tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14201490120244266202024-03-12T20:39:49.799-04:00Hot Corner HarborA Baseball Blog - Scientific and Speculative Thoughts from Third BaseTheohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.comBlogger612125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-10890086729439061512024-03-11T00:54:00.002-04:002024-03-12T17:19:18.788-04:00Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Pitchers, 2024 Edition Following the <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2024/02/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2024-edition.html">Future Hall of Fame Hitters article from last time</a>, we return with the second entry in this year’s <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/p/future-hall-of-fame-series.html">Future Hall of Fame Series</a>, looking at Starting Pitchers!<br /><br />Pitching, and starting pitching especially, has been in a constant state of evolution across the history of the game. This goes back to even the earliest days of professional baseball, where there were frequent adjustments to fundamental rules, like the number of balls and strikes that could be counted or the distance of the mound to the plate or even throwing underhand versus overhand. There have definitely been times where I’ve been looking at 1800s pitching stats and noticed a big year-to-year change, only to look up the history and realize it coincided with, say, a year where there were seven balls in a walk, or a decision to move the mound back from 45 feet away from the plate.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Things have stabilized relative to those wild early days, but they’ve never really stopped moving; we’ve seen the introduction of rotations, equipment changes from the deadball to the liveball, the gradual increase in the number of pitchers in said rotations, medical developments that could revive dead careers, the emergence and growing prominence of bullpens and all the strategy switches that entailed, new philosophies and pitches constantly being developed and taught, the effects of growing understanding on the delineation between pitching and defense (plus tons of evolution in defense alongside all this, which is at least related), continued tinkering on things like mound height and distance… you could just go on and on listing these factors. Hitting has changed too, of course, but nowhere near to the extent that the pitching side of the game has. <br /><br />And all of that represents a major problem when it comes to the Hall of Fame, a historical institution that is entirely subjective and thus, more or less defined by its own precedent. What does it <i>mean </i>to be a Hall of Fame starting pitcher? Pitching today on the whole looks little like it did sixty years ago, let alone way back at the turn of the twentieth century. It would probably stand to reason that if our idea of a <i>pitcher </i>had changed that much, then surely our idea of a <i>Hall of Fame pitcher</i> must have similarly evolved with it.<br /><br />Except… it largely hasn’t. In fact, not only has the idea of what makes a “Hall of Fame starting pitcher” not evolved at the rate the game has changed, it’s arguably stagnated in such a way that it’s now somehow harder to elect traditionally-deserving candidates; the number of pitchers in Cooperstown has been dropping for a while. By just about any measure, things have gotten worse as of late, and look to get even more dire in the near future. I might be going more in-depth on this matter in an upcoming piece, but just to put some basic numbers to the issue: historically, the Hall has inducted hitters and pitchers at a two-to-one rate, or one pitcher inducted for every two position players.* Keep that in mind as a baseline.<br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br /><br /><i>*And to add some more context, the overwhelming majority of those pitchers were starting pitchers, since relievers are a more modern development. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheho01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hoyt Wilhelm</a> was the first reliever in the Hall of Fame back in 1985, then <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fingero01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rollie Fingers</a> was inducted in 1992. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eckerde01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dennis Eckersley</a>’s election in 2004 marked our third Cooperstown closer, and essentially kickstarted the modern rush of closer elections.</i><br /><br />Since 2000, that rate has risen to a hair over three-to-one, with 51 position players against only 16 pitchers. To make matters even more lopsided, those 16 pitchers include just ten starting pitchers, with the other six being closers, a role that has historically pitched just a fraction of the innings that starters do.* And looking forward to the next five or so years of Hall elections, my current best guess is that we see a dozen more position players inducted, against only one starting pitcher and one reliever, putting us at a 63-to-18 (with 11 starters and 7 relievers) hitter-to-pitcher ratio over the first three decades of the 2000s. If you want that in percentages, we basically dropped from 67%-33% in favor of hitters (with nearly all of that 33% being starters) to 78%-22%, with about 13.5% of the total being starters.<br /><br /><i>*To clarify: I’m not necessarily opposed to six closers making it into the Hall in this span, but I do think that starter-to-closer induction ratio is way out of whack given the value the two roles typically provide. </i><br /><br />I’ve already covered a few of the issues causing this in the past, and I’m sure that those will come up in that future piece.* They certainly deserve their own focus, at least. However, none of those are really the focus of <b>this </b>annual column, which is devoted to evaluating current starting pitchers’ likeliness of making it to Cooperstown, rather than what the Hall “should” be doing in the abstract. <br /><br /><i>*For anyone who can’t wait for the future piece and wants to dig through the backlog before then, <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2013/04/Johan-Santana-Hall-of-Fame-Sandy-Koufax.html">here’s me a decade ago talking about how high-peak/short-career starters aces aren’t getting inducted anymore</a>; <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2017/03/predicting-hall-of-fame-below-median-pitchers.html">here’s me a few years later talking about how the Hall has largely stopped inducting new starting pitchers who aren’t above the Hall’s existing median</a>; and <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2020/12/hall-of-fame-pitchers-pettitte-buehrle-hudson.html">here’s me just a few years ago, revisiting that idea and applying it to specific pitchers on the ballot</a>. </i><br /><br />I base my system off the Hall’s median, and while below-median pitchers not getting inducted is probably bad for the Hall as a whole and will affect the numbers I’m using as a whole, it still doesn’t really change the core focus here. My focus in these pieces is largely on identifying the best young pitchers of today, and trying to put some numbers to their eventual Hall chances way ahead of schedule by comparing them to both existing Hall of Famers and players who fell short. <br /><br />In theory, those issues <i>shouldn’t</i> fundamentally undermine this idea. In practice, though? Starting pitching is going through yet another set of pretty substantial changes right now, ones that are making it harder and harder to compare it to what’s come before. We’ve been trending this way for a for years, but this year it became impossible to ignore: we basically have no young starting pitchers who qualify as “on pace for the Hall of Fame” in my current system. <br /><br />Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that there won’t be any more Hall of Fame pitchers in the future. It’s possible that the new system in time leads to more good players in the long run. Maybe, while young starters aren’t bursting onto the league at the young ages they used to, these changes will eventually lead to more of them staying healthy and productive in the long run, and putting up traditionally great numbers deep into their 30s. In that case, their career totals might even end up in line with what we expect for Cooperstown. We have seen some pitchers posting great seasons in their mid-30s recently!<br /><br />Alternatively, perhaps our understanding of what makes a Hall of Famer actually evolves a little alongside the changes in pitching this time, and the best players of today get their due in fifteen or twenty years as our understanding of these new paradigms changes as well. Granted, given the ways the electorate has already become unwilling to consider A-tier and A-minus-tier pitchers to focus exclusively on A-plus-tier candidates… well, I can see why anyone would be hesitant to predict the Hall voters evolving to stay in line with the times. <br /><br />I don’t know that I’m willing to speculate on all of that <b>on top of</b> predicting individual players’ futures, though, which is why most of that discussion will wait for a later day. For this piece, the main thing to know is this: I won’t just be highlighting the players above the median Wins Above Replacement for their age, since there basically are none (the few who do achieve that distinction will be italicized and underlined for emphasis [EDIT: That doesn't quite look as noticeable as I had hoped with the existing site formatting, so I added a highlight effect on top of that to make it stand out a little more.]). For every age group, I’m just sharing the active leader in pitching WAR for players of that age, so that you at least get some fun trivia instead of “No Active Players” fifteen times in a row. <br /><br /><br />The methodology is mostly the same as the one I used for <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2024/02/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2024-edition.html">the Future Hall of Fame Hitters article from last time</a>. As a quick refresher of that: <br /><br /><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">I used Baseball-Reference’s Stathead search feature to look at every Hall of Fame starting pitcher, ordered by (their version of) Wins Above Replacement and pick out the median. Then, I search for the same set by age, looking at where the median fell for all Hall of Famers through their age 20 season, then their age 21 season, and so on, all the way until we’re back to the overall Hall median. That gives us our “Median WAR by Age” line, which we’ll be comparing the players to.<br /><br />From there, we can get our approximate odds for players who are at or above the median at different ages. First, we look at those median marks for each age and the half of the Hall of Fame members who are above it. Then, I compare it to all of the eligible players who were also above that mark at that age but did not eventually get elected, and take the percentage of players who made it to the Hall out of total players above the median.<br /><br />To use some fake round numbers as an example: say we had 50 Hall of Fame Starters, and our median for the set through age 22 was 5.0 WAR. We’d have 25 Hall of Famers above 5.0 WAR. Say also that there were 50 other players, who had 5.0 WAR through their age 22 season but did not make the Hall of Fame. That would give us: (25 5.0 WAR Players in the Hall) divided by (75 total 5.0 WAR players), equaling out to roughly 33% chances of induction.<br /><br />For additional errata, I’m grouping players by their age during the 2023 season, so the players in the Age 23 group will be in their Age 24 season in 2024. Player Age for a year is based on what their age will be on July 1st in a given season, as is the standard convention. And lastly, I’m only including American League and National League stats, because this whole system is based on comparing precedent to current players, and while the Negro Leagues results are major league stats, I’m not sure they make for a conducive yardstick given the differences in the leagues and the Hall induction methods.<br /></div><br /><div>There are a few differences between the pitchers and hitter versions of this system. The big one is that I limit the pitching set a little more in all of these searches, looking exclusively at players who started in the Liveball Era (1920 on), since Deadball Era pitchers are kind of an entirely different beast, with their own standards. I also specifically limit my searches to pitchers who started 10% of their games or more, since relief pitchers are generally judged by Win Probability Added rather than Wins Above Replacement.* And the other big change is that I exclusively look at pitching WAR here, rather than including the pitchers’ hitting WAR; this is largely because pitchers’ batting WAR can really swing the totals, despite the fact that Hall voters (like most people) don’t appear to care about it at all. This will have less of an effect going forward thanks to the universal DH, but that rule change is recent enough that it may change the numbers you see for some players here versus their career total. <br /><br /><i>*<a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/03/future-hall-of-fame-pitchers-2023-edition.html">I did a Closers-specific article last year</a>, if you’re curious about that. I was going to update it with a new Median WPA trend line this year once <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a> got inducted, but <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2024/01/2024-hall-of-fame-results-beltre-helton.html">he wound up narrowly missing</a>. So between the numbers not changing, the smaller number of candidates to cover, and everything else about the role, I was leaning away from updating that system every single year; 2025 looks like it will bring more relevant updates. But if there’s a desire among readers for a 2024 update on this, let me know and I might be able to put something together before the season starts.</i><br /><br /><br /><br />Now that all of those disclaimers and ponderings are out of the way, let’s move on to the main event: how do our active starters measure up here?<br /><br /><b><br />Age 20: 0.9 WAR Median; 14.81% of all players at this mark elected<br /><span style="background-color: #0b5394;">Active Leader: <i><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=perezeu01,perezeu02&search=Eury+Pérez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Eury Pérez</a><u> (2.5 WAR)</u></i></span><br /><br />Age 21: 1.9 WAR Median; 10.28% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harriky01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kyle Harrison</a> (0.2 WAR)</b><br /><br />In 2022, we had exactly one under-22 pitcher in the entire majors, and he only threw one 5.0-inning start at that. Things aren’t quite that dire this year, with five under-22 players combining for just over 170 innings in 2023. Half of those come from young Marlins pitcher <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=perezeu01,perezeu02&search=Eury+Pérez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Eury P</a><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=perezeu01,perezeu02&search=Eury+Pérez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">é</a><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=perezeu01,perezeu02&search=Eury+Pérez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">rez</a>, a graduated top-10 prospect who tossed 91.1 innings with a 3.15 ERA; he will be the only above-median pitcher that we see for quite some time. The other four pitchers in this group were less remarkable, all landing between -0.5 and 0.2 WAR. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 22: 4.0 WAR Median; 14.74% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/littllu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luke Little</a> (0.3 WAR)<br /></b><br />This age bracket still only includes eight different pitchers. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodssi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Simeon Woods Richardson</a> is the only returning player; he was our one-start 21-year-old last year, and now he’s a two-start 22-year-old. Maybe 2024 will be the year he sticks in the majors. The other seven players all debuted in 2023, with Luke Little’s meager 0.3 WAR leading the set (that result comes from 6.2 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts). <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kerkeor01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Orion Kerkering</a> (0.1 WAR, 3 IP) is the only other player with positive value to date. As a set, this octet still only has 207.2 career innings pitched, with 104.2 of those coming from <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlta01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Taj Bradley</a> (-0.4 WAR). <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 23: 6.5 WAR Median; 15.09% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/detmere01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Reid Detmers</a> (4.3 WAR)</b><br /><br />This is clearly the point where teams start to feel better about calling up pitchers full-time, as we had a full thirty 23-year-old pitchers in the majors last season. However, the career WAR totals are still pretty low. Reid Detmers and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenhu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hunter Greene</a> (3.1 WAR) are both above Perez; of course, it would take a <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cy Young</a>-level performance for either of them to make it to the age-24 median this year. Outside of those two, we have four more pitchers in the 1-to-2 Win range (plus one more just missing at 0.9), while a full nineteen are at 0.5 WAR or less.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 24: 9.8 WAR Median; 16.83% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stridsp01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Spencer Strider</a> (7.1 WAR)</b><br /><br />We have (arguably) our first pitcher of note here! And not only that, he makes for a great illustration of our central problem: Strider finished runner-up to teammate <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrimi04.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Michael Harris II</a> in the 2022 Rookie of the Year vote, and followed that up with an All Star selection and a fourth-place finish in the NL Cy Young vote last year. That’s about as good as you can hope for a young pitcher in their first two seasons in the majors! All of that got him just 7.1 WAR, well below the Hall median, in no small part because his 320.2 innings through the age of 24 just barely cracks the top 500 list for post-1947 pitchers (and as you can imagine, that drops even lower if you take that window back to the deadball era or earlier). He’s not below every single Hall of Fame pitcher through age 24 (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=johnsra05,johnsra04,johnsra03&search=Randy+Johnson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Randy Johnson</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gibsobo02,gibsobo01&search=Bob+Gibson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bob Gibson</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perryga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gaylord Perry</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fordwh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Whitey Ford</a> all had less time on the mound at this point, to name a few), but he’s definitely lower than most of them. And his teammate, fellow All-Star, and age-24 runner-up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/elderbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bryce Elder</a> (3.8 WAR) stood no chance of making the cutoff. At least Strider’s value is close enough to the mark that a big, Cy Young-winning year in 2024 could get him to the age 25 mark.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 25: 12.35 WAR Median; 17.76% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manoaal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alek Manoah</a> (7.8 WAR)</b><br /><br />Manoah’s abysmal 2023 season (5.87 ERA in 87.1 Innings, just 79 K versus 59 walks, -1.1 bWAR) does not guarantee he won’t make his way to the Hall of Fame; shoot, if he does one day make it to Cooperstown, it technically might not even be the worst pitching season from a Blue Jays Hall of Famer, thanks to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a>’s awful 2000 campaign. But all the same… he pretty clearly needs to turn things around. Closer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/claseem01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Emmanuel Clase</a> is second for this age group with 7.1 WAR, but again, I <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/03/future-hall-of-fame-closers-2023-edition.html">evaluate closers’ chances with a different system</a>, so <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luzarje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jesús Luzardo</a> (6.0) is our actual runner-up.<br /><br /><b><br />Age 26: 18.15 WAR Median; 26.39% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/webblo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Logan Webb</a> (13.8 WAR)</b><br /><br />Webb has been on a steady upward trajectory the last three years, which is how he’s built all of his WAR so far. In 2021, he stuck in the rotation for a full year and proved his “solid young starter” credentials despite not really appearing on any Top 100 Prospect lists* or demonstrating much dominance at the major league level up to that point. The next year, he’d demonstrate that he was an ace and pick up some Cy Young votes, and then last year, he finished runner-up in Cy voting while leading the NL in innings (still no All-Star selections though, weirdly enough). <br /><br /><i>*It might also be worth noting that his rise before then was similarly rough, with time missed due to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy John</a> surgery back in 2016 and ‘17 (does that mean anything for potential future injuries? I haven’t seen any compelling evidence, and he’s been durable since) and a steroid suspension in 2019 (no idea how that will play on the ballot whenever he comes up, given that it happened before he was notable and it might be the 2040s by then), not to mention the 2020 pandemic season. </i><br /><br />And despite all of that, he’s still a very good Cy Young-type season away from making it up to the median for his age. On the flip side, if he misses a lot of time in 2024 due to an injury (always a risk with pitchers), he’ll have no shot of catching up to his age-median, because the pace at this point is relentless (this year and next see it rise by roughly 5 Wins each). This neatly illustrates a lot of problems facing modern pitchers under this system.<br /><br />While we’re here, I’ll throw <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcclash01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shane McClanahan</a> (8.6 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/javiecr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cristian Javier</a> (7.4 WAR) into this discussion just to have more names. Also, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uriasju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Urías</a> is tied with Webb at the top for this age group, but I’m not sure that he counts as active given that he’s still unsigned and <a href="https://dodgersnation.com/mlb-insider-expects-former-dodgers-lhp-julio-urias-to-be-suspended-for-2024-season/2023/11/18/">likely facing a second domestic violence suspension</a> if he does sign somewhere in the league.<br /><br /><i><br /></i><b>Age 27: 21.55 WAR Median; 27.14% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alcansa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sandy Alcántara</a> (20.1 WAR)</b><br /><br />That bit about the risk of injuries I just did with Logan Webb? It was kind of foreshadowing for this part; Alcántara is of course reasonably close to the Hall median here, but it’s already announced that he’ll be missing all of 2024 to recover from Tommy John surgery. So when he does return in 2025, he’ll actually need an <b><i>11-WAR</i></b> season to get back on pace. That’s in spite of a career that’s been fairly successful from the get-go.<br /><br />So what about the rest of this age group? Well, second place goes to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/galleza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zac Gallen</a> (who was in fact traded with Alcantara to the Marlins as part of the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcell Ozuna</a> trade, before being sent to Arizona). On the strength of two straight top-five finishes in Cy Young voting, Gallen sits at 16.9 WAR, well behind Hall pace but with a chance to pass Alcantara this year, at least. There’s also <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezpa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pablo López</a> (11.8 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dylan Cease</a> (11.7 WAR), who are nowhere close right now, but they’re good enough that maybe they can play the long game and catch up with good seasons into their mid-to-late 30s? <br /><br /><b><br />Age 28: 26.45 WAR Median; 34.55% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biebesh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shane Bieber</a> (17.0 WAR)</b><br /><br />Bieber has a Cy Young rather than just runner-up finishes, but he’s just barely ahead of Gallen’s career total right now. It probably doesn’t help that his best season was the shortened 2020 one. He’s certainly in a better position than second place <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marquge01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Germán Márquez</a> (16.0 WAR), who had a down 2022 season and missed most of 2023 for Tommy John surgery. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shohei Ohtani</a> is third for this age group, but I already covered him <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2024/02/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2024-edition.html">in the article about hitters</a>. <br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehlwa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Walker Buehler</a> missed all of 2023, yet another UCL surgery patient, but he is next on the list with 13.6 Wins. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burneco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corbin Burnes</a> (13.4 WAR) comes after that, which feels like a low finish for the 2021 Cy Young winner coming off three-straight All-Star appearances. To be fair, he’d move up a lot if you removed his disastrous 2019 season back when he was still acclimating to the Majors (8.82 ERA in 49.0 innings, -2.2 WAR), but that still doesn’t get him close to the Hall median. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/giolilu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lucas Giolito</a> (12.4 WAR) is also around here, but any “Future Hall” speculation for him should probably be held off until we can figure out what’s been going wrong with him (<b>EDIT:</b> Looks like <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1765036563900039586?s=20">he has a torn UCL</a>, and might miss all of 2024. Maybe that explains the end of last season though?).<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 29: 31.2 WAR Median; 38.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/friedma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Fried</a> (19.5 WAR)</b><br /><br />Once again, in Fried, we have a young star who put up a successful string of years, but who was waylaid by injuries last year. At least it wasn’t another Tommy John surgery this time. Even with that time missed, he’s still well ahead of runners-up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berrijo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Berríos</a> (13.2 WAR), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Severino</a> (11.9), and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valdefr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Framber Valdez</a> (10.7). <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcculla02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lance McCullers Jr.</a> (11.1 WAR) is also right around here, despite missing all of last season with a variety of arm problems. You may notice that we’re still yet to see a player match Alcantara’s WAR.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 30: 36.3 WAR Median; 52.78% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolaaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Nola</a> (32.0 WAR)</b><br /><br />Nola finally breaks through, as our first pitcher to not only top Alcántara’s value, but also to crack the 30-Win mark. He’s over 4 WAR behind where he needs to be for the Hall pace, which means that, given the median line for age-31, he needs 2024 to be a <b><i>9.2-Win</i></b> season. He actually has managed that in the past, back in 2018 (at least according to Baseball-Reference’s formulation), but none of his other seasons are within 3 WAR of that, so it seems unlikely to happen again.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=castilu03,castilu02,castilu01,castil020lui,castil027lui,castil018lui,castil025lui&search=Luis+Castillo&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Castillo</a> is also ahead of Alcántara, with 22.3 WAR, as is the still-unsigned <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snellbl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Blake Snell</a> at 21.1. It’s a little shocking that Snell isn’t higher up given his two Cy Young Awards, but I guess that’s what happens when you have the kinds of inning restrictions he does. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 31: 41.2 WAR Median; 54.29% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Robbie Ray</a> (17.9 WAR)</b><br /><br />And we’re once again back below 20 WAR with our leader for the age. And Ray is yet another example of a pitcher who’s 2023 was destroyed by Tommy John surgery, throwing just 3.1 innings.<br /><br /><b><br />Age 32: 44.7 WAR Median; 57.58% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a> (40.7 WAR)</b><br /><br />Cole represents another big jump for us, as the reigning AL Cy Young winner is our first pitcher with over 40 Wins Above Replacement so far. Being 4 WAR behind the pace seems less than ideal, but if you remember my Hitters article, you might remember that this was around the point where the Hall pace started to slow down, giving players an opening to catch back up. In theory, Cole seems to be in prime position to take advantage of that…<br /><br />Except that the pitchers don’t see the same slow down in their pace at all; in fact, their 6.9-WAR jump from age 32 to 33 is the single largest jump we see anywhere in this project, pitcher or hitter. That means that Cole would need to muster nearly <b><i>11 WAR</i></b> next season to get above the Hall median, or a 3.5-Win improvement over his award-winning 2023. Not only that, but things only slightly slow down after that: the next two jumps for ages 34 and 35 are another 2.8 and 5.45 WAR, respectively. <br /><br />So not only does Cole need to keep it up for this year, he needs to stay hot for at least another two more seasons after that if he wants to have any hope of starting to catch up to the median. At that point, things will slow down a lot for the back half of his 30s, so that will be the real window to make up ground, but 1) things still won’t actually stop at that point, just slow down substantially; and 2) again, this will be his late 30s and into his early 40s, which feels like an especially perilous set of ages to be forecasting. <br /><br />At least he’s further ahead than the rest of his cohort. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kevin Gausman</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stromma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Stroman</a> are just our sixth and seventh active starters with over 20 WAR, at 23.2 and 21.3 respectively (for comparison, there are over 30 active position players with 20+ Wins through this age). And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Teherán</a> (who has a minor league deal with Baltimore this spring) just misses that mark at 19.9 Wins, which is a name I really did not expect to see.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 33: 51.6 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sonny Gray</a> (30.2 WAR)</b><br /><br />Technically, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a> is still in the lead for this age group, with 32.5 pitching WAR, but I haven’t seen any real rumors of teams even looking at him following the Diamondbacks cutting him last May (other than some jokes about him offering to pitch for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bruce Bochy</a> in the World Series). It’s kind of telling what a big lead he built up after debuting at age 19 way back in 2009, that he’s still here even after doing basically nothing (-0.5 WAR) in four seasons as a Diamondback.<br /><br />Anyway, until Bumgarner actually returns, Sonny Gray is our active leader, although there’s a decent chance he passes Bumgarner’s WAR total this year as well. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheelza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Wheeler</a> (28.7 WAR) might pass him as well. As for ever catching up to the Hall median from this point… it’s going to be tough for them at this age. If you wanted to map out what a path to Cooperstown looks like for them at this point, the most realistic option is probably to bet on them being good enough to make it over the 60 WAR line or so while having some extra factor to woo voters, making it in as a slightly below-median starter. <br /><br />Sure, <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2017/03/predicting-hall-of-fame-below-median-pitchers.html">Hall voters have been struggling to induct those types of players as of late</a>, but even getting to the 60 Win range for either of them is going to take a post-33 career that looks like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a>, and those types of aging curves are already really rare. Actually reaching the Hall median would require a post-33 career that’s another step up from that, maybe something like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanno01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Ryan</a>’s or Randy Johnson’s; I imagine if either of them can manage something that historic, then they’ll probably have an easy time convincing people to vote for them.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 34: 54.4 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a> (47.3 WAR)</b><br /><br />Coming off his age 30 season back in 2019, Sale <i>seemed </i>well set up to stay above the Hall median, even having a few years worth of buffer to serve as insurance. But the last four years have gone even rougher than anyone could have imagined back then; he only threw 48.1 innings from 2020 to 2022, thanks primarily to Tommy John surgery, a stress fracture in his rib, a line drive off the hand, and a bout of COVID. 2023 counts as the success story because he “only” missed 2 months of the season due to shoulder problems, while throwing 102 innings. Maybe his luck will be better on the Braves, but even then, the best he can probably hope for with regards to the Hall median is just treading water. Any real catch-up will have to wait until 2025, since age 34 still represents a nearly 5.5-WAR increase in the Hall median trend. Sale’s former teammate on the White Sox José Quintana is a very distant runner-up here, with 29.2 WAR. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 35: 59.85 WAR Median; 95.00% of all players at this mark elected<br /><span style="background-color: #0b5394;">Active Leader: <i><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a><u> (77.1 WAR)</u></i></span></b><u><br /></u><br />For the first time since Eury Pérez <i>waaaaaay </i>back in the age 20 group, we have a starter who’s actually above the Hall WAR median for his age, and it’s Clayton Kershaw. And of course, as you probably guessed, Kershaw is not just above the age-35 median, but the <i>entire </i>Hall median for liveball-era starting pitchers. I realize that “Clayton Kershaw is on pace for the Hall of Fame” isn’t exactly some huge under-the-radar discovery, but given the state of things, we have to take the small victories where we can find them. <br /><br />One thing about Kershaw that I hadn’t thought prior to writing this part is how starkly he represents the end of the prior era of pitching development. Right now, Clayton has 2712.2 regular season innings to date in his career, a total that’s impressive, but not exactly historic: he’s just inside the top 200 all time, and he’s not even the active leader at the moment. He does, however, blow every other pitcher we’ve covered so far out of the water. No one in the age groups below him is within 500 innings of him; Madison Bumgarner is the closest, at 2209.1 (again, ignore that he’s unsigned at the moment). Outside of that, we haven’t covered any other 2000-inning pitchers yet. <br /><br />In fact, only three 35-and-under pitchers are within <b><i>1000 </i></b>innings of Kershaw right now: Gerrit Cole has 1859.0, and Chris Sale and José Quintana have 1780.2 and 1799.1, respectively. There are a whole bunch of examples I could give here to demonstrate what’s changed, but the long and short of it is that teams generally don’t bring up pitchers as young as Kershaw was when he debuted any more, and even once they are up, they don’t throw as many innings as he did in his twenties (either as a young pitcher in his early twenties, or as an established star in his late twenties). Both of those factors combined <i>really</i> add up. <br /><br />Given his comparative lack of innings, it’s shocking not just that <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a> is the runner-up for this age bracket, but that he ranks as highly as he does. Since debuting particularly late (he was already 26 during his Rookie of the Year season back in 2014), deGrom has only tossed 1356.1 innings, but he’s made them count, racking up 42.1 WAR to date. I honestly think there’s a reasonable Hall case for him <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2013/04/Johan-Santana-Hall-of-Fame-Sandy-Koufax.html">under the “high peak” argument</a>, but Hall voters don’t seem to be going for that type of candidate anymore. He’ll probably need to come back strong from his second Tommy John surgery later this year and continue building up those counting numbers.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 36: 60.2 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a> (31.3 WAR)</b><br /><br />Yu Darvish’s MLB numbers are obviously pretty far away from where he needs to be for Hall of Fame purposes, but I wonder how much stronger his case would look if you accounted for his time pitching in Japan. <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/International%20Baseball">As I have mentioned in the past</a>, I’m <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2017/09/hiroki-kuroda-international-japan-NPB-MLB-Hall-Fame.html">open to considering</a> <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2019/09/yuli-gurriel-2019-historic-cuba.html">the full scope of</a> <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/06/Jose-Abreu-1500-hits-milestone.html">international players’ careers</a>, especially for players who were constrained in when they could come to the US. Sure, you can’t just add together the two sets of stats and call it a day, but I also believe that completely ignoring them is an even bigger mistake. I thought I had already taken a deeper look at Yu’s case, like what I did for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gourryu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yuli Gurriel</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Abreu</a> in the past, but apparently not; that might go on my to-do list now. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lance Lynn</a> is technically a close second here, with 30.6 WAR, but he obviously has none of the extra credit that Darvish does.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 37: 61.3 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto</a> (38.5 WAR)</b><br /><br />Johnny Cueto is still unsigned, but <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/johnny-cueto-preparing-to-pitch-in-2024.html">apparently hoping to pitch this season</a>. His 2023 wasn’t great, but pitching is always in demand, so someone still might give him a chance. I doubt he has another 30 WAR in him, though. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Kluber</a> would have been another candidate of note here, but <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/corey-kluber-announces-retirement.html">he retired this offseason</a>; his 34.0 pitching WAR is low, but his pair of Cy Young Awards wouldn’t be the worst basis of a Hall of Fame case. It’s still not happening, though, for at least the foreseeable future. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 38: 62.05 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br /><span style="background-color: #0b5394;">Active Leader: <i><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a><u> (74.0 WAR)</u></i></span></b><span style="background-color: #0b5394;"><br /></span><br />We have our second pitcher already above the Hall’s median in Max Scherzer, and once again, I imagine he’ll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer whenever he comes up for election. He’s also the first pitcher we’ve come across here with more innings thrown than Clayton Kershaw (with the only other two being the next two age group leaders). It’s difficult to say how much longer Scherzer has in the league, given that he’ll miss the first few months of this season for back surgery and his contract is up after 2024; both of those can be a major cause of uncertainty for a player who will turn 40 during the season. But if he can at least get back to the level he was at while healthy in 2023, I’m sure someone next year will find a spot for him in the rotation if he wants to keep going. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 39: 63.5 WAR Median; 79.17% of all players at this mark elected<br /><span style="background-color: #0b5394;">Active Leader: <i><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a><u> (72.4 WAR)</u></i></span></b><br /><br />With 3389.1 innings pitched, Zack Greinke is our active workload leader, as well as the longest-serving active major leaguer (pitcher or otherwise), having debuted all the way back in 2004. I could have sworn that I saw news about Greinke re-signing with the Royals over the winter, but apparently I completely imagined that? Kansas City <i>did </i>sign numerous pitchers in free agency this winter, and there’s been rumors that Greinke would prefer to return there, but there wasn’t actually a deal. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/zack-greinke-preparing-to-pitch-in-2024.html">The most recent definite update we received</a> on this front was that he was “preparing to pitch in 2024”, which came way back in December, but there’s little else to go on since. <br /><br />I’d love to see him come back and make a run at 3000 strikeouts; he currently sits at 2979, and that feels like the most frustrating place to end. If he can’t find something soon, maybe there will be more openings as the season goes on and rotations need to be shuffled for injuries and underperformance? And it’s not like he’d even need a full season to get 21 more whiffs. I imagine that Zack will cruise into Cooperstown regardless of whether he actually makes it to the milestone, it’s not like it changes his legacy significantly or anything; but I’d still rather see it happen.<br /><br />And for a shocking change, Zack Greinke actually isn’t the only active starting pitcher in this age group! <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=mortoch02,mortoch01&search=Charlie+Morton&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Charlie Morton</a> is nowhere near the Hall median, with just 18.3 pitching WAR to his name. The sheer novelty of still having multiple active players here would have driven me to say something anyway, <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2018/12/14/18140507/ode-to-cfm-charlie-morton-astros">but it certainly makes it nicer that it’s CFM</a>. He certainly has had an interesting career, to say the least; remember how he had a negative career bWAR when he signed with the Astros for his age-33 season back in 2017? If nothing else, he’s a testament to how wild and unpredictable pitcher development can be.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 40: 65.7 WAR Median; 79.17% of all players at this mark elected<br /><span style="background-color: #0b5394;">Active Leader: <i><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a><u> (81.4 WAR)</u></i></span></b><br /><br />Right now, Justin Verlander is poised to be the oldest player in the Major Leagues, following the retirements of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=cruzne02,cruzne01&search=Nelson+Cruz&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nelson Cruz</a> (there’s one factor that might change this, but we’ll get to him in a moment). Like Greinke and Scherzer, I don’t think there’s going to be much debate about whether he’s a Hall of Famer at this point, but I’d imagine he’d like to finish his career strong. Of course, he also has a 2025 vesting option in his contract, so there’s also a good chance that said “strong finish” won’t be this year.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 41: 66.8 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Overall: 67.2 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Leader (for ages 41+): <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillri01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-03-11_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rich Hill</a> (17.0 WAR)</b><br /><br />The one obstacle that might thwart Verlander as he vies for the title of “Oldest Player in the 2024 Season” is Rich Hill. Hill would be entering his age 44 season, and while he hasn’t signed anywhere yet, he has indicated an interest in pitching this season, and even <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/rich-hill-considering-joining-team-midway-through-2024-season.html">explicitly mentioned the idea of signing later in the season</a>, so I won’t totally rule him out until I hear otherwise. Like Morton, his career is unique enough that he’s worth celebrating, even if his chances of making it to Cooperstown as a player are basically nil. <br /><br /><br /><br />And with that, we can tentatively close the book on the Future Hall of Fame series for 2024. As I mentioned above, I’m probably not going to make the Closers part of this series annual, but let me know if you would like to see a quick update there and I might be able to get something together by the start of the season. Otherwise, the next thing you can expect to see here is probably either that Yu Darvish idea I mentioned, or an expansion on the idea from the opening about Hall voters getting worse at electing Hall of Fame pitchers. Whatever may come next, if you’d like to get an email update when those go live, you can sign up for the Hot Corner Harbor mailing list below! <br /><br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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</div>Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-53876409077281241302024-02-26T22:38:00.002-05:002024-02-26T22:38:57.579-05:00Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Hitters, 2024 Edition<a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/03/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2023-edition.html"></a><a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/03/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2023-edition.html">Last year</a>’s entries in the <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/p/future-hall-of-fame-series.html">Future Hall of Fame</a> series marked my tenth anniversary of writing the series. I remarked at the time that it felt like less time than that because Hall voting moves at such a glacial pace: you need to play for at least ten years (but almost certainly more), and then you need five years of retirement and another year of voting on top of that. Given that I started the series to look at younger players, it made sense that there weren’t many actual Hall results to compare it against; the youngest players from those early articles are still largely in their primes, for the most part! <br /><br />But we actually did reach a new milestone this year: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a> are the first players I covered in this series to actually get inducted to Cooperstown! I didn’t actually mention them until the second year of the series, since the 2013 article was focused on players who were 30 or younger. I extended that to 35-and-under the next year, which roped in those two as well as <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a> (among others), but left out older stars like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Ortiz</a>. Those would have given me an easy inductee several years ago, but I didn’t extend the boundaries of my coverage to cover players older than 35 until the 2017 article (which means that I’ve also covered likely upcoming inductees <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ichiro Suzuki</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=beltrca01,beltra003car&search=Carlos+Beltrán&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltran</a>). <br /><br />Sure, it’ll still be a while before we see a non-shoo-in player from the series inducted, let alone one who I tracked over the entire course of their career; but like I said, that’s just a big part of covering the Hall of Fame. We’ll have to take the small milestones as we hit them.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Before we start going into this year’s numbers, let’s first take a moment to go over what this method actually is, what it tracks, and all of that other stuff. First, I used Baseball-Reference’s Stathead search feature to look at every Hall of Fame position player, ordered by (their version of) Wins Above Replacement. That makes it easy to find the median Hall of Famer, right in the middle of the pack. Then, I search for the same set by age, looking at where the median fell for all Hall of Famers through their age 20 season, then their age 21 season, and so on, all the way until we’re back to the overall median. That gives us our “Median WAR by Age” line, which we’ll be comparing the players to.<br /><br />From there, we can get our approximate odds for players who are at or above the median at different ages. First, we look at those median marks for each age and the half of the Hall of Fame members who are above it. Then, I compare it to all of the eligible players who were <i>also </i>above that mark at that age but <i>did not</i> eventually get elected, and take the percentage of players who made it to the Hall out of total players above the median. <br /><br />To use some fake round numbers as an example: say we had 100 Hall of Famers, and our median for the set through age 22 was 5.0 WAR. We’d have 50 Hall of Famers above 5.0 WAR. Say also that there were 100 other players, who had 5.0 WAR through their age 22 season <b><i>but did not</i></b> make the Hall of Fame. That would give us: (50 5.0 WAR Players in the Hall) divided by (150 total 5.0 WAR players), equaling out to roughly 33% chances of induction. <br /><br />Remember, none of this is necessarily commenting on whether a player will be worthy of induction, or should be inducted; there are of course things like normal snubs above the Hall line who are not inducted, below-median players who make Cooperstown anyway, below-median players who are inducted for extenuating circumstances, “worthy” players who aren’t in for non-play reasons (e.g. steroids), players who might yet get in via the Veterans Committee, and a whole host of other caveats. Those are all interesting and important, but not really a thing that we can universally account for. All this method does is serve as an objective measuring stick to give us an unusual perspective: <i>how do active players stack up against average Hall of Famers when they were the same age, and how did those average Hall of Famers stack up against everyone else through that age? </i><br /><br />For additional errata, I’m grouping players by their age during the 2023 season, so the players in the Age 23 group will be in their Age 24 season in 2024. Player Age for a year is based on what their age will be on July 1st in a given season, as is the standard convention. And lastly, I’m only including American League and National League stats, because this whole system is based on comparing precedent to current players, and while the Negro Leagues results are major league stats, I’m not sure they make for a conducive yardstick given the differences in the leagues and the Hall induction methods.<br /><br /><br />Okay, all that out of the way, we’re ready to jump in to the position player results (with active pitchers to follow in the next article):<br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br /><b>Age 20: 0.45 WAR Median; 28.10% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carteev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Carter</a> (1.6 WAR)</b><br /><br />There were only four 20-and-under position players in the Majors last year, combining for just 52 games and 178 plate appearances. However, the WAR threshold here is pretty low, so it’s still reachable with an even middling performance. Evan Carter’s 23 games were far better than middling (including a .306/.413/.645 batting line and a 182 OPS+), so he even made it most of the way to his 2024 goal, but <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=,dominja01&search=Jasson+Dominguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jasson Dominguez</a> (0.2 WAR) also game close to 0.45 despite only playing 8 games.<br /><br /><b><br />Age 21: 1.9 WAR Median; 35.03% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tovarez01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ezequiel Tovar</a> (2.2 WAR)</b><br /><br />We only pick up a dozen more position players by including the age 21 group. Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar just clears it, but he’s also the leader in Games Player in this group by a good margin, with a full 162 under his belt. He can probably keep pace this year by just continuing to stay healthy and fielding well, but he’s actually going to need to hit a little to have a hope beyond that (he has a career OPS+ of 76 right now). Mets catcher <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Alvarez</a> (1.0 WAR) also deserves some mention, since catchers are usually given a little more leeway in Hall consideration due to the demands of the position. <br /><br /> <br /><b>Age 22: 4.2 WAR Median; 38.64% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodriju01,rodrig010jul,rodrig014jul,rodrig015jul&search=Julio+Rodríguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Rodriguez</a> (11.5 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrimi04.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Michael Harris II</a> (8.7 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendegu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gunnar Henderson</a> (7.1 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carroco02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corbin Carroll</a> (6.6 WAR)</b><br /><br />It’s so convenient that I can knock out both the 2023 AND 2022 Rookie of the Year pairs in one blurb! And Rodriguez is already set through the 2025 season! Harris is also already good to go for this year, while Henderson is within half a win. Every so often, we just get age groups with a ton of strong players lumped together like this, and it’s always fun to trace how they do year to year; even if not all of them keep up, they usually at least all wind up interesting discussions! This year’s Age 30 group is another one like this, as is the Age 33 one. I remember back when I started, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a>, Joe Mauer, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Wright</a> all wound up in a group above their age median together too (and that age group even included <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yadier Molina</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martiru01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Russell Martin</a> on top of that!).<br /><br />Outside of these four, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abramcj01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">CJ Abrams</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Riley Greene</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volpean01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Anthony Volpe</a> all finished within a win of the 4.2 Win benchmark. Also, technically, Julio Rodriguez doesn’t lead this age bracket, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francwa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Wander Franco</a> narrowly does (11.6 WAR), but I’ll be considering him as “non-active” going forward <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/prosecutors-file-evidence-against-rays-shortstop-wander-franco-in-dominican-republic-probe-2/">due to his very serious legal issues</a>.<br /><br /> <br /><b>Age 23: 7.55 WAR Median; 42.39% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br />We have our first set with no one above the median for their age, but there are still promising young players here, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wittbo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Witt Jr.</a> (5.3 WAR) or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morenga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gabriel Moreno</a> (5.0 WAR). Witt could conceivably get back on pace this season (he’d need 5.7 WAR), even if it’s a bit of a long-shot. Moreno probably won’t reach that, but again, he is a catcher, so he can fall a little short and still remain in the conversation.<br /><br /> <b><br />Age 24: 11.0 WAR Median; 43.01% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=sotoju01,soto--004jua&search=Juan+Soto&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Juan Soto</a> (28.6 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tatisfe02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fernando Tatis Jr.</a> (19.0 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a> (15.2 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gimenan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andres Gimenez</a> (14.6 WAR) </b><br /><br />We’ve reached the part of the article where the yearly Wins Above Replacement needed to keep up with the Hall trend starts to grow. As such, it’s difficult to build up too big of a buffer; when the median is going up by 4 or 5 Wins per year, even an MVP-level season doesn’t give you a lot of extra value to bank. And yet, in spite of that, Juan Soto is already cleared through the 2026 season. I <i>understand </i>that there are reasons for how his career has gone, but I <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/87051/deep-but-playable-juan-soto-traded-again-somehow/">still agree with this Craig Goldstein piece</a> about how wild it is that a player this historic is already on his third franchise, with the potential to hit a fourth (and maybe even a fifth, should the Yankees melt down and decide to sell?) by this time next year. Yeah, it all makes sense in each individual moment, but the larger picture here still looks weird as heck.<br /><br />I’m looking back at last year’s post and realizing that I just didn’t remember Fernando Tatis Jr. He should have been included, I just forgot to look for him after he missed all of the 2022 season due to injuries and a failed PED test. I suppose the drug test puts his “real” Hall chances pretty close to 0%, but who knows where the electorate will be 20 or so years from now when he actually hits the ballot. Maybe they’ll be more forgiving by then? But that would probably also require him keeping his nose clean until then as well.<br /><br />Vlad Jr. having an MVP-level season at age 22 got him a good head start on chasing the Hall median, but his last two seasons have not been up to the same level, and if he doesn’t turn that around, it will catch up to him fast. Another 2.0-Win (like 2023) year will be enough to keep him set through 2024, but not any further beyond that. <br /><br />I kind of feel bad after long write-ups for the other three, but I don’t really have much to say about Andres Gimenez beyond “keep up the good work”. Also, our top runner-up here is another catcher, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kirkal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alejandro Kirk</a> (6.9 WAR), so that’s also worth mentioning. <br /><br /><br /> <b>Age 25: 16.1 WAR Median; 52.56% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/acunaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ronald Acuña Jr.</a> (25.9 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bichebo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bo Bichette</a> (17.7 WAR)</b><br /><br />Acuña’s 2023 MVP campaign was big enough in terms of Wins to set him up through the next two seasons; he’s right now exactly on the median for Hall of Famers after their age-27 season (although technically, there’s a chance that 25.9 <i>won’t</i> be the median anymore by the time we reach 2026, depending on how the next few Hall elections go, but we’ll look past that for now). And for another example of how aggressively the totals here increase, if his 2024 is like 2023 (where, as a reminder, he hit 41 homers, stole 73 bases, and posted a 1.012 OPS/168 OPS+), Acuña would still remain just two years ahead of pace (albeit with a headstart on a third this time rather than right on the mark, at least).<br /><br />After him, we see Bo Bichette in second place, although he’s not far enough ahead of pace to already be in the clear for this season. After him, the first runner-up is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberlu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Robert Jr.</a> at 12.5 WAR, which is actually kind of impressive given that he’s missed 175 games over the last three seasons combined. Between those three years plus his pandemic-shortened rookie season, he’s averaged under 92 games a year, which goes to highlight how important health is here. And finally, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rutscad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adley Rutschman</a> is after them with 9.6 bWAR, but again, he’s a catcher (plus Fangraph’s WAR likes him a little more than that, which is maybe a little more relevant given that it includes stuff like pitch framing).<br /><br /> <b><br />Age 26: 20.9 WAR Median; 56.46% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/albieoz01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ozzie Albies</a> still leads this set with 20.2 WAR, but it’s just a hair short. I mentioned last year that Albies had been above the median pace for years after his debut at the age of 20, but his lack of a high-peak combined with injuries had done that in. Last year, Albies had a strong rebound season (4.7 WAR), but it still counted as losing ground thanks to that 4.8 WAR increase from the age 25 median, and he’ll need a career-best season to get back above the line next year. <br /><br />There are also a ton of players in the 18-to-19 Win range here, including <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rafael Devers</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kyle Tucker</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yordan Alvarez</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rileyau01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Austin Riley</a>. On the one hand, getting on pace for next year would be a big lift, requiring an MVP-level performance in 2024; but on the other hand, that’s a talented set of players all in their prime, so I wouldn’t say they’re all guaranteed to fall short. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 27: 25.9 WAR Median; 60.43% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br />Speaking of “Players who started strong to rise above the Hall trendline, fell off for a few seasons and consequently dropped below it, then had a bounce-back 2023 that didn’t quite get them ahead of the Hall median”, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cody Bellinger</a> leads this age group with 22.1 WAR. His peak was stronger than Albies and his low-points much lower, but there are definitely some similarities. And much like Albies, even repeating his best season won’t get him back above the Hall median next year (despite how great Bellinger’s 2019 MVP campaign was). The players running behind Bellinger here are also a step behind the ones trailing Albies, including <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/adamewi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willy Adames</a> (18.5 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimha01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ha-Seong Kim</a> (12.9 WAR).