Philadelphia Phillies Should Be Selling at the Deadline

We’re drawing closer and closer to the July 31st Trade Deadline, and teams are starting to feel out their places in the buyer-seller dynamic. One surprising possible buyer, though, is the Philadelphia Phillies.

As we leave the All-Star Break, the Phillies stand at exactly .500, 48-48. They’re only 6.5 games behind the division-leading Braves and 5 behind the second wild card Reds. All in all, that seems like solid reasoning, right? Maybe the record isn’t encouraging, but only 5 games behind a playoff spot is good.

Retired Numbers Series: Milwaukee Brewers

Following the departure of the Braves in 1965, Milwaukee managed to draw in the Seattle Pilots a year after the latter were a part of the second round of 1960s expansion, renaming them the Brewers. Since then, the Brewers have become both the smallest market with a team and a huge local draw. How does the future look like it will play out for this little team that could?

2013 All-Star Roster Corrections: NL Edition

I would say Bruce Bochy/the NL All-Star Squad out-sensibled Jim Leyland/the AL/whoever’s responsible for the mess that is All-Star selection. While making the roster, I felt like it was the other way around; I was making all sorts of changes on the NL roster. Then I realized that a lot of that was fixing problems the fans made in voting, something that miraculously (almost) didn’t happen at all in the AL. Between these two, these may be the most reasonable All-Star Rosters that I’ve covered.

On top of that, a lot of the picks in the NL wound up feeling almost like personal preference picks, like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic (or Queen Mary*, depending on how you feel about the NL’s chances this year, I suppose).

*I guess this sort of destroys the comparison, though. Either way.

I would like to add that, where the AL is stacked at second and third base, the NL is well-stocked behind the plate, at shortstop, and in the outfield. I couldn’t even fit people like Brian McCann or Evan Gattis in, and young stars like Giancarlo Stanton and Jason Heyward had just enough bad luck in their years to let a bunch of other players into the discussion (but more on the mess that is the outfield once I get to it).

2013 All-Star Roster Corrections: AL Edition

Now, this is the article where I would normally take a faux-condescending tone to mock MLB’s All-Star game selections. After all, that’s what I’ve done for the past three years. But this year, the rosters aren’t as mind-bogglingly awful as they have been in those past few years. Maybe they’ve been listening to me finally.

This isn’t to say that there aren’t problems, though. We’re mostly just short on the completely clueless picks, with them being replaced by picks that are just disappointing. Or maybe it’s just me learning to not get as bent out of shape over the All-Star. Either way, there are still corrections to make.

Do Yasiel Puig and Bryce Harper Belong in the All-Star Game?

Bryce Harper and Yasiel Puig have been stirring up a lot of discussion lately with regards to the All Star Game. They make for an interesting discussion on the meaning of the All Star Game, whether it’s for the best players this season, or the best players for the last calendar year, or the most notable players, or something in between.

From one aspect, if your goal is to make the best team possible for the purpose of winning the game, doesn’t taking Harper and Puig (injuries aside) make the most sense? They’re some of the most talented players in the game. But if you are talking from a standpoint of performance, can you still justify taking them?

Retired Numbers Series: Oakland Athletics

The Athletics have arguably had more identities than any other team in the Majors. With a history spanning three cities (and possibly counting), over 110 seasons, and several distinct eras, they should have numerous interesting players to honor. However, no original team, in the American or National league, has as few retired numbers as the A’s. What does the future hold for them?

Three Ideas on the NL and AL East

Some quick ideas on the NL East playoff race and a related idea.

First, the Nationals: they need all the help they can get catching up to the Braves right now, especially in the lineup. They currently have a team weighted runs created+ of 83, twenty-eighth in the league (and remember, it works like OPS+; 100 is league average). They need all their bats they can get. They should be getting their best hitter (Bryce Harper, 166 wRC+) back soon. Their next two best are Ryan Zimmerman (127 wRC+) and recent call-up Anthony Rendon (149), so those two need to stay in the lineup. However, they’re both third basemen.

Retired Numbers Series: Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ short history has been unlike any other team in baseball. In just over two decades, they have seen both higher highs (two World Series titles) and lower lows (their numerous fire sales) than most other teams. Those extremes have meant a large cast of players in their history, one that is both incredibly talented and very fleeting. But what does it mean for their retired numbers?

