Could the Phillies Pull Off a "Red Sox"-Type Trade?

The other day, Dan Szymborski wrote an interesting article for ESPN where he looked at the current state of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies, just over one year removed from a 102-win season, are off to a 9-14 start this season, and Szymborski recommends a rebuild for the team.

That may sound harsh for a team that was that good that recently, but this very much seems to be the case in this instance. The division-rival Braves and Nationals look to be the strongest teams in the league, giving them a big-enough challenge to start with. On top of that, the roster is looking older and more broken down as time goes on.

Why RBIs are Dumb, Reason #3023

Justin Upton is off to a hot start; he's probably the hottest player in baseball right now no matter how you look at it. Whether you take a traditional look (10 home runs in 19 games) or a more advanced one (1.4 WAR, Fangraphs), he more or less leads the league.

But, as Hardball Talk's Matthew Pouliot writes, he still is missing something from his game: RBIs. Upton has only 14 of them, despite his 10 home runs. That seems incredible-is Justin Upton un-clutch?

That's a ridiculous thought. Let's look at Thursday's box score, the first game of a double header and the game where Upton hit number 10 out. Upton batted third-that's unsurprising. Ahead of him in the lineup? Andrelton Simmons and Justin's older brother B.J. They have on-base percentages of .292 and .247 so far, respectively. That won't last, but for the time being, the three batters ahead of Justin in the order are a pitcher and two guys with OBPs below .300.

People have to be on base for you to drive them in.

EDIT: After game two, those figures are now 11 home runs, 1.9 WAR, and 16 RBIs.

The Battle of the Titans: Who Would Win?

Bill James’ Online Mailbag had an interesting question the other day: Could a team of the best players not in the Hall of Fame beat a team of the worst players in the Hall?

Bill’s answer? Of course; you’re picking the best players from one group and the worst from another, and especially with a group with such amorphous boundaries and a lot of overlap, that isn’t really a close call.

But what about a variation of that question: Could a team of the best players not in the Hall beat a team of median Hall of Famers?

The first question would be what would each team look like? The question asker offered his own idea of a full roster, but I want to try and construct my own lineup. Going by position for the best snubs (which is primarily drawing from 50 Best Players Not in the Hall list):

Scott Rolen: Reflecting on an All-Time Great

There hasn’t been an official announcement yet, but each day further along the season gets, the less likely it gets that Scott Rolen will play in 2013. He was flip-flopping on whether to hang his cleats up all winter, with even the last news from him being uncertain (although leaning towards retirement). Unless the Dodgers or some other team realizes that their third base hole is worse than they thought midseason, he’ll probably be sitting this year out. It is somewhat fitting though, if upsetting, that one of the best and most underrated players ever can’t even be the best third baseman to retire this season.

Johan Santana, Dizzy Dean, Sandy Koufax, and Aces

Last week, Johan Santana tore a muscle in his shoulder, more or less knocking him out for the rest of the season and casting doubt on his chances of ever pitching again. I do think we’ll see a little more of him, just because someone will want to take a chance on him once he’s back. However, just in case, people are already discussing his place among the all-time greats.

The consensus seems to be that he comes up short. He did only pitch for twelve seasons, after all, and he’s been hurt several times after all. I wouldn’t agree with those sentiments, though. There are actually several Hall of Fame pitchers with a similar amount of work in their careers.

2013 Predictions: NL West

And lastly, we move on to the division of the reigning World Series champions. But the Giants find themselves being challenged this season by a Dodgers team that spent big this offseason, as well as the retooled Diamondbacks. I know that this is a little late for the start of the season, but most teams are only 1/81 of the way through the season-these still count as predictions.

2013 Predictions: AL West

I didn’t quite finish this series before opening day like I wanted, but I still intend to finish it. There are several other stories I would like to cover-most notably Johan Santana’s injury and possible retirement. Those will still come; but first, this.

The AL West may be the best division in baseball this year. It might have been last year, when the A’s, Rangers, and Angels all topped 89 wins. Although the Astros have joined the division, the only other division with that accomplishment (the AL East) seems to have gotten worse, while the AL West seems to have only gotten better. With the three teams at the top again looking to be in a dogfight in 2013, how will it all shake out?

Knee-Jerk Reactions: More Mega Deals, This Time with Buster Posey

And the massive contracts continue to roll in. Following in the steps of Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander, Buster Posey has signed a $167 million, nine-year deal (Andrew Baggarly). Verlander remains the largest deal signed on today, but those two deals are still a combined total of $347 million guaranteed (not counting Posey or Verlander’s $22 million options, or the sorta-less-than-mega $32 million deal Paul Goldschmidt also signed today).