<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 28: 31.1 WAR Median; 65.38% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Correa</a> (40.9 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shohei Ohtani</a> (34.7 WAR)</b><br /><br />Carlos Correa had a bit of a rough 2023 (1.4 WAR), but he is still keeping up with the Hall of Fame pace; his young start and high peaks mean he’s still already in the clear through 2025. If he doesn’t turn it around, obviously his chances at future induction go down dramatically, but even future Hall of Famers will have injury-plagued (or even healthy) down years during what’s otherwise their peak. With a quick search on Stathead and limiting my search to 100 games played or more, I still counted over two dozen sub-2.0 WAR seasons from future Hall of Famers between the ages of 25 and 32, even just limiting my search to the integration era (and you can easily double that total if you extend your search window to the start of the live ball era). Part of being Hall of Fame-level good is that you can cover for those unexpected rough years.<br /><br />Last year, I wasn’t sure how to include Shohei Ohtani on these lists; he didn’t have enough hitting WAR to make the hitter list, he didn’t have enough pitching WAR to make the pitching list, and if you combined them both, he still fell short of the hitter mark (he <i>did </i>make the pitching median in that scenario, but that one is much less indicative of future election at age 27). I think combining the two and comparing it to the hitter total is probably the best call, but also at a certain point, I think it’s fair to recognize that comparing a generational player like Ohtani to the idea of the Hall median feels a little… incomplete. To put it another way, we can’t go off the historical precedent to predict such an unprecedented player; he’s simply going to be judged differently than most players, and there’s no getting around that. <br /><br />With all that being said, he’s still holding up well in this regard! He’s above the line, and in a good spot to stay above it for next year. After him, the age-28 cohort drops off substantially, with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alonspe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pete Alonso</a> (17.3 WAR) leading the way.<br /><br /><b><br />Age 29: 35.9 WAR Median; 73.28% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Lindor</a> (42.7 WAR)<br /></b><br />This is a deceptively deep group to talk about, in spite of having only one name over the median. But at the top is Francisco Lindor, who has recovered nicely over the last two years following a rough Mets debut. It’s kind of funny he still hasn’t picked up an All-Star selection in New York, despite two straight ninth-place finishes in the MVP vote. Once again, he’s in the clear for 2024 and already working towards his 2025 total.<br /><br />Our first runner-up is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Bregman</a>, missing the median mark by just half a win (35.4). That’s close enough that you easily see how mildly better luck would have put him over the mark (getting called up a little earlier in 2016, a slightly longer pandemic year, a slightly healthier 2021…). The good news for him is that just repeating his 2023 season would get him over the age 30 mark for next season.<br /><br />After Bregman are two players who had huge 2023s, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Seager</a> (32.0 WAR, second in AL MVP voting) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=olsonma02,olson-006mat&search=Matt+Olson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Olson</a> (29.1 WAR, fourth in NL MVP voting). Both of them are far enough away from the age 30 mark that even repeating their stellar 2023 seasons wouldn’t be enough to carry them over the line. But they’re so good that it’s hard to totally rule them out, and it’s not like there isn’t a path forward for either of them. Plenty of players have come back from later or slower career beginnings to build Hall of Fame careers. It’s going to take several great and healthy years in a row, almost certainly including a big season or two in your mid-30s, which is always the big risk compared to a player who starts hot at a young age and can weather a freak injury year or something. But despite all that, it certainly isn’t impossible.<br /> <br /><br /><b>Age 30: 40.0 WAR Median; 74.78% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mookie Betts</a> (64.5 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a> (54.9 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a> (46.2 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=ramirjo01,ramirjo02,ramire023jos,ramire022jos,ramire032jos,ramire036jos,ramire034jos,ramire030jos&search=José+Ramírez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Ramirez</a> (45.6 WAR)</b><br /><br />In this group, we have our first player already above the overall Hall median for position players: Mookie Betts. Last year, I mentioned that just repeating his 2022 season would get him above that line, but he actually went and improved from there in basically every way, playing 10 more games, upping his batting line from .269/.340/.533 to .307/.408/.579, and even picking up nearly 500 innings at second base and another 100 at shortstop on top of his normal stellar play in right field. He’s also officially at 10 seasons, meaning he would now be eligible for Cooperstown if he were to retire. Would Hall voters actually go for him in that extreme hypothetical? Maybe not, but that might also depend on the specifics of the scenario; either way, I imagine that question will remain no more than a thought experiment. But if you want to start describing Betts as a “Future Hall of Famer” at this point, I certainly have your back.<br /><br />It would take a little bit of a long-shot, but Manny Machado can join Betts above the Hall median this season. If he has a year like his 2022 campaign (where he finished second in NL MVP voting), he’ll basically land exactly on the Hall median. However, if he can “only” replicate his 2023, he’ll… be in the clear for the rest of the 2020s, with nearly a decade left on his contract to pick up the remaining 3 WAR. I don’t expect him to ease up from here, but even if Machado ran into a <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ken Griffey Jr.</a>-shaped injury minefield from here, he’s pretty well set-up for eventual induction. Also, if you want a related thing to watch for here, Machado is already an MVP-level season away from moving into third in Padres history for Wins Above Replacement.<br /><br />After those two, we have Bryce Harper and Jose Ramirez in a virtual tie, separated by less than a win. Both have hit their goal for 2024 already and are working towards their 2025 marks; repeating their 2023 seasons would keep them a year ahead of schedule. Yes, that even goes for Harper, despite his injury-woes; hopefully the plan to move him to first base for health reasons pays off and we get to see more of him. <br /><br />And then there’s honorable mention <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Xander Bogaerts</a>, who has managed to make it above the Hall median a few times in the past. Right now, he sits at 39.6 WAR, less than half a Win away from where he needs to be. If he can bounce back to where he was his last two seasons in Boston, he’s back above the median, but even repeating his 2023 San Diego debut would mean he was essentially staying even with the Hall of Fame median. That’s certainly not a bad place to be, even if it doesn’t come with the insurance of being a year or two ahead of schedule. <br /><br />After Bogaerts on the list is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turnetr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trea Turner</a>, but with just 33.0 WAR, he’s got some ground to make up still. As some interesting trivia, though: Turner is (by WAR) already the second-best player in MLB history born on June 30th, behind only <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fernato01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tony Fernandez</a>. You may recall that’s the cut-off for season-ages that I mentioned earlier; in fact, he’s almost a full year younger than Manny Machado, despite the two of them being grouped together here (Turner was born on 6/30/1993, while Machado was born on 7/6/1992). I don’t know how or even if this should factor into any predictions going forward (Is Turner a “young” 31 this year? Is it more reasonable to compare him to the year below him? Does this actually matter in estimating aging curves?), but it came up while I was researching, so I wanted to mention it all the same.<br /><br /> <br /><b>Age 31: 44.55 WAR Median; 78.90% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a> (85.2 WAR)</b><br /><br />Mike Trout has been above the overall Hall median since the 2019 edition of this article. My first “Future Hall of Fame” article came out back in January 2013, following Trout’s 2012 Rookie of the Year campaign. So officially, Trout has now been over the Hall median for as many “Future Hall” articles as he was below it, at six each. <br /><br />Despite being the same age as Trout, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Judge</a> took an extra half a decade to reach the majors, winning the 2017 AL Rookie of the Year for his age-25 season. Historically, your odds of making the Hall after a start that late have not been great… and yet, Judge sits at 41.5 WAR, about 3 Wins shy of where a future Hall of Famer his age would be. A healthy 2023 might have gotten him the rest of the way! It’ll be hard to catch up this year (not <i>impossible</i>, but another 62 homer season is probably a long shot), but realistically? The 4.1-Win jump from 31 to 32 is the last big one along the way to the overall Hall median; 32 to 33 is a 3.7 Win increase, and everything else is under 2.0 Wins per season. Three more All-Star seasons isn’t nothing, but it’s also not impossible to imagine that for Judge as long as he can stay healthy, and that would get him right up to his age’s median. And four of them would basically take him all the way to the Hall’s overall median. <br /><br />If nothing else, it’s easier to imagine Judge doing that than <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yelicch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Christian Yelich</a>, who’s less than 2 Wins behind him at 39.8 WAR. I hesitate to rule him out entirely; after all, new Cooperstown inductee Adrian Beltre at 31 hadn’t even reached his days as a Texas Ranger, the hat he’ll be wearing on his Hall plaque. Nothing is impossible at this level of play. And yet… Yelich’s last four years are noticeably worse than even Beltre’s days in Seattle. If he wants to turn things around, he’s going to need at least a few more All-Star-level seasons, the sooner the better.<br /><br /><b><br />Age 32: 48.65 WAR Median; 78.18% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a> (54.4 WAR)</b><br /><br />We have another player set through the end of next season in Nolan Arenado, and he’s about 7.4 Wins away from the overall median. Two good years should put him over, but even if all he can manage in the final four years of his contract is average, 2-Win seasons followed by retirement, I think that would probably be enough? That would put him just over the Hall median, with maybe something like 2200 hits, over 400 homers, 8 All-Star Appearances, 10 Gold Gloves, 6 top-ten finishes in MVP… like, it’s a little on the light side, and maybe the Hall voters’ bias against third basemen would keep him out, but that seems like a pretty strong resume, right? Hopefully he can manage a lot more than that though, just to be safe. <br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/semiema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Semien</a> could be another one of those late bloomers who catches up to the mark. Right now, he’s at 41.8 WAR and coming off a 7.4 Win season and a three-season average of 6.7 WAR. Like I mentioned for Judge, any All-Star-level seasons Semien can manage from this point forward will go a long way to catching him up: two seasons like last year’s or three at a 5-Win level will get it done. Of course, even if he can stay healthy and play well for long enough to reach the mark, will that convince voters? They’ve historically struggled to recognize late-bloomers who split their careers across teams (not that it’s Semien’s fault that he started with Oakland or hit free agency after a pandemic year, but it still will come up for the surlier voters), he might not reach any big milestones, and unlike Arenado, Semien is actually under-decorated given his output (for example, Semien still only has 2 All-Star selections, despite finishing third in MVP voting three different times). I’m hoping he can pull it off, but he might have less leeway than most other candidates I’m discussing here. <br /><br />And before we move on, I’ll mention <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/realmjt01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">J.T. Realmuto</a>, who’s third in this age group with 33.3 WAR. I know I’ve said that catchers get a little more leeway than other players, but that still feels a little far off. Like, he’s still nearly a dozen Baseball-Reference WAR behind <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a> (who I think will make it in despite a short career, although Joe Mauer’s close cut this year makes me unsure if he’ll be a first ballot choice), and again, that’s not even accounting for Posey being a very good pitch framer while Realmuto is slightly below-average. I think Realmuto will also probably need several more good seasons to even get in the Hall conversation. <br /> <br /><br /><b>Age 33: 50.45 WAR Median; 76.11% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Freddie Freeman</a> (55.7 WAR)<br /></b><br />I feel like I’ve been a little too pessimistic in the last few sections, worrying that great players might not have any more MVP-level years in their early 30s. Freddie Freeman is a good reminder that that’s not really a given, coming off a pair of top-four finishes in MVP voting. Freeman is in the clear for 2024 and within spitting distance of where he needs to be through 2025, but really, just repeating 2023 would get him over the overall Hall median with some room to spare. That’s realistically the bigger focus at this point. <br /><br />In a world where <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Altuve</a> didn’t miss a month and a half last year to a freak HBP injury in the World Baseball Classic, he’s up there with Freeman. Right now, he’s just shy at 49.3 WAR, but a healthy 5-WAR season (his 162-game pace over the last few years) would get him back over the median line for the first time since before the 2020 season. <br /><br />After those two, we have quite the mix of fallen stars. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a> (44.0 WAR), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a> (40.7 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rizzoan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Anthony Rizzo</a> (39.6 WAR) all used to finish above the Hall of Fame pace for their age (as did <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a>, although he officially retired back in December), but they’ve all been on a downward trend for a while. Maybe one of them can somehow put it back together and build a second act to their career, clawing their way to a Cooperstown finish? It’s not impossible, but I’d definitely want to see evidence of that before I call it anything more than “not impossible”. <br /><br />This is also where we find catcher <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Salvador Perez</a> (33.0 WAR); again, catcher’s have some extra leeway, and I already see some people throwing around comparisons to likely future inductee Yadier Molina. But Perez is still a step behind Molina (who I imagine will still be a contentious candidate, even if I think he makes it) even before factoring in that most of our more advanced catcher defense metrics don’t like Perez very much (let alone as much as Molina). I’m going to call this “unlikely” for now, but with some wild card potential; pay attention to things like how Baseball Writers talk about him as his career winds down to see if there’s wider support for him than it might seem.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 34: 54.15 WAR Median; 77.48% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br />This age bracket has always been a little on the light side. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a> (34.0 WAR) led it for a while by starting so young, but his lack of a high peak (only one 5+ WAR season, only 2 more 4+) meant he couldn’t keep up. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martest01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Starling Marte</a> (37.9 WAR) passed him eventually, and while he has <i>more </i>of a peak than Andrus (two 5+ WAR seasons, four more 4+ WAR ones), it’s still not really a Hall of Fame-level peak. Like, I don’t want to say that MVP votes are necessarily everything, but there’s a reason Marte has only received one MVP vote in his career (a tenth place vote in 2022). <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 35: 55.9 WAR Median; 76.11% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Paul Goldschmidt</a> (61.7 WAR)</b><br /><br />Technically, Goldschmidt is below the overall Hall median, but only by the thinnest margin. That milestone should be in the cards for him this year, in addition to 2000 hits and 350 homers. We are again probably at the point where you can call him “Future Hall of Famer Paul Goldschmidt” and everyone will just kind of agree with you. No one else here is remotely close (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">J.D. Martinez</a> is a very distant second, at 30.0 WAR).<br /><br />Now that I think about it, we only have three active players above the position player Hall median this year (Trout, Betts, and one more that we’ll get to shortly). That seems like a new low in the time I’ve been writing the Future Hall of Fame series? I could always rely on Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera for an easy two for most of that time, and Mike Trout made it right around the time we finally lost <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrial01,rodrig059ale,rodrig040ale,rodrig054ale,rodrig051ale,rodrig053ale,rodrig052ale,rodrig023ale,rodrig031ale,rodrig049ale,rodrig011ale,rodrig039ale,rodrig042ale&search=Alex+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a> and Adrian Beltre to retirement, plus there were always a handful of other players to fill out our list. Goldschmidt’s closeness to the mark means we probably won’t drop below this anytime soon, but depending on how Arenado, Freeman, Machado, and the rest do, we might be stuck with only three for a bit.<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 36: 57.85 WAR Median; 77.48% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a> (48.6 WAR) is just barely within 10 Wins of this mark, but that’s it. I wouldn’t be shocked if he finishes within 10 of the overall median, but making up that full gap sounds highly unlikely. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a> is quite a ways behind him in second place (31.9 WAR), although a lot of his early peak seasons were spent in Cuba. I did <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/06/Jose-Abreu-1500-hits-milestone.html">write an article on that topic last June</a>, although I couldn’t really approximate a WAR total to go with it. I don’t know if he’d pick up a full 26 WAR to put him over the median, but I feel like he would at least be very close. No idea if Hall voters will go for that argument, though. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 37: 59.5 WAR Median; 81.90% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None<br /></b><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a> (58.6 WAR) is within a win of this age median. Despite a shaky 2023, if he can stay healthy and wants to play, I can see him reaching 61.8 career Wins, right in line with the overall median… but even if he does, will Hall voters actually go for him? It took them a while to come around on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a>, and his case was more overwhelming than Longoria’s. I can see him at least hanging around the ballot for a few years, though, especially if he comes back this year and makes it to 2000 hits and 350 homers. If David Wright can make a second ballot (or more), then Longoria certainly deserves it. That’s all a lot more than I can see for the next runner-up, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson</a> (46.8 WAR).<br /><br /><br /><b>Age 38: 60.15 WAR Median; 81.90% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turneju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Turner</a> (36.5 WAR) leads this age bracket among position players, largely because he is the only one still in it. Everyone else has retired. <br /><br /><br /><b>Age 39: 60.6 WAR Median; 83.50% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a> (64.4 WAR)</b><br /><br />And now, we have our final active player over the Hall median: Joey Votto, who remains unsigned at the start of Spring Training. I have no idea if anyone will change that, but he seems willing to play, and it appears that Cincinnati has decided to move on. It makes sense given their crowded young infield, but it does mean that this year is going to give us either Joey Votto in something other than a Reds uniform, or no Joey Votto at all, and both of those options seem really weird to think about. Either way, depending on how that plays out, I think you can pencil him in for either the Hall of Fame Class of 2029 or 2030<br /><br />The only other position player of this age last year was <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gourryu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yuli Gurriel</a>, who also remains unsigned but <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mlb-rumors-yuli-gurriel-free-agent.html">seems open to playing more</a>. And since I highlighted my piece on Jose Abreu in the Cuban league earlier, I might as well use this space to highlight <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2019/09/yuli-gurriel-2019-historic-cuba.html">my similar piece on Yuli Gurriel from a few years ago</a>. <br /><br /> <br /><b>Age 40: 61.1 WAR Median; 84.31% of all players at this mark elected<br />Overall: 61.8 WAR Median; 82.15% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: None</b><br /><br />Technically, Miguel Cabrera just finished his age-40 season and is over the Hall median, but he’s also no longer active, so he doesn’t get included here. Look for him to hit the BBWAA ballot for the 2029 Hall election. <br /><br />In fact, the only other over-40 position player in the league last year was <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=cruzne02,cruzne01&search=Nelson+Cruz&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-26_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nelson Cruz</a>, who has also announced his retirement. That means that Justin Turner is technically the oldest position player in the league right now, at least until one or both of Joey Votto and Yuli Gurriel sign somewhere.<br /><br /><br /><br />And with that, we can close the book on the 2024 Hitters article. As per usual, the next thing we cover will be the Pitchers; still no estimated release date there since the writing is still happening, but it will hopefully get posted sometime in the next week or two. 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.formkit-fields{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:25px auto 0 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-field{min-width:220px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 0 15px 0;-webkit-flex:1 0 100%;-ms-flex:1 0 100%;flex:1 0 100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] [data-style="minimal"]{padding:40px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"]{margin-left:-5px;margin-right:-5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form>Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-15862280897634958502024-02-09T02:50:00.005-05:002024-02-09T02:52:47.801-05:00Backyard Baseball 2024: Revisiting the Idea of a RevivalI’ve had a fairly busy month for writing. There was of course <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/2024%20Hall%20of%20Fame">all of my Hall of Fame coverage</a>; that always keeps me pretty packed.* I also just published <a href="http://www.hchoutofleftfield.com/2024/01/music-monday-end-of-2023-playlist.html">a very large playlist covering the music I listened to over the last few months of 2023</a> over at Out of Left Field; as a reminder, if you want to see my non-baseball writing, <a href="http://adept-speaker-2764.ck.page/f85f0ad96c">I have a separate mailing list for that</a>! I’ve even started prepping for the 2024 installments of my <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/p/future-hall-of-fame-series.html">Future Hall of Fame series</a>, so expect that in the next few weeks.<br /><br /><i>*I also had another Hall of Fame article that I put a lot of effort into, but I ultimately had to scrap because I couldn’t get it to where I wanted it before the results came in. However, I may try to rework it into something new once the Future Hall updates are done, so maybe keep an eye out for that. Plus, I have a few other music and video game pieces in the works.</i><br /><br />But I can’t resist taking a break for a fun idea. So when I learned that Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce is a fan of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backyard_Sports">Backyard Sports series</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/CespedesBBQ/status/1752806685012357483">has actually looked into buying the rights to revive it</a>, it was too good to pass up. And it makes sense; for people of a certain age, those games were incredibly influential, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/features/2017/10/10/16451300/backyard-baseball-20-year-anniversary">and for pretty good reason</a>! I wish him luck in his quest to bring them back!<br /><br />My angle on this is pretty obvious: What would a Backyard Baseball roster look like going into the 2024 season? I’ve actually looked into the idea twice before, <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2017/08/hypothetical-backyard-baseball-2017-roster.html">back in 2017</a> and then again <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2020/03/building-backyard-baseball-2020-roster.html">during the delay of the 2020 season</a>, so it’s been a little while. Back at their peak, Humongous Entertainment’s individual sports series were releasing new games every year or two, so four years should give us a decent amount of turnover. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />As a quick refresher, I’m using the rules of <i>Backyard Baseball 2001</i> and <i>2003</i>, where the developers would include 31 real pro players (one from each team, with one team getting two, which I’ll get into more later). Later games would stray from both rules somewhat,* but this gives us a little more structure. Plus, I think it’s more fun this way, sort of like getting to pick the face of a franchise at a given time.<br /><br /><i>*Also, those later games just generally weren’t very good anyway, although that’s less of a deciding factor.</i><br /><br />While there weren’t hard-and-fast rules beyond those, there were a few other you could see trends. You’d generally want mid-career stars, although older stars at the end of their careers could be added if they were big enough names, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ripkeca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cal Ripken Jr.</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gwynnto02,gwynnto01&search=Tony+Gwynn&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tony Gwynn</a> (sometimes, though, neither were available). Players were strong favorites to return if they were still on the same team, although not guaranteed (about 14 out of 18 eligible players from <i>2001 </i>were back in <i>2003</i>), and some big enough names came back even after changing teams (i.e. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrial01,rodrig054ale,rodrig053ale,rodrig052ale,rodrig051ale,rodrig049ale,rodrig031ale,rodrig023ale,rodrig042ale,rodrig040ale,rodrig039ale&search=Alex+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/giambja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jason Giambi</a>). Positionally, there wasn’t a huge attempt to balance things, so it’s not a huge issue if we’re not even ourselves. However, one thing to note is that pitchers did feel like a bit of an afterthought (<i>2001 </i>included just 2, <i>2003 </i>had 3), so it’s probably fine if we focus on position players first and foremost. <br /><br />Let’s begin with the spots that give us an easy starting point: only thirteen players that I picked for the 2020 roster were even still with the same teams in 2023. However, three of those thirteen are already guaranteed to be elsewhere for 2024 (the retired <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a>, the released <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a>, and the traded <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a>), and another, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a>, is still a free agent (and one who seems likely to sign elsewhere).<br /><br />How are the other nine looking? <br /><br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br /><br /><b>Astros, Angels, Yankees:</b> Only ten teams repeated their representatives between my 2017 and 2020 editions, and barring Votto resigning, these are the only ones that could go for a three-peat. Andreally, I don’t see any reason for any of them to change; <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Altuve</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Judge</a> all remain some of the biggest stars of the game, and they all seem incredibly fun to translate into the game’s playful aesthetic (I imagine the size contrast between Altuve and Judge especially would be fun for animators to caricature).<br /><br />There are enticing alternatives on Houston and New York, between players like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yordan Alvarez</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=sotoju01,soto--004jua&search=Juan+Soto&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Juan Soto</a>, but the one-player-per-team rule is a harsh mistress. The Angels probably would have taken the second spot last year, but now there’s really no one to challenge Trout’s spot. <br /><br /><br /><b>Padres, Philies:</b> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a> had just finished their first seasons in their new homes last time, and four years later, they remain the go-to picks for their teams. Future Hall of Famers who are still stars, and who should stick town around for the foreseeable future. Maybe they’ll get worse and someone will rise to claim their spot in the future (although as mentioned, the original Backyard Baseball wasn’t averse to using past-their-prime stars with name brand recognition), but that’s not at all where we are in 2024. <br /><br /><br /><b>Blue Jays:</b> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a> was a bit of a reach pick in 2020, but an understandable one; the 2020 Jays were only just about to escape the lull of their post-<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=bautijo02,bautijo01&search=José+Bautista&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a> era, and it wasn’t clear who would be the biggest star. I went with Vlad Jr., partly because <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero</a> Sr. was in the original Backyard Baseball, but that gamble turned out pretty darn well! I’m sympathetic to the idea that <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bichebo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bo Bichette</a> is the better player here, as Vlad hasn’t really lived up to his 2021 MVP-runner-up season in the years since, so maybe he could be swapped in. But Guerrero is still doing flashy stuff like winning Home Run Derbies, <a href="https://twitter.com/mlb/status/1752392093165646203">making video game covers</a>, and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/guerrero-salary-arbitration-record-8282c56c957f84f0f0432ce8212a48f7">winning historic arbitration amounts</a>, so I think he holds on here too.<br /><br /><br /><b>Brewers: </b>I thought about using one of our limited pitching spots on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burneco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corbin Burnes</a> in my first draft of this piece; however, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/orioles-nearing-deal-for-corbin-burnes.html">his recent trade to Baltimore</a> puts the kibosh on that idea. So we might as well go back to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yelicch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Christian Yelich</a>, who’s under contract for longer than impending free agent <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/adamewi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willy Adames</a> and has more of a track record than <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/contrwi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">William Contreras</a>. <br /><br /><b><br />Pirates: </b>I couldn’t pick <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a> to rep the Pirates back in 2020 as he was out touring the league, but back in 2017 I wrote that he “feels like the type of player who was born to be in a game like Backyard Baseball. He plays the game with such an infectious joy, it’s hard to picture anyone else from this team here.” We’re going to take advantage of his return to Pittsburgh and reappoint their beloved star, even if his best days are behind him.<br /><br /><br /><b>Dodgers:</b> This one is actually somewhat complicated. So, back on the 2020 list, I actually included two Dodgers: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cody Bellinger</a> (the then-reigning NL MVP) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mookie Betts</a> (who was traded there from Boston just before the article ran). There’s actually a bit of a history of one team getting two slots in Backyard Baseball: in the first edition with pros, original Mariners choice <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ken Griffey Jr.</a> was traded to Cincinnati during the game’s development, and they just left in original Reds choice <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Larkin</a> while adding Alex Rodriguez to cover Seattle. Something similar actually happened with the next version as well, this time with Jason Giambi going from Oakland to New York as a free agent, giving the Yankees two players (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a> being the original choice; <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a> would be Oakland’s replacement player).<br /><br />You probably see where I’m going with this; I don’t see any way a baseball game in 2024, even one with a limited roster, doesn’t include <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shohei Ohtani</a>.* He’s clearly the game’s biggest star at the moment. And given that he was a known free agent, it would even have been easy for hypothetical developers to just set aside the “second player slot” for him, regardless of where he went… which of course wound up being the Dodgers. Betts can also come back as the “original” Dodger pick (although if you want another option, L.A. also has <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Freddie Freeman</a>, who was my Braves pick last time). <br /><br /><i>*I was kind of shocked that I didn’t include him last time, but heading into the 2020 season, Ohtani had only played two MLB seasons, and his biggest achievement had been winning the 2018 Rookie of the Year. He still only had about 50 innings pitched at that point! His ascension to this point has been mostly just the last three years, and that’s kind of a good reminder of how quickly things can change. </i><br /><br /><br /><b>Braves:</b> Speaking of Freeman, we’ll need to replace him with another Atlanta Brave. I can’t imagine there would be many objections to Ronald Acuña Jr., coming off his historic MVP season. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rileyau01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Austin Riley</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=olsonma02,olson-006mat&search=Matt+Olson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Olson</a> would be easy picks on another team, but not here. <br /><br /><br /><b>Mariners:</b> Actually, let’s knock out a few other easy picks. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodriju01,rodrig015jul,rodrig014jul,rodrig010jul&search=Julio+Rodríguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Rodriguez</a> feels like the obvious face of the Mariners.<br /><br /><br /><b>Orioles:</b> You could maybe make the case for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendegu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gunnar Henderson</a>, but I think <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rutscad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adley Rutschman</a> holds the slight edge at the moment. <br /><br /><br /><b>Mets:</b> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Lindor</a> was the Guardians’ pick last time, as a young up-the-middle star, and he’s still the centerpiece of his new team. Maybe you could argue for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alonspe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pete Alonso</a> for his showy Home Run Derby performances, but I think Lindor still has the edge. <br /><br /><br /><b>Guardians:</b> Of course, with Lindor out of the picture in Cleveland, his former partner on the left side of the infield seems like the obvious replacement. You maybe could have gone either way back in 2020, but since then, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=ramirjo01,ramirjo02,ramire036jos,ramire032jos,ramire023jos,ramire022jos,ramire034jos,ramire030jos&search=Jose+Ramirez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Ramirez</a> has added four more top-ten MVP finishes and an extension through 2028. <br /><br /><br /><b>Rays: </b>The Rays don’t have a ton of big name stars, but <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arozara01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Randy Arozarena</a> has definitely captured national attention with his flashy play and penchant for big moments. Maybe his ceiling hasn’t been as high as the last few choices, but he’s still a star in his prime, and there isn’t much competition on the rest of the roster thanks to the Rays’ wheeling-and-dealing ways. <br /><br />With that pick, we’re halfway through building the roster! However, we’re going to have some bigger challenges in the back half…<br /><br /><br /><b>Giants: </b>I know I said that we’d try and focus on taking hitters over pitchers, but I think <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/webblo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Logan Webb</a> is just too easy a choice to deny. He’s consistent enough that choosing him doesn’t feel like a stretch, his runner-up finish in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cy Young</a> voting last year feels like proof people are starting to see him as one of the best pitchers in the league, and he’s even a local Northern California product. It also helps that the Giants are a little thinner on position players; maybe you gamble on new South Korean star <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lee---009jun&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jung Hoo Lee</a>? But that feels unnecessary. <br /><br /><br /><b>Texas:</b> This one is kind of a “wealth of options” case, where none of them have the edge that makes them feel like a no-doubter. I could see either <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a> as pitching options, although both feel like weird choices specifically as Rangers. I think <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garciad02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adolis Garcia</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/semiema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Semien</a> would both be strong options. But I ultimately think this goes to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Seager</a>; his 2023 was just too strong, especially with the World Series MVP, he’s the team’s shortstop, his early track record is Hall-worth so far, and he’s the one signed with the team longest. <br /><br /><br /><b>Tigers: </b>They haven’t had a winning season in seven years and counting, and their iconic future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera just retired. You could maybe gamble on a young, home-grown up-and-comer like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Riley Greene</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/torkesp01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Spencer Torkelson</a> establishing themselves… but you could also go with the free agent star who has name recognition but has lost a step. Yeah, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baezja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Javier Báez</a> isn’t the former All-Star and MLB: The Show cover athlete that he used to be, but he also doesn’t feel too far afield from picks like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vaughmo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mo Vaughn</a> (Angels) or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cansejo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Canseco</a> (Rays) in <i>Backyard Baseball 2001</i>. Shoot, even the original Tigers pick from that game was <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gonzaju03,gonzal022jua,gonzal020jua,gonzal019jua&search=Juan+González&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Juan Gonzalez</a>!<br /><br /><br /><b>Cubs: </b>This case seems like the mirror universe version of the Tigers. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swansda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dansby Swanson</a>’s seven-year mega-deal is off to a much better start, and he definitely has more awards and notoriety than homegrown alternative <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoernni01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nico Hoerner</a>. He even got an All-Star pick in his first season in Chicago! Maybe someone from the farm will rise to take his spot next time, but Swanson’s a solid choice until someone else forces our hand.<br /><br /><br /><b>Twins: </b>Another twist on the set-up of the last few teams: do you still go with the big-name free agent shortstop <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Correa</a>, even coming off a down season? You have other options, but they all have question marks. Homegrown <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buxtoby01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a> has been good when healthy , but that’s been rare. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lewisro02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Royce Lewis</a> has potential as a former #1 pick, but still only has 58 games under his belt. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezpa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pablo Lopez</a> has been solid, but I don’t think he’s a top-tier star right now (not to mention that most of our roster will be hitters anyway). I think I’m going with Correa still for now, but a 2023 as good as his 2022 (not to mention less free agency drama) probably would have made this feel like a much easier pick.<br /><br /><br /><b>Cardinals:</b> I stuck with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yadier Molina</a> as their pick back in 2020 over their then-recent star acquisition <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Paul Goldschmidt</a> (who was my pick for the Diamondbacks back in 2017), but now is probably his time. You could also argue for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a> (my Rockies pick in both 2017 and 2020), as both of them still feel like big stars, but I think Goldschmidt’s slightly longer St. Louis tenure and 2022 MVP win (just above Arenado, at that) are the edge. <br /><br /><br /><b>Diamondbacks:</b> I really feel like this should be <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carroco02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corbin Carroll</a>; he just strikes me as a natural fit for this game, even before getting into his astounding debut season or the way he seems poised to be a major force in the league over the next few seasons. Maybe it’s just the way the Diamondbacks have already locked him in to be the face of the franchise with his big extension (through 2031), or the way he kept popping up in big moments last year (like the All-Star Game or World Series). But this also feels kind of dismissive of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/galleza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zac Gallen</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marteke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ketel Marte</a>, neither of whom would be bad choices (there are definitely teams here where I’d take either of them without a second thought!). I think I’m sticking with my gut here, but I’m open to counter-arguments if anyone has them.<br /><br /><br /><b>Red Sox:</b> I think we’re going with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rafael Devers</a> now, especially with his big contract extension. I wouldn’t blame people who considering <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casastr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Triston Casas</a> after his exciting rookie year, but this feels to me like a case where we take the more established star and see if the young player can catch up to him down the road. <br /><br /><br /><b>Royals: </b>This one is a little weird. You could argue for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wittbo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Witt Jr.</a>, who just signed a big extension following his breakout 2023. There’s also <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Salvador Perez</a>, who’s lost a step since his prime but is still making All Star teams, and remains the final piece from the Royals’ 2014-15 Golden Age. I didn’t pick Perez back in 2020; I was a little worried about him missing all of 2019, but in retrospect, that concern feels silly.* If this was an entry in a real series, I imagine those concerns would have been overruled, and Perez would also be coming off two straight picks, making him a little harder to dislodge now. It also helps that this series is looking a little lighter on catchers, another point in Perez’s favor. I’d probably go with Perez this time to be safe (even if he is in the decline side, “declining face of the franchise” is a well-established Backyard Sports role), and give Witt the first crack at the 2027 version of this roster (or whenever I decide to tackle it again)<br /><br /><i>*It also doesn’t help that I really fumbled the make-up pick, going with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mondera02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adalberto Mondesi</a> on the hopes he would continue to improve and the sentimentality of making him and his dad <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mondera01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Raul Mondesi</a> (the Blue Jay’s pick back in </i>2001<i>) another set of father-son picks. </i><br /><br /><br /><b>White Sox: </b>Speaking of “I don’t know what I was thinking back in 2020”, I dropped my 2017 ChiSox pick <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a> and tried to buy early on the new, exciting youngster <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moncayo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yoan Moncada</a>, who had just had a breakout 2019 and inked a big extension. Abreu of course won the 2020 MVP Award, while Moncada has been pretty middling. Again, hopefully a real series would have an editor to talk me out of that choice back then. Obviously, we can’t use Abreu this time, so this is mostly to say that I’m not giving Moncada any incumbent advantage, like I have for other 2020 picks. <br /><br />This is going to be another rough roster to work with. You likely either go with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberlu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Robert Jr.</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dylan Cease</a>. Robert’s difficulties in staying healthy for a full season can be frustrating, but I think you take that over the guy who’s been on the trading block for nearly a full year and risk seeing him moved right before the release date. <br /><br /><br /><b>Marlins: </b>I think that if you wanted to put <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arraelu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Arraez</a> on the roster, this would be the year to do it. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alcansa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sandy Alcantara</a> will miss the entire 2024 season following a 2023 that didn’t live up to his dominant 2022, and Arraez is building off two strong seasons in a row. That being said… Alcantara’s track record is more than just 2022. Even his “disappointing” 2023 wasn’t actually bad, just not as good. Plus, I feel like we need more pitchers than just Ohtani and Webb, and Alcantara has certainly been one of the better choices from the last three years… Maybe if Corbin Burnes could still be our Brewers pick, or if we felt okay going with Cease regardless of whether he’d be traded, I’d be willing to pick Arraez instead. I’m going with Robert/Alcantara, but if you wanted to swap it for Cease/Arraez, I’d certainly understand you. Or maybe you could go with Arraez/Gallen if you were less sold on Corbin Carroll than I am.<br /><br /><br /><b>Rockies: </b>I feel like this has to be either <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcmahry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryan McMahon</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesno01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Jones</a>, and Backyard Baseball has typically gone with power-hitting outfielders over slick-fielding third basemen, so Jones it is. Maybe you could make a dark horse argument for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackch02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Charlie Blackmon</a> on nostalgia grounds (although having to make a child version of a player whose most defining feature is an unruly beard seems very funny).<br /><br /><br /><b>Reds: </b>There are a plethora of young Reds to choose from, and none of them has quite asserted themselves as the obvious favorite for this spot. I would honestly probably punt on making this pick and just default to Joey Votto if he was returning, but <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/reds-rumors-wont-resign-joey-votto-nick-krall.html">that seems unlikely</a> right now, so we’re going to just pick one and hope it pans out. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/delacel01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Elly de la Cruz</a> maybe didn’t have the best 2023 season out of all of our options here, but he is the youngest of our options, and his toolsy play and high potential attracted a lot of attention. He’d give Corbin Carroll and Pete Wheeler competition at the top of the speed rankings. Plus, I think an artist could have fun translating him into a tall and gawky neighborhood kid.<br /><br /><br /><b>Nationals: </b>And now, we get to “the tough choices, but in the frustrating sense”. If you ever wondered why guys like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cordoma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marty Cordova</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gonzaal02,gonzaal01,gonzal027ale,gonzal023ale,gonzal016ale,gonzal020ale&search=Alex+Gonzalez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Gonzalez</a> made the roster of <i>Backyard Baseball 2001</i>… well, go back and compare those 1999-2000 Twins and Marlins teams to the Nationals and Athletics now. <i>2003</i> also had its fair share of forgettable picks, but they seemed to go in a different direction; guys like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=vaughgr01,vaughn002gre&search=Greg+Vaughn&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Greg Vaughn</a> (Rays), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/coninje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jeff Conine</a> (Orioles), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nevinph01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Phil Nevin</a> (Padres) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/higgibo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Higginson</a> (Tigers) were all in their 30s when they were picked, sometimes several years in, and they were often hired guns, as compared to the in-house developments of Cordova and Gonzalez.<br /><br />Or maybe I’m reading too much into it; after all, there were old hired guns in the earlier game, too (Canseco, Juan Gonzalez, Mo Vaughn), and some of the under-30 reach picks in <i>2003 </i>went on to have solid-enough careers that they at least don’t look out of place. Either way, though, that’s essentially the dichotomy facing us here: do you want to gamble on a younger star who might develop to very good or even great heights (say, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=beltrca01,beltra003car&search=Carlos+Beltran&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltran</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a>) but also might just not develop into even a minor star (Cordova, Alex Gonzalez)? Or do you pick the more established smaller star just passing through, but who at least won’t completely bust? <br /><br />For Washington, I imagine the two ends of that question are probably <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abramcj01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">CJ Abrams</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joey Gallo</a>. Shortstop Abrams, just 23, has been a solid player in his first 200 games since arriving in the Juan Soto trade. Gallo, meanwhile, was my pick for the Rangers back in 2020 (beating out <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Kluber</a>, which would have been a really funny pick), coming off his first All-Star selection. He definitely wouldn’t be in the Backyard tier of “future Hall of Famer”, but I think he’s at least worked his way above the bottom tier and up to “respectable”, maybe somewhere in line with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sexsori01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Richie Sexson</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floydcl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cliff Floyd</a> or Raul Mondesi. I really don’t think there’s a “right” choice here, it just comes down to personal choice. <br /><br />I think I’d go with CJ Abrams? I suppose largely for the reason I went with Gallo for the Rangers back in 2020; you might as well bet on the younger player. Would my 2020 roster have been better if I used that spot on someone like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lance Lynn</a>? I guess, but not that much more. Meanwhile, I’m definitely going to associate Gallo with that era of Rangers teams more than either of those two, so it feels a little more representative.<br /><br /><br /><b>Athletics: </b>For as limited as the selections feel for the 2024 Nationals, I don’t really know that I’d put the A’s on even their level. Their closest choices for the “established veteran” role are probably… <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Wood</a>? <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stripro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ross Stripling</a>? We’re leaning away from pitchers, so maybe <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazal02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aledmys Diaz</a>? I can’t see taking any of them. So that leaves “young stars”... I guess we’ll take <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gelofza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Gelof</a>, who had a hot start after his mid-July promotion, over <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nodary01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryan Noda</a> or 2023 All-Star <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rookebr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brent Rooker</a>. If you want to take either of them instead though, go ahead; I suppose we are a little light on first basemen compared to the old <i>Backyard Baseball</i> rosters (although maybe that’s a good thing; the <i>2003 </i>roster had something like <b><i>8</i></b> first baseman, while the the series didn’t pick a single second baseman until <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriaal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alfonso Soriano</a> in <i>Backyard Baseball 2005</i>). <br /><br /><br /><br />In the past editions, I’ve included a secret 32nd slot for the players from the original games who were still in the league, but that’s really not an option anymore; none of the players from <i>2001 </i>through <i>2005</i> are still in the league, and the later games in the series were so bad that it can be difficult to figure out who was even on the roster (even places like the Backyard Sports Wiki don't seem to have bothered to document them?). <br /><br />If you really wanted to, maybe you could use that 32nd spot here, whether on another player who was very recently moved (Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snellbl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Blake Snell</a> whenever he signs somewhere), shoring up underrepresented positions (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raleica01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cal Raleigh</a>, Matt Olson, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheelza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Wheeler</a>…) or just picking a second star stuck behind a bigger name (Nolan Arenado, Yordan Alvarez, Marcus Semien…). I’m sure everyone has their own preferences for how that goes, but I’ll stick to just the 31 players I listed. That means our final set (separated by division to make it easier to browse) is: <br /><br /><b>AL West: Jose Altuve, Zack Gelof, Julio Rodriguez, Corey Seager, Mike Trout<br />NL West: Mookie Betts, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Jones, Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Logan Webb<br />AL Central: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baezja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-02-09_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Javier Baez</a>, Carlos Correa, Salvador Perez, Jose Ramirez, Luis Robert Jr. <br />NL Central: Elly De La Cruz, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen, Dansby Swanson, Christian Yelich<br />AL East: Randy Arozarena, Rafael Devers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Adley Rutschman<br />NL East: CJ Abrams, Ronald Acuña Jr., Sandy Alcantara, Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor</b>