Trivia Time: Best Active Players Without a World Series

Some other sports are having championships right now, but they aren’t baseball, so I won’t talk about them. However, they did make me think of something the other day; baseball is pretty unique. When stars in the NBA or NHL or even NFL don’t win a championship, they get major blame. Championship rings are actual, honest-to-god currency in other sports.

Baseball though? Not nearly. Sure, sometimes people will try and break up championship rings in a “Who’s Better” debate, but then someone will bring up five-time champ Luis Sojo or any number of bench players from the 1950s Yankees* and the debate will quickly fizzle out.

*For example, I just discovered Bobby Brown, four-time World Series victor with six and a half Wins Above Replacement to his name over not-quite eight seasons. Or there’s future manager Ralph Houk, who played in 35 games for five different eventual World Series winners, with 0.1 WAR along the way.

Yep, when you can point out that greats like Ernie Banks or Ted Williams never won a title, you can see why the subject doesn’t come up as much. But the game’s parity has never been better, with nine different winners in the past twelve years and a large number in the running this year; on top of that, free agency lets players move about the league like never before. Are there any more greats in danger of joining that group?

Well, I now have a Sporcle answering that question-the best players by Baseball-Reference’s WAR without a World Series Title. Click here to try it. If you aren’t interested in a game, I’ll examine the results after the break.

The 2013 Franchise Player Draft

Now that I’m back from my short hiatus, I can start to catch up on the stories from the past few weeks. For example, the third annual ESPN Franchise Player Draft was held last week. There’s something about the concept of the Franchise Draft that I just find appealing. Maybe it’s appreciating all of the game’s young talent, maybe it’s because I like projecting the future. Either way, I want to look at it and offer my take.

For those who aren’t familiar with it, the Franchise Player Draft asks a simple question: you can draft any player to start a team with the guarantee you will get that player for the next ten years. Who do you take?

Cape Cod League Update: The 2013 MLB Draft

As you may remember, a year ago, I was working in the Cape Cod League, attending games and covering the numbers and players. Well, with the arrival of this year’s draft, some of those players are now entering into major league systems. Going through the first twenty rounds (this should cover most of the the draftees, although if I missed any to that point, I apologize), here are the Cape League Class of 2012 alumni moving on to the pros:


Player: Colin Moran

Pick: Round 1, Pick 6

Position: 3B

Cape League Team: Bourne Braves

College: University of North Carolina

Major League Team: Miami Marlins

I didn’t see Bourne as much as some other teams, but I did do a write-up of Moran’s summer in my team review.


Player: Marco Gonzales

Pick: Round 1, Pick 19

Position: LHP

Cape League Team: Falmouth Commodores

College: Gonzaga

Major League Team: St. Louis Cardinals

Gonzales was only at the Cape for a few games, but he was solid while there (10 innings, 2.70 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, 13/0 K/BB ratio).



Player: Eric Jagielo

Pick: Round 1, Pick 26

Position: 3B

Cape League Team: Harwich Mariners

College: Notre Dame

Major League Team: New York Yankees

Jagielo was one of the members of the Harwich Mariners’ Murderers’ Row last season, ultimately finishing second in the league in home runs. I also wrote about him in the team wrap-up. As a side note, I tried to talk to him after a game to write a player profile, but I missed him while talking to someone else. This doesn’t really help now, but I want to bring it up either way.



Player: Phil Ervin

Pick: Round 1, Pick 27

Position: CF

Cape League Team: Harwich Mariners

College: Samford

Major League Team: Cincinnati Reds

Another Harwich Mariner, Ervin cooled off after his unbelievably hot start, but still had a good season overall. His write ups can be found with Jagielo’s



Player: Aaron Judge

Pick: Round 1, Pick 32

Position: CF

Cape League Team: Brewster Whitecaps

College: Fresno State

Major League Team: New York Yankees

I didn’t go to many Brewster games, but I saw Judge’s first game, which I mentioned in their team article. The man has serious power.



Player: Sean Manaea

Pick: Competitive Balance Round A, Pick 1 (34 overall)

Position: LHP

Cape League Team: Hyannis Harbor Hawks

College: Indiana State

Major League Team: Kansas City Royals

Manaea had the best summer of anyone in the league, winning both the top pitcher and top prospect awards. I covered him not only in my Hyannis review, but also in an entire profile.



