How David Ortiz Ranks from 2000 to 2013

I saw an article the other day (at ESPN) commenting on David Ortiz’s Hall of Fame chances. The basic conclusion was that he’s not there yet, which I agree with. But this got me wondering; Ortiz’s chances will be based entirely on his hitting. How does he stack up?

Well, went to Fangraphs and looked at 2000 through 2013 hitting stats, which includes almost all of Ortiz’s productive playing time. Then, I sorted by adjusted weighted runs created (wRC+). Basically, the stat accounts for home park and league averages and determines how productive a player was compared to league average (it works like OPS+; 100 is average, 120 is 20% better, and so on).

Is Albert Pujols on His Way to a Bounce Back Year?

Much has been made of the Angels’ struggles, particularly Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The major signings of the last two off seasons, the pair or them has disappointed. Josh Hamilton’s struggles appear to have started last year, and stem mainly from his declining ability to control the strike zone.

Similar claims were made last season about Pujols after his early struggles. For the fourth straight season, his walk rate and his isolated slugging declined, while his percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone increased.

For his struggles then, it appears he may be on to something now. All of those trends have reversed. Pujols has swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone, and his walk rate (10.9%) is greater than either of the past two seasons (7.8%, 9.4%), although not quite as high as it was back in 2010 or 2009 (14.7%, 16.4%). Still, it’s encouraging to see. Combine that with a .228 batting average on balls in play and you can see why his .237/.319/.407 line might improve, even if his isolated slugging is at an all-time low for him.

Except has Pujols really regained his patience? It’s interesting to note that his strike out percentage (11.6%) is second only to his rookie season as his career high. That seems to go against the earlier statement. Until you break down his numbers further, that is.

Pujols batted in front of Hamilton for most of the season to date, and amassed 6 intentional walks in that time. That seems right for his peak, but the past two seasons, he’s only been intentionally walked 15 and 16 times over a whole season. Pitchers definitely seemed to be pitching around him to face the weakened Hamilton.

Taking out his six intentional walks drops him down to 9 walks on the year total, which, through 132 plate appearances (again, removing those six), puts him at 6.8% walk rate, below even last year’s low. That would also drop his in-base percentage down from .319 to .287. Even halving his intentional walks (to put it more in line with the last two years) leaves him with marks of 8.9% (better than last year, but still below two years ago) and .303.

Overall, it looks like he hasn’t worsened from last year too much, but he’s still not on pace to return to being the Pujols of old.

Out of the Park Baseball 14 and the 2001 Astros: Part 2

Last time we checked on the 2001A Astros in Out of the Park Baseball, they were preparing to head into the season with a newly revamped lineup and rotation. At least, I wasn’t considering making any more moves, and it was only January. So, I kept an eye on the trading block and waiver wire while slowly moving towards opening day.

2001A had some divergences from our time stream, beyond me combining the 2001 Astros, 2001 Pirates, and 2004 Cardinals. For example, Brian Roberts retired in February to become a professional golfer, the Red Sox traded away future captain Jason Varitek for a minor leaguer and bench depth, and John Rocker injured himself in a freak treadmill accident. A few small deal went on across the league. I myself turned down an offer or two to swap bench players while making a small minor league signing or two. R.A. Dickey and Juan Rivera were among my minor league moves; although both wouldn’t establish themselves until well past 2001, I figured it couldn’t hurt to add them.

Out of the Park Baseball 14 and the 2001 Astros: Part 1

Out of the Park is one of the all time great baseball games. So, when they came to a deal with the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I jumped at the chance to try Out of the Park Baseball 14.

Out of the Park is a baseball simulator, and a giant of the genre. You can simulate this year, create an entirely fictional league, or run a past season as the GM of any team. As tempting as making a fictional league and reporting on it sounded (I still may do this some day though), I wanted to try something out using a real team.

A past year especially would be interesting-could I take a great team in history to a championship? And since I’m a big fan of teams without World Series victories yet, how about taking one of them. I thought about using the Mariners or Expos, but eventually settled on the Houston Astros. I have some ties to the team, most notably being that I have lived in Houston, so I have a soft spot for them.

Could the Phillies Pull Off a "Red Sox"-Type Trade?

The other day, Dan Szymborski wrote an interesting article for ESPN where he looked at the current state of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies, just over one year removed from a 102-win season, are off to a 9-14 start this season, and Szymborski recommends a rebuild for the team.

That may sound harsh for a team that was that good that recently, but this very much seems to be the case in this instance. The division-rival Braves and Nationals look to be the strongest teams in the league, giving them a big-enough challenge to start with. On top of that, the roster is looking older and more broken down as time goes on.

Why RBIs are Dumb, Reason #3023

Justin Upton is off to a hot start; he's probably the hottest player in baseball right now no matter how you look at it. Whether you take a traditional look (10 home runs in 19 games) or a more advanced one (1.4 WAR, Fangraphs), he more or less leads the league.

But, as Hardball Talk's Matthew Pouliot writes, he still is missing something from his game: RBIs. Upton has only 14 of them, despite his 10 home runs. That seems incredible-is Justin Upton un-clutch?