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.formkit-fields{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:25px auto 0 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-field{min-width:220px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 0 15px 0;-webkit-flex:1 0 100%;-ms-flex:1 0 100%;flex:1 0 100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] [data-style="minimal"]{padding:40px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"]{margin-left:-5px;margin-right:-5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br />Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-35570840008123913932024-01-23T21:33:00.004-05:002024-01-23T21:37:21.743-05:002024 Hall of Fame Results: Beltre, Helton, and Mauer in, Wagner Just Misses, & Looking Further Ahead<p>As is becoming tradition, <a href="https://bbwaa.com/24-hof/">the BBWAA delivered mixed results on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot</a>. There are a lot of good things here, including three deserving new members of Cooperstown, but it’s also not hard to imagine how things could have gone even better. <br /><br />Let’s start with the three big positives from the election: specifically, the three members of the Cooperstown Class of 2024. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a> both made it on their first ballots, while <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a> finally broke through on his sixth attempt. As a quick update and refresher, we had 385 ballots submitted this year, meaning that to reach the 75% needed for induction, a candidate needed to get 289. I’m clarifying that because these figures will actually be important later.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Beltre was the no-doubter of the bunch. Early results from <a href="http://tracker.fyi/">Ryan Thibodaux’s Ballot Tracker</a> had him constantly above 99%, and while he didn’t finish quite that high, his 95.1% is still going to rank as one of the top twenty results in the Hall’s history. I was kind of shocked the former Ranger had 2 “No” votes in the early tracking, so I’m even more surprised that 17 additional voters found a way to leave off a third baseman with 5 Gold Gloves, 3166 hits, and 477 home runs. Maybe some of them were just trying to make space for other players, since he was so far over the line? Perhaps that’s giving them too much credit, though. Either way, it’s largely just an academic difference at this point; Cooperstown is Cooperstown, and first ballot is first ballot.<br /><br />The second plaque wound up going to Todd Helton, in something of a shock, with the first baseman finishing at 79.7%. The induction wasn’t the surprising part; Helton had been running comfortably above the 75% line in tracking (finishing at 82.6%), and in his fifth ballot last year, he only missed by 11 votes. And his stats pointed to his induction, with 2519 hits, 369 homers, and a .316/.414/.539 batting line (a 133 OPS+). No, the surprising part was that the longtime Rockie passed Mauer in the final results.<br /><br />Joe Mauer spent basically the entire ballot tracking season running neck-and-neck or better with Helton, even finishing at 83.4% before the results. I had been saying <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2024/01/first-look-2024-baseball-hall-of-fame.html">for a while</a> that I was concerned that late ballot reveals and especially private voters (i.e. ones who never share who they chose) would sink his candidacy, and while his pre-reveal margins were big enough that those concerns basically subsided, goodness did they end up making things close. The Twins backstop finished at 76.1%, clearing the bar for 75% by only 4 votes.<br /><br />It was another deserving induction in my mind, and only the third time a catcher has made the Hall of Fame on their first ballot. His career was a little short, cut down by the usual injuries that whittle away at catchers, but was it ever a high peak: 2009 MVP, three-time batting champ (a record for the position), six-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove, five-time Silver Slugger, and a .306/.388/.439 career batting line (124 OPS+). The fact that Mauer saw such a drop off in the results is kind of a sign of the type of squeeze that hit this year’s overly-stuffed ballot. <br /><br />Unfortunately, that effect was out in full force on the top runner-up, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a>. In his ninth and penultimate go-around, the former Astros closer landed at 73.8%, just five votes shy of the 289 that he needed. It’s not the closest miss in the Hall’s history (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biggicr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Biggio</a> missing by 2 votes in 2014 springs to mind), but it’s not far off from that, and it’s still just as frustrating. Wagner will get one more shot on next year’s ballot, and he’s almost certain to get the five votes he needs, but I doubt that’s going to make it any less anxiety-inducing for Wagner himself.<br /><br />Adding on to all of this is how much of the issue is caused by the Hall of Fame shooting itself in the foot with stubbornness. For years, they were reaching out to different parties about ways to alleviate their crowding on the ballot, and routinely ignored all of them. They even outright rejected a proposal from the BBWAA themselves to expand the ballot from ten spots to twelve several years ago. Just glancing down the Ballot Tracker again, I can see a few voters who wanted to vote for Wagner but ran out of spots (listed in Column AE). I wouldn’t be shocked if that change by itself would have gotten him over the line.<br /><span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a><br />From there, the drama in the results drops off. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a> placed fifth at 63.9%, quite the drop-off from his 74.2% in the pre-reveal polling. That was the second-biggest fall among players on the ballot, although it was probably to be expected; in addition to being stingier with their votes, the late and private voters are traditionally much harsher on players with ties to PEDs. Sheffield will now age off the ballot, and in his ten years, he managed to rise almost to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a>/<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Clemens</a>-levels of support, which is kind of a feat in and of itself. <br /><br />After that, we have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a>, who finally broke the 60% threshold in his seventh year. A 61.6% finish is only a moderate improvement over his 2023 results (58.1%), but forward progress in a ballot this crowded is still a big deal, and I have a feeling things will start to snowball from here for him.<br /><br />Ballot sophomore <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=beltrca01,beltra003car&search=Carlos+Beltran&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltran</a> posted the single largest improvement over his 2023 results, going from 45.5% to 57.1%. A 10-point leap in this environment is huge, and like Andruw, I have a feeling that his case will start to snowball next year, even if induction might take longer (more on that in a bit). <br /><br />Continuing down the results, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrial01,rodrig054ale,rodrig053ale,rodrig052ale,rodrig051ale,rodrig049ale,rodrig031ale,rodrig023ale,rodrig042ale,rodrig040ale,rodrig039ale&search=Alex+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a> (34.8%) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=ramirma02,ramire010man,ramire009man&search=Manny+Ramirez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Manny Ramirez</a> (32.5%) stalled out, with both candidates less than 1% lower than in 2023. Newcomer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a> debuted with 28.8% of the vote, a decent number but also a little disappointing given that he was consistently tracking around 40%.<br /><br />From there, we get to the players who were especially impacted by the ballot limits. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Abreu</a> (14.8%), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pettian01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andy Pettitte</a> (13.5%), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a> (8.3%), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrifr04,rodrifr03&search=Francisco+Rodríguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Rodriguez</a> (7.8%), and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Omar Vizquel</a> (17.7%) all lost somewhere between 0.5% and 4.0% each from 2023 (although Vizquel’s continued drop <a href="https://theathletic.com/2254716/2020/12/16/omar-vizquel-domestic-abuse/">may also be attributed</a> <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/12/31/sports/omar-vizquel-speaks-out-after-autistic-batboys-sexual-harassment-claim/">to his various misconduct</a>). Shockingly, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a> (7.8%) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Torii Hunter</a> (7.3%) actually rose a little, but less than 2% each. And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Wright</a> reached 6.2%, meaning he’ll get at least one more election. Nobody else reached the 5% threshold necessary for that. <br /><br /><br /><br />So, what does all of this mean going forward? As mentioned, the obvious thing is that Billy Wagner will very likely be going in next year. A five-ballot shortfall is a gimme, and on top of that, players usually see an extra bump in their tenth and final ballot. There are numerous other factors in his favor that make a 2025 call almost certain, but I feel like that’s not going to be much of a consolation for Wagner in the meantime.<br /><br />Things beyond that will be fairly open at the top of the 2025 ballot, thanks to our three inductions this year plus Sheffield aging off. Which is good, because next year’s class of newcomers has quite a few intriguing names. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ichiro Suzuki</a> will be taking Beltre’s role as “obvious first-ballot choice”, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">CC Sabathia</a> will presumably be getting a lot of support as well. I think he’s a deserving selection, but Hall voters have been struggling to handle starting pitchers for years now, so I don’t know that he’ll be a first ballot choice. <br /><br />Beyond those two big names, there will be <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Felix Hernandez</a>, who will be hoping that a high peak will be enough to keep him on the ballot for a few years. I think he at least deserves a second look, but that recent Hall history with starters makes me skeptical that he’ll get it. And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martiru01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Russell Martin</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brian McCann</a> will definitely generate a lot of discussion; both are lacking in traditional numbers, but their framing stats are fantastic. Will voters care enough about that to give them a second look? <br /><br />Even with all of those names, I think 2025 on the whole is technically a less crowded year than 2024. Ichiro makes a neat replacement for Beltre as mentioned, but I don’t know that Sabathia does as well as Mauer did, nor do I think that the combination of Martin, McCann, and Hernandez’s vote totals will measure up to the absence of both Helton and Sheffield.<br /><br />And that is good news for the guys who will be coming back under Wagner. Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran in particular are strong candidates to see a big jump next year. I don’t think either gets a big enough jump to join Ichiro and Wagner on the stage in 2025 (although I’ll reconsider that if they’re tracking super well on early ballots). But come 2026, when the biggest newcomers will be <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a>* and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=braunry02,braunry01&search=Ryan+Braun&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a>? That’s my prediction right now, at least one of them goes in, but maybe both (although that might depend on how CC Sabathia is trending at that point). <br /><br /><i>*Like with Felix, I think that Hamels at least deserves a deeper, second look as a candidate. But I am again skeptical that the voters will give it to him. </i><br /><br />A-Rod and Manny are probably a little too controversial to benefit from this opening, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Chase Utley takes advantage of it as well. 28.8% is not a bad debut, and we have seen recent candidates rise to election from even lower than that (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a>, Todd Helton, and soon-to-be Billy Wagner among them). <br /><br />His case is probably going to take some evangelizing from the advanced stat set, but with nine more years of ballot eligibility and a relatively light set of newcomers for the foreseeable future (2027 will only add the likely <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a> and the much less-likely <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jon Lester</a>), he certainly has an opening to start building momentum. And maybe people will get too sidetracked by the pitch framing debates, or maybe A-Rod/Manny discourse flares up and overwhelms all other discussion, but all of that totally crowding him out seems doubtful. I don’t know that Utley will make it in by 2027, but even if he’s only up to 50-60% by then, he’ll still have another six years to make it the rest of the way to 75%. <br /><br />Whether any of that will translate to guys even further down the ballot, like Bobby Abreu or Mark Buehrle or Andy Pettitte, I can’t say. Their vote percentages are much worse, and they don’t quite have as long as Utley does, so I’ll say it’s unlikely. But like I said, voters are going to have more room to work with, so I also won’t call it impossible just yet. <br /><br />But in the meantime, the next big Hall of Fame moment will be the ceremony in July, when <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leylaji99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Leyland</a> will join Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer in getting their Cooperstown plaques, and Billy Wagner and Ichiro Suzuki can start counting down until the next ballot cycle takes over.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-27389820278614933692024-01-23T01:29:00.004-05:002024-01-23T01:29:42.684-05:002024 Hall of Fame Announcement Day Preview<p></p>After weeks of speculation and ballot reveals, this Tuesday finally marks the culmination of Hall of Fame season: at 5 PM Central Time (in a presentation broadcasted on MLB.com and the MLB Network), we will learn who will be added to the hallowed halls of Cooperstown at this summer’s induction ceremony. <br /><br />Or, rather, who else will be added; we already know that longtime manager <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leylaji99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Leyland</a> will be there, <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/12/jim-leyland-hall-of-fame-2024-election.html">after he was elected by the Veterans Committee</a> back in December (not to mention broadcaster Joe Castiglione and writer Gerry Fraley, for the Ford C. Frick and BBWAA Career Excellence Awards, respectively). However, it’s looking like the BBWAA will be sending several players along as well. So, with under 24 hours to go, how are things shaping up?<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-fields{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:0 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 0 15px 0;-webkit-flex:1 0 100%;-ms-flex:1 0 100%;flex:1 0 100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-powered-by-convertkit-container{margin:0;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-submit{position:static;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] [data-style="clean"],.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] [data-style="clean"]{padding:10px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"],.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"]{margin-left:-5px;margin-right:-5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Well, for anyone who hasn’t been keeping up with <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF%2154244&authkey=!AGrU1OUsbz4WHyU">Ryan Thibodaux’s Ballot Tracker</a>: just last night, we learned of our 200th ballot, meaning we already know how likely just over half of the electorate has voted (there were <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2023.shtml#all_hof_BBWAA">389 votes for the 2023 election</a>, but that total fluctuates year-to-year). Those are the numbers that I’ll be working with for this piece; however, please note depending on what time you’re reading this, these numbers may already be outdated compared to what’s in the Tracker, since so many writers wait to release their votes until the morning of. I’m largely going to be speaking about trends in the voting anyway, so it won’t matter too much for the analysis. <br /><br />Right off the bat, there are two things about this evening’s announcement that I feel like I can say for certain. One is that multiple people will be getting the call this year, and the second is that ballot newcomer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a> will be leading the pack. The 3000-hit third baseman sits at 99% right now, well above the 75% of the vote that a player needs to hit to secure a plaque. <br /><br />I’m really not sure how anyone could object to his case, and I suppose I could look up the two “No” votes and interrogate their reasoning, but quite frankly, I only have so many hours in a day and they won’t make all that much of a difference. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Hall_of_Fame_Voting_Percentages">Here’s the all-time leaderboard in highest voting percentage</a> if you’d like to follow along at home; we know Beltre isn’t going to be the second unanimous choice in Hall history (after <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mariano Rivera</a> back in 2019), but 99% would put him at fourth-best ever, if it holds.<br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br />Second place right now goes to another first-time candidate, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a>. The former MVP catcher and three-time batting champ is sitting at 83.5% right now, and I think he’s another very deserving choice. I was a little concerned that voters might hesitate on his selection; for the longest time, the only catcher to get elected on the first ballot was <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Bench</a> way back in 1989 (he got 96.42% of the vote), and generally, the position was just undervalued by voters.<br /><br />There are some signs of change, though. <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodriiv01,rodrig008iva&search=Ivan+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br">Iván Rodríguez</a> finally became the second first-ballot catcher back in 2017 (albeit just barely, at 76.0% of the vote), and longtime snub <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmote01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ted Simmons</a> was finally inducted by the Veterans Committee back in 2020. Those, combined with Mauer’s early returns, make it look like the Minnesota hometown hero will become just the third first-ballot backstop. Technically, a very poor performance on the unrevealed ballots could do him in, but we don’t have any reason to suspect that just yet, so I’ll hold off on that hypothetical.<br /><br />Right behind Mauer is our first returning candidate, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a>. After finishing last year at 72.2%, just 11 votes shy of induction, Helton is currently at 82.0%. As a reference, <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1749612513988391069">through 200 ballots last year</a>, the longtime Rockie was at 79.0%, so this is a definite step forward; if he holds on to a flat 3% increase, he’s in! But there are a couple of other encouraging signs for Helton, on top of that; he’s flipped more voters to his cause than he’s lost (a net change of +2 right now), he’s done well with new voters (13 out of 16), and <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/2023-Hall-of-Fame-Preview-Projection-rolen-helton.html">as I found last year</a>, finishing over 60% typically inspires voters who keep their ballot private to flock to a candidate.<br /><br />However, I wanted to check on some other details, just to get a sense of historical precedence. Ryan Thibodaux has been tracking ballots for eleven years’ worth of elections*, and he does a pretty comprehensive job of breaking down how players did on ballots that were revealed both before and after the election. Almost every candidate drops from the final results, but the amounts they drop are not always equal. The highest a player has ever finished in a year where they fell short of induction was 76.4%, which <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martied01,martin006edg,martin008edg&search=Edgar+Martinez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br">Edgar Martínez</a> did back in 2018 (he would fall to 70.4% that year, and get inducted the following year).<br /><br /><i>*There are also a few earlier years in the tracker compiled by other users, but those were a little different and less complete, so I’m not including them for now.</i><br /><br />Coincidentally, that ballot cycle also brings us the inverse case: inductee <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trevor Hoffman</a> finished at 78.6% of the pre-results vote, the lowest a candidate has finished in an election where they still passed the 75% mark (in fact, Hoffman that year was one of the rare candidates who went up from there, finishing at 79.9%). That looks like a good sign for Mauer and Helton, but it also leaves us with about 2% of completely uncovered territory, from 76.4%-78.6%.<br /><br />And wouldn’t you know it, our fourth candidate, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a>, falls smack dab in that no-man’s land; right now, the former Astros closer is polling at 78.0% of the vote. After finishing 2023 at 68.1%, Wagner’s fate will be in flux right up until the announcement. Jason Sardell, a leading forecaster in Hall of Fame polling, <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/1749618204060610714">put him at an 18% chance of induction is his most recent results</a>, although that’s roughly where <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/1618018127308296192/photo/1">landed last year at this point</a> (Rolen, of course, made it in). Wagner is exactly 6% ahead of where he was <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1749612513988391069/photo/3">last year through 200 votes</a>, but adding 6% to his last result still leaves him less than 1% short of induction. He’s at a net change of +6 in flipped voters, plus he’s gone 14-for-16 with new voters, but that still puts him shy of the 27 votes he missed by last year. <br /><br />This will probably be the thing to watch the closest throughout the day, for anyone who needs a distraction. There were more than a dozen ballots added to the tracker over the course of the announcement day last year, so we could potentially see Wagner pick up or drop a few points along the way to 5 PM. <br /><br />But of course, the final verdict is going to heavily rely on all of the voters who don’t reveal prior to the announcement, a group that will likely add up to over two-fifths of voters. Some will share their ballots over the rest of the week, others will never show their work, but both groups are usually stingier than the ones who reveal their ballot in the lead-up to the announcement. The more of a buffer that Wagner can get now, the better. <br /><br />If there are any consolations here, it’s these: Wagner also reached 60% last year, and <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/2023-Hall-of-Fame-Preview-Projection-rolen-helton.html">like I said during the Helton section</a>, that has historically boded well for players’ chances the following year. And relievers have historically done a little better with the late and secret voters; there’s a reason that I noted that Hoffman in 2018 was one of the few cases who went up from pre-release numbers. Maybe Wagner will see less of a bump due to his lower save totals, but maybe not. If he does miss out this time, Wagner will get one more year on the BBWAA ballot before aging off, but I’m sure that <a href="https://twitter.com/BBisntBoring/status/1749411871348642169">he’d rather not have to go through yet another year of this</a>. I’m hoping he can pull it off this time around.<br /><br />After them, there will still be some things to keep an eye on. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a> is sitting right on the border, at 75.0%. As was noted earlier, that historically hasn’t been enough to get over the line (just since 2013, we’ve had four different players finish at 75.0% or better in the tracker but fall short in the final results), and you have to figure that a player with steroid ties isn’t going to be the one to change that. But I also never expected him to do this well in the first place, so who knows! I’m curious to see where he ultimately winds up, and if it will end up meaning anything once he starts hitting the Veterans Committee ballots. <br /><br />There are a few other promising players who aren’t going to get in this time, but who will nonetheless be worth watching. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a> is up to 70.5%, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=beltrca01,beltra003car&search=Carlos+Beltrán&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltrán</a> is at 66%, both of which are improvements over their 2023 results. And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-23_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a> is tracking at 40.0% in his first election. I’ll expand more on what those numbers could mean down the line once we have the full results, but for now, you should have everything you need to know heading into the final countdown. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-16803943826144120842024-01-10T01:44:00.001-05:002024-01-10T14:51:16.102-05:00Checking in on the Most Interesting Astros on the Hall of Fame Ballot<p><i>[<a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/1/10/24033394/astros-on-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-billy-wagner-carlos-beltran">This piece is also up over at The Crawfish Boxes</a>]</i><br /><br /><br />We just passed the two-week mark until the 2024 Hall of Fame results are relieved; the evening of January 23rd will have the usual results show airing at 5 PM Central Time on MLB.com/the MLB Network.<br /><br />Of course, for those who don’t want to go in blind, there are of course<a href="http://tracker.fyi/"> the yearly efforts of Ryan Thibodaux’s Ballot Tracker team</a> (available at tracker.fyi), where volunteers record and total writers’ ballots as they make them known. So far, they’ve amassed over 130, which works out to just over one-third of the expected total, and there are likely dozens more to come in our lead-up to the results.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2024/01/first-look-2024-baseball-hall-of-fame.html">I already released a longer, initial look last week at how those results were shaping up</a>, but this week I wanted to do a more focused update looking at two prominent former Astros on this ballot, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=beltrca01,beltra003car&search=Carlos+Beltrán&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltrán</a>. As it turns out, these two have some of the more interesting and nuanced cases, so if you want to know what to look for in the coming days, it might help to have more context.<br /><br />Let’s start with where they both stood coming into this year. For those not in the know, the basics of the Hall election are: roughly 400 current and former members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) will vote in this year’s election. If 75% of them vote for a player, they’re in. If a player gets 5% of the vote, they get to stick around for the election next year; otherwise, they’re off the 2025 ballot. Voters are capped at voting for ten players in a year, and players are capped at ten attempts on the BBWAA ballot before they get dropped (at which point the Veterans Committee can take a look at them, but that’s a whole other can of worms).<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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2023 ballots. Wagner, in his eighth election, reached a personal high mark with 68.1% of the vote, or just 27 votes shy of induction. He’ll have this year and (should he fall short) one more chance after that to pick those up. Beltrán, meanwhile, was in his first year on the ballot, and reached a respectable 46.5% of the vote.<br /><br />Also I’ll mostly be covering their Hall of Fame votes and chances of election here rather than their cases, but I just want to note that I think both are deserving picks. I<a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2019/12/is-billy-wagner-best-closer-not-in-hall.html"> laid out the case for Wagner several years ago</a>. I haven’t done anything that straightforward with Beltrán, but I also think his resume is much more overwhelming: a Gold Glove centerfielder with 435 homers, 565 doubles, 2725 hits, 312 steals (against only 49 time caught stealing!), a .279/.350/.486 batting line, a 119 OPS+… there’s a reason Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement has him as a 70-WAR player (a line that usually marks an obvious Hall selection). His struggles so far are pretty obviously backlash to his role in the 2017 sign stealing scandal.<br /><br />So, how are things shaping up for them in 2024? We’ll start with Wagner, since he’s polling ahead of Beltrán right now. Right now, he’s in fourth place on the ballot, behind newcomers <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrián Beltré</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a>, plus returning runner-up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a>. Back at the end of December, he crossed the 75% in the Ballot Tracker <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1740856154442670439/">for the first time since he became a candidate</a>. He’s held strong in the 60ish ballots revealed since then, even crossing the 80% mark for a stretch of time. However, he has seen a little bit of backsliding recently, dropping down to 78.7% just last night.<br /><br />Despite that bad news, he is still above where he was at this time last year, which is a promising sign. And what’s more, he’s actually won over votes: the tracker has documented seven 2023 voters who were “no”s on him last year but have changed their vote. On the whole, he’s at a net change of +5 in flips (he’s also lost two “yes”es), but on a crowded ballot like this year’s, that’s actually not bad; in fact, it’s third among players on the ballot (put a pin in that thought for now).<br /><br /><span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a><br /><br />If you go by the 27 votes he fell short last year, that means he’d only need to pick up 22 votes on the remaining 250 or so ballots. Except that there’s some extra good news here: Wagner has also gone 9-for-10 among new voters. That’s not as good as nine flips*, nor will we know exactly how much it helps until we learn how many voters there are this year, but it does mean that his path is a little less rough.<br /><br /><i>*If you’d like an example for why this is: consider a case of 2 votes, with 1 yes and 1 no. Adding a new yes vote just gets you to 2/3, while flipping the no would get you to 2/2. </i><br /><br />It will be difficult for Wagner to pick up the 20-ish converted votes he still needs from pre-announcement ballots; a net +27 just from early reveals would be a challenge to hit in a year with an empty ballot, but this year’s ballot is much more crowded than that thanks to the additions of Beltré, Mauer, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a> (among others). <br /><br />Thankfully, he doesn’t necessarily need to do that; just under half of Hall voters either wait until after the results to share their ballot, or never release it at all. The obvious downside there is that we won’t have any idea how those look until we already know the results. We generally know that they’ll be stingier than the voters who reveal their ballots early, and we generally know that those groups aren’t necessarily opposed to Wagner’s case; he reached 69.6% and 52.9% with late and private voters last year (compared to 72.3% with early public voters). If he can stay around 79% prior to the announcement, according to the calculator I built last year, he would only need to reach around 75% with late voters and 66% with private voters. <br /><br />That might seem extreme, but if you want a final ace-in-the-hole for Wagner, it’s that he passed 60% of the vote last year. Hall voters are actually <b>very </b>susceptible to momentum arguments, <b>especially </b>the ones who keep their ballots secret. <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/2023-Hall-of-Fame-Preview-Projection-rolen-helton.html">This is actually something I discovered last year</a> while writing about <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a>’s chances; hitting the 60% mark has, in recent memory, been an indicator of a big jump in private ballots, in a way that hitting, say, 50% isn’t. Sure enough, Rolen saw a big enough jump among late and (especially) private voters to get him over the line, following early returns that looked like they could go either way.<br /><br />I’m curious to see if that finding holds up this year, on a crowded ballot where one other candidate (Helton) will also be counting on that 60% bump, but I think the precedent seems encouraging. And worst case scenario, if he misses this year, it just gives him a layup induction next year (but I’ll wait to get into that until we know it’s happening).<br /><br /><br />So what about Carlos Beltrán? As mentioned, he was pretty far off from induction last year at 46.5%. But it was also pretty clear that he was being dinged for character clause-related reasons, and there’s been a lot of difficulty in predicting how those cases play out. The most recent example for most people is obviously going to be players tied to steroids, but even those have had a variety of outcomes, with some players (like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgwima01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mark McGwire</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sosasa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sammy Sosa</a>) stalling out hard, while others (like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Clemens</a>, and perhaps most bafflingly, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a>, who currently sits at 75.0% on his tenth and final ballot) continue climbing year after year.<br /><br />Of course, there are actually a few non-steroid cases to refer to as well, which might be more instructive here. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perryga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gaylord Perry</a> (inducted 1991) took three tries to get inducted largely due to his prominence as a spitballer. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenkife01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fergie Jenkins</a> (1991) took three tries as well, and I’ve seen some writers attribute that to his suspension for cocaine.* <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maricju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Juan Marichal</a> (1983) was another one that took three attempts, apparently due to anger over him hitting <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosebjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">John Roseboro</a> <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/marichal-roseboro-brawl-examined-c409390583">in the head with a bat during a brawl</a> (the two would later reconcile, and <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/john-roseboro/">Roseboro’s support helped lead to Marichal’s election</a>). The most recent case is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roberto Alomar</a> (2011), who narrowly missed on his first attempt as writers cited him spitting on umpire John Hirschbeck as a reason to wait on voting for him. Alomar would make it on his second ballot, jumping from under 74% to a full 90% in one year (although despite the induction, as it turns out, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-puts-roberto-alomar-on-ineligible-list">he still wasn’t a great guy</a>).<br /><br /><i>*I have no idea how that’s factored into the cases for players like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raineti01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tim Raines</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Paul Molitor</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dave Parker</a>, or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernake01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Keith Hernandez</a>. The first two obviously made it in, although Raines took fifteen tries and Molitor got just 85% on his first vote despite his 3319 hits. Parker stuck around for a full fifteen years plus a few Veterans Committee ballots, while Hernandez fell off after nine tries. But I also haven’t seen a ton of evidence linking any of them to a cocaine backlash. It might also be relevant that Jenkins pre-dates most of them by several years, and got a brunt of the reaction as a result.</i><br /><br />I saw some people speculating that Beltrán would get stuck in the same limbo that steroid players did after he failed to hit 50% last year (none of Perry, Jenkins, Marichal, or Alomar dropped that low), but that doesn’t seem to be the case so far. He’s in seventh place right now, but it’s a strong seventh, one that sees him trending at 64.7%. <br /><br />Not only that, but he’s far and away leading the pack in converted voters. 18 former “no”s have changed their vote to yes, giving him a net change of +12, both of which give him a big lead on the next-best performer in those fields, Gary Sheffield (9 pickups and no losses, likely due to the bump candidates get on their final ballot). Even Beltrán’s lost voters have promising signs; three of the six dropped him because their ballots were at their ten-person limit, meaning they should be easy pick-ups next year, once Beltré, Sheffield, and some combination of Helton, Mauer, and Wagner are cleared out. <br /><br />There’s a very real chance that Beltrán enters the 2025 ballot as the top returning candidate, and even his worst-case scenario at this point looks like “third place behind Wagner and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-10_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a>”. A 2025 Induction might be a big ask (although not totally out of the question), especially given that a few new candidates will likely be taking up some attention. But even then, it’s still just Beltrán’s third ballot, giving him plenty of time (and a few weaker classes) to build momentum. Even if he drops down into the 50%-60% range on the final results, I’d probably build my expectations going forward off of the non-steroid cases rather than the Bonds/Clemens purgatory. <br /><br /><br />That should cover the major details to keep in mind for these two over the next thirteen days. Right now, I’m positive on both cases, although there’s still a lot that we’ll learn as more ballots come out. And even if things go south for Wagner from this point, it still looks like the Astros will have some good news on the Cooperstown horizon.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-90956285332682693912024-01-01T23:41:00.003-05:002024-01-01T23:41:22.033-05:00A First Look at the 2024 Hall of Fame Results: Who Will Stand Out on the Crowded Ballot?We’ve finally reached 2024, meaning that the deadline for this year’s Hall of Fame voting has passed; voters’ ballots must be postmarked by December 31, 2023 to qualify for this year’s election. Of course, there’s nothing stopping writers from revealing their votes earlier, which is why we’ve been seeing results over at<a href="https://tracker.fyi/"> Ryan Thibodaux’s Ballot Tracker</a> trickle in since around Thanksgiving or so. <br /><br />In fact, we just hit 100 ballots (a little over a quarter of the total expected votes) before the calendar turned over, so why don’t we take a quick peek at where things stand.* Although the votes technically won’t be changing from here on, the results still won’t be revealed until January 23, which gives us just over three weeks for more ballots to come out and give us a fuller picture of where things stand (for reference, last year we ended at 198 pre-announcement ballots, so we’re about halfway there right now). <br /><br /><i>*And, depending on when this gets published/you’re reading it, <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1741568238969090339">here are the full results through 100 ballots</a>, so you can see what I was pulling from. At least one more ballot came out between the end of writing and publishing, but I’ll leave the numbers as is for now and make notes where it’s warranted. </i><br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />The first thing to note, for anyone who hasn’t looked at the ballot yet, is that we’re dealing with a more crowded ballot than last year. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a> was inducted in 2023 and future Veterans Committee selection <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kentje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jeff Kent</a> aged off the ballot following his tenth attempt, freeing up two spaces; however, this year’s freshman class includes standouts <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrián Beltré</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a>. <br /><br />And it’s not just that there are three players replacing two on the ballot that will make votes tighter to come by. Beltré is polling about 20% higher than Rolen, which means he will soak up about 100 more votes than Rolen did last year. And even ignoring Utley (who’s matching Kent pretty well so far) and Mauer (who’s polling very competitively on top of them, but more on that in a minute), we’ve also got a few other names down-ballot who are picking up some nominal support (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Wright</a> looks like he might cross 5%, plus <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bartolo Colón</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Holliday</a> have already gotten votes so far, and I wouldn’t be shocked if <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=bautijo02,bautijo01&search=José+Bautista&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Bautista</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gonzaad01,gonzal014adr,gonzal013adr,gonzal011adr,gonzal006adr&search=Adrián+González&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrián González</a>, or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-026jos,reyes-023jos&search=Jose+Reyes&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Reyes</a> get a vote or two). <br /><br /> Of course, the Hall ballot is also pretty momentum-based, and every returning candidate who passed the 40% mark last year has <i>also </i>seen their vote percentages increase so far (more on the breakdown there shortly). We had a little bit of slack to work with, as the average players-per-ballot count in 2023 was on the lower end of our recent ballots. However, we are still working with a 10 player per ballot cap that’s going to aggressively limit how big that number can get, so in the short term, you might see some names at the bottom start to get squeezed out to make room for those other names. <br /><br />We’ll work our way there eventually. For now, though, let’s take it from the top (non-2024 ballot stats will mostly be from Baseball-Reference). For a little bit there, it looked like Adrián Beltré might be threatening to become the Hall’s second unanimous selection (after <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mariano Rivera</a>’s 2019 election); however, that mark remains pretty difficult to match, and he’s now sitting at 98%. Not that it really matters much. With 3166 hits, 477 homers, and a bevy of field awards, Beltré is poised to easily sail past the 75% needed, and we’re basically looking at which specific hyper-elite group he lands in: the nineteen-name ring of 95% or higher, the fifteen players who topped 96%, the baker’s dozen of 97%+, the octet of 98%+, or the trio of 99%+. I don’t expect him to drop much below that, but I guess we also can’t rule it out. <br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br /><br />In second place, we have fellow newcomer Joe Mauer, which is actually a bit of a change; he was in third as recently as a few days after Christmas, but a hot streak of recent reveals has helped him pull ahead and land at 83%.* I think Mauer is an easy call for the Hall of Fame, one of the best offensive backstops in history and clearly better than half of the catchers already in Cooperstown, and I said as much <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2020/02/future-hall-of-fame-extra-catcher-standards.html">back when I looked at catcher standards four years ago</a> (it’s not like Mauer’s numbers have changed since then). <br /><br /><i>*Ballot #101 put the two of them back into a tie. </i><br /><br />But as I also noted in that piece, voters have historically been stingy with catchers; only two have made it in first ballot, although maybe it’s a sign of changing attitudes that one of those was Iván Rodríguez, the most recent catcher-inductee to reach the BBWAA ballot. I wouldn’t be shocked if the private voters are cold enough on Mauer that he drops below 75%, as they usually are the slowest to change. But I think there are enough traditional things to like about Mauer’s case that he can survive those potential skeptics, and that even if we do see that worst-case scenario, he finishes close enough this time that he walks in for the 2025 election. <br /><br />To reach second place, Mauer had to leap past returning leader of the backlog <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a>, who finished 11 votes shy of election last time. That gap seems very manageable, and at 82%, he’s both over the 75% threshold and <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1741564574820892701">ahead of where he was through 100 ballots last year</a>. However, there are some reasons for concern here. He’s at a net change of +0 votes, having converted three voters to his cause while at the same time losing three,* again likely due to the fuller ballot; and Jason Sardell’s <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/1741259210870931966">most recent forecast</a> (which are usually very solid) puts him at a median result of 74%. It basically could go either way, a very similar situation to where Scott Rolen found himself last year leading up to the announcement. <br /><br /><i>*Flips like that are the biggest thing for a player’s cause, since they essentially change a -1 to a +1, but it’s also worth mentioning that Helton has gone 8 for 9 with new and returning voters. He can’t just pick up all 11 new votes there, since they also change the denominator that we’re working with, so he’ll either need a few flips to go along with it or more than 11 new voters in his corner, but it is still a good sign. </i><br /><br />Of course, Rolen <i><b>was </b></i>inducted last year, which can serve as a good sign for Helton this time. And there’s another encouraging thing in Helton’s results: last year, he finally crossed the 60% line. <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/2023-Hall-of-Fame-Preview-Projection-rolen-helton.html">As I found last year</a>, that has historically been a sign for the stingier voting groups, the Late Public Reveals and the Private Ballots, to switch. Unfortunately, it’s not really something we can test until <i>after </i>the results, but Rolen can provide an instructive example. He finished at 67.2% and 34.2% respectively with those groups in 2022, one of the more dire results for a serious candidate in recent memory, but it <i>did </i>get him to 69.8% overall. And sure enough, last year, he shot up to 80.9% and 57.4% with those groups, which was enough to get him over the line to 76.3%. <br /><br />Helton also crossed the 60% line last year (72.2%), and along the way, he finished at 67.0% with Post-Result Reveals and 61.8% with Private Voters. He might not see as big of an improvement as Rolen did, whether because of the deeper ballots this time or because he has less room to grow, but it does at least mean that those groups are already amenable to him. Rolen was at 80.4% on the Ballot Tracker leading into the results, so we’d probably want to see Helton at least match that this time around to be safe, especially given the stiffer competition. But at least so far, he’s on pace. <br /><br />So what does that mean for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a>? The closer also passed that 60% mark last year, finishing at 68.1% and falling just 27 votes shy of induction. At the moment, he makes for our fourth candidate currently trending above the 75% Induction Line, sitting at 79%, and unlike Helton, Wagner actually has a net increase in his votes already (he’s converted 5 of 2023’s “no” votes to “yes”es, while only losing 2 of his existing “yes” votes*). And like with Helton, there’s still obvious room for growth in the back-half, with Wagner pulling 69.6% with Late Reveal Voters and 52.9% with Private Voters last year (not to mention that latter group has historically gone for candidates with big Save totals, which could help Wagner out). If nothing else, it’s not difficult to imagine Wagner finding the remaining 24 conversions that he needs in that set. <br /> <br /><i> *And like with Helton, Wagner is 8 for 9 so far with new voters, which is also encouraging. Also, Ballot #101 got him one more no-to-yes voter, so only 23-ish more to go. </i><br /><br />The problem once again becomes the crowded ballot: these sets have <i>also </i>historically been the ones with the smallest ballots, limiting themselves even beyond the hard 10-player cap. Will this group be able to find votes for all four of these players in one year? And if they aren’t, who will actually be the one losing out? <br /><br />Helton was so close to induction that it’s hard to imagine him falling short again, but it is still possible; a public net gain in voters would go a long way in assuaging fears here. Mauer is polling the best of the non-Beltré three so far, but we have no data on how these two groups will like him, and these types of voters have historically been at least part of the reason we only have two first-ballot catchers. And as mentioned, this group of voters has traditionally liked saves and players who are polling above 60%, plus they’ve had time to warm up to Wagner. But he is definitely in the weakest position here, both in his current polling and his stats. Maybe he flips some voters, but still winds up in a position similar to Helton last year, five to ten votes short. <br /><br />Could we have a four-person induction class from the BBWAA ballot, though? Yeah, I actually think it’s possible. Historically, that kind of things has been rare, happening mainly early in the Hall’s history and when there was serious catch-up to do, but it’s been getting more common as of late. After only seeing it happen in 1936, 1939 (two of the first four elections), 1947, and 1955 (two elections from when the rules were relatively in flux), we’ve suddenly witnessed it happen in all of 2015, 2018, and 2019. With a recent frequency like that, I wouldn’t say it’s a given, but I also wouldn’t inherently rule it out. <br /><br />I don’t have a hard model to work from, but right now, I’d say that <b><i>a</i></b> three-person class is more likely than a four-person class, but the four-person class is more likely than <b><i>any specific</i></b> three-person combination we might see. If you wanted some percentages on that just for show, I’d say maybe… a 40% chance of “Beltré-Helton-Mauer”, a 10% chance of “Beltré-Helton-Wagner”, and a 45% chance of “All Four” (plus 5% saved for “Anything Else”, whether that’s “Only Beltré-Helton”, “Only Beltré-Mauer”, “Somehow Beltré- Mauer-Wagner”, or “Freak <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a> Incidents”)? That seems reasonable enough for a rough estimate.* <br /><br /><i>*I wanted to keep it to round-ish numbers here since it’s mostly for demonstration, but if you wanted to be more specific, I’d probably say “Anything Else” is too low. I’d make up for it by taking percents from all of the other three outcomes, but I’d definitely take more heavily from the “Beltré-Helton-Wagner” set than the other two. </i><br /><br />Ultimately, this kind of only matters in the abstract; all of these four are going into the Hall of Fame in the next two years (barring major unforeseen events). Whoever misses this time will get an easy shot in 2025, with the most likely miss (Wagner) even getting an extra boost next time since it will be his tenth and final ballot. But what about the rest of the ballot, where that isn’t the case? How are they all looking? <br /><br />Gary Sheffield leads the down-ballot set, sitting at 73%. I remain baffled (not necessarily negatively) at his progress the last few years, far surpassing what any other PED-linked player has achieved in Hall voting. He’s almost certainly going to fall short once again, in his tenth and final try on the BBWAA side of things, but he very well might match <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a>
and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Clemens</a> on their final ballots despite obviously not being on their level stats-wise. And while I’m skeptical of his chances on a future Veterans Committee ballot, I’m curious to see if they also handle his case any differently. <br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=beltrca01,beltra003car&search=Carlos+Beltrán&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltrán</a>, who finished nearly 12 points behind <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a> last year at 46.5%, has jumped ahead of him to 65%. <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/scott-rolen-2023-hall-of-fame-election.html">As I mentioned in my wrap-up last year</a>, it was clear that voters were knocking Beltrán in his ballot debut for his role in the sign-stealing scandal, but it wasn’t yet clear if that would just be a one-year issue that voters would move on from, or something that could become an ongoing issue. Well, this year has cleared that up: Beltrán leads all returning candidates in conversions, sitting at +9 net votes (13 gains, 4 losses) through 100 voters. <br /><br />And not only that, but there’s some obvious room for further improvement there; 2 of his 4 drops thus far have been due to ballot space, rather than the voters changing their minds.* It’s probably too soon to start slotting him in for a 2025 Induction just yet, but there’s a very real chance he enters the weaker 2025 ballot as the top returning candidate (if his lead over Jones holds, and all four of the top vote-getters are inducted this time), and things could snowball quickly from there. Definitely keep an eye on where he finishes this time. <br /><br /><i>*I’m not going to re-write this whole article to change every number, but I will note that while editing, the 101st ballot was revealed, taking Beltrán to +10 overall. He’s obviously got some momentum here. </i><br /><br />Meanwhile, Andruw Jones, at 64%, has not been as fortunate. He’s really where we start to see the ballot squeeze hit, sitting at a net -2 (+1/-3) and making him one of the most frequently dropped candidates on the ballot.* Like Beltrán, signs indicate that this is largely temporary, and he still has three more ballots after this one, so he’s by no means out of the running for Cooperstown, but things will probably remain relatively stagnant for now. If he can inch above 60% this time (he finished at 58.1% last year), it would be a win, and put him in a good position for next year. <br /><br /> <i>*Again, not re-writing everything, but Ballot #101 brought him back up to a -1 overall; I expect he’ll keep hovering in this range like this the rest of the way. So things could still be better here, but it’s also obvious it’s more “stagnant” than “steady loss”. </i><br /><br />That ballot jam has been even rougher for those below the 50% mark, who don’t have the things going for them that Jones does. Álex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez aren’t seeing support in the way Sheffield is. Even if I think <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Abreu</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pettian01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2024-01-01_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andy Pettitte</a> are solid choices for the Hall, they’re still clearly on the weaker end of the candidates, and as a result they’ve been the ones hardest hit in terms of net voters. <br /><br />Really, the only interesting news in the “Under 50%” Group at the moment is Chase Utley, who’s polling at 44% so far in his ballot debut. That’s honestly a lot better than I expected he would fare; <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2018/07/chase-utleys-retirement-hall-of-fame-cooperstown-case.html">I’ve thought he’s deserving of induction</a>, but he doesn’t look much like what BBWAA voters have traditionally wanted in a candidate, so I expected him to get totally ignored. Maybe the electorate really is changing.* At this level of support, he’s basically never going to be in risk of falling off the ballot, and between the clearing at the top of the ballot over the next two years, the upcoming weaker rookie classes, and an Andruw Jones induction freeing up resources to make Utley the new “cause célèbre” of the analytical set, he could be standing on the stage before the end of the decade. <br /><br /><i>*If you went and re-read that piece I just linked to, I mentioned back in 2018 that Rolen’s poor performance seemed like a bad sign for Utley. But obviously, things turned around quickly there! </i><br /><br />But there are a lot of contingencies there, and so little set in stone, so we’ll just have to keep that all in mind once we have the full results. For now, the main storylines to watch over the next three weeks will be that cluster of Joe Mauer, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner; if everything breaks right, we could have a crowded stage in Cooperstown this July. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-77688581305088358222023-12-04T02:44:00.000-05:002023-12-04T02:44:00.541-05:00Jim Leyland Inducted to the Hall of Fame, Plus Breaking Down the Rest of the Veterans Committee Results!We officially have our first Hall of Famer for the 2024 Election: manager <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leylaji99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Leyland</a>, who <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/hall-of-fame-contemporary-era-ballot-2023">received 15 out of 16 votes from this year’s iteration of the Veterans Committee</a>. Fellow manager <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinielo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lou Piniella</a> fell one vote shy of joining him, while executive candidate and general renaissance man <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=whitebi04,whitebi03,whitebi02,whitebi01&search=Bill+White&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bill White</a> missed by two votes.<br /><br />Leyland is the first manager elected to Cooperstown in a decade, and he’s a very deserving choice. His 1769 wins are seventeenth all-time (most of those ahead of him are enshrined), he was the head of the Marlins when they won the World Series in 1997, his three total pennants ties him for twenty-fifth all-time (again, behind mostly other inductees, and tied with several more), he’s currently the only manager to win both a World Series and a World Baseball Classic (2017), and he even wound up winning three Manager of the Year awards. (All stats from Baseball-Reference, by the way.)<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Really, the biggest knock against him was relatively low win rate for his career, but a lot of that could be chalked up to bad luck; getting stuck with the 1998 Marlins after their post-Championship firesale alone dropped his winning percentage from .514 to .508. If you want to go even further, you could also point out how long he stuck with the Pirates into the start of their firesale era, sticking around for four seasons after their 1992 NLCS upset even as the team shedded talent with no sign of replacing it (if you want to be extra-generous and chop off the last two of those Pittsburgh seasons, he reaches a .523 rate). Either way, when not being shoved into hopeless situations, it was clear that Leyland was talented as a manager, and sometimes he could even make some of the seemingly-hopeless situations work out (like the 2006 Tigers reaching the World Series, or those 1992 Pirates).<br /><br />If you missed it, <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/12/2024-hall-of-fame-veterans-committee-ballot-predictions.html">I put up a preview of this vote a few days ago</a>, and I figured it would be a good time to revisit it while comparing the results.<br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br /><b><u>The Expected Good News</u></b><br /><br />I predicted that the sixteen-person committee would love Leyland; I called him the strongest of the four manager choices, and he was the only one to make both my hypothetical ballot and my predicted slate of inductees. Sometimes predicting first-year candidates can be tricky, since the strongest evidence for these things is usually past results and comparable players, neither of which we really had. But sure enough, he got nearly-unanimous support. There’s really not much more to say than it’s always nice to see a deserving candidate cruise in on the first try, and even better when it means the VC didn’t totally fumble the election.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>The Pleasant Surprise</u></b><br /><br />The VC did not go for Joe West’s candidacy very much. I thought for sure that they would be all-in for the all-time leader in Games Umpired, despite how often he seemed to drag focus to himself (which, like I said in my first article, strikes me as the antithesis of the role), but it didn’t happen, and West landed below the 5 vote reporting margin. Like I said, guessing on first-time nominees can be tough, and extra so since umpires feel pretty underrepresented in Cooperstown, limiting our comparisons even further. I feel a little bad reporting on someone <i>not </i>getting in this way, but it also doesn’t feel terribly undeserved based on West’s history, and his potential votes went to far better causes.<br /><br /><br /><b><br /><u>The Expected Bad News</u></b><br /><br />I mentioned, like I do almost every VC election, that the vote limit would make things tough, and that once again proved to be true. Voters were limited to 3 votes each, meaning there were 48 total to go around, and each candidate needed 12 for induction. What we got was:<br /><br />15 - Jim Leyland<br />11 - Lou Piniella<br />10 - Bill White<br />(Less than 5 for the other five candidates).<br /><br />Add the confirmed totals up and you’ll see 36 of our 48 votes accounted for. If you want, you can assume 4 votes going to whoever our unknown fourth-place finisher is (based on the 5-vote threshold they used), which would leave just 8 votes going to the other half of the ballot (assuming every voter used all three votes). <br /><br />That actually feels pretty harsh, given how solid some of these candidates are and how desperately the Hall could use most of them (but <i>especially </i>the executives and umpires; as I mentioned in my first piece, there are only 10 umpires inducted, and only 6 executives who topped out as General Managers, rather than owners or league presidents/commissioners). It’s certainly a far cry <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/12/2022-hall-of-fame-election-veterans-committee.html">from two years ago</a>, when the Golden Days committee managed to swing a 10-candidate, 4-vote ballot into four (nearly five) inductees. I suppose it’s closer to <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/12/2023-hall-of-fame-election-fred-mcgriff-veterans-committee.html">last year</a>, when <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgrifr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fred McGriff</a> went in and nobody else was close, although that ballot was loaded with controversial steroid era figures. I’m not sure what the excuse here is. <br /><br />The narrow misses for Lou Piniella and Bill White are especially confusing; like, I could imagine <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allendi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dick Allen</a> missing by one vote two years ago, because he was a prickly personality and there was zero room for error in that vote. Bill White clearly doesn’t have that issue; my guess would be that based on his past results,* several candidates held off to use their votes elsewhere? Theoretically, the discussion prior to the voting should give voters an idea of the candidate building the most support, but maybe that’s not how it works in practice.<br /><br /><i>*<a href="http://www.darowski.com/vets/appearances.html">Based on Adam Darowski and Graham Chapman’s site</a> tracking Veterans Committee ballots, this is the fourth time White has appeared, and the first time since 2010; he had never topped 30% of the vote until today.</i><br /><br />The Piniella miss is even more baffling. As I noted in my preview, I wasn’t sure that Piniella was the second-best choice on this ballot, but heading into it, the voters sure seemed to think he was; he had finished one vote shy last time, after all. It’s weird to see a case like that stall out, and I’m not sure I have an explanation for it? Did Piniella irritate a lot of people on the committee? Was it just other voters in my position, who thought their slots were better served elsewhere? Was no one willing to be that last mover for him, or did they not even realize he was that close. I suppose we won’t know unless someone in the process comes forward to explain in greater detail, but that hasn’t ever happened before.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>Expecting the Next News?</u></b><br /><br />So, what are the future ramifications from this ballot? Well, the good news is that none of these men will need to wait a long time until their next shot. The next ballot focusing on non-players from the modern era should meet in 3 years, or December 2026 (for the 2027 Ceremony; that will also be the one where <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a> becomes eligible, if you’re trying to line it up with the BBWAA ballot). This is especially crucial because by that year, Piniella and White will be <i>83 and 92</i>, respectively. Electing them on their first posthumous ballot would be extraordinarily on-brand for the Hall of Fame, and I <b>really </b>hope it doesn’t come to that. <br /><br />Of course, even that might prove difficult. Remember how crowded this ballot was? Well, the next one will almost certainly be adding <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerdu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dusty Baker</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Terry Francona</a>, which sure sounds like two first-ballot managerial selections to me. And if even one of them are unanimous, that would mean it would be mathematically impossible for both Bill White and Lou Piniella to make it alongside them; our only hope is that they go back to a ten-person, four-vote ballot (or something like that). <br /><br />Really, even that might not be enough if the voters don’t coordinate their votes properly. It would take a major shakeup, like everyone getting distracted and jumping some other candidate ahead of both of them,* but that’s clearly not out of the question for this group (just look at White’s surprising jump this year). And of course, this is just looking at the candidates that we <i>know </i>could appear. If we have another big name appear on the ballot (just to spitball ideas, say, if Dave Dombrowski or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bruce Bochy</a> retires? Or Theo Epstein gets included?), then this moves from a possibility to a near-certainty. <br /><br /><i>*Or something like the nominating committee outright forgetting to include them for no stated reason, which… seems unlikely, but sadly not outright impossible.</i><br /><br />And even if it doesn’t happen, then we’re still basically looking at the most likely outcome for 2030, aka the next time White and Piniella will both be up for election. And while we’re thinking ahead to those elections, it’s maybe worth observing that most of those selections (outside of the very-hypothetical Dombrowski/Epstein cases) won’t actually change the wildly underrepresented GM (six inductees) or Umpire (ten inductees) classes in Cooperstown,* which was supposed to be a major reason for making this special non-player ballot in the first place! I thought Hank Peters was a solid candidate on this ballot, and I don’t even know if we can fit him in on these upcoming ballots, let alone any number of other GMs from the back half of the 20th century who might have also gotten overlooked.<br /><br /><i>*And this isn’t even getting into the idea of reviving the Pioneer class for guys like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floodcu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Curt Flood</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy John</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=jamesbi02,jamesbi01&search=Bill+James&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-04_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bill James</a>, which mostly remains just a pipe dream on my end.</i><br /><br />For as dire as this all sounds… the Hall of Fame has adjusted their rules on the fly before, often with less than zero warning. So maybe this will get resolved on its own. But as long as the problem is active, I’m going to keep beating this drum: stop making these small ballots with extremely low vote caps, and maybe try to have a manager <b>and </b>a player election in the same year, so we don’t need to go three years between seeing some of these names again. This is especially vital while some of these men are still alive, albeit up there in age! It would be amazing if they could get inducted <b><i>while they’re actually alive to enjoy it! </i></b><br /><br />But to return to the positive, at least we know Jim Leyland will get to bask in his success next summer, and I expect there will be several people up there on stage with him. Stay tuned as we turn our attention here to the upcoming BBWAA ballot!