Player: Aaron Blair

Pick: Competitive Balance Round A, Pick 3 (36 overall)

Position: RHP

Cape League Team: Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox

College: Marshall

Major League Team: Arizona Diamondbacks

Blair was the ace of the runner-up Red Sox, as well as the first player that I profiled.

How David Ortiz Ranks from 2000 to 2013

I saw an article the other day (at ESPN) commenting on David Ortiz’s Hall of Fame chances. The basic conclusion was that he’s not there yet, which I agree with. But this got me wondering; Ortiz’s chances will be based entirely on his hitting. How does he stack up?

Well, went to Fangraphs and looked at 2000 through 2013 hitting stats, which includes almost all of Ortiz’s productive playing time. Then, I sorted by adjusted weighted runs created (wRC+). Basically, the stat accounts for home park and league averages and determines how productive a player was compared to league average (it works like OPS+; 100 is average, 120 is 20% better, and so on).

Is Albert Pujols on His Way to a Bounce Back Year?

Much has been made of the Angels’ struggles, particularly Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The major signings of the last two off seasons, the pair or them has disappointed. Josh Hamilton’s struggles appear to have started last year, and stem mainly from his declining ability to control the strike zone.

Similar claims were made last season about Pujols after his early struggles. For the fourth straight season, his walk rate and his isolated slugging declined, while his percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone increased.

For his struggles then, it appears he may be on to something now. All of those trends have reversed. Pujols has swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone, and his walk rate (10.9%) is greater than either of the past two seasons (7.8%, 9.4%), although not quite as high as it was back in 2010 or 2009 (14.7%, 16.4%). Still, it’s encouraging to see. Combine that with a .228 batting average on balls in play and you can see why his .237/.319/.407 line might improve, even if his isolated slugging is at an all-time low for him.

Except has Pujols really regained his patience? It’s interesting to note that his strike out percentage (11.6%) is second only to his rookie season as his career high. That seems to go against the earlier statement. Until you break down his numbers further, that is.

Pujols batted in front of Hamilton for most of the season to date, and amassed 6 intentional walks in that time. That seems right for his peak, but the past two seasons, he’s only been intentionally walked 15 and 16 times over a whole season. Pitchers definitely seemed to be pitching around him to face the weakened Hamilton.

Taking out his six intentional walks drops him down to 9 walks on the year total, which, through 132 plate appearances (again, removing those six), puts him at 6.8% walk rate, below even last year’s low. That would also drop his in-base percentage down from .319 to .287. Even halving his intentional walks (to put it more in line with the last two years) leaves him with marks of 8.9% (better than last year, but still below two years ago) and .303.

Overall, it looks like he hasn’t worsened from last year too much, but he’s still not on pace to return to being the Pujols of old.

Out of the Park Baseball 14 and the 2001 Astros: Part 2

Last time we checked on the 2001A Astros in Out of the Park Baseball, they were preparing to head into the season with a newly revamped lineup and rotation. At least, I wasn’t considering making any more moves, and it was only January. So, I kept an eye on the trading block and waiver wire while slowly moving towards opening day.

2001A had some divergences from our time stream, beyond me combining the 2001 Astros, 2001 Pirates, and 2004 Cardinals. For example, Brian Roberts retired in February to become a professional golfer, the Red Sox traded away future captain Jason Varitek for a minor leaguer and bench depth, and John Rocker injured himself in a freak treadmill accident. A few small deal went on across the league. I myself turned down an offer or two to swap bench players while making a small minor league signing or two. R.A. Dickey and Juan Rivera were among my minor league moves; although both wouldn’t establish themselves until well past 2001, I figured it couldn’t hurt to add them.

Out of the Park Baseball 14 and the 2001 Astros: Part 1

Out of the Park is one of the all time great baseball games. So, when they came to a deal with the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I jumped at the chance to try Out of the Park Baseball 14.

Out of the Park is a baseball simulator, and a giant of the genre. You can simulate this year, create an entirely fictional league, or run a past season as the GM of any team. As tempting as making a fictional league and reporting on it sounded (I still may do this some day though), I wanted to try something out using a real team.

A past year especially would be interesting-could I take a great team in history to a championship? And since I’m a big fan of teams without World Series victories yet, how about taking one of them. I thought about using the Mariners or Expos, but eventually settled on the Houston Astros. I have some ties to the team, most notably being that I have lived in Houston, so I have a soft spot for them.