I’ve wanted to revisit some ideas about big rebuilds and what comes next, so I started looking into it around the All-Star Break. However, the process sort of spiraled into something bigger, and as it went on, I realized that the first half of the article was a little more timely than the back-half. So rather than finish the whole thing and then start making decisions on publishing and where to divide it, I made the call to just preemptively split it up and publish the first part before it got too out-of-date, while still working on the back-half. As a result, I can’t really promise when Part 2 will be coming just yet, but it will hopefully be soon.
Over the last few seasons, I’ve been maintaining something of a series where I look at rebuilding teams. The main focus initially was comparing the complete teardown and rebuild of the circa-2020 Orioles with the one pulled off by the early-2010s Astros, since there were a lot of similarities in the two (including a shared lineage of personnel). A few other rebuilds also got mentioned over the course of those articles, but I eventually got around to a piece centered around the Braves’ retooling as a contrasting method. Ever since then, I’ve had a sort of mental connection between all of them.
The last piece in that series came over two years, right at the start of the 2023 season, and that looked like the end of things. The Orioles would roar out to a division title (their first since 2014) and 101 wins (their first 100-win season since 1980). The only team ahead of them was that Braves team, who won 104 games and looked to be moving into the peak years of their dynasty following their 2021 title.*
*Also, all stats in this piece are going to be from Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs.
If that had been the end, it would have been a satisfying conclusion to a long process. The Orioles’ rebuild finally paid off, the Braves’ kicked into high gear, the end. 2024 didn’t go quite as smoothly for either team, as both fell to second in their division and around the 90 win mark. But hey, there’s always some randomness over 162 games and following up a 100-win season can be hard. The important thing was that they made it back to the playoffs. And sure, those playoff runs ended poorly, but again, that happens sometimes. Both of them would be well equipped to try and come back the next year in 2025…
You almost certainly know how that’s gone so far. Those 2024 swoons look less like bad-luck blips and more like omens for what was to come. At the 2025 All-Star Break, the two had near-identical records (43-52 for Baltimore, 42-53 for Atlanta) and were both around a dozen games out of the division, with only the faintest hopes of a second-half comeback. It’s difficult to decide which one is the bigger disappointment.
A Baseball Blog - Scientific and Speculative Thoughts from Third Base
Monday, July 28, 2025
Friday, April 4, 2025
Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Closers, 2025 Edition
Before we get too far into the regular season, I’m going to add one more special edition update to this year’s Future Hall of Fame Series. However, if you missed the first few pieces in this series, you can start catching up on the Hitters here, and the Starting Pitchers here.
As I’ve said in the past, I don’t think it’s usually worth it to update my Future Hall of Fame predictions for closers every single season, in the way that I do for starters or position players. However, Billy Wagner’s induction this year seemed like a good excuse to revisit the topic; Wagner marks only the ninth closer in Cooperstown, and with such a small sample to build our Hall standards, I figured it was worth checking to see if things had shifted at all.
It also helps that I think Wagner will probably be the last closer added to the Hall of Fame for at least the foreseeable future. Now that he’s off the ballot, who’s the best reliever who isn’t already elected? Finding “the best X who isn’t already in” is usually a good way to determine a candidate who might start attracting new voters and building momentum for their case.
In fact, that’s actually what happened with Wagner himself; his first big jump in Hall polling came in 2020, which just so happened to come immediately on the heels of Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith all being elected between 2018 and 2019. With all of those three out of the way, Wagner gained a few favorable comps in Cooperstown (mostly Smith and Hoffman), but perhaps more importantly, there was no obvious player that would make anyone say “Why should we put Wagner in the Hall if [this guy] isn’t in?”
So with Wagner no longer eligible, who takes up the mantle of “Best Closer Who Isn’t in the Hall of Fame”? It’s not totally clear, and any uncertainty in that answer is going to split momentum in a way that wouldn’t happen if there was a single obvious choice. But just about every potential choice has an additional big asterisk standing in their way on top of that.
As I’ve said in the past, I don’t think it’s usually worth it to update my Future Hall of Fame predictions for closers every single season, in the way that I do for starters or position players. However, Billy Wagner’s induction this year seemed like a good excuse to revisit the topic; Wagner marks only the ninth closer in Cooperstown, and with such a small sample to build our Hall standards, I figured it was worth checking to see if things had shifted at all.