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.formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br />Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-2958523443202403302023-12-02T02:11:00.006-05:002023-12-04T02:42:11.204-05:00Hall of Fame Season Kicks Off This Weekend with the 2024 Veterans Committee Ballot!This weekend, the Winter Meetings will take place, and with it will come the first big moment of Hall of Fame discussion season: the Veterans Committee vote. As per usual, the sixteen voters will come together, discuss the candidates, cast their ballots, and announce anyone who receives 75% of the vote as the first inductees of 2024.<br /><br />And there will be something extra to this year’s process: back in April 2022, <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/04/veterans-committee-new-rules-2022.html">the Hall changed their rules on the Veterans Committee process once again</a> (for reasons that were really never clarified, but whatever). The 2024 Ballot will mark the first instance of the big change from those announcements, the non-player ballot. Yes, that’s right, all eight of this year’s nominees are managers, umpires, or executives: we have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leylaji99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinielo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lou Piniella</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gastoci01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cito Gaston</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsda02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Davey Johnson</a> from the first group; Joe West and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/montaed01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ed Montague</a> from the second; and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=whitebi04,whitebi03,whitebi02,whitebi01&search=Bill+White&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bill White</a> and Hank Peters from the third. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />If you went back and read that piece I wrote at the time, I feel like I was kind of harsh on the rule change. I still think there’s a lot of dumb things about it, but I’ve softened a little on the idea of a special ballot for non-players. In all honesty, it’s probably been necessary for a little bit, and this might help to rectify that, not to mention that the original method of making these candidates compete directly against players for spots in the Hall was just really weird on a conceptual level. I do still think it’s dumb that they couldn’t do this ballot <i><b>in the same year</b></i> as a separate player ballot, but whatever, small steps are always necessary when discussing the Hall. We’ll take it for now. <br /><br />With managers and especially umpires and executives, we don’t always have the most objective or statistical evidence, unlike how player stats have been quantified here and back again. Even still, I don’t think it’s unsupported to say that these categories have been a little too ignored by the Hall. At this moment, we have just 22 managers in the Hall, with the earliest one (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hanlone01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ned Hanlon</a>) having started way back in 1889; so we have those 22 managers covering 134 seasons of baseball history. That feels maybe a little light? <br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br />But at least there are some mitigating factors there, like the long careers of the most successful managers (even this year’s candidates are largely guys who started in the role back in the 1980s and early 90s, so the span of time the Hall covers is “really” probably only 100 years). Also, we have two more obvious inductees on the immediate horizon (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerdu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dusty Baker</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Terry Francona</a>), plus I have a strong feeling one or two of this year’s nominees make it (but more on that in a bit). There are much fewer extenuating circumstances for the other half of the ballot. Only ten umpires in history have made it to the Hall. One the one hand, arguably the role shouldn’t be one seeking out focus… but if we <i>are</i> going to find some of them Hall worthy (which we seem to have), that total definitely seems fairly light. <br /><br />Executives are an even more extreme case, depending on how you look at it. The Executive/Pioneer category has 40 elected members at the moment, but it is a very broad category. Owners make up the bulk of the group, with five more primarily being Commissioners* and another six having served as either the American League President or National League President, back when those roles meant something.<br /><br /><i>*This may not seem too extreme on its face, but it’s worth noting that there have only been <b>ten</b> Commissioners, counting Rob Manfred. You basically get a free induction to Cooperstown for serving in the role, barring a disaster; the four to not make it right now are Bart Giamatti (who died after one season in the role), Pete Uberroth (who was let go after five years for ring-leading a major collusion scheme against players that got the owners in legal hot water), Fay Vincent (who was overthrown by team owners after three seasons for being critical of their stances on things like the owners’ collusion scheme), and William Eckert (who was selected largely being a respectable blank slate as a former general in the 1940s and ‘50s, but who was notably detached from baseball on the whole, and lasted just three rough seasons as a result).</i><br /><br />Meanwhile, there are just <i><b>six </b></i>executives who made it to Cooperstown while serving only as general managers: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rickebr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Branch Rickey</a>, Larry MacPhail, Ed Barrow, George Weiss, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gillipa99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pat Gillick</a>, and John Schuerholz. Granted, a lot of early managers or owners would serve a role similar to GMs, but that also largely hasn’t been the case for, what, sixty or seventy years? Maybe more? If you include GMs who would also spend time as league presidents, you can add Warren Giles and Lee MacPhail, but still… this role just seems criminally underrated by Hall voters, just in comparison to its importance. <br /><br />So, with all of that acknowledged, this ballot does feel kind of important! So, what do the cases for these candidates look like, and how do I think the voters will see them? I’ll look at the ballot in two halves.<br /><br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">The Managers: Cito Gaston, Davey Johnson, Jim Leyland, and Lou Piniella </h4>These are the guys with actual numbers to discuss, plus the VC has generally been more willing to consider managers than other roles, so arguably it makes more sense to group them together. <br /><br />Two of them, Piniella and Johnson, have appeared on these ballots before; Johnson over a half-dozen times, Piniella just twice, overlapping with Johnson both times (in 2017 and 2019). I actually covered them both times (<a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2016/12/hall-of-fame-2017-veterans-committee-managers.html">here’s my 2017 recap</a>, and <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2018/11/14/18094714/breaking-down-this-years-veterans-committee-ballot-for-cooperstown">here’s my 2019 one</a>), and honestly I don’t know that I have much to add. Both of them are worthy candidates without being overwhelming choices, with just 1 World Series and no other pennants. They both were successful across multiple teams though, and they each picked up a few Manager of the Year awards (3 for Lou, 2 for Davey), Lou won a lot of games (1835, seventeenth all-time and behind basically just Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers*) but Davey was better on a rate basis (301 games above .500, seventeenth all-time and basically just behind Hall of Famers and Future Hall of Famers). Both were colorful characters in the game. If you want extra credit, Johnson had a solid playing career, while Piniella had a 116-win season to point to (and his own decent playing career). You can go back and re-read those older pieces for more stats and trivia if you want.<br /><br /><i>*And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauchge01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gene Mauch</a>, who won 1902 games while actually carrying a losing record.</i><br /><br />Let’s instead talk about the other two candidates, since they’re both making their first ballot appearance. Jim Leyland is right behind Lou Piniella in the wins column, at 1769-1728.* It’s also worth noting that, while he only matches Lou and Davey with one World Series title (the 1997 Marlins), he adds two more pennants to that (with the 2006 and 2012 Tigers). And while it’s not a World Series, I think Leyland deserves some extra credit for managing Team USA to its only World Baseball Classic title to date, back in 2017. <br /><br /><i>*That makes for a rough winning percentage, but keep in mind the Marlins followed up that 1997 title with their historic fire sale that saw them ship off over half the winning roster in a single winter, landing at 54-108 the next season. Leyland would leave after 1998; take that one disaster season out, and his career winning percentage rises from .506 all the way to .514. And this isn’t even getting into his misfortune of being at the helm of the Pirates right as they started their multi-decade fire sale, back from 1993 to 1996 (although cutting out multiple slowly sinking seasons like that feels harder to justify than the sudden, one-year implosion in Miami).</i><br /><br />Cito Gaston has an advantage on the other three managers here, in that he actually has two World Series titles (from the 1992 and 1993 Blue Jays), although historically, that still hasn’t been a guarantee of induction (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/houkra01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ralph Houk</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murtada01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Danny Murtaugh</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=kellyto01,kelly-000tom&search=Tom+Kelly&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tom Kelly</a> all fall into that category just in the expansion era, as have several early deadball-era and Negro League managers who have gone overlooked on VC ballots). Gaston also has a solid .516 winning percentage off a 894-837 record, but that’s a little light on games managed (1731, 77th all-time). <br /><br />Gaston also deserves some credit as a trailblazer, as just the fourth Black manager in AL/NL history (and just the second one to manage a full season, after <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinfr02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Frank Robinson</a>), and it’s also not hard to wonder if that status might have played into his relatively short career in the dugout, in a number of ways. <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-candidate-cito-gaston/">Jay Jaffe’s rundown of his candidacy goes more in-depth with the history there</a>, and I think it’s a good read (as is the rest of his series on the candidates, as always). That aside, his candidacy largely does come down to those two titles and his trailblazer status; there aren’t many other extra credit points to note here, no awards, no success across multiple teams or eras, not even another playoff appearance in his final six seasons.<br /><br />I think my verdict here is that Jim Leyland is the best of the bunch, and I would probably vote for him before the others. I’m also fine with all of Gaston, Johnson, and Piniella, but none of them particularly stands out above the rest, and that complicates things <i>a ton</i>. Because you see, the Veterans Committee ballot is perpetually in a state of ballot crunch, with not enough votes to go around (I’ve talked about it <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/12/2023-hall-of-fame-election-fred-mcgriff-veterans-committee.html">so</a> <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/12/2022-hall-of-fame-election-veterans-committee.html">many</a> <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2016/12/hall-of-fame-2017-veterans-committee-managers.html">times</a>, to just scratch the surface). This year will be no different, with each voter getting just three spots to use on their ballot. So even <i>if </i>you decide to not use any of your votes this time on Executives or Umpires (that’s half the ballot, and arguably the half that needs those votes more), you’re <i>still </i>going to have to make a hard cut here. <br /><br />I think Leyland is going to do pretty well here, between his slightly stronger case and his standing among his peers, although it can be difficult to peg new debuts to an exact number. Piniella is the other big beneficiary here; in his two elections so far, he’s gone from 7 votes to 11, literally one shy of induction. VC Voters just really seem to like him. I’m going to hold off on hard predictions until the end of this piece, but I will say that I don’t know that Gaston or Johnson (who literally finished below the reporting threshold on that same 2019 ballot) has a strong argument for why they’d finish ahead of him this year.<br /><br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">The Non-Managers: Ed Montague, Hank Peters, Joe West, and Bill White <br /></h4>The lack of numbers means this section will probably be shorter. I have no idea how to measure umpires, and neither West nor Montague has shown up on a ballot before, so there’s no history here to go off of. Bill West is the all-time leader in games umpired, with 5460. But Montague is no slouch himself, with 4369 (thirteenth all-time), and even setting that aside, that’s clearly not some overwhelming factor in umpire election, as only four of the twelve umps ahead of him are enshrined (although West and fourth-place <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisge03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gerry Davis</a> only just retired after 2021). <br /><br />The old adage is that the best umps are the ones that you forget are even there, which pushes me towards Montague over West, who seemed to take every opportunity to make himself known. But… that sort of thing is probably going to serve West well here, making him a very notable figure, not to mention all of the late-career publicity he sought through things like interviews, profiles, and so on. What can I say, his publicist did a pretty good job here (no joke, <a href="https://deadspin.com/renaissance-man-joe-west-umpire-singer-attention-who-5549142">he did actually have a publicist</a>, a fact that is not making me feel any different about my initial judgment on whether he deserves induction). <br /><br />That just leaves the two executives. We’ll start with the more traditional case of the two, which feels a little strange since the candidate topped out at General Manager, a role we already mentioned is pretty uncommon for inductees. Hank Peters served as the GM for three different teams, the Kansas City Athletics (in 1965, after years of running their scouting), the Baltimore Orioles (from 1975 to 1987), and the Cleveland Indians (from 1987 to 1991). In addition to leading scouting and other player development things several times in between, he also had a few years as the executive in charge of Minor League baseball, and his run there is generally considered a pretty big success.<br /><br />That Orioles run obviously represents the bulk of his Hall case, a successful extension of the 1960s and ‘70s run that saw the drafting and debut of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ripkeca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cal Ripken Jr.</a>, as well as the acquisition of several other stars. The team won a World Series and a second pennant under his watch. His runs outside of Baltimore may seem like duds, but there are some major asterisks there. His short time leading the A’s (which ultimately ended after several clashes with volatile owner Charles Finley) served as an extension of his successful years of leading scouting and player development, and the total scope saw him bring in a lot of pieces (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Catfish Hunter</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fingero01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rollie Fingers</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/campabe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bert Campaneris</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bandosa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sal Bando</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tenacge01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gene Tenace</a>…) that would lead to the team’s ‘70s dynasty. It was a big rebound from the dumpster-fire that was most of their time in Kansas City. <br /><br />And it actually closely resembled his time in Cleveland, where he came into a decade-plus of disastrous failure and laid a strong foundation (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nagych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Charles Nagy</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Thome</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=ramirma02,ramire009man,ramire010man&search=Manny+Ramirez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Manny Ramirez</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=alomasa02,alomasa01&search=Sandy+Alomar&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sandy Alomar</a> Jr.…) for the next decade of major success. Peters was already 67 at that point, and retired on his own terms, appointing a handpicked successor. Maybe he should have stayed on and claimed the credit for one or two of their upcoming pennants, but I can hardly begrudge a man for deciding to retire at that age. Besides, we can all pretty plainly see the hand he played in those successes, it’s not like he was denied credit (really, the biggest regret might be Cleveland fans, wondering if Peters could have gotten them the rest of the way over the hump).<br /><br />In comparison, Bill White has a much more complicated career. I have long maintained that the Hall needs to do a better job of recognizing figures with cases that span multiple facets of the game, people like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floodcu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Curt Flood</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy John</a> (Dusty Baker would have been another good example, had he not picked up the World Series that long eluded him). And maybe the Hall voters have been getting better about it? Buck O’Neill, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hodgegi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gil Hodges</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kaatji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-12-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Kaat</a> all have claims to being this type of hybrid case, at least. <br /><br />If so, White would be a strong continuing of that change. A World Series champion with 7 Gold Gloves at first base and five All-Star seasons, he reached 34.0 career fWAR and 38.6 bWAR. It was a good enough career to get him into the Cardinals’ team Hall of Fame, but maybe not to Cooperstown by itself. Except that’s not all; White was also influential behind the scenes, even from his playing days. He played a key role speaking out against the Jim Crow laws that were still in place, particularly the ones in Florida that affected every team during Spring Training. <br /><br />After his playing days were over, White would move into the broadcasting booth, spending nearly twenty years as part of the Yankees’ broadcast team while also sometimes moonlighting covering other major events (including the World Series and Winter Olympics). After that, he would move to the league offices, becoming the President of the National League from 1989 to 1994. It goes without saying that he was a trailblazer in both roles, both areas where Black people had either been underrepresented or totally absent (again, <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-candidate-bill-white/">Jay Jaffe has a more complete rundown on the specifics</a>). And again, neither of those roles are things that can be quantified to the extent that managers or even general managers can, but by most accounts, he was very good in both positions.<br /><br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Putting It All Together</h4>All of that leaves just two questions: Who would I vote for, and Who do I think will get in? I get three spots, and that will probably also serve as our limit on the induction class size (we could get as many as four, but it would require some exact coordination on the part of the voters, and I don’t expect to see that).<br /><br />As I mentioned in the manager section, <b>Jim Leyland</b> gets my vote for best manager. I have a hard time picking a second-best choice, but given our strength in the other half of the ballot and how underrepresented those roles can be, I’m fine not picking a second manager. For the other slots, I’m inclined to go with <b>Hank Peters</b> and <b>Bill White</b>, although I’m not sure how much of that is my bias against the very nebulous standards for umpires. <br /><br />Of those two, I’m probably more inclined to drop Peters? I think his case stands up, but I also haven’t done a ton of research into other GMs outside of the Hall, and I feel like there might be better ones not yet in Cooperstown? It kind of doesn’t matter, my ultimate guiding principle is usually “vote for them if they’re worthy, ignore whatever dumb choices past voters might have made”. But it’s also of note that Peters is the one deceased man on the ballot, so his case is slightly less urgent if it would mean someone else actually getting to give their own induction speech. <br /><br />How do I think the voters will go? As mentioned, I think they’re going to love <b>Leyland </b>as a candidate, even if we don’t have past results to base that off of. I have a hard time imagining <b>Lou Piniella</b> falling short again after missing by one vote last time; maybe <i>I </i>think he's pretty similar to the other managers here, but the voters generally don't seem to agree. And I still don’t really have much to base this off of, but I bet they fall hard for <b>Joe West</b>’s Games Umpired record and general persona. Overall, I don’t think that makes for a bad set, given that all three of these roles are pretty underrepresented and none of these candidates is clearly undeserving… but I would find it a moderately disappointing result, I guess. We’ll just have to wait and see how close I am, though. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-fields{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:25px auto 0 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-field{min-width:220px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 0 15px 0;-webkit-flex:1 0 100%;-ms-flex:1 0 100%;flex:1 0 100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] [data-style="minimal"]{padding:40px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"]{margin-left:-5px;margin-right:-5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br />Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-18451917401980613912023-11-16T00:45:00.000-05:002023-11-16T00:45:26.549-05:00As 2023 Comes to a Close, the Number of 2000s Players Continues to Rapidly Decrease<p>Almost exactly two years ago, I made note of a shocking trend: <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/11/buster-poseys-retirement-accentuates.html">we were losing 2000s players at an alarming rate</a>. And in the short time since the 2023 season ended, we’ve seen a number of high-profile retirements, which has made me want to look into the matter again.<br /><br />But first, I wanted to quickly remind everyone of some basics. First, when I refer to “2000s Players”, I’m of course talking about players who debuted between 2000 to 2009, not just “any players who have debuted since 2000”. This topic is kind of a follow-up to <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2014/12/last-active-mlb-player-from-1990s.html">something I looked at almost a decade ago</a>, trying to predict who would be the final active player from the 1990s. Once we ran out of 1990s players, it seemed natural to move on to the next decade, so I figured I’d shelve the issue until around 2024 or so.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Except when <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a> announced his surprise retirement back in 2021, I began poking around in Baseball-Reference and realized that the topic was coming up on us much quicker than I ever expected. You see, historically, “The Last Active Player from a Decade” has been shockingly predictable:<br /><br /><br /><b>Last Player from the 1920s: </b><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paigesa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Satchel Paige</a> made it to 1965 if you count his comeback publicity stunt; if you only count regular players, Paige tied with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/newsobo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobo Newsom</a> (retired 1953)<br /><b>Last Player from the 1930s:</b> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wynnea01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Early Wynn</a> (1963)<br /><b>Last Player from the 1940s:</b> Minnie Miñoso (1980) if you count his comeback publicity stunts, otherwise <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayswi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willie Mays</a> (1973)<br /><b>Last Player from the 1950s:</b> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kaatji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Kaat</a> (1983)<br /><b>Last Player from the 1960s:</b> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fiskca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlton Fisk</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanno01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Ryan</a> (1993)<br /><b>Last Player from the 1970s: </b><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/henderi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rickey Henderson</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oroscje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jesse Orosco</a> (2003)<br /><b>Last Player from the 1980s: </b><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jamie Moyer</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Omar Vizquel</a> (2012)<br /><br /><br />Maybe it’s just me, but I find that stability hilarious: for six straight decades, the last active player would hang up their cleats exactly 24 years after the decade ended. The 1980s saw that slip to 23 years, which is maybe a little unusual, but ultimately not really a meaningful difference.<br /><br />…Except that, with the benefit of hindsight, maybe it was a sign of things to come? After all of that, our final 1990s players wound up being <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrián Beltré</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bartolo Colon</a>, who both called it quits* after the 2018 season, or five years early if you go by that 24-year rule. <br /><br /><i>*Technically, Colon would go play in the Mexican League in 2021, but his MLB days ended in 2018.</i><br /><br />And if you were hoping that 2000s players might prove to be a rebound here, you’re probably going to be disappointed; for as aggressive as the last decade was at pushing 1990s players out of the league, things are only looking worse for 2000s players this decade. In fact, we’ve generally been a year ahead of the already-accelerated schedule that decade was on:<p></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /><br /><style type="text/css">
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</p><table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-wa1i">Year</th>
<th class="tg-wa1i">Remaining 1990s Players</th>
<th class="tg-wa1i">Remaining 2000s Players</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2009/2019</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">198</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">134</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2010/2020</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">141</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">82*</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2011/2021</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">103</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">72</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2012/2022</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">73</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2013/2023</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">47</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2014/2024</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">26</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">TBD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2015/2025</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">15</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">TBD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-cly1">2016/2026</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td class="tg-cly1" style="text-align: center;">TBD</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><br /><br /><br /><i>*2020 was obviously affected by the pandemic shortening the season.</i><br /><br />And that brings us to the topic that kicked off this article: we’re already down 4 players going into 2024. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a> announced before the season that 2023 would be the end of the road, and since the conclusion of the World Series, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=cruzne02,cruzne01&search=Nelson+Cruz&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nelson Cruz</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=kenneia01,kenned002ian&search=Ian+Kennedy&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ian Kennedy</a> have all officially joined him. Going off last decade’s precedent, we can probably expect around another five or so players to hang it up.<br /><br />And looking over <a href="https://stathead.com/sharing/16RMb">the full list of remaining 2000s players</a>, it’s not hard to find five candidates for those spots. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Daniel Hudson</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a> have <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/clayton-kershaw-undecided-on-future.html">all</a> <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/daniel-hudson-undecided-about-future.html">publicly</a> <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/royals-rumors-zack-greinke-2024-retire.html">expressed</a> uncertainty about returning next year; Kershaw was good enough last year, and Greinke is close enough to 3000 strikeouts, that those two seem unlikely, but I also thought that about <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mussimi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Mussina</a> once upon a time, so we can’t take it for granted. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillri01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rich Hill</a> has <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/players/rich-hill">mused about pitching a half-season next year</a>, at 44, and there hasn’t been an update on that front to my knowledge. And there’s no shortage of oft-injured players on that list, who might be privately pondering if it’s worth it to play another season. <br /><br />Of course, not every player here might get a choice in whether they play next year. No one even tried picking up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a> and his 10.26 ERA after the Diamondbacks cut him in April. Ditto <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy Hunter</a> (6.85 ERA in 23.2 IP), who the Mets cut in June. And teams always need more pitching, but you have to wonder how many calls <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Carrasco</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto</a> will see this winter as free agents in their late 30s, given that both carried ERAs north of 6 last year. Even if they do snag a Spring Training invite, their performance this season definitely casts doubt on whether they actually have enough left in the tank to make a 2024 roster. <br /><br />Still, it’s difficult to trim down our list too far beyond that; something in the neighborhood of 15 2000s players left sounds about right for 2024. The forecast looks shaky beyond that, but a rapid dropoff at that point would also be right in line with the decline of ‘90s players (who went from 15 to 7 to 3 to 2 over the course of 2015 to 2018).<br /><br />That would also put us on pace for the final 2000s player stepping off the field sometime in 2027, and honestly, that guess doesn’t feel too off-base. Go back and look at that list I posted, and add 4 years to everyone’s ages; which players do you still see playing then? Our only sub-40 players at that point will be Bumgarner, Kershaw, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a>, meaning our best bet there is the pitcher with the long injury history who’s been going year-to-year on contracts.<br /><br />Honestly, that’s kind of the recurring problem on our list. The younger half is all somehow more precarious, through injuries, underperformance, or some combination of the two, while the older half generally had a fine 2023 but will need to keep that up until their age 42 or 43 seasons. Ultimately, there are enough good players here, and we only need one to pull through, so saying something like “<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-16_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a> retires after his age-42 season” or “Clayton Kershaw holds it together long enough to reach 2027” doesn’t seem too crazy. <br /><br />But man, does predicting even one extra year on top of that feel unlikely; remember, 2017 is still one year less far-out comparatively than 1990s players made it with Beltre and Colon. And the final representatives of all the decades before then made it over half a decade on top of that. How did they even do that? It seems unthinkable in the modern context. <br /><br />Something <i>must </i>have changed, right? Like, bad timing could explain a little bit of variation between the 1990s crop of players and the 2000s one, but that still doesn’t account for all of the decades before that. And you can point to steroids, but again, this is a trend that goes all the way back to players who debuted in the <b><i>1920s</i></b>, so there had to also be some sort of non-steroid factor in play as well.<br /><br />At this point, I figured it might be good to actually put numbers to it, to get a better sense of the overall trends we’re seeing. So I used Baseball-Reference to get a count of the number of players 36 or older who played in every season dating all the way back to the start of integration in 1947. The results are pretty striking:<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMTJfXQ-kT4MGaDB-F2nDWB3RRbH7tcqUW5Hpo0QxaSmTWQ3aOMBLQ_Nf71mfLNvOJCsp13IMZJfiT5480W0BYFLGIjH-ghIwc7cUpGbkGfGRaI3paqtJPIrY1EWgQLnqkD9K8gpi9lyYehAIWgpkVZdQX-AlPNt0BaI8-P00-gn_C3wtoJd8VB12KyU7M/s3382/MLB%20Players%2035.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2025" data-original-width="3382" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMTJfXQ-kT4MGaDB-F2nDWB3RRbH7tcqUW5Hpo0QxaSmTWQ3aOMBLQ_Nf71mfLNvOJCsp13IMZJfiT5480W0BYFLGIjH-ghIwc7cUpGbkGfGRaI3paqtJPIrY1EWgQLnqkD9K8gpi9lyYehAIWgpkVZdQX-AlPNt0BaI8-P00-gn_C3wtoJd8VB12KyU7M/w640-h384/MLB%20Players%2035.png" width="640" /></a><br /><br />As you can see, after two high counts due to the larger number of teams (the Negro Leagues were granted Major League status only through 1948, meaning there were 28 teams being measured for those two season), the number of active older players basically stays in the 20 to 40 range for three decades. Even the extra roster spots from eight new teams being added to the league in the 1960s didn’t really open any doors for older players right away.<br /><br />Of course, it takes off after that throughout the 1980s, dips slightly and plateaus in the 1990s, and then peaks for the entirety of the 2000s. We then drop steeply into the range we saw in the ‘80s and ‘90s, bottoming out in 2018 before rebounding back into that wide “40-80” range. Of course, these are all raw numbers; if you want to adjust based on the number of available roster spots, we’re seeing a rate much closer to the 1970s and very early ‘80s. <br /><br />So that’s part of our answer: we actually are seeing a decrease in old players, compared to the last few decades. And it kind of naturally follows from there, the fewer 36 year olds in the league, the lower the odds that at least one of them will play significantly more time. Of course, there’s still a missing part of the equation here; we’re at the lowest point for old players we’ve been in four-to-five decades, but the last time we were this low (and even before that, when we had even fewer old players) we still regularly saw at least a few players make it 24 or 25 seasons. <br /><br />Of course, maybe you’ve already figured out the other half of this puzzle. Players in the 1960s and ‘70s weren’t generally playing as much into their late 30s and early 40s, but they were starting earlier. As evidence, here’s the number of players in every season younger than 23, once again since the start of the integration era:<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIzYM8R8uI_HozHBiddvIaqBvA7a8MwVSXi3cIGsnrX3nDwy10hKzLQPz1VMSuDT8qAaC9DV7pVU4gwW0usaWVdkgz2ZNKxPd2rXi37JKdWc1hyphenhyphenfK7_EPRURxAEWIuPBMQ7qEO1bvrS-jXAtI_1YPVbcHeTcgOwR10wUCxkmpyRrhBdZ_IEl1vXvm4S-qQ/s3245/MLB%20Players%2022.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1980" data-original-width="3245" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIzYM8R8uI_HozHBiddvIaqBvA7a8MwVSXi3cIGsnrX3nDwy10hKzLQPz1VMSuDT8qAaC9DV7pVU4gwW0usaWVdkgz2ZNKxPd2rXi37JKdWc1hyphenhyphenfK7_EPRURxAEWIuPBMQ7qEO1bvrS-jXAtI_1YPVbcHeTcgOwR10wUCxkmpyRrhBdZ_IEl1vXvm4S-qQ/w640-h390/MLB%20Players%2022.png" width="640" /></a><br /><br /><br />The decline has been much more gradual compared to the decline of old players, but it’s pretty undeniable. This isn’t the worst time ever for super-young players, but it’s maybe just one tier above “the worst time”. But of course, once again, this is in spite of the greater number of teams and roster spots; if you go just on a players-per-team basis, 2023, 2022, and 2021 have in fact been (respectively) the fourth-worst, sixth-worst, and worst seasons in Major League history.<br /><br />So players are getting called up later, and retiring earlier. Add those two sides together, and we’re seeing a lack of extreme players at either end not seen since basically the 1950s; of course, the ‘50s managed this total with roughly half of the roster spots that exist today. If you want a visual look at those trends:<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAhJJhyphenhyphenj78n8m-7w8t-b3JfPU_QJdHs9zD-YyCEF-vIcR-Y2htUEhp6QGlQFtL4-EcJkS_RdSFfXsKXCoieSAI_zITDSfKZto0km6Lji53v1amHg8N9b5vVvAe2Ip9Jkf4R94aQx5BPomi3u4Ym7M27u4lG602JtT1YlNe2tNkZ1l4w6KvPqLJGVQ2nfgK/s3290/MLB%20Old+Young%20Players.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1943" data-original-width="3290" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAhJJhyphenhyphenj78n8m-7w8t-b3JfPU_QJdHs9zD-YyCEF-vIcR-Y2htUEhp6QGlQFtL4-EcJkS_RdSFfXsKXCoieSAI_zITDSfKZto0km6Lji53v1amHg8N9b5vVvAe2Ip9Jkf4R94aQx5BPomi3u4Ym7M27u4lG602JtT1YlNe2tNkZ1l4w6KvPqLJGVQ2nfgK/w640-h378/MLB%20Old+Young%20Players.png" width="640" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNHbulekkJ-oR8pNmbwyzz3PDsMRj8HLfObaV0IV0pH0f8KFpirSRtNCPNQImQlHuYRzQroLlkOiBcojBTjkv9aNBeNapFpXacv4rk0dpVS5MR_SD8OccNjOdyPIRaOW__YUTgPkRv3KKIUOXQjsWnMr2WJtJWNAWHilOvmnRdAf8n42Ld7mRWmpUCp7-q/s3341/MLB%20Old+Young%20Players%20Per%20Team.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1856" data-original-width="3341" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNHbulekkJ-oR8pNmbwyzz3PDsMRj8HLfObaV0IV0pH0f8KFpirSRtNCPNQImQlHuYRzQroLlkOiBcojBTjkv9aNBeNapFpXacv4rk0dpVS5MR_SD8OccNjOdyPIRaOW__YUTgPkRv3KKIUOXQjsWnMr2WJtJWNAWHilOvmnRdAf8n42Ld7mRWmpUCp7-q/w640-h356/MLB%20Old+Young%20Players%20Per%20Team.png" width="640" /></a><br /><br /><br />Of course, “fewer young players and fewer old players” explain the issue somewhat, but not entirely, not to mention that it doesn’t really explain why we’re seeing this trend. Of course, on both accounts, there are some pretty obvious culprits at play here, including: the greater focus on player development delaying young stars in the minors rather than calling them up right away; the greater prevalence of steroid testing likely disproportionately affecting older players; growing concerns of injuries for young pitchers who throw a lot of innings at a young age; larger contracts offering players enough money to feel comfortable walking away earlier than they may have felt in an earlier era; and the optimization of roster construction that emphasizes cheap younger players over more expensive veterans, while also trying to delay those young players’ service time to maximize peak seasons before free agency. <br /><br />I don’t know that I can say how much each of these factors contributes to the issue of fewer long-running major league stars, but I’m also not sure how much it matters? There’s definitely not the sort of widespread discontent with the issue in fan circles, at least, not in the way we saw with something like, the lack of balls in play. And even if it was a bigger issue for fans, a lot of these factors can’t be tweaked anyway, or to the extent that they can, then certainly not as easily as enforcing a pitch clock or banning the shift.<br /><br />The one change that I <i>might </i>see affecting this is an expansion; our current run of 25 years with 30 teams is far and away the longest Major League Baseball has held a status quo since… I suppose from the expansion of the AL in 1901 to the first MLB expansion in 1961? Of course, even that era saw turnover in top-level team counts outside of MLB, between things like the experiment of the Federal League, or the turnover in Negro League teams. And of course, every other sports league has now expanded to 32 teams, not to mention that overall population growth in that time means an expansion would probably be justified. <br /><br />Perhaps a sudden flood of new roster spots would change how front offices value those spots, and inspire teams to bring back a few older players, or try a few more young players to fill things out? But I’m not even sure of that; teams might just decide they’re better off going with even more 24-to-30 year old AAA players, rather than risk giving those spots to unproven younger rookies, or trying to squeeze more on an older veteran. I suppose we won’t really know the specifics of how these roster decisions will play out until expansion happens on its own (which I do think will happen eventually, although I couldn’t begin to guess at the owners’ timeframe here).<br /><br />Of course, that’s all long-term; discussion of expansion teams seem to be confined to whispers while the league tries to deal with moving the A’s (and then perhaps the two Florida teams? Who really knows what their plans are...). One day it might change, but it’s not going to happen in time to extend the careers of any 2000s players; look for the best contenders for the Last Player to assert themselves in 2024 and 2025, and for the issue to be resolved in the next four years or so.
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.formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br />Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-82966631815789045512023-11-02T01:36:00.002-04:002023-11-02T01:36:45.124-04:002023 World Series Trivia: Best Players Without a World Series, and More!<p>The 2023 World Series has ended, with the Texas Rangers defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks and winning their first championship, in what is just the third-ever all-expansion team World Series. And as is tradition here, I have published a new Sporcle quiz: <a href="https://www.sporcle.com/games/piano_guitar/best-active-players-without-a-world-series-2023">Best Active Players Without a World Series, 2023 Edition</a>. I’ll write a little more after the break, but I’ll give the spoiler-averse among us a chance to try it before hitting all of that. <br /><br />Additionally, I’ve updated my other new quiz, <a href="https://www.sporcle.com/games/piano_guitar/mlb-stars-with-world-series-on-surprising-teams">Stars with World Series wins on surprising teams</a>, so if you missed that, maybe give it a look as well! I also updated my other postseason quizzes as well to reflect their win (although the WPA ones might need to wait a day or two, since pulling the data for those is a little more work). </p><p><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br />Anyway, the Rangers’ win brings an end to what was the second-longest World Series drought, at 62 seasons (behind only the Guardians, who are at 75 years). The Brewers and Padres take over second place, as the two 1969 expansion teams have not won a championship in their 55 years (the other half of that expansion, the Royals and Expos/Nationals, are both covered). That also leaves those two teams with the Mariners, Rockies, and Rays as the only five teams left in MLB without a title. <br /><br />That really is a remarkable thing, too; 62 years was tied for the seventh-longest drought in history with the Senators/Twins (1924-1987). That also means that six of the fourteen longest World Series droughts in MLB history (all 50+ years) have ended since the turn of the millennium (the Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Astros, and Expos/Nationals).<br /><br />Additionally, the Rangers’ turnaround from 2022 (when they went 68-94) represents the biggest single-season improvement for a World Series winner in history. And I think their win will hopefully give pause to the idea that signing free agents is a bad team-building strategy, given how many people seemed to want to point to the collapse of the Mets and historical bad luck of the Padres in the final days of the regular season (I was never sure why the Phillies were again being ignore here). Yeah, things didn’t work out in 2022, but you are actually signing the best of these players for the long-haul!<br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br />Now for the players: two players removed their name from the 2022 version of the Best Players quiz, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/semiema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Semien</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a>. Yes, deGrom was injured for the postseason, but I count everyone who played for a team during their winning season, so he’s in the clear. Most of the other big beneficiaries on this front are down-the-road names, guys like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carteev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Carter</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jungjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Josh Jung</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garciad02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adolis Garcia</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=montgjo01,montgo001jor&search=Jordan+Montgomery&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jordan Montgomery</a>, who aren’t on the list now but could have easily gotten there with a few big years. <br /><br />But the Rangers also bring an interesting menagerie of players who have already won on different teams, foremost among them clearly being… <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=smithwi05,smithwi04,smith-091wil,smith-090wil,smith-088wil,smith-086wil&search=Will+Smith&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Will Smith</a>. Well, maybe not, but the Rangers’ mop-up man did become a historic figure in baseball history with the win, becoming just the eighteenth player to win a World Series with three different teams.* And he’s of course the first person to do all of those in back-to-back-to-back years, jumping from the Braves to the Astros to the Rangers; only nine other players have done that twice in a row.^ If you want to add in the Dodgers’ unrelated Will Smith, this also means that someone with that name has won the last four World Series, which is… probably not very meaningful, but definitely weird and unique trivia!<br /><br /><i>*The list, in addition to Will Smith: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gorete01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Terrance Gore</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennohe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Herb Pennock</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcinnst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Stuffy McInnis</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=morrija02,morris013jac,morris012jac&search=Jack+Morris&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jack Morris</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schanwa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Wally Schang</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bushjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bullet Joe Bush</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lackejo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">John Lackey</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithlo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lonnie Smith</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewada01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dave Stewart</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=burnsge02,burnsge01&search=George+Burns&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">George Burns</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carltst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Steve Carlton</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jay Johnstone</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowelmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Lowell</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luquedo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dolf Luque</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/polonlu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Polonia</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altroni01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nick Altrock</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burdele01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lew Burdette</a>.</i><br /><br /><i>^The rest of that list: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pederjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joc Pederson</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zobribe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ben Zobrist</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peavyja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jake Peavy</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/theriry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryan Theriot</a>, Jack Morris, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gulledo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Don Gullett</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/skowrbi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bill Skowron</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/labincl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Clem Labine</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clarkal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Allie Clark</a>.</i><br /><br />Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Seager</a> became <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/multiple-world-series-mvp-award-winners">just the fourth player to win two World Series MVP awards</a>, and just the second to win them with two different teams (after <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Reggie Jackson</a>). He’s signed through 2031, and so probably won’t join the three-team club anytime soon (if at all). But <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nathan Eovaldi</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a> both just picked up their second with a different team, and each have one more year under their contracts (plus a vesting option for Eovaldi), so it’s more plausible. Also, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chapmar01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aroldis Chapman</a> is a free agent after this year, but I’d rather not see him win a third time.<br /><br />And of course, there’s <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bruce Bochy</a>, who <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/managers-with-most-world-series-titles-in-mlb-history">became just the sixth manager to win four or more World Series</a>, and <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/rangers/2023/11/01/bruce-bochy-beat-rangers-in-world-series-won-with-texas/71412734007/">only the fifth to win titles on multiple teams</a>. Bochy didn’t really need more flourishes on his resume for the Hall of Fame, he was already a pretty clear shoo-in, but it’s still got to feel pretty good. <br /><br />Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ playoff shocking run comes to an end a little short, and the 1987 Twins will for the time being remain the only World Series winner with a negative regular season run differential. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marteke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ketel Marte</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phamth01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy Pham</a> (plus <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/galleza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zac Gallen</a>, who just missed this year’s list) will have to wait for next year to try again (unless Longoria retires, I guess; I’d still like to see him hang on a little longer). Still, taking home just the second pennant in franchise history is a big deal!<br /><br />And with that, 2023 is in the books, so we can shortly move on to the offseason, including free agency, awards, and (of course) Hall of Fame voting; I anticipate a busy winter on that last front at least, so stay tuned!<script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-41692741515921729552023-10-27T01:45:00.002-04:002023-10-27T01:47:27.618-04:00New Sporcle Quiz: Players with World Series Wins on Unusual Teams<p>In honor of the start of the World Series, I’ve published a new quiz of Sporcle Trivia: <a href="https://www.sporcle.com/games/piano_guitar/mlb-stars-with-world-series-on-surprising-teams">Can you name the players who won a World Series on surprising teams</a>? The rest of this piece will have some minor spoilers for answers, if you want to give it a try first and then come back to read the rest. </p><p><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br />As you might have guessed, this is a little bit inspired by <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/Best%20Players%20Without%20a%20World%20Series">my “Best Players without a World Series” quizzes</a> (new version of that to come after the Series ends, of course), particularly how longtime answers <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a> both finally have a chance to win their first title after years and years, albeit for very different teams than they're known for; those two share the first answer on the quiz, with the winner getting to stay and the loser getting removed. <br /><br />It’s kind of a loose definition, but I found a number of good names for the list. Still not as many as I expected going in, though; this is still a relatively-new phenomenon, one very largely tied to free agency. Also thankfully, I feel most of the picks fit the definition pretty well; I could have maybe stretched it to “teams that won a World Series with anyone other than their Primary Team”, but I basically scratched any edge cases. I think the closest ones here are, like, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartega01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Carter</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/howarfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Frank Howard</a>? Both of which still played nearly twice as many games for what I think of as their “primary” team.<br /><br />I guess guys like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mizejo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Mize</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/evansda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Darrell Evans</a> are also maybe edge cases, where their years were pretty well split between three teams, but in both cases, I think it’s clear the teams they won with their weakest tenure. Still, it is kind of funny in the case of Mize, who wound up with 5 whole World Series titles for what basically wound up being four and a half years in a part-time role (the 1940s and ’50s Yankees were just ridiculous). Really, a couple of the Yankees answers wound up with multiple titles, although for most of them, it still definitely was not in their prime years.<br /><br />I also decided to keep it to players who only won on these surprising teams, but there were a lot of good answers I could have gone with if I included players who also won while playing for teams they’re more associated with. I had ideas like Bery Blyleven on the Pirates, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matheed01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Eddie Mathews</a> on the Tigers, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dave Parker</a> on the Athletics, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marisro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Maris</a> on the Cardinals, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carltst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Steve Carlton</a> on the Twins, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paigesa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Satchel Paige</a> on the Indians… really, I might just do more research and pull that quiz together another day, we’ll see. And I wasn’t even sure how to treat guys who won with a team they’re known for, but jumped around a lot (like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgrifr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fred McGriff</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-27_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roberto Alomar</a>)... But for now, I was able to pull together 28 names, and that seemed like a good enough starting point.
Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-86812509417937778732023-10-02T23:55:00.002-04:002023-10-02T23:55:32.749-04:00Return of the Yearly Postseason Trivia Rundown, 2023 Edition<p>Once again, we are back with the 2023 Edition of <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/Playoff%20Trivia">Playoff Trivia</a>! I don’t think my opinions of the twelve-team format have shifted very much over the last year, even after the 2022 postseason, so if you want to see what those were again, you’re welcome to <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/10/2022-mlb-playoff-trivia.html">check it out over here</a>. If my thoughts are at all different, it might be that the new system might need to do some re-seeding for the second round? <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />I more or less made my peace last year with the idea that the team with the second-best record in a League might be ignored for a bye because they were a wild card team rather than a division winner. Maybe awarding byes purely on record would be a little better, but as long as the worst division winners were also being denied a bye, this system probably balances out a little by at least denying the dumbest cases (like a .500-Division Winner getting a bye <i>in the place of</i> a 100-win Wild Card). <br /><br />But it does seem a little weird that the default bracket right now automatically has the best wild card team face off against the #1 seed in the league in the division round. It seems odd that the top team’s “reward” for their success will fairly often be “facing the second-best record in the Division Series”. And even leaving aside what the top seed “deserves” for their success, it also might make more sense to use a system that reserves that sort of “clash of the titans” meeting for the Championship Series round? <br /><br />But overall, yeah, I still enjoy this more than the old five team system, and we will probably just have to wait and see if this becomes a recurring issue. With all that said, we can probably jump into the trivia!<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u><i>DROUGHTS</i></u></b><br /><br />Despite the fact that the last three World Series winners make up a quarter of the postseason field in 2023, this year’s drought breakdown is generally in-line with last year’s field, if not slightly <i>more</i> geared towards long-suffering teams. <br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7MwWZCXSI0Ti28zkXh0qioX1iiM7R4A_TbA4wlrhMw0QIW6p8cAoVK2WMcTwRRDMf5fALIeZAJn3xLlfJejQL_-rmyY6PNZielTEuTg3fPrIa7DwUhCnAYDSc5AvcmBatiLYpBZDwbuX0n6zRhbBfh25BMj0p4BGdr3ByN1tDmncBDB_YPdAS75W-K_2H/s2126/2023playoffdroughtavg.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1251" data-original-width="2126" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7MwWZCXSI0Ti28zkXh0qioX1iiM7R4A_TbA4wlrhMw0QIW6p8cAoVK2WMcTwRRDMf5fALIeZAJn3xLlfJejQL_-rmyY6PNZielTEuTg3fPrIa7DwUhCnAYDSc5AvcmBatiLYpBZDwbuX0n6zRhbBfh25BMj0p4BGdr3ByN1tDmncBDB_YPdAS75W-K_2H/w640-h376/2023playoffdroughtavg.png" width="640" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZj_oy768nlZBUSWldrEHFHAf7M5V_BgFVUG-hdEk4KAnjDoLH-udMWkwsmH1c__2toOXGHO5JSnyfab6NdZVrJ7jVRXE3_UcmIyrWLsrH4dCV0TEHexSStald1dhulriYQXCUpBiifAWPnB5nYBSHs6oRPe4A7QzzaUxZLQolO7aO8fn4quuw8qoNz1Cw/s2122/2023playoffdroughtmed.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1255" data-original-width="2122" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZj_oy768nlZBUSWldrEHFHAf7M5V_BgFVUG-hdEk4KAnjDoLH-udMWkwsmH1c__2toOXGHO5JSnyfab6NdZVrJ7jVRXE3_UcmIyrWLsrH4dCV0TEHexSStald1dhulriYQXCUpBiifAWPnB5nYBSHs6oRPe4A7QzzaUxZLQolO7aO8fn4quuw8qoNz1Cw/w640-h378/2023playoffdroughtmed.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br />In fact, the Phillies are actually the fourth most-recent winners here, despite breaking a decade-long playoff drought just last year. The Marlins, who last won it all twenty years ago in 2003 and have only returned to the postseason once in the interim (the shortened 2020 season), still represent the fifth most recent winners, while half of the field has not won it all since the turn of the millennium (if at all). <br /><br />That all-around balance is part of how we managed to match last year’s average, despite losing the active leaders for longest drought, the Guardians. The Rangers and Brewers (who have never won) more than covered for losing the similarly-titleless Padres and Mariners; in net, those changes were just swapping the fifth-longest drought for the second-longest one (with the Padres and Brewers being tied for third-longest). And Baltimore is in seventh place (and hitting the fortieth anniversary of their most recent title this year), all of which goes to explain why we stayed consistent in average. Also of note, the pair of teams making up the median this time are 1998 expansion mates the Diamondbacks (won in 2001) and the Rays (no wins).<br /><br />Looking into it a little more, it’s actually kind of shocking that having all 3 of the Astros, Braves, and Dodgers didn’t ruin the numbers here. In the Wild Card era, only two other playoffs featured three unique teams who have won in the last three years, 2009 (Cardinals, Red Sox, and Phillies) and 2012 (Yankees, Giants, and Cardinals). You can easily pick out 2009 on those charts above, it’s the year that’s way below everything else. 2012 avoided a similar fate in a way similar to this year, making sure there were a lot of 30-to-50 year droughts to balance out all of the recent winners. If it weren’t for the absence of a lot of familiar October faces this year, we’d probably be much closer to 2009 here (but we’ll get into that later). <br /><br />Of course, for the pessimists, you could just point out that those last three winners make up 3 of our 4 first round byes, which limits our chances of a major drought ending a little; but there’s enough randomness here that it’s not a given that one of them storms to a repeat.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><i><u>PLAYERS WITHOUT A WORLD SERIES</u></i></b><br /><br />Once again, after the World Series ends, I’ll be posting another edition of my Sporcle quiz on the <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/Best%20Players%20Without%20a%20World%20Series">Best Active Players Without a World Series</a> with the new winners removed. For anyone who doesn’t want to know any of the players going into it, I’ll just include how many of them will be playing in October, and for which teams. If you’d like to know who specifically you can root for, though, I’ll include a Spoilers section at the end of this piece with names. We’ve got a pretty wide range this year: Toronto leads the way with a full five names, and Milwaukee and Philadelphia are right on their heels. The young Orioles and Rays are the only teams totally unrepresented, but even then, a win this year will prevent some of their young stars from appearing on lists down the line.<br /><br /><br />None: Orioles, Rays<br />One: Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Marlins<br />Two: Rangers<br />Three: Diamondbacks, Twins<br />Four: Brewers, Phillies<br />Five: Blue Jays<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u><i>THREE-TEAM WATCH</i></u></b><br /><br />After its debut in last season’s column, I’ve decided to make this section a regular part of the series! As a quick recap, we’re looking here for players who have won a World Series with multiple teams, to see if anyone is poised to tie the record of winning with three different teams (<a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/11/best-active-players-without-world-series-2021.html">currently held by seventeen players</a>).<br /><br />And this year, we actually do have a few players trying to tie that record! <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Christian Vazquez</a> (2018 Red Sox) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=smithwi05,smithwi04,smith-091wil,smith-090wil,smith-088wil,smith-086wil&search=Will+Smith&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Will Smith</a> (2021 Braves) both picked up their second title last year as deadline acquisitions for the Astros, and then joined new teams as free agents. And now, both the Twins and Rangers will be playing in October. Additionally, Smith last year <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/players-to-win-back-to-back-world-series-with-two-teams">became just the tenth player in history to win titles with two different teams in back-to-back seasons</a>, so a third straight team-and-title will obviously be all kinds of historic. On top of that, thanks to the Marlins’ dark horse run at the title, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jorge Soler</a> (2016 Cubs, 2021 Braves) will also be trying for his third unique championship team.<br /><br />Outside of them, there are a few players going for their second title on a new team, although there are enough of them that listing every single name would be tedious. Some highlights:<br /><br />-There are plenty of stars who have previously won on new teams this year, including <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brandon Belt</a> (2012, 2014 Giants) on the Blue Jays, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turnetr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trea Turner</a> (2019 Nationals) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Kimbrel</a> (2018 Red Sox) on the Phillies, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">J.D. Martinez</a> (2018 Red Sox) on the Dodgers, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a> (2019 Nationals) on the Rangers. <br /><br />-Of course, you also have a few other recent movers who have not won on their new teams, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Freddie Freeman</a> (2021 Braves) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a> (2016 Cubs) on the Dodgers, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Seager</a> (2020 Dodgers) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nathan Eovaldi</a> (2018 Red Sox) on the Rangers. Brewers’ catcher <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/contrwi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">William Contreras</a> (2021 Braves) might be the most interesting name in this group, since he’s a young star who isn’t even eligible for arbitration yet. Still obviously a long way to go there, though. <br /><br />-For any Crawfish Boxes readers, the Astros don’t really bring any new names to the table, since they won last year and their biggest acquisitions this year were all players without titles. However, there are a number of ex-Astros gunning for this list, including: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">George Springer</a> on the Blue Jays, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mchugco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Collin McHugh</a> on the Braves, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gourryu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yuli Gurriel</a> on the Marlins, plus <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Correa</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keuchda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dallas Keuchel</a> on the Twins with Vazquez.<br /><br /><br /><br /><u><i><b>EXPANSION TEAMS</b></i></u><br /><br />Once again, with seven expansion teams playing in October, our chance at seeing just the third ever all-expansion-team World Series (following 2015 and 2019) is looking pretty good! That’s been the case for the last few years, though, to no avail, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. <br /><br />As has been the case the last few years, the AL side of the equation looks very promising. Four out of six teams* (the Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Astros) are expansion teams. It’s not a full 2-in-3 chance, though, since there are byes involved; if you assume coin flips for every series (not a bad simple estimate, given baseball’s randomness) the odds are a little closer to 5-in-8.<br /><br /><i>*And really, even though we won’t count them here, even our two non-expansion teams (the Orioles and Twins) kind of feel like expansion teams; both of them relocated right around the start of the expansion era while completely rebranding to distance themselves from years of futility (as the St. Louis Browns and first Washington Senators, respectively). Since neither of them really acknowledges their history prior to their moves, it does kind of make it feel like they just suddenly appeared, much like the expansion teams.</i><br /><br />That bye system is what makes the NL side of the equation, as usual, look a lot less promising. While there are three expansion teams over there, the Dodgers and Braves (both original teams) have locked up the byes. In practice, that means our basic odds are a lot closer to 3-in-8 (and that estimate only goes down if you give the Dodgers and Braves more advantages to reflect their 100-win seasons). <br /><br />If you want to combine those, our chances here are maybe closer to 15-in-64 or worse, or a little under 1-in-4. So not great, but then again, that still does beat the chances we were seeing in 2019; anything can happen here!<br /><br />Also, I’ll note here that the Astros, Blue Jays, and Marlins will all be gunning to become the first Expansion Team with three titles, while the Diamondbacks will be trying to become just the sixth one (out of fourteen in all) with two titles.<br /><br /><br /><br /><u><i><b>UNIQUE MATCHUPS</b></i></u><br /><br />The 2023 postseason will be the first playoff without the Yankees, Red Sox, or Cardinals since 1993; that was literally the last year before the Wild Card was added, back when only four teams total made the postseason. So as you might imagine, with those three out of the picture, we have several opportunities for some different matchups! <br /><br />But not <i>too </i>many. After all, the Braves and Dodgers, quite the October regulars themselves, are still here. And the Phillies have actually met a majority of these AL teams in a championship, despite their relatively smaller number of pennants. The rest of the NL field is a total blank slate, though. <br /><br />On the AL side of things, these distributions are much more even: the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, and Twins have all met exactly two potential NL opponents, while the Astros are at three. Only the Rangers stand out, having faced none of the six NL teams playing in October. <br /><br />One of the more interesting things about this set of teams is that, despite the fact that a third of these potential match-ups have happened before, none of them have happened more than once. <i>That</i> is actually pretty rare, and this is where the relatively young set of AL teams comes in clutch. The oldests of these rematches only goes back to the 1960s (Twins-Dodgers in 1965, with the Orioles-Dodgers coming the next year). We also have every series from 1991 to 1993 represented, plus the last three World Series. <br /><br />As far as interesting potential new match-ups? Off the top of my head, Orioles-Braves and Twins-Phillies are both match-ups of original-16 teams that still haven’t happened. Brewers versus either the Rays or the Rangers would give us our first match-up of two teams without titles since 1980 (and only the third time this has happened going back all the way to 1910*). Blue Jays versus Diamondbacks or Marlins would mean one of those teams would pick up their first World Series loss ever. And if the Astros find themselves facing off against Miami, it would be their fourth different NL East World Series opponent in five years. <br /><br /><i>*Five of the first six World Series were between two titleless teams, and it’s happened only twice since then, 1920 and 1980.</i><br /><br /><br /><style type="text/css">
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<td class="tg-0lax">X</td>
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</table><br /><br /><br /><u><b>Rematches</b></u><br />Twins-Dodgers (1965)<br />Orioles-Dodgers (1966)<br />Orioles-Phillies (1983)<br />Twins-Braves (1991)<br />Blue Jays-Braves (1992)<br />Blue Jays-Phillies (1993)<br />Rays-Phillies (2008)<br />Astros-Dodgers (2017)<br />Rays-Dodgers (2020)<br />Astros-Braves (2021)<br />Astros-Phillies (2022)<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u><i>BEST PLAYERS WITHOUT A WORLD SERIES, BY TEAM (SPOILERS) </i></u></b><p></p><p><br /><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><br />Astros: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a><br />Blue Jays: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kiermke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kevin Kiermaier</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chapmma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Chapman</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kevin Gausman</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryuhy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hyun Jin Ryu</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/merriwh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Whit Merrifield</a><br />Braves: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=olsonma02,olson-006mat&search=Matt+Olson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Olson</a><br />Brewers: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yelicch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Christian Yelich</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=santaca01,santan005car&search=Carlos+Santana&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Santana</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Teheran</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Wade Miley</a><br />Diamondbacks: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marteke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ketel Marte</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phamth01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy Pham</a><br />Dodgers: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wongko01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kolten Wong</a><br />Marlins: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alcansa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sandy Alcantara</a><br />Orioles: none (active career WAR leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gibsoky01,gibson004kyl&search=Kyle+Gibson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a>)<br />Phillies: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/realmjt01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">J.T. Realmuto</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolaaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Nola</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheelza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Wheeler</a><br />Rangers: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/semiema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Semien</a><br />Rays: none (active career WAR leader: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowebr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brandon Lowe</a>)<br />Twins: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sonny Gray</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buxtoby01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keplema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Kepler</a><br /><br />Additionally, under my rules of “anyone who plays for a team during the year they win is taken off the list”, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-02_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jean Segura</a> would qualify for the Marlins (although he was traded to the Guardians and released).<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-6153464300069496972023-08-07T01:11:00.005-04:002023-08-07T01:11:54.218-04:00The Astros Paid a Steep Price at the Trade Deadline, but Their Recent Prospect Development Successes Might Offset Those Losses<p>I started looking at a question several weeks ago, just out of curiosity. It was a complicated question, and I don’t know that I found a conclusive answer; but then, it was a tough question, and I was hardly the first person to take a stab at it. If nothing else, I at least found a lot of interesting bits of trivia, and it seemed like it would maybe be interesting to write about them… except I still never really found a central hook to build it all around. <br /><br />See, my basic question was: Have the Astros been doing a better-than-expected job at converting young prospects into useful big leaguers lately? I mean, it’s an interesting question, but there weren’t any factors making it especially pressing to sort through.<br /><br />And then, we had the trade deadline, with the Astros sending away two players who were very likely their top prospects (<a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gilber002and&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Drew Gilbert</a> and <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cliffo000rya&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Ryan Clifford</a>) in order to re-acquire <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Justin Verlander</a> from the Mets. This came just days after sending away <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leeko01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Korey Lee</a>, another prospect with some hype behind him, in order to re-acquire <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/graveke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Kendall Graveman</a>. As you might figure, those have taken a toll on a farm system that was already regarded as one of the weakest in the majors. <br /><br />There’s a lot going on here; losing big prospects is tough, especially when things are already thin. And part of that is the limitless potential of young players; <b><i>of course </i></b>they’ll all succeed, and keep your team competitive indefinitely through several cost-effective, All-Star quality years. Until they try and fail (a few times), there really isn’t a reason for fans to think otherwise (unless they like being pessimistic, or something). <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-fields{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:0 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 0 15px 0;-webkit-flex:1 0 100%;-ms-flex:1 0 100%;flex:1 0 100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-powered-by-convertkit-container{margin:0;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-submit{position:static;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] [data-style="clean"],.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] [data-style="clean"]{padding:10px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"],.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"]{margin-left:-5px;margin-right:-5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />Of course, in reality, a lot of prospects fail, and a key reason to have a good farm system is to trade bits of it for established players. In fact, as I sit here on the evening of the Trade Deadline (writing this intro, at least), I began the day thinking that I would actually be working on something to that effect, a sort of capstone on <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/2022%20Orioles%20Rebuild%20Series">my series comparing the Orioles’ and Astros’ rebuilds</a>. In fact, I had this big thing planned, where I would point out how weird it was that a second Mike Elias-guided team with a deep farm system acquired a reigning <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Cy Young</a> runner-up with two and a half years of control left from an underperforming AL Central team, but then the White Sox just held on to <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Dylan Cease</a>.<br /><br />But actually, that 2017 Justin Verlander trade isn’t a bad point of comparison, for those feeling the doom-and-gloom side of things right now. In exchange for those stellar 2017 to 2019 season (all that was guaranteed when they acquired him), the Astros gave up three prospects for JV, two who were generally considered top 100 prospects and another who would go on to play in the Futures Game. Except that, as of 2023, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-019fra&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Franklin Perez</a> is 25 and still hasn’t made it to AAA, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camerda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Daz Cameron</a> is on the Orioles’ AAA team after Detroit waived him last November, and <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rogerja03,rogers005jak&search=Jake+Rogers&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jake Rogers</a> (the least-heralded of the trio at the time) is finally, in his third season in the Majors, looking like he can be an average MLB catcher.<br /><br /><br /><span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a><br />Or take the last time the Astros acquired an aging, Cooperstown-bound starter. Back in 2019, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Zack Greinke</a> came over from Arizona. In return, the Astros sent over: <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martico02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Corbin Martin</a>, who is 0-4 with a 7.28 ERA since the trade and missing the entire 2023 season due to injury; <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beerse01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Seth Beer</a>, who has spent the majority of his age-26 season at AA; <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bukaujb01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">J.B. Bukauskas</a>, who is on the Brewers’ AAA team after being waived by two different teams this year; and <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rojasjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Josh Rojas</a>, who is 29 and generally spent his time in Arizona bouncing around just above replacement level before being traded to Seattle at the deadline this year. Going just off of value, Houson clearly won that trade outright (Baseball-Reference has it at 3.5 WAR for Greinke in Houston to 0.6 WAR for everyone in Arizona, while Fangraphs has it at 5.2 WAR to 1.3), and you don’t even need to get into all of the extenuating circumstances that tilt it even further in their direction.<br /><br />I could keep going on here. I’ve been meaning to take a more comprehensive look at this for a while, and I still might later. And there are obvious counter-examples, of course; for instance, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml">arguably the best player in the Astros’ history</a> came on them winning a deadline deal like this. But you can’t get too attached to unproven prospects, especially when you’re still trying to win.<br /><br />We could also go on about the process that led to this. After all, the Astros were negotiating with Verlander as a free agent just months ago, and that wouldn’t have required losing prospects. Except several months ago, they were looking at a much deeper, less-injured rotation, while the contract Verlander was asking for was… honestly, probably a little unreasonable. Even as someone who thinks teams should be more willing to cross the luxury tax threshold, it makes perfect sense to me why those talks back then didn’t work out. <br /><br />Of course, things changed, and that depth in the Astros’ rotation slowly disappeared. Meanwhile, Verlander’s deal wound up being for 2 years and $86.7 million deal (3 years and $121.7 with a 2025 option), and in the end, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/mets-trade-justin-verlander-astros.html">the Mets will end up paying over half of that</a> (between the payments they’ve already made and what they’ve committed to covering going forward), which seems much more in-line with the value the Astros can expect from Verlander here. In a perfect world, I probably would have preferred that the Astros take on a bit more money to save on the prospect side, especially if the impetus for that came from the Astros’ ownership. But it’s also possible the Mets wouldn’t have accepted that offer, so until we have confirmation one way or the other, this is all just hypothetical.<br /><br />Yeah, this piece has kind of become a backdoor evaluation of the trade… I think I’ve come down on “It’s a tough pill to swallow, but probably a fair balance of risk and reward given the Astros’ 2023 needs and beyond, and getting Verlander back triggers the warm-fuzzies so the risk feels less bad”. <br /><br /><b><u>BUT!</u></b> You may recall that none of that is why I started writing this piece! So, back to the question: Have the Astros been doing a better-than-expected job at converting young prospects into useful big leaguers? Again, it’s debatable how much looking at the history here matters given that the Dana Brown era is still new and could prove a shift, but trying something is better than just giving up.<br /><br />There are a lot of ways we could look at this problem, but this is the one I came up with: I used Baseball-Reference to search every team over the last ten years and see how many players in their first four seasons put up 1.0 Win Above Replacement or better. I probably could have tweaked these numbers around the edges, but these seemed like the best balance. <br /><br />Four seasons felt like a good quantity to ensure regular turnover in players, as well as limit teams bolstering their numbers by acquiring other team’s developed players (which of course becomes even more common as players hit their arbitration years and get more expensive). And 1 WAR felt like a good balance to use. <br /><br />Stars are important, but I didn’t want to look exclusively at them. You do also need to develop regular starters and bit players, too (not to mention that this helps account for things like late call-ups or the 2020 season). Plus, you probably don’t need to be bringing up stars that frequently; ideally, if you develop a really big star, you lock them up and have them lead the team for more than just their first four years (not to mention that if we’re just focusing on stars, I don’t know that it really matters if you develop them in-house or pick them up via trade or signing; just having them is the important part). But of course, if you want to test any of these assumptions yourself, feel free to tweak my method and share your results! Part of why I’m writing is because I feel like I’ve taken the idea as far as I can for the time being. <br /><br />Okay, so with all of that out of the way, how many Year One-to-Four 1-WAR players did the Astros run each season over the last decade?<br /><br /><br /><style type="text/css">
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<tr>
<th class="tg-j6zm"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Year</span></th>
<th class="tg-j6zm"><span style="font-weight: bold;"># Players</span></th>
<th class="tg-j6zm"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Rank</span></th>
<th class="tg-j6zm"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Players</span></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2023</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 7</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazya02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Yainer Diaz</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccorch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Chas McCormick</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/meyerja02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jake Meyers</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/penaje02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jeremy Peña</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=brownhu01,brown-006hun,brown-007hun,brown-004hun&search=Hunter+Brown&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Hunter Brown</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francjp01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">J.P. France</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/javiecr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Cristian Javier</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2022</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 7</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">7</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Yordan Alvarez</a>, Chas McCormick, Jeremy Peña, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Bryan Abreu</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=garcilu05,garcilu04,garcilu03,garcilu02,garcilu01,garcia032lui,garcia030lui,garcia029lui,garcia028lui,garcia023lui,garcia022lui&search=Luis+Garcia&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Luis Garcia</a>, Cristian Javier, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/urquijo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">José Urquidy</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2021<br /></td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 9</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">1</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawmy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Myles Straw</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Kyle Tucker</a>, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valdefr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Framber Valdez</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2020</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 4</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">3</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Kyle Tucker, Cristian Javier, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scruban01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Andre Scrubb</a>, Framber Valdez</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2019</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 5</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">15</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Yordan Alvarez, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Alex Bregman</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazal02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Aledmys Díaz</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gourryu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Yuli Gurriel</a>, Myles Straw</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2018</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 6</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">12</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Alex Bregman, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Carlos Correa</a>, Yuli Gurriel, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=whitety01,white-009tyl,white-007tyl,white-004tyl&search=Tyler+White&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Tyler White</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcculla02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Lance McCullers Jr.</a>, Framber Valdez</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2017</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 6</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">8</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">George Springer</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/devench02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Chris Devenski</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gileske01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Ken Giles</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2016</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 7</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">4</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gattiev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Evan Gattis</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marisja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jake Marisnick</a>, George Springer, Chris Devenski, Lance McCullers Jr.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2015</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 8</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">4</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Carlos Correa, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Marwin Gonzalez</a>, Jake Marisnick, George Springer, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=harriwi10,harris035wil&search=Will+Harris&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Will Harris</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keuchda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Dallas Keuchel</a>, Lance McCullers Jr., <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mchugco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Collin McHugh</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-8d8j">2014</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j"> 9</td>
<td class="tg-8d8j">3</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jose Altuve</a>, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jason Castro</a>, Marwin Gonzalez, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grossro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Robbie Grossman</a>, Jake Marisnick, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/petitgr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Gregorio Petit</a>, George Springer, Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><br /><br />(Note: All rankings were ties. And 2023 totals are not finalized, obviously.)<br /><br /><br />As you can see, all in all, it’s been a great run! They’ve been in the top half of the league for basically this entire span (you could argue the 2019 team doesn’t count since it was a big seven-way tie for the fifteenth spot, but maybe they deserve the tiebreaker there, since they won 107 games and the AL Pennant), and the top third for everything outside of 2018-19.<br /><br />(And while I’m talking about exceptions, you can also easily see how the 2023 team could be doing even better than it already is; Luis Garcia was well on his way to qualifying before his injury, Yordan only lost his status this year because his true “second” season was that 2-game 2020 campaign, <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sirijo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jose Siri</a> qualifies for the Rays this year and is still eligible next year despite Houston doing a lot of the developmental heavy lifting there… I can’t truly compare all of these exceptions, since I didn't want to do this for every single player on every other single team, but still, I feel like this has to be one of the stronger extra credit cases in the league this year.)<br /><br />So, if you had to guess based on this chart, at which point would you say that, per industry popular perception, the Astros’ farm system took a sharp downturn? I mean, a lot of you reading this might already know, but if all you were going on was the rate that they’ve been churning out young players, there doesn’t really appear to be any end. There was a brief dip around 2019, but as we pointed out, the 2019 team was a juggernaut, in large part because the 2015-2018 crop had graduated out of our rankings without any real need to replace them yet. And besides, we would probably expect a drop in prospect rankings to come <i>before </i>the drop in successful major leaguers, so that would put our dip based on the results somewhere in the 2017-18 range? <br /><br />The answer, of course, is 2020. Going back through the farm system rankings of MLB.com, Fangraphs, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, and others, most of them still had the Astros towards the top going into 2019, while they’ve rarely escaped the 20-to-30 range since then. And if you want to be precise, the 2019 Trade Deadline was the real inflection point. Evaluators universally dropped them after all they gave up there, headlined by the four prospects they sent over Zack Greinke trade; take a moment to refer back to my earlier paragraph on that trade, and see how that ended up.<br /><br />I say that not to dump on the prospect evaluators; it’s a tough job, and misses are to be expected! Instead, I’m saying it to highlight my two key points: <br /><b><br /><br />1) </b>Trading prospects to get established major leaguers is one of the big benefits of having a top-rated farm system; you might lose a deal sometimes, but you’re also losing out if you just hoard them all, given the failure rate of prospects.<br /><br /><b>2) </b>The Astros as of late <i>do </i>seem to have some kind of talent for regularly churning out useful major leaguers, despite predictions to the contrary. <br /><br /><br />There are, of course, ways a team can game this methodology; believe me, I found <i>all </i>of them while looking over my results, you don’t need to bring up counterfactuals. And the results don’t guarantee success or anything; there’s no one way to build a good team. (Actually, if anything, the Astros are bucking the trend here a little; a lot of other strong teams over the last decade have looked more like the 2019 team, falling more towards the middle of the pack following several recent “graduations”.)<br /><br />The individual data points are less interesting than the trends here: the Astros have been <i>consistently </i>at the top of the list (on average, the only team to finish higher up in the ranks than the Astros over the last decade is the Rays), while consistently competing in a way that doesn’t usually guarantee a plethora of spots for newcomers. They’ve been able to produce a strong recurring cast, and they’ve been able to supplement it by filling out the margins of the roster with bit players who provide more than expected.<br /><br />Really, even that “strong recurring class” bit is worth investigating more, because even a lot of the core young stars the Astros have produced the last five years were not the most heralded of their class. Kyle Tucker was routinely rated towards the top of prospect lists for several years; but Yordan Alvarez, in contrast, was rated a consensus top-50 prospect, but more in the 30-50 range, and for only one year. Ditto for Hunter Brown (although Fangraphs was higher on him than their peers for a few years before that). Some evaluators put Jeremy Peña in the top 50 as well, but he was divisive, and some rankings had him more towards the back end of their top 100. <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/urquijo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Jose Urquidy</a> and Yainer Diaz were back-end top-100 guys on a few lists at the end of their prospect tenures, but not all of them.<br /><br />Of course, that leaves Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and J.P. France; none of them appeared on a top 100 prospect list, as best as I can tell? Certainly not one of the major ones that I checked. And despite that, five of them have appeared on this list for two or more of their first four seasons (France is still in his first season, but you can substitute in Myles Straw here, if you want another recent Astros product that fits this pattern).<br /><br />Again, please don’t take this as some “the Astros have cracked player development!” take; they have plenty of failures here, too. <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=whitle000for&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Forrest Whitley</a> was regularly appearing above Kyle Tucker on those prospect lists, and they have plenty of other high-profile flops over the years, from Frances Martes to <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/appelma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">Mark Appel</a> to <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reedaj01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-08-07_br">AJ Reed</a>. <br /><br />All I’m trying to do is point out that the Astros seem to have found a way to avoid letting those flops or limitations (from things like low draft positions or frequent prospect trades) set them back too much when it comes to finding, training, and graduating young talent to the majors. Maybe their frequent front office turnover means this won’t continue forever. But in the meantime, it is giving me some pause in bemoaning yet another round of selling off big-name prospects at the Trade Deadline. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-35770545251580371592023-06-15T02:31:00.005-04:002023-06-15T02:54:49.214-04:00Jose Abreu’s Career Is Even Greater Than the Sum of 1500 Hits<p></p><p>If you were watching Tuesday’s night’s game against the Nationals, you might have caught a neat milestone: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Abreu</a> collected his 1500th career hit (as well as his 1501st, but that one doesn’t end in a 0, so it got a smaller call-out). Abreu is 21st among active Major Leaguers in hits and, at the halfway point to 3000, stands somewhere in the mid-600s all-time. His start with the Astros hasn’t been the best, and while I hope he manages to turn it around, it’s still cool to appreciate a big moment like that!<br /><br />Of course, that also got me thinking… Abreu’s path to the majors has been very non-standard. For those that don’t know, his 2014 Rookie of the Year campaign came at the relatively late age of 27, thanks to Abreu being born in Cuba. In fact, he was a ten-year veteran of the Cuban National Series before defecting after the 2013 World Baseball Classic.</p><p><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />And players like that, with interesting and unique careers, have always fascinated me. I actually wrote about <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2019/09/yuli-gurriel-2019-historic-cuba.html">another one like that a few years ago</a>, Astros’ unlikely batting champ and postseason hero <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gourryu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yuli Gurriel</a>. And before that, I took a deep look at <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hiroki Kuroda</a>, who was <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2017/09/hiroki-kuroda-international-japan-NPB-MLB-Hall-Fame.html">much better than you might remember</a> (or might have ever realized at the time!). <br /><br />I had always thought about doing that for another player down the line, and Abreu always seemed like one of the favorites. So I thought, in honor of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a>’s 1500th hit, why not go back and take a look at his total career? For basically all of this, I’ll be pulling from Baseball-Reference’s extensive library of foreign league stats. <p></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p></p><p>In the Cuban National Series, Abreu debuted with his hometown Elefantes de Cienfuegos back in the 2003-04 season. They were somewhere in the range of middling-to-bad for most of his early career, and Abreu’s first two seasons were similarly fairly rough, sporting OPSes of .674 and .676. However, there are some big caveats there: the CNS is a noted pitchers league, Abreu didn’t really have a set position yet (he mostly played right field, but also spent time at center field and all three bases), and perhaps most importantly, he was only 16 when the season started. So what if the offense he later became noted for was still in its early stages? We can’t really calculate a comprehensive WAR for this time, but it’s still possible that he was a net neutral just based on his defense and versatility. <br /><br />From there, though, he began to settle in. He more or less solidified as a right fielder who could flex to third base, and his OPS jumped up to .961 in the 2005-06 campaign. It would drop to a still-solid .830 the next year, and then climb back to .992 in 2007-2008. 2008-09 saw him improve a little more, crossing the 1.000 OPS mark for the first time, and he finished in the top ten in the Series in both slugging (.630) and home runs (19). <br /><br />It’s worth reiterating that this big breakout 08-09 year, Abreu’s sixth in Cuba, was still only his age 21 season. Cienfuegos was still splitting him between right and first base, but would move him to first full time for the 2009-10 campaign, although I’m not sure if that was decided before the season or just something that happened naturally as it went along. Either way, the subsequent 2009-10 season was also the year where he first looked like the phenom who would have MLB teams salivating in five years. <br /><br />That season, Abreu became the clear best player in the CNS. He would post a 1.376 OPS, meaning that his improvement from 2008-09 to 2009-10 was even bigger than his improvement from his debut at age 16 to 2008. He would lead the league in OBP and slugging, and fell just 5 points short of the batting title, giving him an overall triple slash line of .399/.555/.822. He also finished second in home runs (30) and eighth in RBI (76).<br /><br />Abreu would follow that up by actually winning the Triple Slash Crown the following two seasons, hitting .453/.597/.986 in 2010-11 and .394/.542/.837 in 2011-12. He also led the league in homers the first of those seasons (33), but fell 6 RBI short of a traditional triple crown at 93 (the second season, he finished second in both, at 35 and 99); despite that, he was still named the league MVP in 2011. His 2012-13 campaign was less overwhelming than those two seasons, “only” leading the league in homers (19), but he still finished second in slugging (.617) and landed in the top ten in average, OBP, and RBI. Again, despite this strong resume, at this point, Jose Abreu was still only 25!<br /><br />After a strong performance for Team Cuba at the 2013 World Baseball Classic, Abreu defected, and ended up sitting out 2013 (which would have been his age 26 season) in hopes of signing with an MLB team. That wound up being the Chicago White Sox, although <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/10/16/4845848/mlb-rumors-jose-abreu-white-sox-astros-rangers-cuba">the Astros surprised a lot of people at the time by finishing second in the sweepstakes</a> despite coming off their third straight 100-loss season. Reflecting on that, it’s a weird alternative universe to consider: just think about the past decade, but a version where Abreu arrived more or less right in time with the Astros’ ascendancy to their current preeminent status. Either way, Abreu immediately debuted at the MLB level in 2014 (he still hasn’t played in a minor league game) and won the Rookie of the Year award, and you know the rest.<br /><br />So let’s go back to those Cuba numbers again. It’s easy for me to rattle off stats for a foreign league, but it can be hard to appreciate. The CNS is just a different environment, after all. What about if we normalized it, in a way similar to OPS+? We can’t account for park factors (from what I can tell at a glance, Cienfuegos seemed fairly neutral?), but calculations that compare it to a league-average 100 baseline are easy enough.<br /><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh35FSSjIM4DIKPs_8lFhVZNAMvzHIfQlCHc52-eeWUk_Ezd3jJgZpuwtmHlsxGwZMdQOJVu7sCI73_ojWj_Fmy3Ln_8uZozW3wDh-4EKZatuplkjho_HIJvsWY_BIEC0SaUDR3iJPveVF8xdcwI8_tejm148Z84wRITo4DgHDw4GcFzCmaTwHOkuZEfg/s1619/Jose%20Abreu%20Cuban%20Stats.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1619" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh35FSSjIM4DIKPs_8lFhVZNAMvzHIfQlCHc52-eeWUk_Ezd3jJgZpuwtmHlsxGwZMdQOJVu7sCI73_ojWj_Fmy3Ln_8uZozW3wDh-4EKZatuplkjho_HIJvsWY_BIEC0SaUDR3iJPveVF8xdcwI8_tejm148Z84wRITo4DgHDw4GcFzCmaTwHOkuZEfg/w400-h124/Jose%20Abreu%20Cuban%20Stats.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /><br /><br />With that context, that four-year run at the end is even more eye-popping. A four year stretch where you are, at worst, twice as good as a league-average hitter? A peak OPS+ of <b><i>276??</i></b> Sure, the Cuban National Series isn’t as high a level of talent as MLB, but knock 80 points off of those years and you’re still looking at, like, peak <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a>-type numbers. Knock 100 off and he looks a bit like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yordan Alvarez</a> at those ages. In that context, it makes sense that even after his year off from competitive play, Abreu was still able to come back and immediately lead the AL with a 173 OPS+. <br /><br />Add it all together, and you’ve got an Abreu that has played in 2108 games, and totaled (as of the morning of 6/15/23) 2388 hits, 476 doubles, 425 homers, 1480 RBI, and a .306/.388/.538 slash line. And sure, there are a whole lot of caveats there, but they do cut both ways; Abreu wouldn’t have debuted nearly as early if he could have signed with an MLB team from the start, but he also would not have been left to put up OPSes well over 1.000 in minor league half seasons or miss the entire 2013 season, either. <br /><br />It seems realistic to guess that he might have arrived at the same time as, say, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-06-15_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a>? That lines up age-wise at least, and it certainly makes sense that he would be ahead of them in both hits and homers. And for added context, McCutchen was the league MVP in 2013, the year before Abreu got to debut, so it’s hardly unthinkable that he might have missed out on some really good years in that missing stretch.<br /><br />I don’t know that there’s a larger point at this moment. I don’t think that Abreu’s career is quite finished yet (Wednesday night’s game raised his wRC+ by 8 full points!), so anything that tries to wrap it all up right now is going to wind up incomplete. So let’s just leave it here for now, as a greater, more comprehensive appreciation for a player who has already had an extremely unique career, one that many people might not have fully noticed because of all of its quirks. </p><p><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="f85f0ad96c"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form> <br /><p></p>Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-17725238687885803532023-04-12T21:33:00.002-04:002023-04-12T21:33:28.211-04:00Some Thoughts on the New Rule Changes We’ve got <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/4/12/23673699/the-starting-nine-discusses-the-rule-changes-in-major-league-baseball">a new Starting Nine up over at The Crawfish Boxes</a>, once again featuring yours truly! The topic of this one is our early impressions on the new rule changes, including the pitch clock and shift bans. So far, I generally think there's a lot to like about them, but I do have a few slightly more complicated thoughts about them as well, as does everyone else. Go check it out if you have a minute!Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-72872495083293906482023-03-30T23:47:00.003-04:002023-03-30T23:47:56.923-04:002023 Astros Predictions at The Crawfish Boxes!I hope everyone had a good Opening Day! <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/3/30/23657312/the-starting-nine-predicts-the-astros-2023-season">Once again, I participated in The Crawfish Boxes’ Annual Astros Pre-Season Predictions</a>. I have to say, making these predictions is much better coming off a World Series win than a loss; it kind of makes it feel like you’re playing with house money this year. It looks like the AL West will be a little tougher for Houston in 2023 than the last few years, but they’re still a really good team, and I’m expecting another big year from them!<br /><br /><br />Anyway, Opening Day was a tough loss, but given that Dylan Cease was almost the Cy Young winner last year, it’s at least understandable. Hopefully they can come back strong this weekend and take the first series of the year!Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-81839677773746166362023-03-29T22:49:00.003-04:002023-03-29T22:53:57.122-04:00Comparing and Contrasting the Braves' Rebuild<p>Last year while I was writing <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/08/2022-trade-deadline-orioles-trey-mancini.html">my article on the Orioles' Trade Deadline</a>, I dug up <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2018/03/is-tanking-best-strategy-rebuilding-astros-cubs.html">an older piece of mine</a> with an interesting opinion that I wanted to dig into a little bit when I had more time. I ended up sort of looking into it at the end of the 2022 season, and slowly plugging away at it in between playoff stuff and Hall of Fame stuff and all of the other offseason writings that I did. I wanted to post it a little earlier in the offseason, but ended up having to reflect on some of it a little more and then push it back. I think it’s finally to a good place though, and getting it up before the start of the season seems like a good idea! <br /><br />It’s sort of a companion piece to <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/search/label/2022%20Orioles%20Rebuild%20Series">that mini-series I did last year looking at the Orioles’ Rebuild</a>, this time approaching the question from a different angle. For background, in the back-half of the 2010s, it seemed like there were a lot of teams who were trying to copy off the Astros’ and Cubs’ strategies of a full teardown and rebuild, and I thought in the moment that maybe some of those decisions were a little premature; the Astros and Cubs were notably devoid of talent in both the majors and minors prior to their complete rebuilds.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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formkit-bouncedelay-formkit-form-data-uid-427f69e8df-{0%,80%,100%{-webkit-transform:scale(0);-ms-transform:scale(0);transform:scale(0);}40%{-webkit-transform:scale(1);-ms-transform:scale(1);transform:scale(1);}}@keyframes formkit-bouncedelay-formkit-form-data-uid-427f69e8df-{0%,80%,100%{-webkit-transform:scale(0);-ms-transform:scale(0);transform:scale(0);}40%{-webkit-transform:scale(1);-ms-transform:scale(1);transform:scale(1);}}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] blockquote{padding:10px 20px;margin:0 0 20px;border-left:5px solid #e1e1e1;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .seva-custom-content{padding:15px;font-size:16px;color:#fff;mix-blend-mode:difference;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-modal.guard{max-width:420px;width:100%;} .formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"]{max-width:700px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] [data-style="clean"]{width:100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-fields{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:0 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 0 15px 0;-webkit-flex:1 0 100%;-ms-flex:1 0 100%;flex:1 0 100%;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-powered-by-convertkit-container{margin:0;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"] .formkit-submit{position:static;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] [data-style="clean"],.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] [data-style="clean"]{padding:10px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"],.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"]{margin-left:-5px;margin-right:-5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />I feel like that gets lost in a lot of these discussions on “tanking”; go back and look at those 2010 and 2011 Cubs and Astros teams. Both had spent several years stuck in neutral at the bottom of the NL Central. The 2011 Astros’ best players were a pair of very-good-but-not-great outfielders (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pencehu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hunter Pence</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bournmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Michael Bourn</a>) who were a year and a half from free agency, and another 35-year-old “left fielder” who really looked like he should have been at first base (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leeca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Lee</a>). The Cubs, meanwhile, were relying on their 21-year-old shortstop <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Starlin Castro</a> to bolster their core of… 33-year-old corner infielders <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=penaca01,pena--016car,pena--014car,pena--013car&search=Carlos+Pena&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Peña</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirar01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aramis Ramirez</a>. Their aces on these teams were <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=myersbr01,myers-003bre&search=Brett+Myers&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brett Myers</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garzama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Garza</a>, respectively. <br /><br />Those cores would <b><i>maybe </i></b>barely work, were all those players at their peaks, with very strong supporting casts and the potential for star prospects to bolster them down the stretch. None of that describes the rest of those teams, which were thin at the top and regularly ranked in the bottom third of Farm System rankings (with the Astros even picking up several last place finishes). Their drafting and player development was atrocious, Houston’s especially; Baseball-Reference’s has the Astros’ first round draft picks from 1999 to 2009 worth a combined 11.9 WAR for their careers, a number overwhelming supported by <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jason Castro</a>’s 12.4 total (plus <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jordan Lyles</a>’s 1.0 mark last season, the third-best year of his career).* Feel free to do the math on everyone else there, it’s pretty bad! That wasn’t the only factor in their lack of success obviously, but it’s a pretty good representation of the larger failure going on.<br /><br /><i>*The Cubs during that stretch look a lot less disastrous; it still wasn’t fantastic, but other clubs with similar records could turn it into strong minor league systems, with things like successful later picks, international signings, trades, or player development. The Cubs… did not do any of that.