2000, while I could flip
Sorrento for Mike Bordick according to my intel. An Omar Vizquel-Mike Bordick
double play combo would be a dream to watch, defensively… And it would save us
about half a million, which isn’t bad in 1995 money.
Everything trending down at once in-game is worrisome, and
as they say, fortune favors the bold. What the heck; I pull the trigger on both
moves (but not before saving) the day after the scouting report comes out.
(Olerud goes 4-5 with a double in his debut, a 13-3 win; hopefully a good sign;
Baerga, meanwhile, goes 0-3)
I also deal Randy Ready, who I picked off of waivers to
cover when my two shortstops went down, for Jesse Orosco. Didn’t know what else
to do with him, was surprised anyone wanted him. That’ll make the so-far
below-average pen a little bit stronger.
Brian Giles is doing pretty well in short service time, and
Jeromy Burnitz is serving admirably as an injury stopgap. This means my crowded
outfield might be a problem soon, but a good one. In the meantime, I focus on
locking in the core a little longer;I negotiate a 3 year, $9 million extension
for starting catcher Sandy Alomar Jr, and sign Omar Vizquel to a 5 year, $3.5
million extension. Also around this time,
Eddie Murray gets his 3000 hit for us., as was expected.
By July 1, we’ve fallen hard. A 7-game losing streak (which
included a sweep at the hands of new division leaders Chicago) has left us
41-38. We’re 7.5 out of the division and 5 out of the Wild Card. My moves don’t
seem to be the problem, though. Olerud has almost kept up his batting since the
trade (133 OPS+ and 1.2 WAR before, 119
and 0.5 since), while Baerga has comparatively floundered (134 and 2.3 before
compared to 78 and 0.1 since). Meanwhile, Bordick was hitting better than
Sorrento before the trade, and has combined with prospect David Bell to form an
admirable tandem at second, while Sorrento has started just once since the
trade almost a month ago.
We have far and away the best lineup in the league, even
with Manny out. Our 511 runs are 30 ahead of second place Seattle. We’re middle
of the pack (sixth) in runs allowed, nothing too terrible. So it seems it’s
just a spot of bad luck.* Hopefully, we can bounce back. Still, it looks like
the bullpen could use a little shuffling, so I demote struggling closer Jose
Mesa.
*(I check, and we’re 4
games behind our Pythagorean record, while the White Sox are 4 ahead of
theirs. Of course.)
Then, Mark Portugal goes down for the seson. He wasn’t
irreplaceable, but my staff is already pretty thin… I deal Jason Grimsley
(stuck in AAA) to Royals for Mark Gubzica. He’s struggling, but I just need
innings at this point, so a reclamation project might work (except he gets
injured in late July).
We limp into the All-Star Break, 46-41, and now only 6 back
of the division and 3 in the Wild Card. It’s great that we can keep pace with
all these injuries, but we’ll need to start picking up ground soon. We send
three representatives to the Midsummer Classic: Jim Thome, Albert Belle, and
ace-setup-man-turned-closer Eric Plunk.
Manny comes off the DL on July 29. We’re 7.5 back, still in
second place in the division and the wild card, though. This spot of hope is
short-lived, as John Olerud gets injured in early August, out for 2 months.
This isn’t the year, it begins to seem. Giles comes back up, a week after he
was demoted to make room for Manny. Olerud’s final line with us is
.289/.369/.492, a 125 OPS+, and 1.2 WAR. Both figures top Baerga, who has only
recently moved above replacement level since becoming a Yankee (his ratings
have dropped even further, though, and it seems he’s missed a dozen games or so
due to injury). While it may not have been a perfect outcome, it seems I did
the best I could do, given the circumstances.
I try and trade struggling (still) setup man Jose Mesa for
Mike Stanton; it fails, because it’s a waiver deal. Strangely, it fails because
of teams (plural) claiming Mesa and his 8+ ERA. Obviously, none wanted him
badly enough to take him, though, and I need someone to absorb innings on a
pitching staff that’s rapidly taking in water.
About halfway through August, and we’re making a late run.
Only 5 back from Chicago. We’re now third in Wild Card race behind both New
York and Boston (first time all-year we aren’t second), but 4.5 back from
Chicago. Maybe it happens? We keep treading water right where we are for a few
days. And then Albert Belle gets hurt for 2 weeks. Now we’re almost certainly
done.
On a lighter note, I notice that Oakland puts Paul Sorrento
on the trade block, so that deal seems to have worked out.
August first, and we’re now 69-65. 7 Games back. The team
continues to rake (30 run lead on the second best team), but our pitching has
slipped to fourth-most runs allowed in the league. It doesn’t help we’re 6
games below our Pythagorean now. Our last chance sort of slips away, as we lose
2 of 3 to Chicago in mid-September.
We finish 83-79, and in second place in the division, but
there’s a lot to be excited for. As mentioned, our lineup was dominant-1039
runs scored, nearly 30 ahead of second place in the AL and more than the actual
1995 Indians scored per-game. Our bullpen wasn’t that bad in the end either,
finishing fourth in ERA. Unfortunately, only two rotations in the AL allowed a
higher ERA than ours. Jim Thome and Albert Belle finished first and fifth in
WAR and second and fourth in wOBA. If I had only gotten more games out of the
core (Thome/Belle/Manny/Lofton/Sandy Alomar/the Olerud-Baerga combo), who knows
how many runs we could have scored. Even the role players did a great job, with
Bordick, Burnitz, Vizquel, Murray, and Giles all making significant
contributions in part-time roles.
The challenge will be figuring out where to go with this
promising team from here on out. Fixing the rotation will clearly be the top
priority for 1996; it was obviously the weakest part, and Dennis Martinez is
retiring while 38-year old Buddy Black is a free agent. Overall though, the
core seems to be in order for next year-the most notable free agents are all
relievers, Mesa, Dennis Cook, and setup man Paul Assenmacher (and given the
year Mesa had, only those last two will be challenging to replace). Now I just
need to figure out where to find those aces I need…
As a bonus epilogue, the results of the postseason:
Orioles defeat Angels, White Sox defeat Yankees in ALDS
Expos defeat Astros, Giants defeat Braves in NLDS
Orioles sweep White Sox in ALCS
Expos defeat Giants in NLCS
Orioles sweep Expos
in World Series
Looks like a boring postseason, as teams that lost the
series went a combined 5-24.
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