That's a ridiculous thought. Let's look at Thursday's box score, the first game of a double header and the game where Upton hit number 10 out. Upton batted third-that's unsurprising. Ahead of him in the lineup? Andrelton Simmons and Justin's older brother B.J. They have on-base percentages of .292 and .247 so far, respectively. That won't last, but for the time being, the three batters ahead of Justin in the order are a pitcher and two guys with OBPs below .300.

People have to be on base for you to drive them in.

EDIT: After game two, those figures are now 11 home runs, 1.9 WAR, and 16 RBIs.

The Battle of the Titans: Who Would Win?

Bill James’ Online Mailbag had an interesting question the other day: Could a team of the best players not in the Hall of Fame beat a team of the worst players in the Hall?

Bill’s answer? Of course; you’re picking the best players from one group and the worst from another, and especially with a group with such amorphous boundaries and a lot of overlap, that isn’t really a close call.

But what about a variation of that question: Could a team of the best players not in the Hall beat a team of median Hall of Famers?

The first question would be what would each team look like? The question asker offered his own idea of a full roster, but I want to try and construct my own lineup. Going by position for the best snubs (which is primarily drawing from 50 Best Players Not in the Hall list):

Scott Rolen: Reflecting on an All-Time Great

There hasn’t been an official announcement yet, but each day further along the season gets, the less likely it gets that Scott Rolen will play in 2013. He was flip-flopping on whether to hang his cleats up all winter, with even the last news from him being uncertain (although leaning towards retirement). Unless the Dodgers or some other team realizes that their third base hole is worse than they thought midseason, he’ll probably be sitting this year out. It is somewhat fitting though, if upsetting, that one of the best and most underrated players ever can’t even be the best third baseman to retire this season.

Johan Santana, Dizzy Dean, Sandy Koufax, and Aces

Last week, Johan Santana tore a muscle in his shoulder, more or less knocking him out for the rest of the season and casting doubt on his chances of ever pitching again. I do think we’ll see a little more of him, just because someone will want to take a chance on him once he’s back. However, just in case, people are already discussing his place among the all-time greats.

The consensus seems to be that he comes up short. He did only pitch for twelve seasons, after all, and he’s been hurt several times after all. I wouldn’t agree with those sentiments, though. There are actually several Hall of Fame pitchers with a similar amount of work in their careers.

2013 Predictions: NL West

And lastly, we move on to the division of the reigning World Series champions. But the Giants find themselves being challenged this season by a Dodgers team that spent big this offseason, as well as the retooled Diamondbacks. I know that this is a little late for the start of the season, but most teams are only 1/81 of the way through the season-these still count as predictions.

2013 Predictions: AL West

I didn’t quite finish this series before opening day like I wanted, but I still intend to finish it. There are several other stories I would like to cover-most notably Johan Santana’s injury and possible retirement. Those will still come; but first, this.

The AL West may be the best division in baseball this year. It might have been last year, when the A’s, Rangers, and Angels all topped 89 wins. Although the Astros have joined the division, the only other division with that accomplishment (the AL East) seems to have gotten worse, while the AL West seems to have only gotten better. With the three teams at the top again looking to be in a dogfight in 2013, how will it all shake out?

Knee-Jerk Reactions: More Mega Deals, This Time with Buster Posey

And the massive contracts continue to roll in. Following in the steps of Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander, Buster Posey has signed a $167 million, nine-year deal (Andrew Baggarly). Verlander remains the largest deal signed on today, but those two deals are still a combined total of $347 million guaranteed (not counting Posey or Verlander’s $22 million options, or the sorta-less-than-mega $32 million deal Paul Goldschmidt also signed today).

Knee-Jerk Reactions: Justin Verlander Tops Adam Wainwright's Mega-Extension

Adam Wainwright isn’t the only ace to sign a massive extension this week; he’s not even the one with the biggest deal now. Justin Verlander just signed the largest deal for a pitcher in history, signing through 2019 for $180 million. He was already under contract through 2014 with $40 million left on his deal, so this is more a $140 million over 5 year set up (with an $22 million option for 2020). How does it compare to Wainwright’s, or the rest of the league?

Knee-Jerk Reactions: Cardinals Extend Adam Wainwright

With less than a week until opening day, the Cardinals finished a last-minute extension with Adam Wainwright, according to Ken Rosenthal. And not just any extension; a massive 5 year, $97.5 million deal. My first instinct was more or less “that’s a lot of money for a 31-year old”, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a bad deal. But a 31-year old a year removed from Tommy John surgery? Could Wainwright still live up to that deal?

2013 Predictions: AL Central

Despite producing the AL pennant winner, the AL Central was pretty clearly the weakest division in baseball last season. It was the only division without a 90-game winner, and it had the lowest average record despite the only two 100-game losers both playing in the NL Central. And even then, one of those two teams (the Astros, of course) moved to the AL West, leaving the AL Central the far and away favorite for “worst team in the majors”.

And yet, the AL Central may again produce the AL Pennant winner. If you had to bet on any one team to make the World Series, the safest bet is usually to go with the team with the easiest path to the playoffs. Whether that’s good or not, it means the AL Central deserves as much attention as any other division. Do they actually deserve it this year though?