</i><br /><br />All of that is to say: when the Cubs and Astros decided to do their total teardowns, there was a very clear logic behind it. Long gone were the early-to-mid 2000s glory days, of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lance Berkman</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oswalro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roy Oswalt</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leede02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Derrek Lee</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zambrca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Zambrano</a>, and the window on the late-2000s inglorious days of Carlos Peña and Carlos Lee seemed to be closing rapidly. But despite how much the teams sold off, every trade made sense; most pieces being sent out were some combination of aging, not great, or rapidly nearing free agency on a bad team. It’s part of why the 2018 Orioles made sense following their path, given their atrocious record, neglected minor league rosters, and a major league roster consisting of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a> (in his final season before free agency) and a bunch of question marks.<br /><br />However, that scenario did not describe every team going for a rebuild in subsequent years, and I think my general sense that too many teams in the late 2010s were going for that strategy has held up. Sure, some of them fit that Astros/Cubs mold: for instance, the Phillies under <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=amaroru02,amaroru01&search=Ruben+Amaro&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ruben Amaro</a> Jr. had been ineptly patching an aging roster for years up until 2015, and it had all fallen apart. Or the Tigers, who had seen a lot of their roster suddenly start to look very old come 2017. You’re always going to have a few cases like that, teams that went all-in on an aging core or something and stretched themselves thin (and sometimes it even works, like with the 2019 Nationals!).<br /><br />But that clearly couldn’t describe over 20% of the league, like I called out in that original 2018 piece that I linked to, especially not when teams with win totals in the high-80s could still be in playoff contention (in fact, 2017 had just seen Wild Card teams with 87 and 85 wins). And I was arguably even playing it safe and just going with teams that were unambiguously already in the middle of a rebuild, and not teams that were just about to enter one (like the Orioles and Rangers), or the more muddled edge cases (like the Pirates and Royals).<br /><br />Take the Marlins for instance, who famously traded a stellar young outfield of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yelicch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Christian Yelich</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcell Ozuna</a> rather than do literally anything to reinforce that core beyond hoping their draft pick lottery tickets all suddenly became All-Stars at once. Or the White Sox, who dealt their two top, all-star level starters rather than bump up their middle-of-the-pack payroll even slightly while playing in baseball’s weakest division. <br /><br />But there’s one team from that group that stood out. All of the teams I called out back then finished 2018 in a manner exactly as uninspiring as predicted… except for the Braves. And of course, ignoring the eventual end result of the 2021 World Series and looking only at where things stood at that moment, I absolutely understand why I included the Braves here. <br /><br />Going into the 2014 season, the Braves were coming off of four straight seasons where they averaged 92.5 wins and made the playoffs three of four times. They had a young, homegrown core of stars, and things looked bright. Sure, their playoff runs had been short (two Division Series losses and one Wild Card Game loss), but October is pretty random, so just making it to the playoffs seemed like the thing to focus on.<br /><br />And then, they mildly underperformed in 2014, going 79-83. Granted, that was still second in the middling NL East, and they still had their young core, so it wasn’t hard to predict a possible rebound. Except… Atlanta didn’t do that. Instead, they sold off a ton of talent, including <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Upton</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Kimbrel</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gattiev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Gattis</a>. It might be easy to forget given that we’re nearly a decade removed at this point, but back in 2014, that was half of their eight best players (by Baseball-Reference WAR), and they ranged in age from 27 (Gattis) to 24 (Heyward). The team took a corresponding tumble, going 67-95 in 2015. <br /><p></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p><br />Regardless of what you thought of the Cubs and Astros’ complete teardowns, they very clearly did not sell off that quantity of talent, let alone youth (Bourn and Pence, for instance, were already 28 and 29 when they were dealt). And the Braves would keep going from there, dealing <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Wood</a>, and their lone 2015 All-Star <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shelby Miller</a> before the start of the next season (all of whom were 25 or 26), as well as a host of other veterans. And there were rumors of <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/11/16/atlanta-braves-freddie-freeman-trade-rumors">further trades</a>, possibly involving <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Freddie Freeman</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Teheran</a>, and recent-signing <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nick Markakis</a>, although nothing ultimately came to pass. They were in for two more years of 90 or more losses, which brings us right to that 2018 pre-season and the article I linked in the beginning, where I said they had given up too soon. <br /><br />The other “rebuilding” teams I mentioned there have had a pretty rough track record since that point. The Tigers are still yet to record a winning season post-2016. The Marlins and Reds technically have playoff appearances, after both going 31-29 in the 2020 season, but that’s looking a lot like a fluke from a strange year as both franchises muddle around. <br /><br />The Phillies finally notched a winning season (barely, at 82-80) in 2021, and finally ended the major’s second-longest playoff drought last season after four years idling around .500. Even the White Sox and Padres are a little rough; both would take until 2020 to register a winning season. Chicago made the 2021 playoffs but were knocked out right away by the Astros, and took a step backwards last year. San Diego would miss the postseason in 2021 after a collapse, but they at least bounced back in 2022.*<br /><br /><i>*This is one of the parts of the article that I started with, prior to the end of the 2022 regular season, and I needed to go back and edit the parts about the Phillies and Padres following the postseason. Maybe it’s just a bias based on their recent performance, but it seems notable that the two biggest success stories from this bunch, even lumping in some of the edge cases, are the ones that have also chosen to heavily invest in bringing in top free agent targets and trade targets.</i><br /><br />The Braves, meanwhile, have matched all six of those teams combined in that same stretch: they’ve made the postseason every single year, with five division titles in five years, at least two NLCS appearances, and a World Series title. So what did they do differently?<br /><br />Well, most notably, some of their best 2020s players were already in the Braves’ system: Freddie Freeman was already on the Braves, while <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/acunaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ronald Acuña Jr.</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/albieoz01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ozzie Albies</a> were signed as international free agents in 2014 and ‘13, respectively. They have that in common with those 2010s Astros, who had players like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Altuve</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keuchda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dallas Keuchel</a> in their minors even at the beginning of their rebuild. And a lot of the success of a rebuild like this is going to come down to having good scouting and player development, which is a little harder for us to evaluate as outsiders. <br /><br />Like, I can notice the Braves’ success with homegrown talent over this era; they clearly have a lot! I can even point out specific shorthands to emphasize that; for instance, look at their first picks from the 2015 to 2017 era; <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rileyau01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Austin Riley</a> has been a star, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=wrighky01,wright005kyl&search=Kyle+Wright&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kyle Wright</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sorokmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Michael Soroka</a> have had strong years, and plenty of other first-round picks have been dealt in useful trades. But none of that really tells us what <i>specifically </i>they’re doing better than other teams (Is it a different philosophy? More info? Just better decision-makers? Something else?), and “develop players better” or “get better at scouting” feels like hollow advice without those specifics.<br /><br />So let’s go back and look at the other stuff, then. What did their dismantling look like that they managed to minimize their rebound time like that? Were they making especially canny trades? Did they get big returns for shipping off their stars early? Did they do a good job of picking up undervalued prospects and future stars? Was it something else entirely? Let’s take a look:<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>The 2015 Season (and before)</u></b><br /><br />As I mentioned earlier, this was the start of the process. Atlanta underperformed in 2014, finishing in a tie for second in the NL East by four games under .500 and 17.0 games out of first place. In response, starting that offseason, they:<br /><br /><br /><u>-Traded Jason Heyward and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=waldejo01,walden003jor,walden002jor&search=Jordan+Walden&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jordan Walden</a> to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenkity01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tyrell Jenkins<br /></a></u><br />Heyward was their best player in 2014 and would go on to an All-Star season in 2015, but was going to be a free agent in just one more season. I think that was also the case with Walden, although he signed an extension to cover the next two years in St. Louis (despite never throwing a pitch in the majors or minors after 2015 due to injuries). <br /><br />In return, Jenkins would only throw 52.0 innings in the majors, but Miller would go on to have an All-Star season in Atlanta, and he was still under contract for a few more years. All in all, this by itself is a very good trade, one young all-star for another, but there was also more to it (we’ll return here in a minute when we get there, though).<br /><br /><u><br />-Traded Evan Gattis and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoytja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">James Hoyt</a> to the Astros for Andrew Thurman, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/foltymi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Foltynewicz</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruizri01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rio Ruiz</a>. <br /></u><br />Gattis would play four seasons with Houston and retire after becoming a free agent (before the 2019 season). Hoyt had 2+ middling years in the Houston bullpen.<br /><br />In exchange, Foltynewicz gave them 5+ seasons, one of which was an all-star level, three of which were unimpressive, one of which was him still developing, and one of which was an injury-wrecked 3.1 inning season. He made four unimpressive playoff starts, and has also been virtually out of the game since becoming a free agent. Ruiz never broke through, and Thurman never even made the majors. Again, at the worst, this looks like getting back at least what they gave up. Not a huge steal or anything, but Foltynewicz helped get them to the playoffs a few times, and had one really good year.<br /><br /><br /><u>-Traded Justin Upton and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/northaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Northcraft</a> to the Padres for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/friedma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Fried</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peterdu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dustin Peterson</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peterja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jace Peterson</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithma05.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mallex Smith</a><br />Traded <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">B.J. Upton</a> and Craig Kimbrel to the Padres for Jordan Paroubeck, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maybica01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cameron Maybin</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quentca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Quentin</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wislema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Wisler</a>, and a Competitive Balance pick in the draft.</u><br /><br />Like Heyward, Justin Upton was due to become a free agent after the year. He also had an All-Star season in San Diego. Kimbrel was in the same contract status, but his 2015 was a noticeable step back from his Braves level and he wouldn't make the All-Star team. B.J. Upton was a salary dump of a bad contract, although he would rebound to a playable level with the Padres. Northcraft was negligible. <br /><br />Of their return, Quentin was cut before the season (a salary dump to match B.J.); Maybin had a mediocre year and was dealt the next winter for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/krolia01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ian Krol</a> and Gabe Speier; Paroubeck never reached the majors; Smith, Wisler, and the Petersons all had minimal impact… But Fried <b>more </b>than makes up for all of that. This is a definite win, turning one All-Star season into multiple years of an ace. <br /><br />And that Competitive Balance Pick wound up turning into the 41st overall pick in 2015, which they used on Austin Riley. That’s definitely another win, although it feels more conditional; like, would they have gotten another chance at him later without that pick? Or would they have used an earlier pick on him if they didn’t have it? That wasn’t even their first compensation pick that year, since they also got one for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ervin Santana</a> leaving in free agency. And they still had to do the work of scouting and training him, which are some of the things I’m trying to avoid evaluating. It was definitely necessary for the Braves here, but maybe less of a guideline for any other teams looking to copy their strategy.<br /><br /><br />They continued making trades during the 2015 season, including but not limited to:<br /><br /><u>-Traded <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gosseph01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Phil Gosselin</a> to the Diamondbacks for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arroybr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bronson Arroyo</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/toussto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Touki Toussaint</a><br />-Traded <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kelly Johnson</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uribeju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Juan Uribe</a> to the Mets for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gantjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">John Gant</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whalero01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rob Whalen</a><br /><br /></u>Two trades of utility players (one of whom, Uribe, they acquired in a different small trade a few weeks before). Arroyo (who would miss the rest of the season from injury before becoming a free agent) was a salary dump to get Toussaint, who had been a first round pick the year before. Gant would be used in an upcoming trade.<br /><br /><br /><u>-Traded <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=johnsch05,johnso025chr,johnso026chr&search=Chris+Johnson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chris Johnson</a> to Cleveland for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=swishni01,swishe002nic&search=Nick+Swisher&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nick Swisher</a> and Michael Bourn</u> <br /><br />Johnson had come over with Justin Upton and been signed to a big extension after a hot start, but he had fallen off, making this a swap of bloated contracts. The Braves would release both Swisher and Bourn eventually. <br /><br /><br /><u>-A big three-team trade with the Dodgers and Marlins, which saw the Braves lose Arroyo, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=johnsji04,johnsji03&search=Jim+Johnson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Johnson</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/avilalu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Avilán</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=perazjo01,peraza006jos&search=José+Peraza&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Peraza</a>, and Alex Wood, in exchange for Zachary Bird, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/olivehe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Héctor Olivera</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrist02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Paco Rodríguez</a>, and a competitive balance round pick. </u><br /><br />Most of this deal was a bust. Olivera was a salary dump to match Arroyo, and Johnson would underperform in the Dodgers bullpen. The three biggest things of interest were Wood having some good years in L.A., Avilán becoming an adequate middle reliever out west, and the Braves using their extra draft pick on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wentzjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joey Wentz</a> (who they would trade for reliever <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greensh02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shane Greene</a> in 2019). The number of moving parts here far exceeds the actual value swapped, but Wood probably swings this out of Atlanta’s favor.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>After the 2015 Season</u></b><br /><br />As mentioned, 2015 was a rough, 95-loss year and fourth-place finish for the Braves. How did they respond?<br /><br /><br /><u>-Traded Andrelton Simmons and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bricejo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Briceño</a> to the Angels for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aybarer01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Erick Aybar</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellisch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chris Ellis</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/newcose01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sean Newcomb</a><br /></u><br />Simmons would go on to have several great seasons with the Angels before hitting the wall. Aybar would not wait at all before hitting the wall, with the Braves dumping him on Detroit before the end of the season. Newcomb had a few good years and a few bad years in the Atlanta bullpen, and Ellis was mostly notable for being paired with the aforementioned John Gant in a trade. This is a pretty unambiguous loss for Atlanta. <br /><br /><br /><u>-Traded Shelby Miller and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/speiega01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gabe Speier</a> to the Diamondbacks for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swansda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dansby Swanson</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/inciaen01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ender Inciarte</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blairaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Blair</a></u><br /><br />In contrast, this was a pretty clear win for Atlanta, selling high on Miller to Arizona in an era where their front office often looked overmatched. Miller would throw 139 innings of 6.35 ERA ball over three years for the D-backs before they let him go; his collapse made what already looked like an overpay turn into a complete looting. Inciarte was already a Gold Glove-level outfielder coming off a 5-WAR season, and he would continue that production. Swanson had just been picked first overall in the draft six months earlier, and while his development was maybe a little slow compared to some first overall picks, it did eventually happen.<br /> <br /><br />The 2016 Braves would lose 93 games and finish last in the NL East, firing <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzafr99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fredi González</a> and bringing in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snitkbr99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brian Snitker</a> to manage during the season. The big sell-off basically ended there. From then on, they’d make a few small veteran signings for next season like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">R.A. Dickey</a>. They flipped Tyrell Jenkins (from way back in the Heyward trade) for reliever <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=jackslu01,jackso007luk,jackso004luk&search=Luke+Jackson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luke Jackson</a>, who ended up being a big part of the 2021 Championship Team after they fixed him up (although they would release and then re-sign him in 2018, so it was a little less straightforward than it seems). And they’d trade Gant and Ellis to St. Louis for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=garcija02,garcia006jai&search=Jaime+Garcia&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jaime Garcia</a> (in his final year before free agency). When the 2017 team turned out pretty middling, they flipped Garcia to Minnesota for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/ynoahu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Huascar Ynoa</a> (who also ended up in that 2021 bullpen, albeit mostly in a “last man in the bullpen” role).<br /><br />And… that was basically the end of the Braves’ rebuild. That 2017-18 offseason would be mostly quiet, with their biggest free agent signing being <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aníbal Sánchez</a> (who would give them one very good season) and their most notable trade being another mutual salary dump with the Dodgers (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=kempma01,kemp--003mat&search=Matt+Kemp&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Kemp</a> for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/culbech01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Charlie Culberson</a>, Adrián González, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Kazmir</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccarbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brandon McCarthy</a>). In spite of that, the Braves would win 90 games in 2018, taking the NL East crown by finishing 8.0 games ahead of the Nationals. Their return to the playoffs wouldn’t be super dramatic (they lost in the division series to the Dodgers), but it did mark the start of their current five-year (and counting) string of postseason appearances, obviously including their 2021 title.<br /><br /><br /><u><br /><b>Trying to Build a Conclusion</b></u><br /><br />So, what can we take away from all of this? Were the Braves right to do their big tear-down when they did? How much did it lead to their eventual title? Obviously, the answer for them is “you don’t change anything and risk the 2021 season playing out differently”, but we’re not really asking this for them, we’re asking them for prospective teams looking to emulate them. <br /><br />And… I don’t know? The thing that stands out is that a lot of biggest parts in 2021 aren’t affected here, between free agents (e.g. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=mortoch02,mortoch01&search=Charlie+Morton&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Charlie Morton</a>), guys that they already had at the start of the rebuild and held onto (e.g. Freddie Freeman), or guys that they picked up later in trades when they were already winning (e.g. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jorge Soler</a>). And draft picks made during this time feel like a whole other issue, since it’s not like we can re-run them. Like, a better Braves team doesn’t get to pick third overall in 2016, but what if that means swapping <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=anderia01,anders002ian&search=Ian+Anderson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ian Anderson</a> for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=smithwi04,smithwi05,smith-088wil,smith-091wil,smith-086wil&search=Will+Smith&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Will Smith</a>, or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynobr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bryan Reynolds</a>, or something like that? Scouting and player development does kind of remain the black box here, and I don’t want my conclusion to just be “be good at those things, and your rebuild goes fine”.<br /><br />The Justin Upton-Max Fried trade is a clear win, no two ways about it; one year of a good player for several years of a star. They kind of lost the Simmons and Wood trades, though, giving up multiple good years of players for not very much. The Evan Gattis trade seems like a lateral move. The Kimbrel trade is a win, but mostly for how they used the draft pick rather than any player they actually acquired.<br /><br />The Heyward is though to evaluate, getting a good season and not much else from Miller in exchange for a star in his walk year… <i>except </i>that they could flip Miller to Arizona for a ton of value (although even this ties back into the player-development side; <i>would </i>Miller have struggled like that in Atlanta, did Arizona somehow screw him up, was it something else?). Of course, I’m not sure most rebuilding teams now can count on being able to shake-down teams for bonus value like the Braves did to the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewada01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dave Stewart</a>/<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larusto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-29_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tony La Russa</a>-led Diamondbacks.* Still, even if that second trade disappears, I think a second good year from Miller would have probably made it feel like a fine deal.<br /><i><br />*My memory from 2015 was that everyone immediately called it a massive overpay at best, and <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/reactions-to-the-shelby-miller-trade.html">that memory seems largely correct</a>. Like, it’s not every day that you get a lopsided trade, let alone one so bad that people are calling it out as such the day it happens. You just have to take those offers when they come up, I think.<br /></i><br />The thing I’m noticing in those trades is that the ones that went best (outside of the D-backs one) were the ones where the player the Braves lost was about to be a free agent. The more years of a player they were giving up, the more uncertainty they were getting in return. I don’t know if that’s because the packages they went for in these specific cases were riskier, or if it’s something inherent to that type of trade, or if it was just random luck, but it’s there nonetheless. And sure, it’s not like Simmons or Wood would have stuck around until their 2021 win, or made them a winning team from 2015 through 2017… but I’m sure the team would have been slightly better to watch with them those years, and it wouldn’t have deprived them of anything they needed for 2021, either. And honestly, given how the trades went as-is, they might have been better off holding onto them a little longer, given that the players traded with fewer years remaining seem to have gotten better returns too?<br /><br />Either way, this doesn’t seem to be the primary thing driving the rebuilding cycle, even in cases like the Braves’ where they were theoretically selling early. As a fan, though… if even teams like the Braves struggle when selling players earlier, I’d probably generally prefer if my team holds off on selling specific young players who aren’t hitting free agency within the next year, maybe two. Exceptions can be made for overpays, but really make them wow you with their offer. <br /><br />And like the Astros, the Braves definitely stopped selling earlier than people seem to think they did, and shift into more of a buying mindset before a lot of people thought they were ready (although the Braves’ pre-2018 buys were a little more modest, they were bringing in players before 2018, buying at the 2018 Trade Deadline, and going harder in the free agent market the following winter). That’s probably the best takeaway, for anyone hoping their struggling team follows this model. <br /><br />I’d be interested if anyone can think of another case like this, where a team moved multiple young players with several years of control remaining earlier than necessary, to use as a point of comparison to the Braves. Especially since there’s just some info we’re never going to get, like why they moved the players they did; it wasn’t a <i>complete </i>sell-off after all, just most of one. And we haven’t really dug into some of the deeper questions beneath all of this, like how much a few more years of good players where you lose anyway is worth, to both fans and the team, especially if those there doesn’t wind up being that much extra payoff for letting them go earlier.<br /><br />Right now, I think Atlanta might have sold a little harder and sooner than they needed to? Although they were good enough at every other part of rebuilding, not to mention that trades of non-walk-year players are such a small part of the process anyway, that it didn’t matter all that much. It’s something to keep in mind for future teams looking to them for inspiration, though. </p><p><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><p></p><p></p>Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-83116208105804097832023-03-28T04:55:00.003-04:002023-03-28T04:55:36.247-04:00Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame, 2023 Edition Bonus Update: Closers<p>A few years ago, I decided to take a crack at applying my <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/p/future-hall-of-fame-series.html">Future Hall of Fame methodology</a> to Closers. Unlike with starting pitchers or position players, Wins Above Replacement traditionally doesn’t seem to line up with how Hall views relief pitchers. However, I found that Win Probability Added does a pretty good job of matching the voters, and went with that instead. For those who aren’t as familiar, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/win-probability-added">Win Probability Added</a> (WPA) is a context-sensitive value stat. A home run will basically count the same in WAR whether it happens in the first or ninth inning, but WPA is based on the real-time in-game probability of a team winning, and credits or debits the player with how much each of their actions swings those odds in their team’s favor. <br /><br />With <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a> <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/scott-rolen-2023-hall-of-fame-election.html">looking like a strong bet to make the Hall in 2024 or 2025</a>, I thought this offseason might be an interesting time to revisit my closer predictions. You know, maybe take a look at which relievers could be following in his footsteps, especially since the role seems to be in a period of transition at the moment.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />It was supposed to be a pretty easy process; there hasn’t been a new closer inducted since the last time I did this in 2019 (following the inductions of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithle02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lee Smith</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mariano Rivera</a>), so I shouldn’t need to do that much to update it. But after checking my results from last time I ran into some issues… I really don’t know how to explain it, but my numbers were just wrong. I have no idea how it happened, but the numbers don’t seem to line-up with anything. I tried a few things, referring to my notes and even reaching out to Baseball-Reference to see if they had changed anything in their site’s calculations, but I couldn’t recreate the results despite several attempts. <br /><br />Weirdly, though, the methodology was still right? I tried it again after re-calculating every number, and I was basically getting the same players in the same order, with relatively strong correlations to Hall voting. It was just… the WPA totals and Hall odds were different from what I had last time. I suppose I could just wait until Wagner gets inducted, since that would require a total re-calculation anyway, but I wanted to publish the corrected numbers at least once before then. <br /><br />I’m using the same basic framework as my <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/03/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2023-edition.html">Hitters</a> and <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/03/future-hall-of-fame-pitchers-2023-edition.html">Starting Pitchers</a> article, here: looking at the WPA for Hall of Fame closers by age to build a median trendline, then looking at how players above that line at each age have fared in eventual Hall elections. If you need a more detailed explanation, you can check out either of those examples and such. <br /><br />However, one big difference that I would like to expand on here: there just isn’t a large sample size of closers in the Hall to work off of, which is a big deal since this method is built off of precedence. There are currently 8 pitchers who qualify here, so each one has an outsized impact on our results. <br /><br />Like, a quarter of our cases are <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheho01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hoyt Wilhelm</a> (a knuckleballer who didn’t debut until age 29 but pitched for 21 seasons) and Dennis Eckerlsey (who spent the first decade of his career as a starter), each of whom is extremely unique. Each additional electee is going to significantly shift our standard here, and given the ways the role has changed so radically in its short lifespan, it is important not to get too attached to these numbers, and to remain flexible in your considerations of what a Hall Closer looks like. This method just isn’t as strong as the one for Position Players or Starting Pitchers.<br /><br />For similar reasons, I’m going to be going in a slightly different order for this one. I usually like to start with younger stars and end with the older ones, because that way keeps the more interesting and unusual names at the top of the discussion but allows me to end on longer write-ups of stronger candidates who will be facing the ballot sooner.<br /><br />In comparison, everything about closers feels less certain; stars regularly appear out of nowhere or suddenly flame out, the standard progression is kind of ridiculous and barely feels like a realistic guideline (more on that later), and to top it all off, we barely even know what Hall voters want beyond “A lot of saves, most of the time”. So instead, I’ll just start with the most veteran names and kind of work backward. There really aren’t any overwhelming favorites here anyway, so we might as well start with the most interesting discussions.<br /><br />Also, as a note, when I refer to a player’s age, I’m generally referring to last season; if I’m instead using their 2023 age, I’ll try to make it obvious. Now then, let’s queue up that entrance music and see what we’ve got!<br /><br /><span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><br /><br /><b><u>The Leaders</u></b><br /><br /><b>Overall: 30.65 WPA Median; 100% of all players at this mark elected</b><br /><br />Right now, there are only five closers who are even halfway to the career median for Hall of Fame Closers, so we’ll start with them. <br /><br />The current active leader in WPA among relief pitchers is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/janseke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kenley Jansen</a>, which is actually a bit of a turn-around that’s happened here recently (more on that in a minute). Right now, heading into his age 35 season, Jansen is at 25.6 Win Probability Added, so making that last 5 WPA is probably out of the question for 2023 (Jansen has only ever had one season on that level, back in 2017). It’s plausible with two back-to-back good and healthy seasons, but three years might be the more reasonable scenario. <br /><br />And for those unfamiliar with WPA, it can go negative like WAR, but it’s much less stable year-to-year, so you can build up a big negative very quickly (especially in a role like closer, which is inherently tied to big swings in win probability). So this mark isn’t something Jansen can limp to, even by just being average; he’s got to remain at least competent through his age 36 or 37 season (and then either hang it up before falling apart or keep going to build up a little wiggle room). <br /><br />“Kenley Jansen is a Hall of Famer with two or three more good seasons” might sound extreme to you in the abstract, but it’s also worth keeping the more basic context in mind here as well: Jansen currently has 391 saves, eighth-most in history. There’s a strong chance that two-to-three good years moves him into third or fourth place on the all-time list. If he retires with more saves than anyone outside of Mariano Rivera or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trevor Hoffman</a>, I imagine a lot of voters will come around to his case anyway. Of course there’s the standard disclaimers here, the role is volatile and he might also just suddenly melt down, even as soon as next year. But if he can stay solid for a few years into his late 30s, he does look a lot like a Hall of Fame closer. <br /><br />Now let’s move to someone who is deeply feeling that “closers can be volatile” truism: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Kimbrel</a>. As I alluded to earlier, Kimbrel was leading Jansen in WPA as recently as one year ago, but he’s fallen down to 23.5 WPA. In fact, Kimbrel has actually been going in the wrong direction for a while now; outside of the start of 2021 (he was worth 2.8 WPA for the Cubs that season, before his disastrous trade to the White Sox), Kimbrel has actually <b><i>lost </i></b>2.8 WPA from his career total dating back to the 2019 season. He’s basically just been treading water, at best.<br /><br />Granted, he is still ahead of Jansen in saves for the moment, 394 to 391. And that start of the 2021 season, aside from offsetting the rest of that stretch, was good enough that you can maybe dream of a longer-term rebound happening. But still, he’s the same age as Jansen, so all of those big caveats from Jansen’s section apply <i>on top of </i>the fact that Kimbrel has just been worse lately. It’s baseball, anything can happen, et cetera… but it’s hard for me to look at Kimbrel right now and not just put him a tier below Jansen, whatever that translates to in percentages. <br /><br />Of course, whatever you think Kimbrel’s chances are of making the Hall from here, they’re certainly better than the other three players in this category. At 20.5 WPA, we have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberda08.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Robertson</a>. He’s had a better last four years than Kimbrel, but that’s mostly because “one good year and three nothing-years due to injury” beats three and a half bad years. On top of that, he’s spent most of his career as a set-up man rather than a closer; in fact, his 310 career Games Finished is one of the lowest totals among relievers with over 20 WPA. In the modern game, a reliever this good <i>not </i>closing for so long is kind of shocking. Even if he can avoid injuries and put up a few more good years, you have to figure a lot of Hall voters will ding him anyway for those low save totals (157 and counting). On top of all of that, he’s three years older than Jansen and Kimbrel, so he’s on an even tighter schedule. <br /><br />After that, at just under 20 WPA, we have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chapmar01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aroldis Chapman</a> (19.7) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melanma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mark Melancon</a> (19.4). Chapman is the same age as Jansen and Kimbrel, and while he was just a step behind them for a while, he had his own issues last season that he’ll have to rebound from if he wants to build a Hall case. But again, at least it’s just one bad year and not four straight rough seasons. Again, his odds probably aren’t great, but they definitely aren’t zero yet. I certainly think he has better odds than Melancon, who is Robertson’s age, did even worse in 2022, and over 50 saves behind Chapman on the leaderboard (315 to 262).<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>The Young Stars</u></b><br /><br /><b>Age 25: 5.2 WPA Median; 15.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 26: 8.0 WPA Median; 23.08% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 27: 11.5 WPA Median; 33.33% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 28: 12.7 WPA Median; 27.27% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 29: 13.6 WPA Median; 33.33% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 30: 17.2 WPA Median; 50.00% of all players at this mark elected<br /></b><br />Part of the reason that we’re skipping ahead here is that I feel like it’s easier to imagine younger pitchers stringing together a few peak seasons, something every pitcher from here on out will need since they’re all less than halfway to the goal. But it also helps that the sixth- and seventh-best pitchers by career WPA fall into this age group.<br /><br />Of course, both of those pitchers have their own issues, so there’s even still a ton of uncertainty here! First up is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Josh Hader</a>, at 13.9 Win Probability Added. Hader did not have a great start to 2022 in Milwaukee, got even worse following his trade to San Diego, but then seemed to return to form in the playoffs. If he can build off of that this year, his age-29 season, then he’s a lock to make it to the halfway point before this season’s end. On a side note, he only has 132 saves, which is actually a lot less than I expected? If he plays long enough to reach 30 WPA, I imagine that issue takes care of itself though. <br /><br />Next up is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=diazed04,diazed03,diaz--005edw&search=Edwin+Díaz&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Edwin Díaz</a>, who just turned 29 and sits at 11.6 WPA. Unfortunately, it looks like that won’t be changing much this year <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/edwin-diaz-knee-surgery-eight-months-patellar-tendon.html">following his unlucky injury in the World Baseball Classic</a>. We’ll have to see how he plays when he returns, but his hot start does mean he has some wiggle room. In fact, in contrast with Hader, Diaz already has 205 saves, third-most in history through age 28 and one of just five pitchers to pass the 200 mark by that age. However, that’s maybe not much of a predictor, <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/RI8tp">given the other four names</a> here (Kimbrel, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrifr04,rodrifr03&search=Francisco+Rodríguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Rodriguez</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/streehu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Huston Street</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thigpbo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Thigpen</a>) aren’t even matching the ~1 in 4 rate of the WPA leaders.<br /><br />There are other interesting names I’d like to at least mention here, even if they don’t have the resumes of Hader and Díaz quite yet. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=willide03,willia005dev&search=Devin+Williams&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Devin Williams</a>, Hader’s successor in Milwaukee, is next for under-30s at 8.0 WPA. He didn’t start quite as young as Hader did, and he didn’t really get many save opportunities until the trade, but he’s been strong so far as he heads into his age-28 season. <br /><br />And a little below him, we have division rivals <a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/claseem01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br">Emmanuel Clase</a> (4.8 WPA) and
<a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duranjh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br">Jhoan Durán</a> (4.6 WPA), who should both have an easy time meeting the age-25 median this coming season. Clase has the better early case, since he’s got more of a track record and has locked down the closer role, but both of these players still have an extremely long way to go. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>The Longer Shots</u></b><br /><br /><b>Age 31: 17.8 WPA Median; 44.44% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 32: 19.0 WPA Median; 36.36% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 33: 20.25 WPA Median; 36.36% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 34: 20.6 WPA Median; 40.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 35: 24.1 WPA Median; 50.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 36: 25.5 WPA Median; 57.14% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 37: 26.85 WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 38: 27.05 WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 39: 26.25WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 40: 26.2 WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 41: 26.2 WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 42: 27.1 WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 43: 27.15 WPA Median; 66.67% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 44: 29.05 WPA Median; 80.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 45: 29.75 WPA Median; 80.00% of all players at this mark elected<br /></b><br />For those wondering how we bridge the gap from 17 WPA at 30 to over 30 overall, here you go. Wilhelm ends up factoring into the median for a while, which is why it keeps going up for so darn long (and also serves as a helpful reminder for just how little data we’re working off of here). I ultimately don’t expect any of these guys to build a Hall case in their 30s (even if I suppose anything is possible when it comes to closers), but I do want to be thorough and at least give them a shoutout. And besides, it’s not like it’s <i>impossible</i>, just very unlikely.<br /><br />The only active pitcher we have left with double-digit win probability is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doolise01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sean Doolittle</a> at 10.9. Doolittle will be 36 this year, and it looks like his career might be winding down, as he follows up an injured 2022 season by starting 2023 once again on the IL. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/treinbl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Blake Treinen</a> (9.8 WPA), who’s a year younger, is in a similar boat. Sure, he’s been better than Doolittle lately, but he’s also been more of a set-up man, and lags in traditional stats, too. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bardda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Daniel Bard</a> (8.5 WPA) is a nice comeback story, but he’s older than either of them and has even fewer saves. <br /><br />The two most compelling closers in this group are probably <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/iglesra01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Raisel Iglesias</a> (9.4 WPA) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pressry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryan Pressly</a> (8.2 WPA), as both are a little younger (33 and 34, respectively), still pretty good, and still closing for winning teams in Atlanta and Houston. At the very least, that should give them a few years to rack up some stats, and if they can stay effective into their 40s, I guess it’s possible. I’d want several more years of evidence before calling either of them "likely", but given some of the other names I’ve mentioned or skipped over already, “possible” doesn’t seem that bad. And for the record, Iglesias sits at 157 career saves, while Pressley has 77.<br /><br />And… that accounts for every active relief pitcher over 8.0 career Win Probability Added. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=smithwi05,smithwi04,smith-091wil,smith-088wil,smith-086wil&search=Will+Smith&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Will Smith</a> is close (7.9), but I can’t imagine him picking up that much more as a lefty specialist at this point. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brittza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Britton</a> is technically over halfway if you remove his early struggles as a starter (13.6 career with those seasons, 15.7 without), but he still hasn’t signed anywhere on the brink of his age-35 season following rehab from <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tommy John</a> surgery; I’d want to at least see a comeback season first. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romose01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sergio Romo</a> (13.8) <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35976099/sergio-romo-pitches-last-gets-curtain-call-amid-final-exit">is retiring</a>, as the number of players from the 2000s <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/11/buster-poseys-retirement-accentuates.html">continues to dwindle</a>. 34-year-old <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colomal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Colomé</a> has over 150 saves in his career, but a low WPA (6.7) even before mentioning that he’s fallen off steeply the last two years. <br /><br />I think that’s anyone with an even mildly interesting case? Unless you want to get into the even more dubiously-active closers like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollagr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Greg Holland</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosentr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-28_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trevor Rosenthal</a>. If not, it looks like our final tally is one player in Kenley Jansen who’s more or less a coin flip right now, depending on how his next few years go; another case in Craig Kimbrel who looks a little more like a dice roll; and then maybe four or five other names who <i>maaaybe </i>have the start of something brewing, but check back in five or six years. <script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-67888906797716157692023-03-14T23:16:00.006-04:002023-03-14T23:17:47.859-04:00Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Starting Pitchers, 2023 Edition (Tenth Anniversary, Part 2!)<p>In the ten years and eleven sets of articles that I’ve been looking at Future Hall of Fame odds for starting pitchers, there’s been a clear downward trend. In <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/03/future-hall-of-fame-pitchers-2022-edition.html">my piece last year</a>, I even talked about the decline in the number of starting pitchers who were passing the median Wins Above Replacement for their ages and speculated about the causes. <br /><br />Returning to the issue this year, things don’t look substantially better; we’re still pretty devoid of players who hit those marks, but looking at it once again, it definitely looks to me like it’s due to teams putting stricter workload limits on young pitchers. Compare things even to a decade ago: we had one pitcher in the league at all under the age of 22 last season, compared with nearly a dozen in 2012. The number of under-23 pitchers basically halved, the under-24s dropped, and so on. <br /><br />I went and picked some other years from the 1990s and 2000s, and 2022 fell under basically all of them. There did seem to be something of a ceiling here, surprising; there weren’t uniformly more 22-year-olds throwing in 1990 compared to even 2012 (when discussion of innings limits were certainly more wide-spread). If anything, there seemed to be kind of a hard limit, and the quantity from year-to-year would vary below that; I suppose at a certain point, it’s difficult to justify throwing out more young arms than that soft limit just on a talent level. But the overall number of young pitchers went down, and the innings they were being given certainly went down. Sure, innings counts are down on the whole and I’m not positive if the effect is equal across ages, but the end results is still that there are definitely fewer young pitchers racking up 100 or even 200 innings in a season. <br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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I suppose there’s not really a way to tell other than waiting and seeing, but I will say, going back and looking at 22 year olds who threw 150-to-200 innings in a year sure does turn up a lot of non-famous names that ring a bell, either because they were supposed to be good but never stayed healthy or who were good for a bit but suddenly fell out of the game after 8 or 9 seasons, so… I don’t know, maybe the old methods weren’t working out so great. <br /><br />Pitching in general just seems to be more in flux than hitting, even beyond just the immediate scope. But that makes it difficult to use a system like this, which is entirely based around precedent. And given that WAR is a counting stat, and young pitchers are playing less, it’s an immediate disadvantage that they basically spend their careers coming back from; it’s a big part of why “being successful in your 30s” has become basically a necessity for pitchers making it to Cooperstown (not even getting into <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2020/12/hall-of-fame-pitchers-pettitte-buehrle-hudson.html">how modern Hall voters are mostly ignoring all but the most obvious candidates</a>). Of course, innings totals have been dropping at the top too, which might make putting up a big season and making up ground even harder too… <br /><br />I’ll do my best to work to combat all of this, listing some of the major leaders in each age group even if they aren’t especially close to the Hall median line. Take the values then as more of a guide for what they need to do to reach the Hall, like “how long do they have to keep this up” or “how good do they need to be to stay in the discussion”.<br /><br />As a reminder for how my methodology in this series works: first, I take every Hall of Fame starting player (so anyone who’s started in 10% or more of their appearances, and limited to just the post-1920 Liveball pitchers since the Deadball era was even more unrecognizable), and look at all of their career Wins Above Replacement totals* (Baseball-Reference version) at each age. Then, I take the median for each year, to form a sort of “Median Hall of Famer Pace” to follow. From there, I look at how many starting pitchers (with the same 10% limit) in history have been above the pace at each age, Hall member or not. I get the percentages for each age from just doing a simple calculation, (Number of Hall of Famers above the median pace) divided by (Total number of players above the median pace).<br /><br /><i>*Also, for pitchers, I only use their Pitching WAR, since their value as batters hasn’t typically factored into their Hall chances even before considering the new universal DH.</i><br /><br />So (to make up an example with fake numbers), if there were 100 Hall of Famers, and their median WAR at age 30 was 40.0 Wins, then I’d look at how many players in history had 40.0+ WAR by the same age. Say it was 100 players total, with 50 of them being in the Hall, we’d say players with over 40.0 WAR at that age have a 50% chance of induction. Also, I group players by their listed age the previous season, so players in the age 20 group will be playing in their age 21 season in 2023.<br /><br />With that all out of the way, let’s start looking at players:<br /><br /><span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p><br /><b>Age 20: 0.9 WAR Median; 14.81% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 21: 1.9 WAR Median; 10.28% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />There was exactly one player under the age of 22 who pitched at all in 2022: 21-year-old <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodssi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Simeon Woods Richardson</a>, who made exactly one 5.0 inning start for the Twins. You’ll no doubt be shocked to learn that wasn’t enough to get him 2 full WAR. There aren’t usually a lot of pitchers this young seeing innings in the majors, but there are usually at least more than this. Maybe this is a particular extreme brought about by the pandemic and the special havoc it wrought on player development (remember, it canceled the entire minor league season and most college and high school seasons on top of shortening the Major league schedule), but I also wouldn’t be shocked if we just don’t see this number tick back up much over the next few years.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 22: 4.0 WAR Median; 14.74% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />No one over the median here, but we do at least have players with meaningful playing time now! <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenhu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Hunter Greene</a> (2.3 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/detmere01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Reid Detmers</a> (2.1) both made it over the halfway mark. <br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 23: 6.5 WAR Median; 15.09% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />You can already start to see the effects of the later call-up times. 6.5 Wins is a tough but manageable total to reach for a player who was called up at 21 or 22; for players who start at 23, it basically means your first year needs to be <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cy Young</a> caliber. For example, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stridsp01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Spencer Strider</a> just had a great first year and managed a close second-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting thanks to 202 strikeouts and a 2.67 ERA (152 ERA+), but also didn’t really compile enough innings (131.2) to enter the Cy Young conversation. As a result, he was worth 3.7 WAR, meaning he’ll basically need to stay healthy and put up a full Cy Young campaign in 2023 to pass the Hall median. <br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 24: 9.8 WAR Median; 16.83% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None<br /></b><br />Or take <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manoaal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alek Manoah</a>. His debut half-season in 2021 was solid, strong enough to pick up some Rookie of the Year votes. He followed that up last year with an All-Star campaign that saw him finish third in Cy Young voting. And all of that gets him… 8.6 WAR, just short of the Hall median for his age. Closer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/claseem01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Emmanuel Clase</a> is 2 Wins behind Manoah, but relievers get a different Hall standard than starting pitchers, so our actual runner-up here is Clase’s teammate <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mckentr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Triston McKenzie</a> at 5.6 Wins. <br /><br /><b><br /><br />Age 25: 12.35 WAR Median; 17.76% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uriasju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Urías</a> (12.8 WAR)<br /></b><br /><br />We finally have our youngest above-median player in the other third place Cy Young finisher from last season. It probably helps that Urías has been in the majors since 2016, allowing him some early totals to build off of. In fact, the only other pitcher within 200 innings of him is his Giants rival and the age-25 bracket runner-up, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/webblo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Logan Webb</a> (8.4), but Webb is still trailing him by over 160 innings.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 26: 18.15 WAR Median; 26.39% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />Reigning NL Cy Young <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alcansa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sandy Alcantara</a> is close enough here (16.7 WAR) that you can probably blame his miss on the shortened 2020 season; a healthy All-Star level season this year should be enough to get him on the next edition of this list. His former teammate <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/galleza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zac Gallen</a> isn’t anywhere near that close, but is still second place here (12.5 WAR). Also, note that even for pitchers who <i>are </i>over the median here, we only just broke 25% odds for induction. In comparison, hitters over the line at this age (which is nearly 3 full WAR higher) are already looking at Hall chances over 56%.