It also helps that I think Wagner will probably be the last closer added to the Hall of Fame for at least the foreseeable future. Now that he’s off the ballot, who’s the best reliever who isn’t already elected? Finding “the best X who isn’t already in” is usually a good way to determine a candidate who might start attracting new voters and building momentum for their case.
In fact, that’s actually what happened with Wagner himself; his first big jump in Hall polling came in 2020, which just so happened to come immediately on the heels of Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith all being elected between 2018 and 2019. With all of those three out of the way, Wagner gained a few favorable comps in Cooperstown (mostly Smith and Hoffman), but perhaps more importantly, there was no obvious player that would make anyone say “Why should we put Wagner in the Hall if [this guy] isn’t in?”
So with Wagner no longer eligible, who takes up the mantle of “Best Closer Who Isn’t in the Hall of Fame”? It’s not totally clear, and any uncertainty in that answer is going to split momentum in a way that wouldn’t happen if there was a single obvious choice. But just about every potential choice has an additional big asterisk standing in their way on top of that.
Wednesday, March 26, 2025
2025 Opening Day Astros Predictions
In honor of Opening Day tomorrow, I contributed my predictions for the 2025 Astros to The Crawfish Boxes’ Starting Nine! Go give it a look to see how everyone evaluated the team’s chances for this season. For posterity’s sake, I’ll re-post my blurb here, with a few extra thoughts:
It’s difficult to not feel like the 2025 Astros are worse on paper than the 2024 Astros. This was the most disappointing offseason for the team in recent memory, honestly probably since the mid-2000s? (Those early 2010 teams were bad, but most of the disappointment with them came from during the season rather than in between them.)
Trading Kyle Tucker made sense, but losing him a year before free agency made it sting more than other homegrown stars like Carlos Correa and George Springer actually leaving as free agents; it was like there was time to prepare yourself mentally with those, while this happened relatively all-at-once. Although speaking of that, we had another one of those cases in Alex Bregman leaving, but with the additional frustration of a brief window where it seemed like Houston might somehow manage bring him back on a short deal, hope that collapsed pretty rapidly. Ryan Pressly was dealt out, and Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander signed elsewhere, all of which make sense in isolation but do bring back stark concerns of just how thin the pitching staff felt at times last year. Really, given the constant rumors swirling around Framber Valdez, it feels kind of shocking that there weren’t even more high-profile departures.
But on further reflection, there were some interesting additions. I keep forgetting that the team signed Christian Walker, since bringing in a big free agent clashed with the “everyone is leaving” vibes emanating the rest of the winter. Really, things weren’t nearly as dire as they felt at times. Isaac Paredes and Brendan Rodgers feel like they could be surprisingly solid pieces of a team this year (much has already been said about Paredes being a good fit for not-Minute Maid Park, and I feel like the Astros’ development side might be able to get more out of Rodgers* than the Rockies’), while Cam Smith^ and Hayden Wesneski feel like they could be longer-term pieces who still have a chance to make a big impact this year.
It’s difficult to not feel like the 2025 Astros are worse on paper than the 2024 Astros. This was the most disappointing offseason for the team in recent memory, honestly probably since the mid-2000s? (Those early 2010 teams were bad, but most of the disappointment with them came from during the season rather than in between them.)
Trading Kyle Tucker made sense, but losing him a year before free agency made it sting more than other homegrown stars like Carlos Correa and George Springer actually leaving as free agents; it was like there was time to prepare yourself mentally with those, while this happened relatively all-at-once. Although speaking of that, we had another one of those cases in Alex Bregman leaving, but with the additional frustration of a brief window where it seemed like Houston might somehow manage bring him back on a short deal, hope that collapsed pretty rapidly. Ryan Pressly was dealt out, and Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander signed elsewhere, all of which make sense in isolation but do bring back stark concerns of just how thin the pitching staff felt at times last year. Really, given the constant rumors swirling around Framber Valdez, it feels kind of shocking that there weren’t even more high-profile departures.
But on further reflection, there were some interesting additions. I keep forgetting that the team signed Christian Walker, since bringing in a big free agent clashed with the “everyone is leaving” vibes emanating the rest of the winter. Really, things weren’t nearly as dire as they felt at times. Isaac Paredes and Brendan Rodgers feel like they could be surprisingly solid pieces of a team this year (much has already been said about Paredes being a good fit for not-Minute Maid Park, and I feel like the Astros’ development side might be able to get more out of Rodgers* than the Rockies’), while Cam Smith^ and Hayden Wesneski feel like they could be longer-term pieces who still have a chance to make a big impact this year.
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