Knee-Jerk Reactions: Justin Verlander Tops Adam Wainwright's Mega-Extension

Adam Wainwright isn’t the only ace to sign a massive extension this week; he’s not even the one with the biggest deal now. Justin Verlander just signed the largest deal for a pitcher in history, signing through 2019 for $180 million. He was already under contract through 2014 with $40 million left on his deal, so this is more a $140 million over 5 year set up (with an $22 million option for 2020). How does it compare to Wainwright’s, or the rest of the league?

Knee-Jerk Reactions: Cardinals Extend Adam Wainwright

With less than a week until opening day, the Cardinals finished a last-minute extension with Adam Wainwright, according to Ken Rosenthal. And not just any extension; a massive 5 year, $97.5 million deal. My first instinct was more or less “that’s a lot of money for a 31-year old”, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a bad deal. But a 31-year old a year removed from Tommy John surgery? Could Wainwright still live up to that deal?

2013 Predictions: AL Central

Despite producing the AL pennant winner, the AL Central was pretty clearly the weakest division in baseball last season. It was the only division without a 90-game winner, and it had the lowest average record despite the only two 100-game losers both playing in the NL Central. And even then, one of those two teams (the Astros, of course) moved to the AL West, leaving the AL Central the far and away favorite for “worst team in the majors”.

And yet, the AL Central may again produce the AL Pennant winner. If you had to bet on any one team to make the World Series, the safest bet is usually to go with the team with the easiest path to the playoffs. Whether that’s good or not, it means the AL Central deserves as much attention as any other division. Do they actually deserve it this year though?

Kyle Lohse Signs with the Brewers (and I Just Finished My NL Central Predictions...)

The Brewers have signed the last remaining major free agent, getting starter Kyle Lohse for $33 million over 3 years. And I just finished previewing the NL Central, too. How does this mess up these predictions?

Not too terribly, actually. I originally had them as a fourth-place, just below .500 team. Now? I guess I’d put them at just over .500, in the same camp as the Pirates. Maybe with some good luck, they can make the NL Central a three-way race.

Lohse had a career-year in 2012, posting bests in ERA (2.86), Fielding Independent Pitching (3.51), K/9 (6.10), BB/9 (1.62), innings (211), and WAR (3.6, Fangraphs). That’s a little worrisome for a 34-year old pitcher, but I think he has at least one more season in him as a solid number two or three starter. I’m a little more skeptical of how his 2014 and 2015 seasons will be, but for a Brewers team that had Marco Estrada as their number two yesterday, it’s hard to argue this isn’t an improvement for 2013. And $11 million per year doesn’t seem like a wild overpay.

Like I said yesterday, the Brewers will almost certainly post a strong line-up again, barring injuries. They led the league in runs scored last year (776, 11 above second place St. Louis), which leaves them room to be good even if they fall off. Anything that helps them improve on their 733 runs allowed (thirteenth in the NL) is good. Losing a draft pick, especially to a rival in St. Louis, will hurt with their rather thin farm system. However, the Brewers as they are currently constructed are still in a win-now mode. If I thought they were an 81-win team yesterday, this would put them in the neighborhood of 84-86 wins, and from there, it’s just a few breaks to be in contention.

Still, I’m standing by my predictions from yesterday. I think this makes Milwaukee a just-over .500 team, and I’ll still bet on the Pirates’ upside to top that. If anything, this will take wins away from the Rangers or Indians in my predictions (those are where I had been predicting him to land). Still, I do think it’s a good, sensible move for the Brewers to make.

2013 Predictions: NL Central

We continue our prediction series by heading westward, this time touching on the NL Central. 2013 will represent the first time ever the NL Central has had only five teams, with the Astros moving on to the AL West. That probably means several lost wins for all of these teams, but I still expect the top two teams in this division to match the top two from the NL East for best teams in the league (with maybe one NL West team thrown into that mix for good measure, but I’ll get to them later). With that, what exactly can we expect from those two teams, as well as the other three?

2013 Predictions: NL East

For Round 2 of my 2013 predictions, we’ll stay on the East Coast and jump leagues to the Senior Circuit. I would say the NL East is right there with the AL East and West in the running for best division in baseball, in part due to the strength at the top. The bottom is weaker than in either of those two, which probably drags it below them, but I would still say it’s the cream of the crop in the National League. So, starting with last year’s division winner, what can we expect in 2013?

2013 Predictions: AL East

With the season just around the corner, I wanted to begin previewing how the season will go. I like to be pretty in depth with my predictions, looking at last year and then what will be different. With that, I looked at each team’s major changes (drawn from this article, although I was kind of hoping Kyle Lohse would be signed by now to give me a complete sense of the additions) and basically what else will be different.

I know I already wrote about the AL East, but this will give a chance to (A) write a non-Orioles-centric article, and (B) test out a new format. So with that, let’s look at the teams, starting with last year’s division winners.