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 27: 21.55 WAR Median; 27.14% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marquge01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Germán Márquez</a> (15.7) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biebesh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Shane Bieber</a> (15.3) lead here, but aren’t even up to Alcantara’s WAR total.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 28: 26.45 WAR Median; 34.55% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/friedma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Fried</a> finished runner-up behind Alcantara in the Cy Young voting last year, making it his second top-five finish (after 2020). And yet, he’s still only at 17.1 WAR for his career, far enough away that even giving him a generous estimate for the missed time of the pandemic year still wouldn’t get him all that close to the line.<br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 29: 31.2 WAR Median; 38.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolaaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Nola</a> (29.9 WAR) is also close enough that he probably would make it if you credited him for the rest of 2020. But unlike Alcantara, he faces a much steeper climb next year, needing a 6.4 Win season in 2023 to get above the line. Granted, that’s not too far from his performance in 2022, but we’ll also need to wait and see if he sees a drop-off following his extended October workload. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=castilu03,castilu02,castilu01,castil025lui,castil020lui,castil023lui,castil019lui,castil018lui&search=Luis+Castillo&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Luis Castillo</a> (19.3) is a distant second place. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 30: 36.3 WAR Median; 52.78% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><br />Castillo’s new teammate <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Robbie Ray</a> leads here, but he’s not even up to Castillo’s WAR totals yet (17.9). New Yankees’ mega-signee <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodonca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Rodón</a> is even further behind (16.6). <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 31: 41.2 WAR Median; 54.29% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a> leads this age bracket with 33.7 WAR, putting him just over the halfway mark to median career WAR for the Hall. It’s probably worth mentioning, for those who haven’t realized it yet, that the median for starting pitchers is about 5.5 Wins above the median for hitters, which combined with the slightly slower start gives pitchers a pretty aggressive pace if they have to play catch-up. It’s why he hasn’t really made up much ground despite his solid run the last few years, and why I’ve more and more come to describe this in terms of being about who can stay effective the longest. Cole also has a pretty sizable lead over his nearest competitors, Kevin Guasman (19.7) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stromma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Stroman</a> (19.6), but if one of them can have a strong run in their 30s, I suppose they could also move themselves into the conversation too. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 32: 44.7 WAR Median; 57.58% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a> is on top here with 33.3 WAR, and no, adding in his hitting value doesn’t help all that much (included, it gets him up to 38.1). I used to think that, given his postseason heroics, Bumgarner could build up enough of a case to win over voters if he held on until 200ish pitching wins and 45-50 WAR; maybe not a first-ballot case, but something to get him in on his final BBWAA ballot, or an early Veterans Committee one. His years in Arizona have been pretty rough though, which calls all of that into question. And not just because of the lower quality, but also because I’m not sure about his future once his contract ends after 2024; you can’t really pad your counting stats if no one wants to sign you. He’ll probably get at least one more chance after that if he wants to keep going, but that’s not really saying a lot given how desperate teams are to find pitching. At this point, I wouldn’t be shocked if <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheelza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Wheeler</a> (24.5 WAR) ends up ahead of him on the leaderboard. (Technically, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sonny Gray</a> is between the two of them for the moment at 25.1 WAR, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as Wheeler the last three seasons, so I don’t expect that to last forever).<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 33: 51.6 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a> (45.6 WAR) was ahead of the median line for a while, but between the pace’s relentless increase and Sale’s string of injuries (just 48.1 innings over the last three seasons), he’s fallen behind. If he can pick back up where he was in 2018-19, he’s of course got a chance (although it might take him a while to get back to the median given that the median pace doesn’t really drop off for two more years). And of course, for as rough as Sale has had it the last three years, it could always be worse: runner-up here is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg</a> (30.9 WAR), one of the few major league pitchers who has thrown fewer innings than Sale the last three seasons. <br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 34: 54.4 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a> (73.1 WAR)</b><br /><br />For the first time since <i>waaaayyyy </i>back in the age 25 bracket, we have a player over the Hall median, and it’s a teammate of Urías at that. Kershaw also serves as our first of four pitchers who’s already surpassed the career Hall median WAR for starting pitchers, although I think just about anyone could have told you that. Is there anyone at this point who would seriously argue against his induction? I feel like even if he retired tomorrow, he’d still get over 90% of the vote on his first ballot. But until he does decide to hang it up, we get to see him start hitting big milestones over the next few seasons (200 pitching wins should come this season, and he might reach 3000 strikeouts this year with very good health)<br /><br />We also have a notable runner-up here as well, in the form of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a>. I have no idea what to make of his case. Despite his late start (his Rookie of the Year 2014 season came at the age of 26), deGrom has still managed to put up 41.1 WAR so far. And that’s even with injuries and pandemics over the last three years; he’s only thrown 224.1 innings in the 2020s, but still added 8.5 WAR in that span, according to Baseball-Reference. If he can stay healthy and pitch at his current rate, reaching the Hall median won’t be an issue, but that pace is so good that <i>even if he isn’t healthy</i>, he still might make it! I mean, you’d still rather take the healthier option there just to be safe, but some careers just wind up kind of weird. And of course, on top of all of those possibilities he also only has 82 career wins. If he makes it to 70 career WAR and 2500+ strikeouts but only reaches 130ish wins, how will BBWAA voters react to that? There are enough statistically-minded voters at this point that he’d definitely have a voting bloc with that line, but how big would the hardline Pitching Wins counter-bloc be? Would they give him an exemption for peak success, in the vein of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sandy Koufax</a>, or would they ignore him? We’re already multiple conditionals in at this point, so I’ll leave it there for now, but definitely expect to see his blurb here evolve in the coming years.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 35: 59.85 WAR Median; 95.00% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />We’re right back to no players above the median, although you might note that the pitchers over the mark here are basically “the most obvious Hall of Fame choices plus <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Clemens</a>”, so this mark is really just for the best of the best anyway. I don’t think <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lance Lynn</a> (31.4 WAR) will make it here; his 2019-2021 run looked like it could be the start of a “late bloomer” arc, but I’d definitely want to see a rebound from his rough 2022 before considering that possibility any further. <br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a> (30.2 WAR) is right behind Lynn, and he might be an interesting candidate when he hits the ballot. Of course, part of that is that Darvish is still posting good seasons, but it also helps that he has a confounding factor in the form of his pre-MLB days. As I mentioned in the last article while talking about <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Abreu</a>, I think players with good performance in foreign leagues before coming to America should get some sort of extra credit towards their Hall of Fame cases. I mean, sure, the NPB isn’t as tough as Major League Baseball, but I still feel like Darvish throwing 7 seasons of 1.99 ERA should count for something when discussing his career, even if I don’t have an exact conversion rate just yet. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 36: 60.2 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />Again, no one over the line here. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto</a> leads with 38.7 WAR. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Kluber</a> (right behind, at 34.7 WAR) might have a stronger argument on “peak value” thanks to his two Cy Young Awards, but I still can’t see him getting as much support as the one-and-done <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johan Santana</a> (who got just 2.4% of the vote back in 2018, less than half of what’s needed to stay on the ballot). <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 37: 61.3 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a> (70.7 WAR)</b><br /><br />Our third pitcher who qualifies as “on pace” is another pitcher who I’m not sure will have any detractors come his time on the ballot. Scherzer is once again already over the median WAR for starters in the Hall, and while he could theoretically accrue enough negative WAR to drop below the mark, I just can’t see that changing anyone’s mind on his overall case. He’s firmly in the “just enjoy the next few years” category (although he’s already over 3000 strikeouts and 200 wins, so any further milestones are pretty far off). <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 38: 62.05 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a> (71.4 WAR)</b><br /><br />I don’t know if Greinke is going to reach the vote percentages of Kershaw or Scherzer, since I think they’ll both be in the upper 90s and hard to top, but I still think he’s still going in on his first BBWAA ballot anyway. He’s another player that I’ve thought of as worth of induction for a while now but who has definitely locked down his election recently, where the last few years has been watching his case shift from just the more statistically-minded fans and writers, to the more average writers and voters starting to refer to him as “Future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke”. Like, I think his case won’t have Kershaw or Scherzer’s big stand-out hooks and it’ll be a little easier for the perpetual naysayers (always a frustratingly large chunk of the BBWAA electorate) to leave him off, but getting in with 80% of the vote still counts. And if you want a milestone to watch for in his final years, Greinke is currently 118 strikeouts away from 3000; that’s probably two seasons away based on his rate last year, but he did strike out 120 as recently as 2021, so it’s not totally out of the question for this year. <br /><br />Also, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a> (58.0 WAR) has once again signed a minor league deal, this time with his hometown Padres. Hamels has only thrown one game in the past three years due to a myriad of injuries, so projecting anything from him this year seems premature, but it would be great to see him come all the way back from that. Also, it’s easy to forget, but he was still useful in his last full season back in 2019, and basically tracing the median Hall WAR in the years before that. I wonder if a strong comeback year or two here would give his case a strong narrative hook that wins him some more supporters? <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 39: 63.5 WAR Median; 79.17% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a> (78.1 WAR)</b><br /><br />Our final “on pace” player is the active leader in WAR for pitchers, Justin Verlander. Again, “will he make the Hall” just doesn’t feel like an interesting question at this point. If you want a real tough call, maybe try “will he last long enough to reach 300 wins”. Sure, he’s 56 away and he just turned 40, but he is the reigning AL Cy Young, so who knows? It would be kind of funny if, despite all of the changes to pitching and the constant hand-wringing about the death of 300 Wins, we somehow just keep having pitchers occasionally sneak into the club like that.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 40: 65.7 WAR Median; 79.17% of all players at this mark elected<br />Age 41: 66.8 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Overall: 67.2 WAR Median; 82.61% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />And we finally reach the two oldest pitchers in the league, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a> (42.4 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillri01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-14_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rich Hill</a> (17.5 WAR). Who knows how much longer either of them has in the league (I think Wainwright has indicated that it might be his final year?), but they were both decent back-end starters last year (with Wainwright a little better than Hill), and if nothing else, there will always be teams looking for that should either of them decide to play in 2024 and beyond. The Hall median is almost certainly out of the question for both of them, but they’ve still had remarkable careers. <br /><br /></p><p><br />That brings to the end of the starting pitchers, but I might have another bonus Future Hall of Fame piece coming up soon. And if that falls through, I still have at least one more big post that I’d like to finish before the season properly begins. If you’d like to be notified when those go up, consider subscribing to the newsletter below!<br /><br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-80447264273676477602023-03-05T21:03:00.008-05:002023-03-23T01:33:53.122-04:00Predicting Today's Future Hall of Fame Hitters, 2023 Edition (Tenth Anniversary!)<p>Once again, we’re at the point in the offseason where I <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/p/future-hall-of-fame-series.html">predict active players’ chances at making the Hall of Fame</a>. And even more notably, this year marks the tenth anniversary of my first entry in the series, from all the way back in 2013! It doesn’t feel like it’s been that long, but it has. <br /><br />And I guess part of the reason it doesn’t feel that long is that the Hall of Fame kind of moves at a glacial pace. For example, the youngest stars I wrote about back in 2013? They’re entering their age 30 season this year (and they’ve posted a remarkable track record in that time, but more on that later!). In fact, very few of the players from my first article have even reached a Hall ballot, since I only covered players 30 and under in that entry. <br /><br />A number of those players have retired, sure (not all of them, though!), but it kind of serves as a real-time demonstration of how dramatically slow the Hall’s process is; you need to play for at least ten seasons (so even the 2013 thirty-year-olds likely needed a few more years to be eligible), then you need to wait five seasons after retiring, then you can finally be considered in that sixth year. I think the only names from those first articles to appear on the BBWAA ballot so far are <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfca02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carl Crawford</a>; how long has it been since you’ve thought about either of them?* You get a few more if you expand it the 2014 article, since I raised the bar to 35 that year, but on the other hand, that one also included <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a>, who was of course so young that he was an All-Star as recently as last year!<br /><br /><i>*Side note that I just had to drop somewhere: I casually glanced at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Crawford#Personal_life">Crawford’s Wikipedia page</a> to see what he’d been doing since retirement, and it is <b>a lot</b> to take in. The high points include things like his son going in the first round of the draft last year, and the record label he founded signing hip-hop superstar Megan Thee Stallion. The low points include a lot of violence and getting sued by Megan over that contract. I was expecting maybe one or two small notes, not all of that. Fielder didn’t even <b>get</b> a post-career section on his page, and he had a cooking show!</i><br /></p><p><br />Anyway, with all of the sentimental stuff out of the way, let’s do a quick refresher of the method I use here. First, I take every Hall of Fame position player, and look at all of their career Wins Above Replacement totals (Baseball-Reference version) at each age. Then, I take the median for each year, to form a sort of “Median Hall of Famer Pace” to follow. From there, I look at how many players in history have been above the pace at each age, Hall member or not. I get the percentages for each age from just doing a simple calculation, (Number of Hall of Famers above the median pace) divided by (Total number of players above the median pace).<br /><br />So (to make up an example with fake numbers), if there were 100 Hall of Famers, and their median WAR at age 30 was 40.0 Wins, then I’d look at how many players in history had 40.0+ WAR by the same age. Say it was 100 players total, with 50 of them being in the Hall, we’d say players with over 40.0 WAR at that age have a 50% chance of induction. Also, I group players by their listed age the previous season, so players in the age 20 group will be playing in their age 21 season in 2023.<br /><br />Let me know in the comments if you have any questions. Otherwise, let’s jump right in:<br /></p><p><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{margin:0 5px 15px 5px;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="700"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit,.formkit-form[data-uid="427f69e8df"][min-width~="800"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br /><b>Age 20: 0.4 WAR Median; 23.91% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players: <br />None</b><br /><br />There just really weren’t that many 20-year-old position players in the league last year. Only <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Álvarez</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tovarez01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ezequiel Tovar</a> saw any playing time at all, totalling just 14 games and 49 plate appearances between them. That might sound normal, but it’s actually a little surprising, since the low WAR total helps offset the small player pool; in fact, 2022 is the first full season (so excluding 2020) since 2017 that we haven’t had an active 20-year-old who made it to the Hall median for the age!<br /><br /><p></p><p><br /><b>Age 21: 2.0 WAR Median; 35.76% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodriju01,rodrig014jul,rodrig010jul&search=Julio+Rodríguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Julio Rodriguez</a> (6.2 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francwa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Wander Franco</a> (6.1 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrimi04.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Michael Harris</a> II (5.3 WAR)</b><br /><br />In contrast with the Age 20 bracket, Age 21 is already packed with over-the-line players. We of course have our two reigning Rookies of the Year in Rodriguez and Harris, plus Franco, who makes it despite really only having two half-seasons under his belt so far. And even that set is only scratching the surface here. <br /><br />After them, you also have a pair of former first-round picks in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Riley Greene</a> and Corbin Carrol, who made it over halfway to 2.0 Wins in under 100 games (1.4 and 1.2, respectively), plus <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendegu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gunnar Henderson</a> (0.9) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grissva01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vaughn Grissom</a> (0.8) just missing the halfway point despite neither hitting a major league roster until August (in fact, Henderson still maintains his Rookie status for 2023!). Given that the median bar is still fairly low for age-22 players, don’t be surprised if this age group has five or six names over the line when the next edition of the series rolls around. <br /><br /><span></span></p><a name='more'></a><br /><br /><b>Age 22: 4.2 WAR Median; 38.15% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />And we’re right back into a slump. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomaal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alek Thomas</a> leads this bunch with 1.4, but that means he needs a 6+ WAR season in 2023 to catch back up.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 23: 7.6 WAR Median; 41.90% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=sotoju01,soto--004jua&search=Juan+Soto&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Juan Soto</a> (23.2 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a> (13.4 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gimenan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrés Giménez</a> (9.2 WAR) </b><br /><br />Soto is technically set on WAR all the way through the 2025 season, which will be his first year after reaching free agency. I imagine he’ll want to keep adding to his WAR total until then to see if he can land that $400 million+ contract. In contrast, Guerrero and Giménez will need to actually work to keep up with the rising median for their age group. I don’t necessarily doubt their ability to keep it up, it’s just worth remembering that this is where that Hall of Fame pace really starts to take off. And after them, you have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carlsdy01,carlso001dyl&search=Dylan+Carlson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dylan Carlson</a> (5.3 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kirkal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alejandro Kirk</a> (5.1). Carlson could make it with a good season or two; Kirk probably won’t, but he will deserve some extra credit for being a catcher, so it’s worth keeping him in mind.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 24: 11.1 WAR Median; 42.86% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />Ronald Acuña Jr. (17.6 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bichebo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bo Bichette</a> (12.9 WAR)</b><br /><br />I was kind of shocked that Acuña is only one season ahead of pace, in large part because he’s topped out at around 5 Wins in a season. However, that’s mostly due to his 2021 injury, the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and his shortened rookie campaign. I’m sure there’s an alternate universe where he’s running two or three years ahead of schedule, although there’s also nothing saying he can’t get back to that point in this one. Similarly, I’m surprised Bichette is only this far ahead, but Baseball-Reference’s defensive metrics really didn’t like his 2022 performance. He should still make his 2023 target, though.<br /><br />Also, a shout out to AL Rookie of the Year runners-up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kwanst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Steven Kwan</a> (5.5) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rutscad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adley Rutschman</a> (5.2). Debuting that late is a big disadvantage in keeping up with the Hall’s pace, given that this is where the curve starts to accelerate. At this point, making up the difference is more about consistency over time than having one big year (we’ll even see an example or two of that later). Also, again, Adley being a catcher is another bonus towards his case. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 25: 16.1 WAR Median; 52.29% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />Acuña’s teammate <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/albieoz01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ozzie Albies</a> leads this bunch, but for the first time in his career, Albies has slipped below the Hall median for his age. At 15.3 WAR, he <i>could </i>theoretically make it back above the age-26 line, but according to Baseball-Reference, he’s still never even reached 5 Wins in a year, so it will be tough. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rafael Devers</a> is right behind him (15.2), and has certainly been better the last few years, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he leads this group next time around. And then there are a few more interesting names further down, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Yordan Alvarez</a> (13.6), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kyle Tucker</a> (12.8), and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rileyau01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Austin Riley</a> (12.0). Their relatively slower starts mean they’ll have to make up a lot of ground in chunks over these next few years rather than all at once, but maybe they can pull it off. <br /><br />Honestly, this is probably the first age where the shortened 2020 season has an effect, since these players all would have been old enough that we could maybe start to consider it a “peak” season. Alvarez and Riley probably wouldn’t have made it given that they had other issues that season (Alvarez was hurt for most of it and Riley was still adjusting to the majors), but Tucker could have made a decent dent in his gap with another Win or two that year. And Albies and Devers are close enough as-is that they very likely would have made it with even moderate health.<br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 26: 20.95 WAR Median; 56.55% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cody Bellinger</a> could withstand one bad year and still finish above the age-25 Hall median, but his light rebound in 2022 couldn’t keep up to the rapidly-rising trend. He still leads this bunch with 17.8 WAR, but he’s going to need a season just as good as his 2019 MVP campaign to catch back up in 2023. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/adamewi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willy Adames</a> (15.5) has snuck up on Bellinger, and while 25 WAR is almost certainly out of the question, he could pass Bellinger next season if they both repeat their 2022 performance.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 27: 25.65 WAR Median; 59.29% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Correa</a> (39.5 WAR)</b><br /><br />I feel like some people are going to lose sight of this fact given all of the weirdness in his free agency this past winter, but Correa is really good. Like, he’s essentially two-third of the way to the Hall median in WAR heading into his age-28 season! Correa has a career 129 OPS+ as a shortstop, which, for reference, generally just <i>doesn’t happen</i>; he’s fourth among shortstops with 3000+ plate appearances (fifth if you include A-Rod). Obviously that’s going to go down as he ages, but like, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a> at this point had an OPS+ of 122. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Larkin</a> through age 27 was at 112. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ripkeca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cal Ripken Jr.</a> was only at 125! Correa is really freaking good, even if teams (for whatever reason) aren’t sure whether they want him! And for those curious, he’s completely lapped the runner-up in this group, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beninan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew Benintendi</a> (15.7 WAR).<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 28: 31.0 WAR Median; 64.84% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Lindor</a> (36.6 WAR)</b><br /><br />Every time I write one of these and do back-to-back blurbs on Correa and Lindor, I remember them finishing neck-and-neck in the 2015 Rookie of the Year race, even though it was seven years ago and both of them have moved on to bigger things. Anyway, Lindor is slightly less secure than Correa, trailing him by about 3 Wins while having around 180 more games and an extra year of age under his belt. But he’s still in a pretty good place, good to go through this season and already working on his 2024 total. It also helps that he bounced back strong after a rough 2021. <br /><br />And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Bregman</a> deserves a mention as another pandemic-induced miss, finishing exactly half a win shy of 31. A 5-Win season would get him back on track, and he finally seems back in form following his 2021 injuries, although it does mean he doesn’t have a lot of margin for error. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Corey Seager</a> trails him, but at 25.3 WAR, even a full 2020 season probably wouldn’t have gotten him the rest of the way.<br /><br /><b><br /><br />Age 29: 35.5 WAR Median; 69.75% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mookie Betts</a> (56.4 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a> (52.0 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a> (42.5 WAR)<br />José Ramírez (40.3 WAR)</b><br /><br />This group has been the constant of this series, dating all the way back to the start. The first edition came all the way back following Machado and Harper’s rookie seasons back in 2012, and in fact, they were two of the young stars of the time that drove me to devise this system. The 2015 article (which followed Betts’ 2014 debut) was the first one to feature all four of these players over the Hall median for their age, and that’s more or less been the standard ever since (except for 2016 and 2017, where Ramírez briefly swapped places with the first runner-up). <br /><br />After his late start, Betts has overtaken everyone else despite his lower playing time. Not only is his WAR total set through his age 35 season (which corresponds to the 2028!), but if his 2023 campaign is as good as last year, he’d actually pass the overall median for Hall of Fame position players. I’m not sure that the more traditional voters would go for his case right now, but I think we can still probably start considering him a player who has already solidified his candidacy. <br /><br />After him, we have Manny Machado, fresh off his runner-up MVP finish and big contract extension. He’s not quite to Mookie’s level, but he’s still good to go through at least 2026. And reaching the overall 61.7 Win median might be too much for just one year… unless he, say, finally wins that MVP Award.<br /><br />Harper, meanwhile, is set up through next season; it’s less impressive than Betts and Machado, but it still means that his delayed return from off-season surgery is a little less pressing. Even with a shortened 2023, picking up ~2 Wins and staying a year ahead of the median pace seems doable for him. Ramírez has to be a little better than that to stay a season ahead, but ~4 Wins is still well within what he did last year.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Xander Bogaerts</a> is our first runner-up this year (as well as being the aforementioned player who swapped places with José back in the 2016-17 articles), and he’s yet another player who barely missed the mark, finishing 2022 with 34.9 WAR. Another 5+ Win year like last year and he’s here as a fifth next year. After him, there’s <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turnetr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trea Turner</a> (29.7 WAR) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/storytr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trevor Story</a> (29.3), although neither seems like they could make it to the median for next year, even if you gave them back time missed in 2020. Maybe long term, with a few good seasons, they could catch up, but that’s a longer-term proposition. <br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 30: 40.0 WAR Median; 74.11% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a> (82.4 WAR)</b><br /><br />This season will mark half a decade since Mike Trout surpassed the Hall median. Last year was his best season since 2019, when he won the MVP to celebrate no longer having to chase the Hall of Fame median. In some ways, discussing Trout’s Hall of Fame chances at this point is a little boring? You can find fun trivia like that, but “Will Mike Trout make the Hall” is a kind of easy question.<br /><br />There are a few more interesting cases here in the misses, though. For example, first runner-up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Aaron Judge</a>, who looked like he might be too far back (between his relatively late debut and injury history) right up until his 10+ Win, 62-homer 2022. He’s at 37.0 WAR now, so he doesn’t even need to be as good as last year to catch up (and if predicting a 7+ WAR season still feels too aggressive, even a normal, All-Star-level season could leave him well-positioned to finally reach it in 2024). <br /><br />After Judge, there’s <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yelicch01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Christian Yelich</a> (36.1 WAR), who had a pretty good peak, but has fallen off the last few years to the point where it’s hard to envision him catching up from here. The more interesting one to look at is actually probably <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/contrwi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willson Contreras</a>, who’s further off (20.8) but will get at least some benefit of the doubt as a catcher. He’ll definitely need a solid next few years to build his case, though.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 31: 44.3 WAR Median; 77.78% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a> (52.2 WAR)<br /></b><br /><a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/02/scott-rolen-hall-of-fame-third-base-history.html">I didn’t say it in my recent set of articles about third base and the Hall of Fame</a>, but Nolan Arenado has to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a>’s induction to Cooperstown, right? He’s probably the closest thing we have to the present-day Rolen, and he’s certainly done better in Awards voting than Scott did, which is maybe our best evidence that voters are evolving there. Anyway, he’s set to stay above the Hall median pace through at least the next two years with his 2025 goal in sight, and a repeat of his MVP-level performance last year would get him about 1.5 Wins away from the overall median. <br /><br />No one else is all that close, but there are some interesting other names. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/semiema01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Marcus Semien</a> is a little far off at 34.8 WAR, but he’s still putting up a lot of value; there’s nothing saying a player can’t have most of their peak seasons in their 30s. And the pace drops off notably after age 32; a couple of big years from here will catch you right up. I’m not sure if I’d bet on it, but it’s also not impossible. And then there’s <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/realmjt01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">J.T. Realmuto</a> (29.7 WAR), who’s also still putting up good seasons behind the plate, which will again mean he’ll need extra consideration. Maybe he doesn’t follow through either, but again, I feel like he’s worth a shout out here at least. <br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 32: 48.6 WAR Median; 77.78% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Freddie Freeman</a> (49.0 WAR)<br /></b><br />This is another age group with a few interesting cases. On top, there’s Freddie Freeman, who’s fairly straight-forward; he’s still playing well, he’s at the age where he’s going to start hitting milestones (2000 hits and 300 homers should both come this season). He’d probably have a little more buffer if his MVP campaign had been a full season, but I think he’s probably at the point where he can lock up his case by just being above-average for a few more years, even though he’s still looking like a star. More good years never hurt a Hall case, certainly.<br /><br />Then, there’s <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jose Altuve</a> (46.5 WAR), who had consistently been above the median until his dismal 2020 season. He played the whole shortened season and was worth negative value, so it’s not like you can just double or triple his numbers for the year and say he would have made it. However, it seems to have just been a one-year aberration, and he was hardly the only player to suffer a 2020 like that (for example, Nolan Arenado, since I was just looking at his stats). Given his bounce back since then, it feels like you can give him a bit of a mulligan. 4 Wins would get him back on pace, which seems like it shouldn’t be too absurd of an ask of a player who just finished fifth in the most recent MVP race.<br /><br />And then there’s <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a> (44.7 WAR). Missing basically two seasons to injury is going to make staying above the Hall median an impossible task, although he did kind of manage it for a while. 2021 looked like it might be the start of a return to form, and 2022 started out strong enough to get him an All-Star selection, but a dismal, injured second half ended up putting a stop to that. Can he stay healthy enough to rack up a lot more value? Or at least enough counting stats to win over the BBWAA? He should reach 400 home runs this season, to start. We’ll have to wait and see from there.<br /><br />The rest of the list is a bunch of players who once looked strong but fell off hard the last few years, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rizzoan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Anthony Rizzo</a> (39.2 WAR), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a> (38.7), and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a> (37.3). <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Salvador Perez</a> is probably the biggest name worth mentioning, since he’s a catcher (with a pretty strong reputation, at that) and still performing well.; he currently sits at 32.3 WAR.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 33: 50.5 WAR Median; 75.68% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None<br /></b><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martest01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Starling Marte</a> leads this age group, with 38.6 career WAR. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a> is next at 33.5. More interestingly, he’s at 1997 hits; maybe he can hang around long enough to reach 3000, or at least come close enough to fool some voters?<br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 34: 53.9 WAR Median; 76.36% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Paul Goldschmidt</a> (58.5 WAR) </b><br /><br />I know I’ve said other players saw their chances of making the Hall increase in 2022, but see those chances increase more than Goldy? In last year’s article, I noted that his stats through age 33 <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/03/future-hall-of-fame-hitters-2022-edition.html">looked a lot like Todd Helton’s</a> (and Helton didn’t exactly set the world on fire after that point). One year later, and Helton has gone from “trending towards induction” to “basically guaranteed to make it in 2024”, while Goldschmidt went and won the MVP while having his best season ever. And that isn’t even getting into <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgrifr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fred McGriff</a> making the Hall this year, which gives Goldschmidt another comp to outshine. <br /><br />Distant second place here is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Upton</a>, who makes for a wild contrast with Goldschmidt. Both came up as Diamondbacks and were even briefly teammates; Upton looked like a future star after debuting at 19, was nearing free agency by the time Goldschmidt locked down a starting role (their age 24 season), and has fizzled hard since turning 31. I have no idea if Upton will even play this year, but if he does hang it up, it’s still been a solid career.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 35: 55.8 WAR Median; 75.68% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None<br /></b><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a>, who will be taking a homecoming lap with the Pirates in 2023, leads here with 47.0 WAR. That’s close enough that you can maybe dream of him coming back with a decent, second-act All-Star year or two plus some other serviceable seasons… but he’s sadly been trending downward for a while now, so it probably won’t happen, despite how fun it is to root for him.<br /><br />What makes it more frustrating is that the next two guys at this age have actually kind of managed that! <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantmi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Michael Brantley</a> (34.1 WAR) made an All-Star Game in 2021, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">José Abreu</a> (31.9) was MVP in 2020. You take either of their post-30 years and tack it onto McCutchen’s start, and you’re basically at the Hall median for this age. Shoot, you take McCutchen’s stats through age 28 and Abreu’s after, and you’re within a Win of the overall Hall median! I actually kind of wonder if there’s a case for Abreu if you do something to account for his years in the Cuban league prior to coming to America, although that’s probably the subject for another article. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 36: 57.5 WAR Median; 76.36% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a> (58.1 WAR)</b><br /><br />I’ve talked at length about Longoria’s Hall chances, most recently <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/02/scott-rolen-hall-of-fame-third-base-history.html">in my previous article on third basemen</a> and <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/05/appreciating-evan-longoria.html">most at length here</a>. Basically, I think he has a good chance of doing all the right things to have a Hall-worthy career: pass the 2000 hit barrier that has long been a disqualifier, reach the Hall median in Wins, add some other nice awards and milestones like 350 homers. And all of that might mean nothing anyway, because of other inherent factors cutting against him, like the Hall bias against his position or getting overlooked in awards voting. I hope he can at least stay on the ballot and not get kicked off after one try, like a lot of other third basemen of his level. And if he can manage that, maybe he’s not a lost cause; we’ve seen some Hall candidates seriously grow their candidacies as of late.<br /><br />First runner-up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson</a> (46.6 WAR) will probably also run into some of those issues, although his case will also be hurt by his very late start (his first full season came at the age of 27), the numerous injuries, and the other problems that brings about (like a lack of counting stats).<br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 37: 59.5 WAR Median; 81.55% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None</b><br /><br />Age-group leader <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turneju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Justin Turner</a> (34.6 WAR) isn’t as high up as Donaldson, but he’s overcome a lot of similar issues. Through 2013, his age 28 season, he had played in just over 300 games and been worth 0.6 WAR. In that context, what he’s managed over the last decade and ~1000 games has been pretty amazing. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 38: 60.1 WAR Median; 82.35% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a> (64.3 WAR)</b><br /><br />I don’t think there’s any question of whether Votto will make the Hall at this point, right? I feel like the chatter around him the last few years has kind of shifted, from “Will he make it?” to “Definite future Hall of Famer”, even though he likely won’t reach any major milestones (he’s another late bloomer; his Rookie of the Year award back in 2008 was for his age-24 season). Maybe he won’t be a first ballot guy, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he is. Also, I guess we’ll know either way relatively soon; 2023 is the final year of his deal with the Reds unless they exercise an option. Will he retire after this year? Come back for one more year with Cincinnati? Move elsewhere to try one last season (or even more)? It’s something to keep in mind for this season. <br /><br /><br /><b><br />Age 39: 60.5 WAR Median; 83.17% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Robinson Canó</a> (68.1 WAR)<br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a> (67.7 WAR)</b><br /><br />And in contrast with Votto, we have Cabrera, who after reaching 3000 hits and 500 home runs, has already confirmed that 2023 will be his final season. So you can start booking trips to Cooperstown or placing bets on his first-vote percentage or whatever else you want to get ready for 2029. <br /><br />I have no idea if <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a> is done or not. He hasn’t said he’s retired, but it’s hard to imagine a team picking him up. Like, I imagine he signs for cheap (he’s still getting paid by the Mets and/or Mariners anyway), and he’s clearly pretty flexible about his opportunities (as seen by his willingness to hop teams and even play in AAA last year), but like… he was still awful, there’s little upside given his age, and of course there are the two PED suspensions on his record. Maybe he plays in 2023; unlikelier things have happened. But given the record of steroid-linked players on the ballot, the Hall is clearly not happening any time soon. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Age 40: 60.5 WAR Median; 83.17% of all players at this mark elected<br />Overall: 61.7 WAR Median; 84.85% of all players at this mark elected<br />Active Players:<br />None<br /></b><br />Albert Pujols finally decided to hang it up and begin his long Hall of Fame wait, so our leader in the over-40 category this year is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=cruzne02,cruzne01&search=Nelson+Cruz&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-03-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nelson Cruz</a> at 42.4 Wins. I kind of figured his performance last year might make his retirement decision for him (Cruz was only worth 0.1 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference), but the Padres decided to give him one more shot to bounce back. And you know, why not? There would be worse things than trying to see Manny Machado and company win one for Cruz before he calls it quits. And best case scenario, maybe he has a good enough year that he can justify coming back again next year to try for 500 home runs. I’d bet he’d be willing to hang around chasing if it looked plausible, and it would make the discussion around his eventual Hall of Fame candidacy that much more contentious, which I think would be funny. <br /><br /><br /><br />As is usually the case, I’ll be following this up with a list for the pitchers. If you’d like to be notified right when that list comes out, why not subscribe to the new Hot Corner Harbor mailing list? I send out an email every time I publish a new article here, and… that’s really it, it’s basically just a notification for new posts. But if you’d like to be added to that, use the box below. 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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-60223729388798926172023-02-14T00:05:00.001-05:002023-02-14T00:05:18.237-05:00Scott Rolen's Hall of Fame Resume, and the Larger Context of Third Base, Part 2<a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/02/scott-rolenhall-of-fame-third-base.html">Last time, I wrote about Scott Rolen’s Hall of Fame induction, and started moving beyond Rolen and into the wider context of his position, third base</a>. Go back and check that out if you didn’t see it, because it’s going to be context for the rest of this piece, where I move from talking about third base and the Hall in general, to talking about specific third basemen. <br /><br /><br /><h3><Moving Beyond Rolen></h3><p>The Hall has always undervalued having a mix of skills, that’s something that happens across positions. Especially players who don’t fall in the top seven or eight at their position; sure, sometimes they nail it, but not always. Shoot, that’s part of what hurt <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidedu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Duke Snider</a>, who had the record for “lowest first-ballot vote to get inducted by the BBWAA” prior to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a>’s election this year; like Rolen, he’s even tenth-best at his position by bWAR!<br /><br />If there’s something stand-out about third base in this regard, a big reason why it’s especially undervalued in Hall voting, my guess is that doing a lot of different things well seems like the default way to build up an overwhelming amount of value at this position, and it leads to them being more likely to slip through the cracks. <br /><br />For instance, let’s take a look at the players roughly in the tier below Rolen. I went through and looked at the top third basemen by Baseball-Reference WAR, this time using the designations Jay Jaffe uses for JAWS so that each player will only be featured at one position (specifically, at the position where they accumulated the most value in their career).<br /><br />Using those designations, Rolen is tenth. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martied01,martin008edg,martin006edg,martin011edg,martin009edg&search=Edgar+Martinez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Edgar Martinez</a> is eleventh (again, Jaffe doesn’t have a DH designation yet, so Edgar and Molitor both count as third basemen), so we’ll ignore him. The twelfth-through-sixteenth spots for third base are: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nettlgr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Graig Nettles</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellbu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buddy Bell</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerfr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Home Run Baker</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boyerke01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ken Boyer</a>, and the late <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bandosa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sal Bando</a>. Of those five, only Baker is in Cooperstown, an early Veterans Committee pick (he retired in 1922, and thus got overlooked in the initial Hall shuffle). Nettles, Bell, and Bando have combined for six appearances on any Hall ballot, four of them from longtime Yankee Nettles, and all of them from the BBWAA process. None of them has been reconsidered by the VC since then.<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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BBWAA and Veterans Committee, but even that feels misleading; he actually was dropped after five ballots because he failed to reach 5% on any of them (the voting rules were a little different back then). The BBWAA actually reinstated him five years later and he immediately started hitting the 15%-25% range, although he has yet to climb much above that since then (even in his VC appearances). It’s also worth noting that <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santoro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ron Santo</a> (speaking of overlooked third basemen) got this same special treatment following his own one-and-done BBWAA appearance. And while we’re on this subject, when Boyer hit the ballot for the first time in 1975, he was vying to become<b> just the second third baseman elected by the BBWAA, ever</b>. Yes, despite forty years of Hall elections up until that point.<br /><br /><span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matheed01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Eddie Mathews</a> would beat him to the honor in 1978.* <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brooks Robinson</a> would also beat him and Santo to third place in 1983, and then <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schmimi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Schmidt</a> would finally become the fourth third baseman elected by the BBWAA in <i><b>1995</b></i>. So yes, for the first<i><b> six decades</b></i> of the Hall’s existence, only three third baseman won the BBWAA’s approval. I have no idea if the issue was that voters at the time didn’t regard Boyer and Santo as one of the five or six best in their role, or if they did but didn’t think that mattered, even after a century of the sport.<br /><br /><i>*Another fun fact here, though: Mathews himself took five tries to get inducted, despite 12 All-Star selections and 512 home runs, making him the first 500-home run club member to not be a first-ballot pick since <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/foxxji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jimmie Foxx</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ottme01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mel Ott</a>. However, the rules of the Hall were much even more amorphous during their time, with Foxx even appearing on his first ballot prior to his age-28 season. Foxx ended up making it on what would have been his first ballot under our current rules (five years after retirement), while Ott actually made it after just three years of retirement. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/killeha01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Harmon Killebrew</a> would take four tries after that, and since then, every 500 homer player has either been a first-ballot choice or has ties to performance enhancing drugs and remains unelected. So until <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrial01,rodrig042ale,rodrig040ale,rodrig039ale,rodrig031ale,rodrig023ale,rodrig034ale,rodrig021ale&search=Alex+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a> or somebody else finally sneaks into Cooperstown, it looks like Mathews has the record for “longest time for a 500-homer player to be inducted”. I have zero idea what scared voters off for half a decade here, and the only explanation I’ve ever seen is a general “the voters didn’t like Mathews”, which… yeah, I guess they didn’t?</i><br /><br />Anyway, that was a bit of a tangent, but I think it shows just how undervalued the position has been over time. And that has continued until now, even though it has also manifested in new ways in the present day. For example, I’ll see some people justify the exclusion of that quartet (Bando, Bell, Boyer, and Nettles) by saying that none of them is an obviously great player who deserves induction. <br /><br />That kind of just feels too much like circular logic to me, “they aren’t in the Hall because they don’t feel like Hall of Famers, unlike the players in the Hall, who were elected because they feel like Hall of Famers”. And of course, it runs into the issue of how just <i>being </i>in the Hall affects that perception, especially as younger fans who never saw the electees learn about them through secondhand means like Cooperstown. <br /><br />But even outside of those problems: we have the means to evaluate whether players should be elected, beyond just “their general vibe”! There’s context and history we can learn, there are stats we can reference! Even with the most basic numbers that predate most modern analysis, I think you can build fairly compelling Hall arguments for these players, and I think some of them would be even convincing to wider, less stat-y audiences. But those cases were just… never made, for the most part. And I think it gets into the issue I’ve been driving at this whole time: what if none of them “felt” like a Hall of Famer <i>because </i>our intuitive understanding of what makes a Hall of Fame third baseman has been largely wrong? And by focusing on that incorrect idea, they missed out on what were actually fairly compelling and easy-to-understand Hall cases?<br /><br />Like, it’s easy to dismiss the 12th-to-16th-best players as the also-rans who simply “don’t feel” like Hall of Famers, and say that’s why these third basemen aren’t getting elected; there are just too many other players beating them at their own game. But actually, this grouping is faring pretty well in Hall representation at other positions! <br /><br /><br /><b>3B:</b> 1 out of 5 inducted (Nettles, Bell, Baker, Boyer, Bando)<br /><br /><b>1B:</b> 2 of 5 inducted (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murraed02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Eddie Murray</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccovwi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willie McCovey</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgwima01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mark McGwire</a>)<br /><br /> That “2 of 5” feels like it needs the mother of all asterisks. I can’t imagine Cabrera and Votto struggling on the ballot when they become eligible around the end of the decade (barring a PED test failure or something), and McGwire is clearly only a “no” because of steroids. And even if you bumped the active duo, you’d pick up <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a> (who’s a gimmie-pick on next year’s ballot) and actual-HoFer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/becklja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jake Beckley</a> (an 1890s star tapped by the Veterans Committee).<br /><br /><b>2B:</b> 3 of 5 inducted (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roberto Alomar</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/randowi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willie Randolph</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biggicr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Biggio</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=robinja02,robins010jac&search=Jackie+Robinson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jackie Robinson</a>)<br /><br /> Alomar and Biggio obviously made it in off the BBWAA ballot, and are maybe some of the weirder first-ballot misses we’ve ever seen. Robinson did sail in on the first ballot, although he was a special case (and I hadn’t realized how close his election was?). Randolph, meanwhile, is a pure overlooked candidate, going one-and-done in 1998. I’m curious to see how Chase Utley does next year, but I feel confident he won’t be dropped after one year at least (especially after watching his long-time double play partner <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a> just punch his ticket to a third ballot this year). If you want to accommodate for Robinson and Utley’s unique statuses in any way, BBWAA selection <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryne Sandberg</a> is currently 11th (if you move Robinson into the top ten), and VC choices <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hermabi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Herman</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Gordon</a> are right after these five (although both were solid choices who missed peak years and counting stats to World War II).<br /><br /><b>SS:</b> 5 of 5 inducted (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Larkin</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Wallace</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reesepe01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pee Wee Reese</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bankser01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ernie Banks</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cronijo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Cronin</a>)<br /><br /> Our only perfect 5-for-5 of the bunch. Larkin, Banks, and Cronin made it in on the writers’ vote. Wallace needed the VC, but he was an early star who retired in 1918. Reese needed the VC as well, likely in part due to missing time for WWII.<br /> <br /><b>LF:</b> 4 of 5 inducted (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=willibi01,willibi02,willia015bil&search=Billy+Williams&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Williams</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burkeje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jesse Burkett</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheatza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Zack Wheat</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mageesh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sherry Magee</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stargwi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willie Stargell</a>)<br /><br /> Stargell and Williams were writers’ picks. Burkett was an early player (retired in 1905) selected by the Old Timers Committee, a sort of proto-VC, and Wheat was an induction by the Veterans Committee proper. Magee’s case has gone largely nowhere since he retired in 1919, but he has picked up some defenders among researchers in recent years (although that’s yet to translate into VC votes).<br /><br /><b>CF:</b> 2 of 5 inducted (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ashburi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Richie Ashburn</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=hamilbi02,hamilbi01&search=Billy+Hamilton&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Hamilton</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviswi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willie Davis</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmonji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Edmonds</a>)<br /><br /> Another asterisk here, as Jones is obviously <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/scott-rolen-2023-hall-of-fame-election.html">about two or three years away from making this 3 of 5</a>, based on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2023.shtml#all_hof_BBWAA">his most recent results</a>. Hamilton was an 1890s star who the Veterans Committee elected pretty quickly. I had thought that Ashburn was elected by the BBWAA for some reason, but he was a Veterans Committee choice as well. Jim Edmonds dropped off after his first ballot, reaching only 2.5% of the vote, but it was on one of the more packed ballots from the overloaded years following 2013; I wonder how he might have fared in a year that didn’t see him <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2016.shtml">directly competing again 14 (and counting) future Hall of Famers</a>. And Willie Davis <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/02/hall-of-fame-veterans-committee-snubs-part-2.html">might be the best player to never appear on a Hall ballot</a>.<br /><br /><b>RF: </b>3 of 5 inducted (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heilmha01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Harry Heilmann</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gwynnto02,gwynnto01&search=Tony+Gwynn&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tony Gwynn</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/evansdw01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dwight Evans</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithre06.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Reggie Smith</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/winfida01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dave Winfield</a>)<br /><br /> Gwynn and Winfield were obviously first-ballot BBWAA picks, since they reached big milestones. Heilmann was a later BBWAA pick, since he was a star of the 1920s who got overshadowed at the Hall’s opening, but pretty quickly built his momentum as the Hall’s standards became more clear. Evans and Smith are much more overlooked, and fell off the BBWAA ballots after one vote. <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2019/12/recapping-2020-veterans-committee.html">Evans had a strong showing on his VC ballot debut back in 2020</a>, getting two-thirds of the way to induction <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/12/2023-Baseball-Hall-of-Fame-Veterans-Committee-Predictions.html">before being inexplicably overlooked during the 2023 ballot’s nomination process</a>. Smith is a weirder case, given that he split his time between center and right field almost evenly.<br /><br /><br />I know I’m a fairly “Big Hall” type voter and most people wouldn’t agree with me that all of Bando, Bell, Boyer, and Nettles deserve induction. But even setting my preferences aside, it’s at least kind of weird that <i>none </i>of them is in Cooperstown, right? Like, even by accident? Yeah, that quartet doesn’t match up to your <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayswi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Willie Mays</a>es and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Babe Ruths</a> or whatever, but neither does any of the players I’ve listed here, and that didn’t stop two-thirds of them (and counting) from getting elected. We don’t even have the luxury of saying “Well, some of these inductions were just Veterans Committee picks”, because that’s applied to all four of these third basemen for ages now, and it hasn’t even been enough to get three of them on the VC ballot! <br /><br />And when you put them in the proper context, comparing them to the Richie Ashburns and Pee Wee Reeses and Roberto Alomars and Willie Stargells of the Hall, their exclusion looks even stranger. It feels like there’s still a disconnect in how their credentials are discussed, in comparison. For instance, I’ll still see people say “Well <i>of course</i> those four are in the Hall and the four third basemen aren’t!”, a sort of self-fulfilling tautology. And frankly… I don’t see it? Or at least, I think it’s at least as easy to make “traditional” arguments for their cases (that don’t rely on advanced stats like Wins Above Replacement) that are at least comparable. <br /><br />For example, why is Roberto Alomar’s “multi-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner with over 2700 hits, 500 doubles, and 200 homers” basically a first-ballot case, but Buddy Bell’s “multi-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner with over 2500 hits, 400 doubles, and 200 homers” not even worth 2% of the votes? Especially given that Bell is <i>actually </i>one of the best fielders at his position; would him taking four more Gold Gloves and matching Alomar’s (almost certainly inflated) 10 awards have gotten him another 70% of the Hall vote? Is it really that big of a difference maker? Or even another 30-40%? Just getting to stick around on the ballot and make your case feels like it could have swayed some voters.<br /><br />Or take Ken Boyer and Willie Stargell. They both won MVP Awards and were the star of beloved powerhouse teams (the ‘60s Cardinals and ‘70s Pirates). They both had 7 All-Star seasons (although Boyer picked up 11 selections due to four seasons with two All-Star Games). Boyer picked up 2143 hits with a .287 average, while Stargell reached 2232 with a .282 average. The big differences are that Stargell managed almost 200 more home runs (475 to 282), but Boyer was a substantially better fielder at a harder position (five Gold Gloves to zero, +70 Total Zone Runs to -27), one of the ten best ever when he retired and likely still one of the top twenty five decades later.<br /><br />I don’t think I’d argue with anyone who thinks Stargell is better… but do you really think the difference in value between them is so great that Stargell was a first-ballot inductee with 82.4% of the vote while Boyer only topped 25% once in fifteen tries on the BBWAA ballot? Shoot, you can probably include Nettles here too; his average was much worse than Boyer’s or Stargell’s, but he did come much closer to Stargell’s power (390 homers) while being an even better fielder than Boyer. His peak performance on a Hall ballot was one-tenth of Stargell’s.<br /><br />Or you could look at Pee Wee Reese and Sal Bando.* Neither of them hit the big, traditional milestones, and arguably Reese was overlooked by the BBWAA voters as a result; he probably shouldn’t have had to wait for the Veterans Committee to take up his case, even if they did so relatively quickly. But even with the “low” counting stats, being the shortstop and captain of the 1950s Dodgers was enough to keep him on the writers’ ballots and consistently scoring vote totals in the 30s and 40s. At his absolute lowest, Reese was still drawing above 25% of the vote. Meanwhile Bando, as the captain of the chaotic ‘70s A’s dynasty that won three straight World Series (to the Brooklyn Dodgers’ one), rode that fact plus his decent stats to… less than 1% of the vote on one BBWAA ballot, and nothing since. <br /><br /><i>*While I was taking forever trying to get this piece together, Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sal-bando-1944-2023-and-a-missed-date-for-cooperstown/">ended up publishing something similar over at Fangraphs in memory of Bando</a>, who died last month. I would highly recommend it to anyone interested in a more in-depth look!</i><br /><br />Maybe third basemen are just always going to be disadvantaged, given how difficult it is to play the position and still reach 3000 hits or 500 homers compared to doing so while playing first base or the corner outfield. But at the same time, that hasn’t seemed to have been an impossible obstacle for inductees at other positions; they are probably judged a little more harshly than the milestone players, but it also hasn’t been quite this difficult to build cases that appeal to even the least statistically-inclined Hall voter. For some reason, those standards and methods just haven’t carried over to the hot corner, and I don’t really have a good explanation for why other than a general hypothesis of “they don’t appreciate the position’s difficulty”.<br /><br />And what’s more frustrating, I’m just not sure this is going to change any time soon? Like, it’s good to see Rolen finally honored, but again, he’s a top-ten player at his position and it still took a while (and there are still plenty of hold-outs happy to advertise that they don’t understand why Rolen was so good, although they are thankfully less numerous than they used to be). <br /><br />Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/04/veterans-committee-new-rules-2022.html">given the Veterans Committee’s kind of dumb new format</a>, getting Boyer on the ballot again at all will probably be even more difficult than it’s been, never mind jumpstarting his stalled case (we are officially 35 years since the last and only time he topped 25% of a Hall vote). At least he’s still appearing sometimes, though, even if his 2022 and 2015 cases went nowhere; Nettles, Bell, and Bando’s most recent appearances remain 1997, 1995, and 1987.<br /><br />Since we can’t really anticipate any of them seeing Veterans Committee success in the near future, the best benchmark we’ll see over the next decade of whether this level of third basemen is actually getting more appreciation will probably be <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a>, whenever he finally hits the BBWAA ballot (as a reminder, he has a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks for 2023, so we’re already looking at no earlier than the 2029 ballot). <br /><br /><a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2021/05/appreciating-evan-longoria.html">I made an early Hall argument for Longoria back at the start of the 2021 season</a>, and the general outline is still the same a year and a half later. The specific numbers are a little different, less than I would have hoped given Longoria’s injuries the last two seasons, but he’s still generally good when he plays. With a solid 2023, he could reach 2000 hits and 350 homers, which would get him into the top thirty and top eleven for his position, respectively (not to mention that 2000 hits has historically been a huge barrier to the Hall, although that might be starting to change?). Total Zone credits him with 119 runs saved, tenth all-time at the position and 38th all-time. With less than 1 bWAR, he’ll move into 17th among third basemen (by JAWS’s positional rules), and he’s already 18th at the position in JAWS behind Bando and not-really-a-3B <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allendi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-13_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dick Allen</a> (another hopeful future inductee, although he has a much more realistic chance whenever he’s next eligible). <a href="http://www.hallofstats.com/">Hall Rating</a> uses slightly different positional rules, but <a href="http://www.hallofstats.com/position/3b#position">has Longoria sixteenth all-time</a>*, and already above the Hall Standard even before the 2022 season (I don’t believe it’s been updated with 2022 stats yet). <br /><br /><i>*For reference, their positional classifications mark Rolen as the fourteenth Hall of Fame third baseman from the non-Negro Leagues, with Beltre poised to make it fifteen next year.</i><br /><br />But, as I mentioned last time… it’s hard to see Longoria doing well on an actual Hall ballot. Given the changes we’ve seen to the voting body over the last decade or so, I don’t think he’ll be one-and-done… but induction still seems a far way off for a player who only has three All-Star selections (even if he was robbed of another three or four, see my last Longoria article above), and whose case relies on voters recognizing both that a player is an all-time-but-sub-Ozzie-Smith-level defender AND about 20% better than a league average hitter over a decade and a half.<br /><br />But maybe they don’t have to miss all of that. Maybe Scott Rolen’s induction can serve as another step in the process of the Hall improving their understanding and analysis of players. It’s been a long journey, and I think stats like Wins Above Replacement that encompass all elements of a game have been a crucial part in it. But it’s also important to remember that WAR isn’t pulled out of nowhere, it’s built off of understanding the context a player is in. And once you understand that full context, it only gives you a greater appreciation of this class of players, one that has been overlooked relative to their peers. We’ll have to wait and see if any of that actually happens, though, or if this year is just a one-off correction.<br /><br />This will probably be my last article on this year's election unless I come up with another idea, so my next post will probably be my annual Future Hall of Fame post to help bridge the gap between Hall of Fame discussion and the regular season. If you'd like to be notified when those posts start going up, subscribe to Hot Corner Harbor mailing list below!<br /><br /><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form> <br /><p></p>Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-87804539549703976352023-02-05T22:17:00.001-05:002023-02-05T22:17:28.375-05:00Scott Rolen's Hall of Fame Resume, and the Larger Context of Third BaseI’m not sure if it came through in <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/scott-rolen-2023-hall-of-fame-election.html">my discussion of the Hall of Fame election results</a> (or just in general, over my years of writing), but I’m actually a really big fan of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a>! He’s on the short-list for my favorite players of all-time, no worse than third on any given day. He is a pretty big reason this site is called “<b>Hot Corner</b> Harbor”, and I grew up watching his play in awe and wanting to play third base as well as he did.<br /><br /><br />Actually, let’s just put a few more highlight videos here first, for emphasis:<br /><br /><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TZ44m_hdgEA" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><br /><br /><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kD1rb5uW95k" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><br /><br /><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eNOm0ZU557Q" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><br /><br /><br />In the wake of his election, it’s been good to see so many people celebrating a great player that I loved growing up! I’ve also seen some people tie it into how third base has been kind of ignored in Hall of Fame voting, <a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2017/12/third-base-hall-of-fame-chipper-jones-scott-rolen.html">a point I’ve touched on in the past</a> and that I’ve been thinking about again. <br /><br />Of course, there’s also been some discussion from people who can’t appreciate Rolen’s greatness. I wrote up several words reminding everyone of just how strong his case was <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/2023-Hall-of-Fame-Preview-Projection-rolen-helton.html">during the last few days before the announcement, when it looked like he might fall short</a>. Thankfully, I don’t need to use it as a persuasive piece, but I think it could still be a lead-in to another point I wanted to make. If you don’t feel the need to revisit that, feel free to skip, but for anyone who wants to see it again:<br /><br />First, there’s all of the basic, flashy stuff; Rolen is a 7-time All-Star and 8-time Golden Glove winner (fourth-most for third basemen). He managed 2077 hits and 316 homers, as well as 517 doubles (that mark is 52nd all-time). He won a Rookie of the Year Award in 1997 and a World Series in 2006 (I still think he deserved World Series MVP in that one over <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eckstda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Eckstein</a>, with his .421/.476/.737 slash line). If you like Wins Above Replacement, Rolen has 69.9 according to Fangraphs and 70.1 according to Baseball-Reference, totals that are usually indicative of clear Hall of Famers. Of course, I imagine those doubting Rolen’s credentials don’t use WAR quite as much, so I’ll back off from that for now.<br /><br />All of that is really good, even if it doesn’t quite reach the eye-popping factor of 3000 hits or 500 homers (and that really shouldn’t be a case-ender anyway; most Hall of Famers don’t have 3000 hits or 500 homers, that’s part of what makes those groups special). Of course, Rolen’s case only looks better the more context you apply.<br /><form action="https://app.convertkit.com/forms/4833182/subscriptions" class="seva-form formkit-form" data-format="inline" data-options="{"settings":{"after_subscribe":{"action":"message","success_message":"Success! 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<a name='more'></a><br />For example, those 316 homers tie him for fifteenth most among third basemen (here being players who spent >50% of their time at the position); at this point, I’d like to remind you that there are only 15 AL/NL third basemen in Cooperstown right now. Those 2077 hits make the top twenty, the doubles are fifth, and his 122 OPS+ is twentieth (among players with 5000 plate appearances, which of course includes a few active players who will likely see their rate stats drop with age). <br /><br />Except it’s also worth remembering that offense was the weaker half of his case. Sure, Rolen was one of the fifteen or so best hitters at a position with about fifteen members in the Hall, but he did that <b>while also being an all-time fielder with the glove</b>. Like, we all kind of know the Gold Gloves are a joke at this point, but them giving him eight awards wasn’t a fluke! <br /><br />Basically any look at more advanced stats puts him in the conversation for top five all-time at the position. Total Zone Runs puts him sixth with 140 runs saved (that also ties him for 25th <i>all-time, across all positions!</i>). Defensive Runs Saved only dates back to 2003, meaning that it’s missing the first third of his career (and four Golden Glove seasons), but he still ranks tenth all-time and second among third basemen, behind <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a>. Baseball-Reference’s dWAR puts him at sixth all-time for the position, while Fangraphs’ dWAR puts him fifth. <br /><br />And of the other five players in this conversation, few of them could match his bat that we discussed earlier. I don’t think anyone would disagree that he hit better than <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brooks Robinson</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boyercl02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Clete Boyer</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nettlgr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Graig Nettles</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellbu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buddy Bell</a> managed higher career totals in some areas primarily through longevity, while rarely ever matching Rolen’s offense at his peak. As far as two-way third basemen go, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrián Beltré</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schmimi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Schmidt</a> (who usually falls somewhere in the 8-to-12 range with his glove) are basically Rolen’s only peers. <br /><br />So, for anyone wondering how Rolen regularly reaches that “surefire Hall of Famer” mark of 70 WAR, or what makes him one of the ten best third basemen all-time, that is how. By being one of the the five or six best gloves in the history at a tough position <i>and then</i> hitting very well on top of that!<br /><br /><br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;"><The Larger Context of Third Base></h3>Okay, now that that’s out of the way, on to the larger point about what makes a player Hall of Fame worthy, as well as how that intersects with third base as a position.<br /><br />Like, let’s go back to that point I made earlier about Rolen being twentieth in OPS+ at his position. I’ve seen a few people lately comparing Scott Rolen to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lance Berkman</a>, who fell off after one ballot, as a way of saying Rolen isn’t deserving because of Berkman’s better offense, but I think it’s a good case study in looking at players within the context of their position. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2019/11/revisiting-lance-berkmans-hall-of-fame.html">I actually have made an affirmative case for Berkman’s election in the past</a>, but it’s a good case study in remembering where your offense is coming from. His 144 OPS+ would put him just behind Mike Schmidt for best all-time at the position, <i><b>if </b></i>he could play third base. But in the context of first base, he’s basically where Rolen was, at 17th all-time (but with little chance to move up much; most of the players ahead of him are done). <br /><br />Conversely, a Rolen that can’t cut it at third base and has to move across the diamond moves to the back half of the top-70 all-time, alongside guys like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leede02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Derrek Lee</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wertzvi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vic Wertz</a>. Like, it’s good to be able to hit overall, but hitting that well <b>while just sticking at a harder position</b> is much rarer! That’s why Rolen’s case is so much stronger!<br /><br />In fact, let’s look at that idea a bit more, about “sticking at a harder position”. In particular, I want to take a look at the top 20 third basemen by career WAR, specifically Fangraphs’ version, which jumped out at me while doing research for this piece. See, Fangraphs’ positional charts don’t limit players to one position; if they play more than a certain percentage of their games somewhere, they qualify, even if they played more games somewhere else. Which is why the leaderboard for third base look likes this:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKpyJ6FQuvVwWhlQqXPqJ7VYuriEjkhHLzKH5ISOVbvukhTbJyTrgJhMbK6R_80oBcqsFru7VZbUDVF6MkEpBnbD_qC4S7YQfpNYFy2x3SjITN1xeePzAjstbk8f8SfAxm2DeT8erdh9oU75G6tpcW_Miseaqn74Ct4fHB87xNdA1mNPqpLMGR9sQyNw/s505/top203B%20(2).JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="184" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKpyJ6FQuvVwWhlQqXPqJ7VYuriEjkhHLzKH5ISOVbvukhTbJyTrgJhMbK6R_80oBcqsFru7VZbUDVF6MkEpBnbD_qC4S7YQfpNYFy2x3SjITN1xeePzAjstbk8f8SfAxm2DeT8erdh9oU75G6tpcW_Miseaqn74Ct4fHB87xNdA1mNPqpLMGR9sQyNw/w234-h640/top203B%20(2).JPG" width="234" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The top third baseman of all-time is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrial01,rodrig039ale,rodrig040ale,rodrig023ale,rodrig031ale,rodrig042ale,rodrig021ale,rodrig034ale&search=Alex+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a>, who played more games at shortstop than third. Granted, it’s not <i>much </i>more, and calling him a third baseman isn’t out of the question, but it’s weird because you usually see him at shortstop in these types of things when they have to decide on one position or the other. <br /><br />And that type of thing permeates the list. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a> (nearly 1200 games at first base and another 800 at DH and outfield, versus under 700 at third), is eleventh. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Paul Molitor</a> is twelfth, despite spending over 70% of his career elsewhere. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/killeha01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Harmon Killebrew</a> spent just over two-thirds of his career away from the hot corner. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martied01,martin008edg,martin006edg,martin009edg,martin011edg&search=Edgar+Martinez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Edgar Martinez</a> is just over 25% at third (and, you know, the namesake for the league’s DH award). <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allendi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dick Allen</a> (37%) and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tony Perez</a> (27%) also spent more time at first base than across the diamond. Even <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/evansda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Darrell Evans</a> only spent the barest majority of his career here (about 53.6%). Either way, we’re still easily over a third of the top of the leaderboard having more playing time elsewhere!<br /><br />That’s… not really the case at other positions. You’ll get players who moved from one position to another over their careers, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carewro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rod Carew</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yountro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Robin Yount</a>. You’ll get players who split time at corner outfield spots, like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/musiast01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Stan Musial</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Babe Ruth</a>. But even in those cases, they’re still nowhere near a third of the top twenty! First base is probably the closest, but even then it’s still different.<br /><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1T-cXYkqbmeMUJFgMhoCHeYgQ6yZeJu2q9iAkAqZdgQe4dV6_XJ5niJDNuqpCvWxCqOD9q1hvexfcvG3c4NlVMh3ccxJM1no2B9usQC_FLhqr504g8MMj3VLF35pkeZDRVAYVyfmkBETRJsvQTwEkBjk_H-fwyXBh9DRKqx5wGcuByrJH3GX0MU0OaA/s504/top201B%20(2).JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="187" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1T-cXYkqbmeMUJFgMhoCHeYgQ6yZeJu2q9iAkAqZdgQe4dV6_XJ5niJDNuqpCvWxCqOD9q1hvexfcvG3c4NlVMh3ccxJM1no2B9usQC_FLhqr504g8MMj3VLF35pkeZDRVAYVyfmkBETRJsvQTwEkBjk_H-fwyXBh9DRKqx5wGcuByrJH3GX0MU0OaA/w238-h640/top201B%20(2).JPG" width="238" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><br />Like, counting <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=thomafr04,thomafr03&search=Frank+Thomas&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Frank Thomas</a> here in addition to DH doesn’t feel nearly as weird as Molitor or Edgar showing up at third, given that he was more of a 55/45 split between the two (and despite what I suspected, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jim Thome</a> in fact did play more games at first than DH, although it was close). <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rosepe02,rosepe01&search=Pete+Rose&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pete Rose</a> makes as much sense here as anywhere else. And Carew, Musial, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bankser01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ernie Banks</a> did technically spend more time here than any other position, even if they’re best remembered elsewhere; they’re A-Rod/Darrell Evans type cases, at worst. And even after counting all of those, we’re still not up to third base’s number of questionable cases anyway. And again, no other position is even close to this level, let alone third base’s. <br /><br />Maybe people around the game have just been underrating how hard it is to play third base? The number of great players who started there and quickly moved away feels at least a little telling. Maybe it should be regarded more like second base or center field or shortstop? Less difficult sure, but certainly closer to them in complexity than to first or the corner outfield spots. Different enough that you start considering whether a player was a good hitter <i>within the context of their position</i>, rather than just overall.<br /><br />Like, look at the OPS+ rankings for second base; <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roberto Alomar</a> is 21st (among 5000+ PA players), immediately behind <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitalo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lou Whitaker</a>. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryne Sandberg</a> is 24th, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biggicr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Biggio</a> is 30th. A lot of those players had more plate appearances, which dragged down their stats, but even still, their peaks weren’t that far off from Rolen’s. And yet I don’t think most people would argue against the idea that all of them were good offensively. It’s just usually implicitly understood that second base carries with it a different set of expectations when offense comes up. <br /><br />Shoot, people have been making the Hall of Fame case for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kentje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-02-05_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jeff Kent</a>* almost exclusively around the idea that he was an especially great offensively <b>for a second baseman</b>! And he is (although a little overrated by traditional stats), but it’s maybe worth noting that his 123 OPS+ is only a hair above Rolen’s! And that’s not nothing; he does, in fact, rate higher within his position (fourteenth among second basemen). It’s just frustrating that the implicit “Good Hitter at His Position” praise doesn’t extend to third base, even though it really seems like it should.<br /><br /><i>*I still think he goes in on the first Veterans Committee ballot he sees, probably the first one he’s eligible for. And I still wonder how he would have fared on the BBWAA ballot had he debuted at any time other than 2014. The last few years have emphasized how momentum-based these votes are, and trying to build that when you debut on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2014.shtml">a ten-vote ballot that’s already seen fourteen of its candidates enshrined</a> (even before the Bonds/Clemens/Schilling debacle) seems like a Sisyphean task.<br /></i><br />This piece has started to get a little long as I expanded its scope, and I wanted to get this part out now since it is more related to the current events of Scott Rolen and his induction. So congrats again to the newest Hall of Famer, and I hope everyone who was iffier on his induction now sees what made him worthy of Cooperstown. <br /><br />And check back again soon for the second part, where I look at the wider context of third base in the Hall! If you’d liked this article and want to receive an email update when that second part goes up, feel free to subscribe to my new mailing list using the form below! 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Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-41987087915705881722023-01-25T01:37:00.003-05:002023-01-25T01:37:32.261-05:00Scott Rolen Snags a Hall of Fame Plaque, Plus a Breakdown of the Rest of the ResultsThe Hall of Fame announced the results of the BBWAA election on Tuesday. With 76.3% of the vote, third baseman <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a> will be <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2022/12/2023-hall-of-fame-election-fred-mcgriff-veterans-committee.html">joining Veterans Committee selection</a> <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgrifr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fred McGriff</a> on the Cooperstown stage this summer.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkPolrjmghHPv3qX8yPaqyPbCmPJzA9EirX0d04CaRIl_V8UVBQzV58Y4p7fAaKn-yGZWgieBWJ-YCfg5dk6rvTRX0NFnSDXNQZS87pMAqAD3UVDNQnRqxUCGIsuof7hj_PYY4PzFNyjYYIgSSoe2MyAb04jBTgdRlmnHo8fyCIOEAS_bQqgMzBx3CGQ/s881/2023%20Hall%20Voting%20Results.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="881" data-original-width="822" height="588" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkPolrjmghHPv3qX8yPaqyPbCmPJzA9EirX0d04CaRIl_V8UVBQzV58Y4p7fAaKn-yGZWgieBWJ-YCfg5dk6rvTRX0NFnSDXNQZS87pMAqAD3UVDNQnRqxUCGIsuof7hj_PYY4PzFNyjYYIgSSoe2MyAb04jBTgdRlmnHo8fyCIOEAS_bQqgMzBx3CGQ/w598-h640/2023%20Hall%20Voting%20Results.JPG" width="550" /></a></div><br />This is exciting news, for a lot of reasons. First of all, Rolen is a strong selection, and was deserving of induction years ago (2023 was his sixth ballot). He’s easily one of the top ten third baseman of all-time, with a top-fifteen bat and a top-five glove, the kind of two way star at the position only matched by <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schmimi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Schmidt</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adrián Beltré</a>. In fact, “top five at third base” might be underselling his skill with the leather; Total Zone Rating, for instance, puts him twenty-fifth <i>all-time</i> in runs saved, across all positions. Having over 2000 hits, 300 homers, and 500 doubles on top of that is just icing on the cake. <br /><br />Before moving on, feel free to take a minute and review some of Rolen’s defensive highlights:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TZ44m_hdgEA" width="320" youtube-src-id="TZ44m_hdgEA"></iframe></div><br /><br />Beyond just that, he helps bolster Cooperstown at third base, easily the position the Hall is the thinnest at. Rolen is only the eighteenth third baseman to be elected, the fewest at any position besides Designated Hitter, and just the tenth to earn the nod from the BBWAA. And on top of all of that, Scott set a new record; after debuting with just 10.2% of the vote back in 2018, he has now supplanted <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidedu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Duke Snider</a> as the Hall of Famer who had to climb the furthest to gain the writers’ nod (Snider started at 17% and took eleven tries before winning their approval). It’s a good sign of all the ways the voting body has become more willing to re-evaluate players that they’ve initially underestimated. <br /><br />If you were following <a href="http://tracker.fyi">the pre-announcement ballot tracking</a>, you might have seen that things looked a little dicey for Rolen’s chances. He was trending downwards in the last days before the announcement, and it looked like he needed some good luck to make it over the finish line. <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/2023-Hall-of-Fame-Preview-Projection-rolen-helton.html">In my last piece</a>, I noted that he would likely need to reach at least 50% among writers who don’t reveal their vote (a group where he failed to crack even 35% in 2022). Jason Sardell, who’s done some great work forecasting these results over the last few years, <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/1618018127308296192">even had Rolen missing on his final projections</a>.<br /><br />But in the end, Rolen ended up clearing the 75% bar with a little room. Not much (he had 5 votes to spare, the closest election since Iván Rodríguez made it by just 4 votes back in 2017), but that’s better than it looked like he would do for a while, and it seems to indicate that he had healthy support among private voters.<div><br /></div><div><script src="https://f.convertkit.com/ckjs/ck.5.js"></script>
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.formkit-field{-webkit-flex:100 1 auto;-ms-flex:100 1 auto;flex:100 1 auto;}.formkit-form[data-uid="74ac9bdeff"][min-width~="600"] .formkit-fields[data-stacked="false"] .formkit-submit{-webkit-flex:1 1 auto;-ms-flex:1 1 auto;flex:1 1 auto;} </style></form><br /><br />We won’t know the exact numbers of how he did among private voters for a little bit, since some voters will inevitably release their ballots in the coming days and the Hall itself will publish the ballots of anyone who didn’t opt out in early February. However, I’m doing some back-of-the-envelope calculations, and it seems almost certain that Rolen’s percentage among private voters jumped at least 22%. Depending on how he does among late-public voters, he might have even come close to a 25 or 26 point improvement. <br /><br />In that last piece, I noted that players who crack 60% of the vote overall (excluding the obvious outliers like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Clemens</a>) tend to see a noted increase in support among private voters the following year, in a way that wasn’t particularly apparent when they hit, say, 50%. This is especially the case as of late, the further we move from the 2013-era ballot logjam, and I think that Rolen’s election provides more evidence to that idea. <br /><br /><br /><b><u>The Rest of the Ballot<br /></u></b><span><a name='more'></a></span><br />So, with that in mind, let’s move down the ballot. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a> finished second this year, at 72.2% of the vote. That’s just 11 votes shy of induction, a very frustrating place to finish given that he ended up with nearly 79% of the early vote, but also impressive considering it represents a 20-point increase over his 2022 performance. You have to figure he’s a likely 2024 inductee at this point (and even if he isn’t, Helton will have another four years on the ballot after that).<br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a> is the more interesting case to watch. He ended up 27 votes shy, at 68.1%, another big improvement from 2022 (51.0%). Picking up 7% in his final two tries seems doable, but what will be interesting to see is if he can do it in one. Crossing the 60% mark would seem to be a good indicator, at the very least. I’ll be curious to see how he does with late public votes versus private ones once that data comes out; if the latter group especially is low, it could represent an easy bunch of pick-ups next year, if those voters behave similarly to how they did with Rolen (and we’ll of course have another entire season of ballot tracking before we need to consider that anyway; if Wagner is constantly above 80% in the early voting, his performance with the other groups become much less critical). <br /><br />In fourth place, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a> came close to hitting 60% as well, finishing his sixth ballot with 58.1%. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a> also made it over 50%, jumping to 55.0% on his ninth try. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltrán</a> debuted at 46.5%, tying him with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kentje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jeff Kent</a>, who finally aged off the ballot. I imagine that, like McGriff, Kent will make for a popular choice with Veterans Committee voters, and I would not be shocked to see them induct him at their first opportunity (which I believe is slated for 2026 at the moment, although that’s always subject to change).<br /><br />Below them, and in contrast to most of the candidates, Álex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez saw fairly minimal gains, landing at 35.7% and 33.2%, respectively. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Omar Vizquel</a> finally dropped below 20%, the only returning candidate to lose votes this year and the third straight election where he’s lost votes (all of which were following late-2020 reports on serious domestic violence and sexual harassment cases against him).<br /><br />There are actually some interesting notes at the bottom of the ballot this year. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pettian01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andy Pettitte</a> (+6.3), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bobby Abreu</a> (+8.4), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a> (+3.5), <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a> (+5.0), and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Torii Hunter</a> (+1.6) will all be sticking around for next year, with Abreu and Buehrle in particular nearly doubling their 2022 showing. And <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrifr04,rodrifr03&search=Francisco+Rodríguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Francisco Rodríguez</a> joins Beltrán as the only first-ballot players who will return for a second showing. <br /><br /><br /><br /><b><u>Looking Forward<br /></u></b><br />So, where does that leave us for next year? <br /><br />The weak set of first-time candidates this year was a good sign for the backlog, as the big jumps in votes indicate, but that’s not going to be the case in 2024. Adrián Beltré is a surefire first-ballot type and another third baseman to follow Rolen, and he’s headlining a fairly deep class, both factors that indicate spare votes will be harder to find. <br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a> will also be debuting. <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2020/02/future-hall-of-fame-extra-catcher-standards.html">I personally think he’s worthy of the Hall of Fame</a>, but I’m not sure if the BBWAA will induct him immediately. Catcher is also fairly under-represented in the Hall (only ahead of third base), and only two catchers <b>ever </b>have been inducted on their first ballot (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johnny Bench</a> and Iván Rodríguez). Add in that Mauer’s more of a “high-peak” candidate than a “career-totals” one (2123 hits), something that voters haven’t always liked, and he might need two or more tries to make it. <br /><br />But they aren’t the only ones joining. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a> will also be added, another candidate that I think is deserving of votes but who will almost certainly struggle with less-advanced writers. I don’t think he’s going to drop off the ballot, but I also don’t think he’s going to reach Beltrán’s numbers this year, at least not in his first try. <br /><br /><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Wright</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bartolo Colon</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Matt Holliday</a>, and José Bautista might also pick up some votes. I wouldn’t be shocked if any of those four are one-and-done or if they inch past 5% for a second go-around. I think Colon probably has the most upside of them, but Hall voters have been very stingy when it comes to starting pitchers for the last few decades; to paraphrase a comment I left in my last article, I have a hard time seeing why Colon would get a second chance when <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/coneda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">David Cone</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saberbr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bret Saberhagen</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goodedw01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dwight Gooden</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=brownke01,brownke04,brownke03,brown-015kev,brown-013kev&search=Kevin+Brown&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kevin Brown</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tim Lincecum</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Johan Santana</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stiebda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dave Stieb</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oswalro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roy Oswalt</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=leecl02,leecl01&search=Cliff+Lee&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cliff Lee</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jamie Moyer</a> (really, you can do this all day) all went one-and-done. But then again, Buehrle has managed to hang on for at least four years. Maybe we can split the difference on Colon, and he’ll join <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hershor01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Orel Hershiser</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a> in the two-and-through group? We’ll see. <br /><br />So how do the returning candidates slot into this? I think Helton is basically assured, barring any last-minute disasters. I also think Wagner is set up well for 2024; the crowded ballot might hurt his potential for a big gain, but since he only needs about 7% and enters the cycle as the returning runner-up, I think he can pull it off. So, my too-early prediction for next year is that the 2024 class is Beltre, Helton, and Wagner, with Wagner and Mauer the two to watch most closely in the next iteration of the Ballot Tracker. <br /><br />Andruw Jones will be trying to cross the 60% mark (which shouldn’t be hard to do from 58%) and set himself up for induction in either 2025 or 2026. If he pulls that off, he would break Rolen’s record for lowest total for an eventual-BBWAA-inductee, having started on that same 2018 ballot at just 7.3%. <br /><br />After him, I’m kind of shocked Gary Sheffield managed to pick up nearly 15% this election, especially given that he was completely stagnant last year? I don’t think much will come of it, given that he only has one more try and 20% to make up, not even getting into the fact that he hasn’t reached the 66% barrier that seemed to kill Bonds and Clemens’ chances. But if you asked me ten years ago which steroid-linked player would have the best Hall of Fame showing outside of those two, Sheffield probably wouldn’t have been my guess. I can’t even begin to guess whether that will hold up once he gets to the Veterans Committee. <br /><br />Beltrán is another semi-wild card. Voters seem to have reacted negatively to his role in the sign stealing debacle, given that he was being described as a likely Hall of Famer when he retired. However, there’s a wide range of possibilities for what happens next. Stagnating would be rough, but we might also see something like what happened with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roberto Alomar</a>; voters held back to deny him a first-ballot election, but he picked up nearly 17% on his second try. Something like that would land Beltrán around where Jones is now on his second try, with a pretty straightforward road to Cooperstown. Or you might see something like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenkife01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Fergie Jenkins</a> or <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perryga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gaylord Perry</a>, both of whom took 3 tries (with Jenkins picking up ~10% per year and Perry closer to 5%), which would put him somewhere in the 5-to-7-ballot range. Or maybe he even outdoes Alomar, since there are more voters he can flip in year two? That one seems unlikely, but either way, he’ll be one to watch. <br /><br />2025 will be another rough ballot, with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ichiro Suzuki</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">CC Sabathia</a> headlining and a whole bunch of other interesting candidates joining the margins (including <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Dustin Pedroia</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ian Kinsler</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Félix Hernández</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a>, among others). Maybe Andruw can swing an induction by then, but if not, he and any other holdovers (some mix of Mauer/Beltrán/Utley/Sabathia, I’d bet) should have an easier time come 2026, which has an even weaker class of candidates than this year (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a>? <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=braunry02,braunry01&search=Ryan+Braun&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a>?). Expect more clean up at the top of the ballot, plus if any of the players in the 10%-20% range this year (or any of the also-rans from the 2024 and 2025 classes) are still hanging on by then, this will probably be their best opportunity to make some noise. At this point, nothing is impossible.<br /><br />I’m going to stop there because it already feels pretty far out, but if you want to talk about the 2027 ballot in the comments (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-25_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jon Lester</a>), godspeed to you. <br />
</div>Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-9016255524477025232023-01-20T01:01:00.002-05:002023-01-20T01:01:18.748-05:00The Final Countdown to the 2023 Hall of Fame Announcement: How Are Things Shaping Up? We are less than a week from learning the results of the 2023 Hall of Fame election; the official announcement is next Tuesday at 6 PM Eastern Time. Voters have continued revealing their ballots, and the <a href="http://tracker.fyi">Ballot Tracker</a> team has continued tabulating the early releases, so where do we stand now, since the last time I talked about this <a href="https://www.hotcornerharbor.com/2023/01/Scott-Rolen-Hall-of-Fame-voting-2023.html">just over two weeks ago</a>?<br /><br />Well… mostly in the same place. The candidates are basically still in the same order.Their vote percentages are generally close to where they were. And at the top, even when there is minor fluctuation, it’s stable; <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Todd Helton</a> are basically +10% and +22% over where they were in 2022, <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1614812599711076352">moving up and down at basically the same times</a>. <br /><br />So basically, we don’t have that much more information than we did two weeks ago. Ballot reveals have kind of slowed down, and likely won’t pick up again until right before the announcement. At the moment, it’s difficult to imagine Rolen and Helton not finishing pre-release around 80%, which has historically been a good indicator for election. Except that both of them (Rolen in particular) are especially vulnerable to the whims of the remaining unknown ballots, which is why <a href="https://twitter.com/ShutTheDore/status/1614824412624343041">most</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/1615132697265074176">projections</a> have them teetering right around that 75% cutoff point for induction.<div> <br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Year over year charts through 160 ballots for Scott Rolen (at 70.0% through 160 ballots last year, at 80.0% this year), Todd Helton (57.5% last year, 79.4% this year), and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Billy Wagner</a> (48.8% last year, 72.5% this year) <a href="https://t.co/vSqzgUIqP3">pic.twitter.com/vSqzgUIqP3</a></p>— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1614812599711076352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />See, for those of you who didn’t read my last breakdown, one of the ways that we can look at the Hall of Fame voting nowadays is by when we learn of their ballots. Of the 400 or so voters in the BBWAA pool each year, a little over half will reveal who they voted for at any point prior to the results. Another 30% will reveal who they voted for, but not before the official results are revealed, and the remaining just-under-20% will never say. Generally, that’s also the order for how stingy each group of voters is; players will see their overall percentage of yeses decrease from early voters to late voters to private voters.<br /><br />And it’s also what’s making predicting these two so hard; they’re incredibly dependent on late and especially private voters. The late public voters are a little less of an issue; it’s not unreasonable to expect them to generally follow along with the early ones. Helton has had the two finish close together in his four years on the ballot (last year was the biggest gap, with him performing 7.1% better with early voters). <br /><br />
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<br /><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><br />Rolen, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the two groups finish that close, but they are usually at least correlated. In fact, a small sample size disclaimer applies, but his late vote gains each year look like his early vote gains from the year prior (so he’ll gain 10 percent in early voting from Year 1 to Year 2, then 10 percent in late voting from Year 2 to Year 3). By that logic, he should see just over a 10% gain among late voters this year.<br /><br />The private votes don’t generally line up that well, in either case. Neither player has ever gone down among private voters, but both of them have also seen their year-to-year percentages increase anywhere from less than 2% to over 21%. If we’re trying to forecast a full fifth of the vote, that’s a wide window to use, considering we have basically no other information to go off of.<br /><br />Just to help myself visualize what each player is facing, I ended up building an easy calculator, built around combining the different percentages among these groups. We’re assuming that each subset remains at the same percentage of the whole that they were at for simplicity’s sake, but of course that can change slightly if a few private voters abstain or if a number of new voters swell the early ballot rates. I just wanted a quick way to see what the situation looked like.<br /><br />For example, if Scott can manage a 10% increase in each of the three subsets, he lands at 73.10%. Even if you want to bump up his late-public vote to match his early-public rate, he still doesn’t quite make it (74.27%). If you raise his early voter rate to 82.2%, right around the highest that he’s tracked at? That’s still only a 74.79% result.<br /><br />Basically, if you want to see Rolen in Cooperstown this year, he has to come close to 50% among private voters. If you give him good public numbers among both early and late voters, he can make it in while only hitting about 48% on private ballots, but that’s probably as low as he can go. Like I said last time, it’s really rare to see this size of split among private and public voters, but there is still hope. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, Rolen has improved as much as 21% among unrevealed votes; that type of improvement would get him to about 55% and certainly put him over the line. <br /><br />Granted, if our less outgoing voters have something against Rolen’s candidacy specifically, it’ll be an issue to rise that much, but as of right now, I don’t see a reason to jump to that conclusion. Maybe if he stagnates there for another year, but let’s wait for that to happen before we consider that a possibility, let alone state it as a fact. Especially given that we have another confounding variable in the form of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Roger Clemens</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sosasa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Sammy Sosa</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Curt Schilling</a> all leaving the ballot and presumably freeing up a lot of space for votes. <br /><br />One other thing that I wanted to consider was momentum; it actually matters in Hall voting, as some number of voters will be persuaded as their colleagues start voting for a player en masse. It’s a big part of how some candidates will build to 75% over a number of years, really. I looked at some of those players in recent memory, then highlighted the years where the eventual-inductee hit 50% and 60% overall to see if that led to larger gains later.<br /><br />My list here was non-first ballot inductees, so <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkela01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Larry Walker</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martied01,martin008edg,martin006edg,martin011edg,martin009edg&search=Edgar+Martinez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Edgar Martinez</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mussimi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Mussina</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Trevor Hoffman</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Jeff Bagwell</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raineti01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Tim Raines</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piazzmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Mike Piazza</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biggicr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Craig Biggio</a>. Obviously, Rolen looks more like some of these players than others, but we already don’t have a large data set to go off of, so I kept all of them. <br /><br />There are a lot of asterisks here that make it difficult to draw any hard and fast conclusions. For instance, the 2013 ballot (and the few after it) were crowded in a way that made it harder to pick up votes, which is fundamentally just not going to be an issue this year. And the pool of total voters has shrunk over that time, as the BBWAA cleaned its rank of inactive writers. <a href="http://tracker.fyi">Ryan Thibodaux’s ballot tracker</a> was only started in 2013, so I wasn’t always able to separate out late revealed ballots; seasons prior to that just had private and public votes, with no need to differentiate between pre- and post-announcement votes. Raines, Walker, and Martinez all faced additional haste in their cases, being that it took them the full ten times to be elected (Rolen is currently only on attempt six).<br /><br />With all of that said… There were some things I noticed. Most prominently, not every candidate saw a ton of private voters convert to their cause after they passed the 50% mark (the situation Rolen found himself in last year). Some of them did, but not all. However, hitting the 60% mark pretty frequently preceded a big jump among private ballots. This has especially held true the further away from the 2013-15 extreme logjam you get. Martinez, Bagwell, and Raines each flipped over 20% (as did Walker, who only passed 60% on his final ballot), Mussina gained ~14%, and even Guerrero went up nearly 17.5% despite starting at an already-overwhelming 71.1 %. <br /><br />It will also be interesting to see how Helton plays out in comparison; sure, he only hit the 50% mark overall last year, rather than the 60% one. But that doesn’t necessarily rule out the chance of a jump among the group, either; we are dealing with a small and inconsistent data set after all, plus there’s all that freed-up ballot space. Another X-factor here is that Helton <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1615744202255798272">is already posting one of the biggest single-year increases since ballot tracking began</a>, sitting at +28 net votes; if that carries through to late voters, there’s even a chance he passes Rolen, given that he finished about 7 points better than the third baseman with private voters last year. <br />
<br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Please welcome Todd Helton to the All-TIme (Tracker Era) Pre-Results Announcement Net Gained Vote Leaderboard <a href="https://t.co/E8A7dGEFTo">pic.twitter.com/E8A7dGEFTo</a></p>— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1615744202255798272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />Of course, it might also indicate that he’s just already flipped the easiest pick-ups among late and secret ballots, and he’ll struggle this year (before picking up more votes next year after he inevitably cruises past 60% overall on this ballot). Plus, we don’t know for sure that the early vote will correlate to the other two groups; I think they’ll all increase a decent amount, but we definitely can’t count on historic gains with both of them. Either way, his case looks a lot more standard than Rolen’s given his more even distribution, and his chances of making it in this year aren’t out the window yet (not even getting into that he has five more tries after 2023). And if he does pull off that 22% increase among all of them? It gets him over 74% overall, just a smidge short for next year.<br /><br />Billy Wagner might also prove an interesting case. He also only hit the 50% mark last season, but he has a number of things in his favor: the aforementioned emptier ballot; the fact that he’s also flipping a lot of former-nos (he’s just behind Helton, at +26) and is already trending over 70% on early voting; the fact that he actually did better with post-announcement votes than early voters last year; the fact that closers have traditionally done pretty well among private voters… I don’t think this is his year, but I think it’s basically guaranteed he passes the 60% overall mark this year, with an outside chance at passing 70%. And while he has fewer chances left after 2023 than Helton, picking up 10% of the vote in 2 years while everyone ahead of you gets voted in is not a bad place for a Hall of Fame candidate to be.<br /><br />After them are <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Sheffield</a>, and while their cases are interesting, this article has run pretty long and I can’t imagine either of them passing the top three, so we’ll put their discussion on hold until we have results next week. Sixth place <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.baseball-reference.com&utm_campaign=2023-01-20_br" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Carlos Beltrán</a> is probably the more interesting one, given that he’s a unique case on his first ballot and we have even more unknowns. A 56.3% rate among early voters is not a bad place to be, but we’ll see if late and private voters are harsher or more lenient towards him, and by how much. Either way, even in a worst-case scenario, it’ll be hard for him to drop below 40% overall, and that’s not a bad place to be your first time around.<br /><br />For as slow as the last few weeks have been, things should pick up again before Tuesday. As we get closer to the big day, ballot drops should resume, so we might get a lot of new information leading up to the big moment of truth. I can’t guarantee that I’ll have the time to write something else before then, but hopefully, I’ve laid out enough of the possibilities that you’ll be able to follow along yourself as more news comes in. <br /></div>
Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.com1